Cloud Computing Vision or Reality (Slightly Shorter)

19-01-2012

Your business technologists. Powering progress
Carlos Veira Lorenzo

The Context…
Conditions of too much uncertainty

▶Buzzword + hype
– own convenience (even us)

▶Cloud is young and
complex concept
– “lack” of history
– it is still changing

▶Markets = non-additive
ecosystems
– dynamic, complex and interrelated
– credible/workable comparisons?
– everyone claims to be a “leader”

2 Carlos Veira Lorenzo

Our journey …

The Decomposing Looking Inside
Foundations Adoption Forward Technology

http://www.flickr.com/photos/esparta/4111703709/


The Foundations » Definition
What it IS Cloud Computing

“The Transition of the
IT Industry from a
Product-based to a
Service-based Economy”
Source: “How Cloud Vendors lie to you and How they steal your money”
4 Carlos Veira Lorenzo Simon Wardley. IPExpo, London. Oct 13, 2009.
http://bit.ly/y2SCoi

What it IS NOT Cloud Computing

“The Transition of the
IT Industry from a
Product-based to a
▶ “IaaS”, “PaaS” or “SaaS”
Service-based Economy”
▶ Virtualization + Data Center Automation
▶ Rebranding what we currently do
▶ Outsourcing

Essential Characteristics

Market
Competition Economies of Scale
Automation
Rapid Provisioning Economy
Productivity Built-to-Stock Pay-per-use

Commodities Infraestructure Scale-Out
Components
Resource-Pools Architecture
Agility Security for Failure’ Convergence
Multi-Tenancy
Delivery
Simplicity On-Demand
‘Designed

Elasticity Self-Service

The Foundations » Commoditization
It is the Life Cycle of any Object and/or Business Activity

Source: http://web.me.com/swardley/Site/BP180211Cycle.jpg
Ubiquity

Utilities

Commodity

Product Services

Custom Built
Innovation
Certainty


Examples » The Journalism

Twitter
Ubiquity

Blogs
Television
Radio

Printed Press

Towncrier Certainty


Examples » The CRM

SalesForce.com (2002)
Ubiquity

Siebel (1994)

Marketing Databases (80s)
Customer Lists (80s) Certainty


Examples » The IT Infrastructure

Amazon EC2
Ubiquity

AtosSphere
Commoditized HW

IBM 650 (1954)

LEO (1949)
Z3 (1941) Certainty


… driven by market competition …

Ubiquity++
Ubiquity

Demand for ”New Stuff”
Demand Competition

Funcionality++

Improvements on “Current Stuff”
Offer Competition Certainty


… wich splits markets among Leaders and Followers …

‘Competitors’
Ubiquity

Demand for ”New Stuff”
Demand Competition

Competitive
Disadvantage
‘We’

Improvements on “Current Stuff”
Offer Competition Certainty


… so that we don’t really have a choice …

‘Competitors’
Ubiquity

… but keep up
with changes…
‘Red Queen Hypothesis’
Leigh Van Valen (1973)
‘We’

Certainty


… but fosters Innovation through Creative Destruction & Componentization

Ubiquity

Enables & Accelerates
Creative Destruction
Joseph Schumpeter, 1942
Componentization
Herbert Simon, 1973

Certainty


The Innovation Cycle: examples » outside.in

“… Steven Johnson
Ubiquity

launched outside.in
with 60K $ from a
private investor … It
would have costed
50M $ just
5 years before …”
What Would Google Do?
Jeff Jarvis (2009)
Creative Destruction
Componentization

Certainty


The Innovation Cycle: examples » the rise of Search Engines …

National Electrical Grid
Ubiquity

Internet
Commoditized HW

Search Engines Certainty


It changes consumption expectations …

Ubiquity

+ Efficiency
+ Consumption < Cost/Unit
+ Units Consummed
> Global Expenditure
“Technological progress that
increases the efficiency with
which a resource is used tends to
increase the rate of consumption
of that resource”
The ‘Jevons Paradox’
William Stanley Jevons (1865)

Certainty


… changing our current structural limits too …
Importance

Current IT Limits

Unmet
Demand

Projects


IT becomes a “Cost of doing Business”, rather than a “Strategic Asset”
“… there is no direct relation

Ubiquity

between spending on computers,
profits or productivity”
The Business Value of Computers Volume Market
Paul Strassmann (1990)
http://www.infoeconomics.com/business-value.php
“... as they become ubiquitous -
they become commodity inputs.
From a strategic standpoint, they
become invisible; they no longer
Value Market matter”
IT Doesn’t Matter
Nicholas Carr (2003)
http://www.nicholasgcarr.com/articles/matter.html

Certainty


In fact, Cloud Computing is about Balancing Risks and Opportunities …

Commoditization

Economies of Scale
Decision
Transition

Confusion
Outsourcing

Suitability

Governance
Pay per Use • Management, Leadership, Control
Competence

Focus on Core Confidence

Cautivity
Speed Security

Innovation Transparency Strategic Control


… but just remember …

‘Competitors’
Ubiquity

… we don’t
really have a
choice but keep
up with
‘We’
changes…
‘Red Queen Hypothesis’
Leigh Van Valen (1973)

Certainty


Market Environment » General Outlook
The same way the Transport Industry delivers people and “things” …

Private vs. Public

Car Shuttle Bus Plane
“Price vs. Features” (Flexibility / Agility / Security)


… the IT Industry will do it too …

Private vs. Public

Traditional IT/ Hosted Community IaaS/PaaS/
Private Cloud VPC* Cloud SaaS
“Price vs. Features” (Flexibility / Agility / Security)

* VPC: Virtual Private Cloud

… though we are still in the early stages of adoption …

Private Hosted Community XaaS
Cloud VPC Cloud


Adoption is a complex, multidimensional phenomenon …

Cloud VPC Cloud
Market Segment / Business Activity / Service Type

Customer/Company Profile

Country(s)/Location(s)


… and every Business has its own Technology Mix …

Cloud VPC Cloud
Company B

Company D

Company D
Company C

Company B

Company C

Company D

Company B

Company C

Company B

Company C

Company D
Company A

Company A
Company A

Company A

… evolving with time, in line with each Business Strategy (hopefully)

Cloud VPC Cloud

Company D
Company B

Company C

Company D

Company B

Company C

Company D

Company B

Company C

Company B

Company C

Company D
Company A
Company A

Company A

Company A

... so, there is room for everything!...

The same way IT is an heterogeneous
environment today …
… our experience with Cloud Services is
and will be increasingly Hybrid!
… what we don’t know is the internal
composition for our own context/market

http://www.flickr.com/photos/evelynishere/3327074778/sizes/l/in/photostream/


Market Environment » Decomposing Adoption
Projection exercise » Company Size, Delivery Type & Adoption Rate
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
SaaS Public
Mobility
Q Verticals

PaaS Public
M SaaS Q
Private
L PaaS M Q
IaaS Public
Projects
Q PoCs
SaaS/PaaS
Verticals M Q
L Capacity
Verticals, VDI
M Q
Private

Q DCiaB

Virt2IaaS
DCiaB, VDI M Q
L Verticals M Q


… but cross-service interactions can accelerate adoption » Look-out!
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
SaaS Public

PaaS Public

Private

Third Parties can also start activities in the
IaaS Public
Cloud because of interactions with you!

Private


… but uncertainty is everywhere » non linear behavior + high deviation
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
SaaS Public

PaaS Public

Private

IaaS Public

Private


Bottom line: talking about “Cloud Adoption” is meaningless
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
SaaS Public

PaaS Public

“There are no diseases, but patients”
Private

IaaS Public
Analyze and speak about your own
context/market: strategically & tactically

Private


Market Environment » Looking forward
The Cloud is a Building Block of the Future » Gartner
http://cloudcomputing.sys-con.com/node/1939920

5 year projection … 10 year projection …


The Cloud is a Building Block of the Future » Gartner
http://cloudcomputing.sys-con.com/node/1939920

Mobility B2C B2B
Analytics NFC
Business Intelligence
Big Data Internet of Things
BYOC M2M
5 year projection … 10 year projection …


The Cloud is a Building Block of the Future » Atos LookOut Radars

http://lookout.atosconsulting.com/radars/


The Cloud is a Building Block of the Future » Atos LookOut Radars

Smart Objects
Wearable Computing
Context-Aware
Crowdsourcing Zero Tolerance
Robotics
Ubiquitous Connectivity
Digitally Connected Society
http://lookout.atosconsulting.com/radars/


IT Industry growth model » Less “Bodies” = Services++ & Technology++

Cloud Computing

Outsourcing / Services

Professional Services

Time


… growth in a “systemic” crisis context … are you kidding me?

Cloud Service Delivery can provide the
cost efficiencies that we all need
But!: we also need have to get
ready for a post-crisis context

http://www.flickr.com/photos/artemuestra/2941650098/sizes/m/in/photostream/


… just do things differently to obtain better results (hopefully)

Not “IT Surgeons” any more!
Let’s embrace the Power Shovel!
A different mindset can make the “magic” happen

http://www.flickr.com/photos/double-m2/4694962578/sizes/l/in/photostream/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mad_house_photography/4411839186/sizes/l/in/photostream/


Technology » Market roles
The Cloud Computing “Sphere”

Consumers

Service Technology
Providers Providers

System
Integrators

Consumers » Substantially different? Not really … You already (should) do it

… they get the benefits:
simplicity, agility, speed & cost effectiveness
… but maturity will always be our duty: SLA’s,
Security, Automation, Governance, …
… not a problem, just an opportunity!

http://www.flickr.com/photos/vgb-studios/6605427961/sizes/l/in/photostream/


Let’s talk about the details: let’s talk about Technology ;-)

Service Providers http://www.flickr.com/photos/vgb-studios/6605420695/sizes/l/in/photostream/

They also have to know!

System Integrators http://www.flickr.com/photos/vgb-studios/6605408553/sizes/l/in/photostream/

Technology Providers http://www.flickr.com/photos/vgb-studios/6605437513/sizes/l/in/photostream/


Technology » A Technical Architecture Perspective
It’s Services what drive Designs, not the opposite » EA won’t disappear

Cloud Architecture Cloud(Enterprise Architecture)
RAIN* Design Containerized Design
Scale-out Unchanged Application Designs
Designed for Failure at the Application Level Underlying scale-out Infrastructure
Stack of Commodity Components

vApp

vApp

vApp
Presentation Presentation Presentation

Cloud Service Application Application Application

Persistence Persistence Persistence
vNode vNode vNode vNode

Cloud Infrastructure Services

Containerized Design
SSO* + Integrated BSS* & OSS*
EA* Fabric Computing
Layered Design
Limited Scale-out
Designed for Failure at the Infrastructure Level

* RAIN: Redundant Array of Inexpensive Nodes
43 Carlos Veira Lorenzo * EA: Enterprise Architecture
* SSO: Single Sign-On
* OSS: Operational Support Services
* BSS: Business Support Services

Different worlds … different Business Strategies


▲Cheap Technologies ▼Costly!
– Commodity DC* + HW + OSS* – Enterprise DC* + HW + COTS* Layers
– Increasingly bigger with Time & Scale!
▶Ad-hoc Applications &
▲IT Investment Protection
Infrastructure – Skills + Engineering Patterns & Practices
– Skilled Teams + New/Evolved Processes – Virtualization + New/Evolved Processes
– “DevOps”: boundaries gets blurred
▶Infrastructure-based
▲Service-based Automation Automation
– Infrastructure semantics can be ignored
– Infrastructure semantics matter
– Business-oriented semantics!
– Infrastructure-oriented semantics
– Virtualization silos

* OSS: Open Source Software
44 Carlos Veira Lorenzo * COTS: Commercial Of The Shelf
* DC: Data Cener

Different worlds … different Business Strategies


▲Commodities don’t care ▼IaaS don’t care about
about Feature Feature Differentiation on
Differentiation COTS
– Commodity DC + HW + OSS – Multivendor IaaS “standardize” APIs on
commonalities; (i.e: OpenStack)

Why invest in “Products” for “Features”
that we will never use?


The World is not static » Enterprise Apps “consume” new Tech “on Upgrade”

EA Solutions will, eventually, became SaaS

EA
Layered Design
Technology Builders


Lock-in Risks not structurally “differential”: the ecosystem is just bigger

IaaS SaaS/BPaaS
Infrastructure Service/Application
▶ Product ▶ Vertical Industry
▶ Standard Behaviors Information
▶
Not everything is equally Architecture
Transports
risky! ▶ Data
Brokers/Exchangers

▶ Infrastructure
Structural
▶ Mix of Technology
Formats ▶ Code

-
Divide and Conquer!
Semantics

▶ Web Services
Risk
and Labor

▶ Patterns
▶ Product
Settings
▶ Information
Schemas ▶ Labor
Intensive
+
▶ Hard-coded
▶ Technology
Intensive
Map ▶ Scripts
Mappings
▶ Infrastructure ▶ Semantic ▶ Ad-hoc Data
Products/Services Mappings Transformations

Managed Services Systems Integration
“World of Products” “World of Code”


Lock-in Risks not structurally “differential”: the ecosystem is just bigger

It doesn’t exist a clearly “Functional Frontier” for
each Technology Domain!

▶ Workflow & Process
▶ Element Automation
▶ BPM*
Management
“Orchestration”
* BPM: Business Process Management

Lock-in risks are not structurally “differential”: the ecosystem is just bigger

An Appliance Strategy can simplify EA
Every component evolves
and changes with time!

CSA* EA
Legacy Systems
* CSA: Client/Server Architecture


http://thinkinbig.org/index.php/2011/05/thinking-about-cloud-strategy/

http://blogs.the451group.com/information_management/2011/04/15/nosql-newsql-and-beyond/


http://thinkinbig.org/index.php/2011/05/thinking-about-cloud-strategy/

» Explosion of Data Persistence Services
» Massive scale-out/elastic semantics
Mitigation: OSS*; Engineering patterns;
Technology ubiquity degree; vendor selection

http://blogs.the451group.com/information_management/2011/04/15/nosql-newsql-and-beyond/


Subsystem Map for Hybrid, Multi-Cloud, and Multi-Technology Environment

Cloud Service/Fabric Controller

VMWare Microsoft Citrix RedHat SalesForce
Amazon
• vCloud • System Center • XenDesktop • RHEV NetSuite
• vSphere • Hyper-V • XenServer • KVM/SPICE
OpenStack RackSpace Traditional IT
SAP
• vFabric • Azure • Cloud.com • OpenShift …
…

ESB*/EAI*

Business Support Services
SAL*
SAL* SAL* SAL* SAL* SAL* SAL* SAL*
Accounting
Service • Payables
Ordering Pricing Rating Billing Metering Entitlement
Catalog • Receivables
• Clearing

Operational Support Services
SAL* SAL* SAL*
Service SAL* SAL* SAL* SAL* SAL* SAL*
Desk
Service Capacity & Provisioning Service
Self-Service • Incidents Configuration Monitoring Performance Licensing & LCM
Portal Automation Level
• Problems
• API • Changes

* SAL: Service Abstraction/Adaptation Layer
52 Carlos Veira Lorenzo * ESB: Enterprise Service Bus
* EAI: Enterprise Application Integration

It is a (complex) Cloud Ecosystem has his own Life Cycle …


Amazon
SAP
…

ESB*/EAI*

SAL* SAL* SAL* … Evolves SAL* time asynchronously !
SAL* with SAL* SAL*
SAL*
Accounting
Service • Payables
Ordering Pricing Rating Billing Metering Entitlement
Catalog • Receivables
• Clearing

SAL* SAL* SAL*
Service SAL* SAL* SAL* SAL* SAL* SAL*
Desk
• Problems
• API • Changes

* SAL: Service Abstraction/Adaptation Layer
53 Carlos Veira Lorenzo * ESB: Enterprise Service Bus
* EAI: Enterprise Application Integration

… fortunately, there are different Priorities, Risks, Efforts & Maturity


Amazon
SAP
…

Changes with every Customer and Service Provider! …
SAL SAL SAL SAL SAL SAL SAL
SAL
Accounting
Service
Catalog
Ordering … There is no single or right answer!
Pricing Rating Billing Metering Entitlement • Payables
• Receivables
• Clearing

SAL SAL SAL
Service SAL SAL SAL SAL SAL SAL
Desk
• Problems
• API • Changes


Customer Requirements are/should be a “World of Terms & Conditions”

The risk of new customer-based silos
is very real … Customer N
Customer A

Difficult to achieve standardization, Service
Provider
industrialization and further Innovation … Customer B

…not a “WorldCustomer C
of RFPs*”!

* RFP: Request for Proposal

Opening to a wider landscape » A complex ecosystem of federated services

▶ A federation of live components
▶ A (eco)system by itself
▶ Asynchronous & chaotic behavior
▶ Complex & heterogeneous in nature

Complexity evolves
Asynchronous with time!


The asynchronous “ocean” of Cloud orchestration complexity …

Countries/Regions (R)

Potential Complexity = C * R * S

Customers (C) Service Providers (S)

http://www.flickr.com/photos/smemon/5983673322/sizes/o/in/photostream/


… it is, actually, a multi-level mesh …

 





… it is, actually, a multi-level mesh …

 

Business transparency is key!




… and a multi-domain one …

Orchestration
Orchestration Domain
Domain It has impact on contracts, customer
expectations and UX*!

Orchestration
Choreography Domain
Domain

* UX: User eXperience

… fortunately, not every relationship matters the same
▶ Consolidated Command & Control + Read-only Billing
▶ Infrastructure Semantics Public
Private
IaaS

▶ Infrastructure Semantics
▶ Unified Service Desk Experience ▶ Unified Read-only Risk/Audit Dashboard
▶ Unified Read-only Service Dashboard
▶ C&C* Run-time Advisor*** ▶ Service Benchmarking
Hybrid
▶ Unified Billing (?)
▶ Infrastructure Semantics
Prioritization + read-only aggregation
PaaS

▶ Infrastructure + Object Semantics
▶ Unified Read-only Service Dashboard ▶ Unified Read-only Business Dashboard**
▶ Unified Read-only Risk/Audit Dashboard
▶ Consolidated Command & Control for certain Application Domains
SaaS/BPaa

▶ Consolidated Read-only Billing
▶ Service Semantics
▶ Consolidated C&C* for more App Domains
Now!
S

▶ Unified Read-only Service Dashboard ▶ Unified Read-only Business Dashboard**
▶ Unified Read-only Risk/Audit Dashboard
* C&C: Command & Control
61 Carlos Veira Lorenzo ** Requires Application Instrumentation + Integration
*** Requires Run-time Analytics

Let’s recap!

http://www.flickr.com/photos/duncanh1/5471899402/sizes/l/in/photostream/


Cloud Computing = Product-based to a
Service-based Economy
Cloud Computing follows the “standard”
Innovation Lifecycle

Be prepared for post-crisis context and cloud
computing can help in that turn
With cloud, consumers get all benefits but maturity
will be always their duty
Lock-in risks not structurally “different” just the
IT eco-system is bigger
The risk of new customer-based silos is very
real and can block innovation
http://www.flickr.com/photos/duncanh1/5471899402/sizes/l/in/photostream/


Thanks

For more information please contact:
carlos.veira@atos.net
twitter: @cveira
+34 695 671 417

Atos Spain S.A.
Albarracín 25
20037, Madrid
www.atos.net
http://www.flickr.com/photos/granpapa/299317857/sizes/l/in/photostream/

Atos, the Atos logo, Atos Consulting, Atos Worldline, Atos Sphere, Atos Cloud and Atos WorldGrid
are registered trademarks of Atos SA. July 2011
© 2011 Atos. Confidential information owned by Atos, to be used by the recipient only. This document, or any part of it,
may not be reproduced, copied, circulated and/or distributed nor quoted without prior written approval from Atos.

Your business technologists. Powering progress

Cloud Computing Vision or Reality (Slightly Shorter)

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