Marketers as speculators: Are we to blame for a social media bubble

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My presentation from NXNEi June 18, 2011 where I looked at the bubble marketers have created around social media.

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  • speculation is a financial action that does not promise safety of the initial investment along with the return on the principal sumSpeculation can also cause prices to deviate from their intrinsic value if speculators trade on misinformation, or if they are just plain wrong. This creates a positive feedback loop in which prices rise dramatically above the underlying value or worth of the items. This is known as an economic bubble.
  • Prices – Cost
  • Prices – Cost
  • Lets look at that value that was affected by the hype bubble
  • Functional value assists in the breaking of functional fixedness, assists in helping to reframe a concept. This is the value of the investmentLets talk about valueTake a step behind the numbers, at the causal relationship between our activity and the state of mind for most clients Two types of value to a client Financial value – ROIExecutional value I want to focus on executional value
  • So why did that happen
  • An explosion of touchpoints
  • An explosion of new touchpoints and tactics, new consumer behaviour
  • The value of getting into it, being awesome.
  • Forrester and eMarketer don’t helpA little bit of information is very dangerous
  • Drastic claims that far outreached the truth and were far too extreme
  • Quotes that confuse more than clarify
  • Comments that didn’t help in the process
  • Quotes that confuse more than clarify
  • Quotes that confuse more than clarify
  • Quotes that confuse more than clarify
  • Quotes that confuse more than clarify
  • Quotes that confuse more than clarify
  • Suddenly we were scrambling
  • So what did we do? Default to old habits- media, incentives….
  • Just bigger call centers
  • But foremost we created an expectation and comprehension gap
  • However we see lines like this
  • Prices – Cost
  • Prices – Cost
  • Bubble
  • Taking stock and doing a quick survey. What are we left with?
  • Where was the burden of proof?
  • Created a structure of meaning that was at odds with how we wanted people to think of the challenges
  • Functional fixedness – we did not provide the new functional value to change the fixedness
  • Real challenges
  • Never be at the bottom of the funnel
  • True engagement levels are low
  • Penetration into the mainstream is misleading
  • No standard in measurement makes it hard to quantify value
  • Commercialism transformed community into ‘what’s in it for me’
  • Genuine identities are difficult to identify
  • Facebook monopoly, is that all that exists
  • Clients see it Not as a dialog, but a negotiation
  • Continuity vs asynchronous
  • Planning and display for a mutable ecosystem
  • Continuity of an individual
  • Source vs motivation disconnectFraming a consumer based on entry as opposed to motivation
  • Earned vs paid vs owned
  • Time scale
  • If you build it, they probably wont come
  • Prices – Cost
  • Echo chamber is the self feeding cycle of a bubble
  • Get off Twitter and Facebook as a professional activity
  • Marketers as speculators: Are we to blame for a social media bubble

    1. 1. Marketers as speculators<br />NXNEi<br />June 18, 2011<br />V2.1_<br />
    2. 2. Scott Suthren<br />@cuthbertsteel<br />Director, Digital Strategy at Publicis Modem Toronto_<br />
    3. 3. It is the arrogance of every age to believe that yesterday was calm.<br />Tom Peters, 1997_<br />
    4. 4. Pepsi Refresh<br />Fiesta Movement<br />
    5. 5. Financial action that does not promise safety of the investment_<br />Source: Wikipedia<br />Flickr: respres<br />
    6. 6. Speculation can also cause prices to deviate from their intrinsic value if speculators trade on misinformation, or if they are just plain wrong. This creates a positive feedback loop in which prices rise dramatically above the underlying value or worth of the items. This is known as an economic bubble_<br />Source: Wikipedia<br />
    7. 7. Cost is greater than value_<br />
    8. 8. Let’s establish what value is_<br />Flickr: iriskh<br />
    9. 9. Two types of value: financial and functional <br />Flickr: boklm<br />
    10. 10. 1. Understanding_<br />Flickr: MrB-MMX<br />
    11. 11. 2. Effectiveness_<br />Flickr: marfis75<br />
    12. 12. 3. Integration_<br />Flickr: temari 09<br />
    13. 13. What happened?_<br />Flickr: Veronique Debord<br />
    14. 14. Faced with many new touchpoints_<br />Flickr: niezwyciezony<br />
    15. 15. Faced with many new consumer behaviours_<br />Flickr: hanspoldoja<br />
    16. 16. Tools and tech without the language to properly describe it <br />We were without the language to describe it_<br />Flickr: sammy0716<br />
    17. 17. In our rush to get there we focused on the wrong value_<br />Flickr: RageshVasudevan<br />
    18. 18. Forrester and others adding simplified directives_ <br />Flickr: Guerrilla Futures<br />
    19. 19. Statements that made claims rather than clarify_<br />Flickr: Tim & Selena Middleton<br />
    20. 20. “How can you squander even one more day not taking advantage of the greatest shifts of our generation? How dare you settle for less when the world has made it so easy for you to be remarkable?”<br />Seth Godin_<br />
    21. 21. “A brand is no longer what we tell the consumer it is – it is what consumers tell each other it is.”<br />Scott Cook_<br />
    22. 22. “The difference between PR and social media is that PR is about positioning, and social media is about becoming, being and improving.”<br />Chris Brogan_<br />
    23. 23. “CRM is dead, long live social CRM”<br />Graham Hill_<br />
    24. 24. Social Media marketing is about brands acting, well, social. Which means they need to show up to the party with a nice bottle of wine, if that’s what the party calls for. They need to come ready to have a dialog, and add value to the event.<br />John Battelle_<br />
    25. 25. “You can’t tiptoe into social media. You have to jump into the pool. People have a natural fear of it. But the scary part is not being there. Your customer is already there.”<br />Dave Saunders_<br />
    26. 26. “We’re living at a time when attention is the new currency. Those who insert themselves into as many channels as possible look set to capture the most value.”<br />Pete Cashmore_<br />
    27. 27. We were faced with something we could barely control_<br />Flickr: jutta @ flickr<br />
    28. 28. We defaulted to old habits to backfill engagement_<br />Flickr: khawkins04<br />
    29. 29. We created really good incentive distribution networks_<br />Flickr: urbanwoochuck<br />
    30. 30. We created really good call center extensions_<br />Flickr: emma.maria<br />
    31. 31. Not surprisingly, we created a market_<br />Flickr: Borya<br />
    32. 32. Unfortunately, we created an expectation and comprehension gap_<br />Flickr: *pascal*<br />
    33. 33. “I don’t know what to do, but I know I have to be there”_<br />Flickr: emdot<br />
    34. 34. Value = functional <br />
    35. 35. Cost is greater than value_<br />
    36. 36. A bubble_<br />Flickr: rhettmaxwell<br />
    37. 37. What have we wrought?_<br />Flickr: hans s<br />
    38. 38. Where was the burden of proof?<br />Where did the burden of proof lie?_<br />Flickr: bazylek100<br />
    39. 39. Framing problem<br />Framing problem_<br />Flickr: Leonski<br />
    40. 40. Functional fixedness_<br />Flickr: hmboo<br />
    41. 41. We now have real challenges as a result of the speculation_<br />Flickr: US Army Africa<br />
    42. 42. 1. Confusion around 1:1 and the bottom of the funnel_<br />Flickr: Ybidau<br />
    43. 43. 2. True engagement numbers are low in relative terms_<br />Flickr: B Rosen<br />
    44. 44. 3. Mainstream penetration numbers are unreliable_<br />Flickr: Shiny Things<br />
    45. 45. 4. No standard measurement makes it hard to quantify value_<br />Flickr: MarcinWichary<br />
    46. 46. 5. Commercialism turned community into ‘what’s in it for me?’_<br />Flickr: MiranRijavec<br />
    47. 47. 6. Genuine identities are difficult to identify_<br />Flickr: Rosemary<br />
    48. 48.
    49. 49. 8. Not a dialog, but a negotiation_<br />Flickr: TheeErin<br />
    50. 50. 9. Relationships are asynchronous_<br />Flickr: Loop_oh<br />
    51. 51. 10. Challenges planning and representing a dynamic ecosystem_<br />Flickr: aaron13251<br />
    52. 52. 11. Erratic continuity of the individual consumer_<br />Flickr: flattop341<br />
    53. 53. 12. Source vs motivation disconnect_<br />Flickr: it290<br />
    54. 54. 13. Paid vs earned vs owned_<br />Flickr: it290<br />
    55. 55. 14. Timescale expectations_<br />Flickr: aaron13251<br />
    56. 56. If you build it, they probably wont come.<br />If you build it, they probably won’t come unless…_ <br />Flickr: Joelk75<br />
    57. 57. So now what?_<br />Flickr: Zemlinki!<br />
    58. 58. Cost is greater than value<br />To increase value, we need to close the comprehension gap_<br />
    59. 59. 1. Get out of the echo chamber_<br />Flickr: wetwebwork<br />
    60. 60. Cut the cable, you are not a representative sample_ <br />Flickr: Nick J Webb<br />
    61. 61. Stop reading Forrester, eMarketer, etc_<br />Flickr: Paul (dex)<br />
    62. 62. Read Confederacy of Dunces by John Kennedy Toole_<br />Flickr: ToddMurray<br />
    63. 63. Read The Power of Myth by Joseph Campbell_<br />Flickr: ToddMurray<br />
    64. 64. Reframe the situation yourself_<br />Flickr: Nate Steiner<br />
    65. 65. 2. Correct the functional fixedness_<br />Flickr: David Blaine<br />
    66. 66. 1. We build social marketplaces where the currency is attention_<br />
    67. 67. 2. We negotiate with consumers to find favourable terms_<br />
    68. 68. 3. We establish an asynchronous contract for that value exchange_<br />
    69. 69. 4. Social has an acquisition role in CRM_<br />
    70. 70. 5. This marketplace may not show a return on investment in the near term and may fail_<br />
    71. 71. 6. We hedge our engagement and penetration numbers conservatively_<br />
    72. 72. 7. Gen Y and millenials are misrepresented as tech savvy_<br />
    73. 73. 8. Planning it is a wicked problem; benchmarks, stats and best practices have limited value_<br />
    74. 74. 9. Social is light touch_<br />
    75. 75. 10. For most brands true communities are out of reach, for now_<br />
    76. 76. Terms for FB:<br />.4% - post engagement <br />1:1 - post impressions to like count ratio<br />80% - wall views<br />20% - promotion entrants<br />2.5% - promotion entrants who share<br />135 – avg number of fans<br />1 – amplification rings in network<br />3% - organic unlike rate_<br />
    77. 77. Thank you. <br />@cuthbertsteel<br />blog.cuthbertsteel.com_<br />

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