Peak Oil:
Transport in Transition
Bryn Davidson
August 2008

How I ended up talking about oil & energy...
to green building...
From mechanical
engineering....
to energy...
to mobility planning....
to urban design....

..at a time when the world is talking about energy.

..at a time when the world is talking about energy.
..and emissions, and energy-security

..at a time when the world is talking about energy.
..and emissions, and energy-security
...and looking for answers

Peak oil is slowly entering mainstream awareness....
It must be real... it has merchandise!
tb l h h di !

Oil: What’s your perspective?

What’s your perspective?
Wall St.
April July Nov.

What’s your perspective?
Economists
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

What’s your perspective?
Geologists
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

What’s your perspective?
0000 1000 2000 3000 4000
Cultural Anthropologists

Peak oil is slowly entering mainstream awareness....
\"The time when we could count on cheap oil
and even cheaper natural gas is clearly ending\"
D
Dave O'R ill CEO Ch
O'Reilly, ChevronTexaco - 2005
T

Oil: what’s your perspective?
“optimists”
Lynch
y
Yergin
(C.E.R.A)
.
“pessimists”
p
n
roduction
obal Oil Pr
Campbell Simmons
(A.S.P.O.)
(A S P O )
Glo
1960 1980 2000 2020

Oil: what’s your perspective?
“optimists”
“flat earth economists”
Lynch
y
Yergin
(C.E.R.A)
.
“pessimists”
p
roduction
n
“realists”
obal Oil Pr
Campbell Simmons
(A.S.P.O.)
(A S P O )
Glo
1960 1980 2000 2020

Oil: what’s your perspective?
What’s your perspective?
Association for the International
Study of Peak Oil & Gas Energy Agency
(ASPO) (IEA)
2007 2007
'Pessimists' vs. 'Optimists': Two divergent views of the future.
Q: How to act in the face of these mixed messages?
captions - J.J.C Bruggink
in ‘Four European Energy Futures’

Oil: what’s your perspective?
1960 1980 2000 2020

Oil: what’s your perspective?
1960 1980 2000 2020

Oil: what’s your perspective?
2008
1960 1980 2000 2020

Oil: what’s your perspective?
The future of our cities?
1960 1980 2000 2020

Peaking: Discovery & Production

Understanding the Game:
Peaking Giant Fields
Samotlor, Russia
3500k
0
1970 1981 2000
* production curves excerpted from a presentation by Matt Simmons

Understanding the Game:
Peaking Giant Fields
Slaughter, Texas
140k
0
1940 1974 2000
* production curves excerpted from a presentation by Matt Simmons

Understanding the Game:
Peaking Giant Fields
Romashkino, Russia
1800k
0
1949 1973 1997
* production curves excerpted from a presentation by Matt Simmons

Understanding the Game:
Peaking Giant Fields
Prudhoe Bay, Alaska
1600k
0
1969 1987 1997
* production curves excerpted from a presentation by Matt Simmons

Peaking: Discovery
Peaking: Discovery & Production & Production
Time Lag ~40 Years
Discovery Production
Oil is easy to get,
i Oil is increasingly
and of good hard to get, and of
quality. poorer quality.
Time

Peaking: Discovery
Peaking: Discovery & Production & Production
today today today
“Of the 65 largest oil producing countries in the world
54 have passed their peak of production”
Kjell Aleklett, 2005

Peaking: Discovery & Production
Peaking: Global Discovery & Production
Discovery
Production

Why would production peak?
What b t
Wh t about:
• New Discoveries & Technology
• ‘Vast’ Middle East Reserves
Vast
• ‘Vast’ Resources: Markets & Substitutes

‘The Oil: Big Discoveries & Technology
U.S.
Conventional Wisdom’
New Technology and Discoveries
10000 kb/d
5000 kb/d
US Lower 48
2008 0 kb/d
1930 1970 2010 2050

‘The Oil: Big Discoveries & Technology
U.S.
Conventional Wisdom’
New Technology and Discoveries
Big, New Discoveries &
New ‘Technology’ 10000 kb/d
AK
DW 5000 kb/d
US Lower 48
2008 0 kb/d
1930 1970 2010 2050

‘The Oil: Big Discoveries & Technology
U.S.
Conventional Wisdom’
New Technology and Discoveries
Big, New Discoveries &
New ‘Technology’ 10000 kb/d
...only shift the curve
l hif h
AK
DW 5000 kb/d
US Lower 48
2008 0 kb/d
1930 1970 2010 2050

Peaking Scenarios & The Magical Jump
‘The Conventional Wisdom
The Wisdom’
The Endless Middle East

‘The Conventional
Peaking Scenarios & The Magical Jump Wisdom’
The Endless Middle East
Scenario 1:
}
Depends
Peak ~2030 on whose
data and
Scenario 2: analysis
you trust...
Peak ~ Now to 2012
OPEC Reported Reserves

‘The Conventional
Peaking Scenarios & The Magical Jump Wisdom’
The Endless Middle East
Scenario 1:
}
Depends
Peak ~2030 on whose
data and
Scenario 2: analysis
you trust...
Peak ~ Now to 2012
OPEC Reported Reserves
In the late 80s OPEC Rules Changed :
The More Reserves You Have > > More Pumping Allowed = More $$$
>> Magical New Reserves?

‘The Conventional
Peaking Scenarios & The Magical Jump Wisdom’
The Endless Middle East
OPEC Reported Reserves
Global Reported Reserves

Peaking Scenarios ‘The Conventional Wisdom’
The Endless Middle East
A crude generalization...
If you believe this, then we
probably won’t peak until
b bl ’t k til
politically
2030...
inflated
reserves? If you believe this, then we’re
y ,
probably peaking now...

Understanding the Game:
Mitigation Rates (Wedges)

Understanding the Game:
Mitigation Rates (Wedges)
But it takes 15 years to
change the fleet...
Rules & Prices Change
Overnight...

Understanding the Game:
Mitigation Rates (Wedges)
Mitigation
‘Wedge’

Understanding the Game:
Mitigation Rates (Wedges)
Mitigation
‘Wedge’
...changing the city takes
even longer.

Understanding the
Energy Transition - How fast can we adapt? Game:
Mitigation Rates (Wedges)
Mitigation Wedges
..to avoid liquid fuel shortfalls, we need a 20 year head-start.
From ‘The Hirsch Report’ Robert Hirsch & Roger Bezdek for the U.S. DOE

Understanding
Markets and Substitutes... the Game:
Mitigation Rates (Wedges)
“... oil sands production cannot even compensate
for the combined declining conventional
oil production in Canada and the North Sea.
Canada’s oil sands resources cannot prevent
a global peak oil scenario. ” *
scenario
* “Canada’s Oil Sands Resources and Its Future Impact on Global Oil Supply”
Bengt Söderbergh, Kjell Aleklett, Fredrik Robelius

Modeling the Energy Transition:

Modeling the Energy Transition:
Fleet Efficiency - Jets & Trucks
140%
005)
120%
ciency (vs. 20
100%
80%
Technological Efficiency
Fle Fuel Effic
60% Jets - 4%
Trucks - 6%
40%
eet
20%
0%
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Modeling the Energy Transition:
US & Canada: Energy Transition Scenarios > Oil Constrained
Truck Miles > Depletion + Mitigation
180
160
140 CO2 Neutral
Electric Rail
% vs. 2005
120
100 Vehicle Fuel
Efficiency
80
CO2 Neutral
v
60 Bio-Fuels
40 Tar Sands
& Coal Liquids
20
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Road Capacity Required for Trucks:
Do we have as much road space today as we will ever need?

Using scenarios to plan...
Historic Global Oil Production

Using scenarios to plan...
Historic Global Oil Production
Future Scenarios

Using scenarios to plan...
Global Oil Production
Future Scenarios
Me
My Kids
Highways & Highway Oriented Land-Use
Transit & Heavy Rail Corridors
Sewer Systems
Parking Garages
Condo Towers

Using scenarios to plan...
Global Oil Production
Future Scenarios
The infrastructure we’re building today will be
serving us in a post-oil, climate constrained future.
We need to use scenarios to test the value of our
investments, and avoid building stranded assets.
Highways & Highway Oriented Land-Use
Transit & Heavy Rail Corridors
Sewer Systems
Parking Garages
Condo Towers

Using scenarios to plan...
Will your project serve you past 2012?
> Use scenario based planning to test your investment

Using scenarios to plan...
This economic projection is being
used as a justification for a major
highway expansion project in
British Columbia.
We’ll label this Scenario 1
www.th.gov.bc.ca/gateway

Using scenarios to plan...
• Rising fuel and construction costs
• Intermittent fuel and power shortages
• R idl E
Rapidly Expanding ‘G
di ‘Green C ll ’ S t
Collar’ Sector
• Turbulent Stock Market
• Weird Weather

Using scenarios to plan...
• Carbon / Fuel Rationing
• Massive Refugee Influx
• U d l ti R
Undulating Recessions
i
• Aging Infrastructure Breakdown
• Rising Sea Levels
g

Using scenarios to plan...
2021
Truck
Miles in
2021
+50%
Now we can put these
3 projections side-by-side
to test the resilience of our
investment.
www.th.gov.bc.ca/gateway

Using scenarios to plan...
2021
Truck
Miles in
2021
+50%
-10%
3 Plausible Futures
The key questions: -30%
Is
I new road capacity
d i
the best way to spend billions?
Could we spend that money on
something else that pays us back in
all futures?

Energy Transition: Setting Priorities

Energy Transition: Setting Priorities
Many
potential responses to
peak oil could lead to a
disastrous acceleration
of climate change
f li t h

Energy Transition: Setting Priorities
Many
potential responses to
peak oil could lead to a
disastrous acceleration
of climate change
f li t h
* Gas to Coal Switching
* Coal to Liquids
* Tar Sands and Shale
* Forest Removal for Biofuels

Energy Transition: Setting Priorities
Many Many strategies
potential responses to for addressing
peak oil could lead to a climate change
disastrous acceleration do nothing to reduce
of climate change
f li t h oil dependence
il d d
* Gas to Coal Switching
* Coal to Liquids
* Tar Sands and Shale
* Forest Removal for Biofuels

Energy Transition: Setting Priorities
Many Many strategies
potential responses to for addressing
peak oil could lead to a climate change
disastrous acceleration do nothing to reduce
of climate change
f li t h oil dependence
il d d
* Gas to Coal Switching * Emissions Trading
* Coal to Liquids * Forestry Based Offsets
* Tar Sands and Shale * Atmospheric Carbon Capture
* Forest Removal for Biofuels

Energy Transition: Setting Priorities
+
We need to prioritize
strategies that
reduce both
emissions and
oil dependence
=
Energy Transition Strategies