Peak Oil:
Transport in Transition

    Bryn Davidson
      August 2008
How I ended up talking about oil & energy...




                                                                         ...
..at a time when the world is talking about energy.
..at a time when the world is talking about energy.
                                ..and emissions, and energy-security
..at a time when the world is talking about energy.
                                ..and emissions, and energy-security
 ...
Peak oil is slowly entering mainstream awareness....




                     It must be real... it has merchandise!
     ...
Oil: What’s your perspective?
What’s your perspective?




                                     Wall St.




         April         July   Nov.
What’s your perspective?




                                                  Economists




              1960    1980  ...
What’s your perspective?




                                                  Geologists




              1960    1980  ...
What’s your perspective?




0000           1000           2000      3000             4000

                              ...
Peak oil is slowly entering mainstream awareness....




              quot;The time when we could count on cheap oil
    ...
Oil: what’s your perspective?


                                                               “optimists”




           ...
Oil: what’s your perspective?


                                                                “optimists”
              ...
Oil: what’s your perspective?
         What’s your perspective?



                     Association for the               ...
Oil: what’s your perspective?




                    1960    1980   2000   2020
Oil: what’s your perspective?




                    1960    1980   2000   2020
Oil: what’s your perspective?


                                     2008




                    1960    1980   2000     ...
Oil: what’s your perspective?




                                                 The future of our cities?




         ...
Peaking: Discovery & Production
Understanding the Game:
                                             Peaking Giant Fields




                            ...
Understanding the Game:
                                             Peaking Giant Fields


                              ...
Understanding the Game:
                                             Peaking Giant Fields



                             ...
Understanding the Game:
                                             Peaking Giant Fields


                              ...
Peaking: Discovery
Peaking: Discovery & Production     & Production


                             Time Lag ~40 Years


  ...
Peaking: Discovery
Peaking: Discovery & Production                 & Production




          today                       ...
Peaking: Discovery & Production
Peaking: Global Discovery & Production




                Discovery




                 ...
Why would production peak?


              What b t
              Wh t about:
    • New Discoveries & Technology
      • ‘...
‘The Oil: Big Discoveries & Technology
       U.S.
            Conventional Wisdom’
   New Technology and Discoveries


  ...
‘The Oil: Big Discoveries & Technology
       U.S.
            Conventional Wisdom’
   New Technology and Discoveries
    ...
‘The Oil: Big Discoveries & Technology
       U.S.
            Conventional Wisdom’
   New Technology and Discoveries
    ...
Peaking Scenarios & The Magical Jump




                  ‘The Conventional Wisdom
                   The              Wi...
‘The Conventional
Peaking Scenarios & The Magical Jump  Wisdom’
                      The Endless Middle East


      Scen...
‘The Conventional
Peaking Scenarios & The Magical Jump  Wisdom’
                      The Endless Middle East


      Scen...
‘The Conventional
Peaking Scenarios & The Magical Jump  Wisdom’
                      The Endless Middle East




        ...
Peaking Scenarios   ‘The Conventional Wisdom’
                      The Endless Middle East




                          ...
Understanding the Game:
Mitigation Rates (Wedges)
Understanding the Game:
                   Mitigation Rates (Wedges)




   But it takes 15 years to
     change the fleet...
Understanding the Game:
      Mitigation Rates (Wedges)




Mitigation
‘Wedge’
Understanding the Game:
      Mitigation Rates (Wedges)




Mitigation
‘Wedge’




                        ...changing the...
Understanding the
    Energy Transition - How fast can we adapt?                        Game:
                            ...
Understanding
Markets and Substitutes...                   the Game:
                             Mitigation Rates (Wedges...
Modeling the Energy Transition:
Modeling the Energy Transition:



                                                     Fleet Efficiency - Jets & Trucks

...
Modeling the Energy Transition:


                        US & Canada: Energy Transition Scenarios > Oil Constrained
     ...
Using scenarios to plan...




                      Historic Global Oil Production
Using scenarios to plan...




                      Historic Global Oil Production

                      Future Scenarios
Using scenarios to plan...




                             Global Oil Production

                             Future Sce...
Using scenarios to plan...




                             Global Oil Production

                             Future Sce...
Using scenarios to plan...




             Will your project serve you past 2012?
             > Use scenario based plann...
Using scenarios to plan...




     This economic projection is being
     used as a justification for a major
     highwa...
Using scenarios to plan...




    • Rising fuel and construction costs
    • Intermittent fuel and power shortages
    • ...
Using scenarios to plan...




    • Carbon / Fuel Rationing
    • Massive Refugee Influx
    • U d l ti R
      Undulatin...
Using scenarios to plan...

                                     2021

                                                   ...
Using scenarios to plan...

                                           2021

                                             ...
Energy Transition: Setting Priorities
Energy Transition: Setting Priorities




                 Many
        potential responses to
       peak oil could lead ...
Energy Transition: Setting Priorities




                 Many
        potential responses to
       peak oil could lead ...
Energy Transition: Setting Priorities




                 Many                     Many strategies
        potential resp...
Energy Transition: Setting Priorities




                 Many                     Many strategies
        potential resp...
Energy Transition: Setting Priorities



                               +


                      We need to prioritize
  ...
CUTA 2008: Bryn Davidson
CUTA 2008: Bryn Davidson
CUTA 2008: Bryn Davidson
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

CUTA 2008: Bryn Davidson

883 views

Published on

Published in: Business, News & Politics
0 Comments
1 Like
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total views
883
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
46
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
9
Comments
0
Likes
1
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

CUTA 2008: Bryn Davidson

  1. 1. Peak Oil: Transport in Transition Bryn Davidson August 2008
  2. 2. How I ended up talking about oil & energy... to green building... From mechanical engineering.... to energy... to mobility planning.... to urban design....
  3. 3. ..at a time when the world is talking about energy.
  4. 4. ..at a time when the world is talking about energy. ..and emissions, and energy-security
  5. 5. ..at a time when the world is talking about energy. ..and emissions, and energy-security ...and looking for answers
  6. 6. Peak oil is slowly entering mainstream awareness.... It must be real... it has merchandise! tb l h h di !
  7. 7. Oil: What’s your perspective?
  8. 8. What’s your perspective? Wall St. April July Nov.
  9. 9. What’s your perspective? Economists 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
  10. 10. What’s your perspective? Geologists 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
  11. 11. What’s your perspective? 0000 1000 2000 3000 4000 Cultural Anthropologists
  12. 12. Peak oil is slowly entering mainstream awareness.... quot;The time when we could count on cheap oil and even cheaper natural gas is clearly endingquot; D Dave O'R ill CEO Ch O'Reilly, ChevronTexaco - 2005 T
  13. 13. Oil: what’s your perspective? “optimists” Lynch y Yergin (C.E.R.A) . “pessimists” p n roduction obal Oil Pr Campbell Simmons (A.S.P.O.) (A S P O ) Glo 1960 1980 2000 2020
  14. 14. Oil: what’s your perspective? “optimists” “flat earth economists” Lynch y Yergin (C.E.R.A) . “pessimists” p roduction n “realists” obal Oil Pr Campbell Simmons (A.S.P.O.) (A S P O ) Glo 1960 1980 2000 2020
  15. 15. Oil: what’s your perspective? What’s your perspective? Association for the International Study of Peak Oil & Gas Energy Agency (ASPO) (IEA) 2007 2007 'Pessimists' vs. 'Optimists': Two divergent views of the future. Q: How to act in the face of these mixed messages? captions - J.J.C Bruggink in ‘Four European Energy Futures’
  16. 16. Oil: what’s your perspective? 1960 1980 2000 2020
  17. 17. Oil: what’s your perspective? 1960 1980 2000 2020
  18. 18. Oil: what’s your perspective? 2008 1960 1980 2000 2020
  19. 19. Oil: what’s your perspective? The future of our cities? 1960 1980 2000 2020
  20. 20. Peaking: Discovery & Production
  21. 21. Understanding the Game: Peaking Giant Fields Samotlor, Russia 3500k 0 1970 1981 2000 * production curves excerpted from a presentation by Matt Simmons
  22. 22. Understanding the Game: Peaking Giant Fields Slaughter, Texas 140k 0 1940 1974 2000 * production curves excerpted from a presentation by Matt Simmons
  23. 23. Understanding the Game: Peaking Giant Fields Romashkino, Russia 1800k 0 1949 1973 1997 * production curves excerpted from a presentation by Matt Simmons
  24. 24. Understanding the Game: Peaking Giant Fields Prudhoe Bay, Alaska 1600k 0 1969 1987 1997 * production curves excerpted from a presentation by Matt Simmons
  25. 25. Peaking: Discovery Peaking: Discovery & Production & Production Time Lag ~40 Years Discovery Production Oil is easy to get, i Oil is increasingly and of good hard to get, and of quality. poorer quality. Time
  26. 26. Peaking: Discovery Peaking: Discovery & Production & Production today today today “Of the 65 largest oil producing countries in the world 54 have passed their peak of production” Kjell Aleklett, 2005
  27. 27. Peaking: Discovery & Production Peaking: Global Discovery & Production Discovery Production
  28. 28. Why would production peak? What b t Wh t about: • New Discoveries & Technology • ‘Vast’ Middle East Reserves Vast • ‘Vast’ Resources: Markets & Substitutes
  29. 29. ‘The Oil: Big Discoveries & Technology U.S. Conventional Wisdom’ New Technology and Discoveries 10000 kb/d 5000 kb/d US Lower 48 2008 0 kb/d 1930 1970 2010 2050
  30. 30. ‘The Oil: Big Discoveries & Technology U.S. Conventional Wisdom’ New Technology and Discoveries Big, New Discoveries & New ‘Technology’ 10000 kb/d AK DW 5000 kb/d US Lower 48 2008 0 kb/d 1930 1970 2010 2050
  31. 31. ‘The Oil: Big Discoveries & Technology U.S. Conventional Wisdom’ New Technology and Discoveries Big, New Discoveries & New ‘Technology’ 10000 kb/d ...only shift the curve l hif h AK DW 5000 kb/d US Lower 48 2008 0 kb/d 1930 1970 2010 2050
  32. 32. Peaking Scenarios & The Magical Jump ‘The Conventional Wisdom The Wisdom’ The Endless Middle East
  33. 33. ‘The Conventional Peaking Scenarios & The Magical Jump Wisdom’ The Endless Middle East Scenario 1: } Depends Peak ~2030 on whose data and Scenario 2: analysis you trust... Peak ~ Now to 2012 OPEC Reported Reserves
  34. 34. ‘The Conventional Peaking Scenarios & The Magical Jump Wisdom’ The Endless Middle East Scenario 1: } Depends Peak ~2030 on whose data and Scenario 2: analysis you trust... Peak ~ Now to 2012 OPEC Reported Reserves In the late 80s OPEC Rules Changed : The More Reserves You Have > > More Pumping Allowed = More $$$ >> Magical New Reserves?
  35. 35. ‘The Conventional Peaking Scenarios & The Magical Jump Wisdom’ The Endless Middle East OPEC Reported Reserves Global Reported Reserves
  36. 36. Peaking Scenarios ‘The Conventional Wisdom’ The Endless Middle East A crude generalization... If you believe this, then we probably won’t peak until b bl ’t k til politically 2030... inflated reserves? If you believe this, then we’re y , probably peaking now...
  37. 37. Understanding the Game: Mitigation Rates (Wedges)
  38. 38. Understanding the Game: Mitigation Rates (Wedges) But it takes 15 years to change the fleet... Rules & Prices Change Overnight...
  39. 39. Understanding the Game: Mitigation Rates (Wedges) Mitigation ‘Wedge’
  40. 40. Understanding the Game: Mitigation Rates (Wedges) Mitigation ‘Wedge’ ...changing the city takes even longer.
  41. 41. Understanding the Energy Transition - How fast can we adapt? Game: Mitigation Rates (Wedges) Mitigation Wedges ..to avoid liquid fuel shortfalls, we need a 20 year head-start. From ‘The Hirsch Report’ Robert Hirsch & Roger Bezdek for the U.S. DOE
  42. 42. Understanding Markets and Substitutes... the Game: Mitigation Rates (Wedges) “... oil sands production cannot even compensate for the combined declining conventional oil production in Canada and the North Sea. Canada’s oil sands resources cannot prevent a global peak oil scenario. ” * scenario * “Canada’s Oil Sands Resources and Its Future Impact on Global Oil Supply” Bengt Söderbergh, Kjell Aleklett, Fredrik Robelius
  43. 43. Modeling the Energy Transition:
  44. 44. Modeling the Energy Transition: Fleet Efficiency - Jets & Trucks 140% 005) 120% ciency (vs. 20 100% 80% Technological Efficiency Fle Fuel Effic 60% Jets - 4% Trucks - 6% 40% eet 20% 0% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
  45. 45. Modeling the Energy Transition: US & Canada: Energy Transition Scenarios > Oil Constrained Truck Miles > Depletion + Mitigation 180 160 140 CO2 Neutral Electric Rail % vs. 2005 120 100 Vehicle Fuel Efficiency 80 CO2 Neutral v 60 Bio-Fuels 40 Tar Sands & Coal Liquids 20 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Road Capacity Required for Trucks: Do we have as much road space today as we will ever need?
  46. 46. Using scenarios to plan... Historic Global Oil Production
  47. 47. Using scenarios to plan... Historic Global Oil Production Future Scenarios
  48. 48. Using scenarios to plan... Global Oil Production Future Scenarios Me My Kids Highways & Highway Oriented Land-Use Transit & Heavy Rail Corridors Sewer Systems Parking Garages Condo Towers
  49. 49. Using scenarios to plan... Global Oil Production Future Scenarios The infrastructure we’re building today will be serving us in a post-oil, climate constrained future. We need to use scenarios to test the value of our investments, and avoid building stranded assets. Highways & Highway Oriented Land-Use Transit & Heavy Rail Corridors Sewer Systems Parking Garages Condo Towers
  50. 50. Using scenarios to plan... Will your project serve you past 2012? > Use scenario based planning to test your investment
  51. 51. Using scenarios to plan... This economic projection is being used as a justification for a major highway expansion project in British Columbia. We’ll label this Scenario 1 www.th.gov.bc.ca/gateway
  52. 52. Using scenarios to plan... • Rising fuel and construction costs • Intermittent fuel and power shortages • R idl E Rapidly Expanding ‘G di ‘Green C ll ’ S t Collar’ Sector • Turbulent Stock Market • Weird Weather
  53. 53. Using scenarios to plan... • Carbon / Fuel Rationing • Massive Refugee Influx • U d l ti R Undulating Recessions i • Aging Infrastructure Breakdown • Rising Sea Levels g
  54. 54. Using scenarios to plan... 2021 Truck Miles in 2021 +50% Now we can put these 3 projections side-by-side to test the resilience of our investment. www.th.gov.bc.ca/gateway
  55. 55. Using scenarios to plan... 2021 Truck Miles in 2021 +50% -10% 3 Plausible Futures The key questions: -30% Is I new road capacity d i the best way to spend billions? Could we spend that money on something else that pays us back in all futures?
  56. 56. Energy Transition: Setting Priorities
  57. 57. Energy Transition: Setting Priorities Many potential responses to peak oil could lead to a disastrous acceleration of climate change f li t h
  58. 58. Energy Transition: Setting Priorities Many potential responses to peak oil could lead to a disastrous acceleration of climate change f li t h * Gas to Coal Switching * Coal to Liquids * Tar Sands and Shale * Forest Removal for Biofuels
  59. 59. Energy Transition: Setting Priorities Many Many strategies potential responses to for addressing peak oil could lead to a climate change disastrous acceleration do nothing to reduce of climate change f li t h oil dependence il d d * Gas to Coal Switching * Coal to Liquids * Tar Sands and Shale * Forest Removal for Biofuels
  60. 60. Energy Transition: Setting Priorities Many Many strategies potential responses to for addressing peak oil could lead to a climate change disastrous acceleration do nothing to reduce of climate change f li t h oil dependence il d d * Gas to Coal Switching * Emissions Trading * Coal to Liquids * Forestry Based Offsets * Tar Sands and Shale * Atmospheric Carbon Capture * Forest Removal for Biofuels
  61. 61. Energy Transition: Setting Priorities + We need to prioritize strategies that reduce both emissions and oil dependence = Energy Transition Strategies

×