CUTA 2008: Bryn Davidson
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CUTA 2008: Bryn Davidson

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    CUTA 2008: Bryn Davidson CUTA 2008: Bryn Davidson Presentation Transcript

    • Peak Oil: Transport in Transition Bryn Davidson August 2008
    • How I ended up talking about oil & energy... to green building... From mechanical engineering.... to energy... to mobility planning.... to urban design....
    • ..at a time when the world is talking about energy.
    • ..at a time when the world is talking about energy. ..and emissions, and energy-security
    • ..at a time when the world is talking about energy. ..and emissions, and energy-security ...and looking for answers
    • Peak oil is slowly entering mainstream awareness.... It must be real... it has merchandise! tb l h h di !
    • Oil: What’s your perspective?
    • What’s your perspective? Wall St. April July Nov.
    • What’s your perspective? Economists 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
    • What’s your perspective? Geologists 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
    • What’s your perspective? 0000 1000 2000 3000 4000 Cultural Anthropologists
    • Peak oil is slowly entering mainstream awareness.... quot;The time when we could count on cheap oil and even cheaper natural gas is clearly endingquot; D Dave O'R ill CEO Ch O'Reilly, ChevronTexaco - 2005 T
    • Oil: what’s your perspective? “optimists” Lynch y Yergin (C.E.R.A) . “pessimists” p n roduction obal Oil Pr Campbell Simmons (A.S.P.O.) (A S P O ) Glo 1960 1980 2000 2020
    • Oil: what’s your perspective? “optimists” “flat earth economists” Lynch y Yergin (C.E.R.A) . “pessimists” p roduction n “realists” obal Oil Pr Campbell Simmons (A.S.P.O.) (A S P O ) Glo 1960 1980 2000 2020
    • Oil: what’s your perspective? What’s your perspective? Association for the International Study of Peak Oil & Gas Energy Agency (ASPO) (IEA) 2007 2007 'Pessimists' vs. 'Optimists': Two divergent views of the future. Q: How to act in the face of these mixed messages? captions - J.J.C Bruggink in ‘Four European Energy Futures’
    • Oil: what’s your perspective? 1960 1980 2000 2020
    • Oil: what’s your perspective? 1960 1980 2000 2020
    • Oil: what’s your perspective? 2008 1960 1980 2000 2020
    • Oil: what’s your perspective? The future of our cities? 1960 1980 2000 2020
    • Peaking: Discovery & Production
    • Understanding the Game: Peaking Giant Fields Samotlor, Russia 3500k 0 1970 1981 2000 * production curves excerpted from a presentation by Matt Simmons
    • Understanding the Game: Peaking Giant Fields Slaughter, Texas 140k 0 1940 1974 2000 * production curves excerpted from a presentation by Matt Simmons
    • Understanding the Game: Peaking Giant Fields Romashkino, Russia 1800k 0 1949 1973 1997 * production curves excerpted from a presentation by Matt Simmons
    • Understanding the Game: Peaking Giant Fields Prudhoe Bay, Alaska 1600k 0 1969 1987 1997 * production curves excerpted from a presentation by Matt Simmons
    • Peaking: Discovery Peaking: Discovery & Production & Production Time Lag ~40 Years Discovery Production Oil is easy to get, i Oil is increasingly and of good hard to get, and of quality. poorer quality. Time
    • Peaking: Discovery Peaking: Discovery & Production & Production today today today “Of the 65 largest oil producing countries in the world 54 have passed their peak of production” Kjell Aleklett, 2005
    • Peaking: Discovery & Production Peaking: Global Discovery & Production Discovery Production
    • Why would production peak? What b t Wh t about: • New Discoveries & Technology • ‘Vast’ Middle East Reserves Vast • ‘Vast’ Resources: Markets & Substitutes
    • ‘The Oil: Big Discoveries & Technology U.S. Conventional Wisdom’ New Technology and Discoveries 10000 kb/d 5000 kb/d US Lower 48 2008 0 kb/d 1930 1970 2010 2050
    • ‘The Oil: Big Discoveries & Technology U.S. Conventional Wisdom’ New Technology and Discoveries Big, New Discoveries & New ‘Technology’ 10000 kb/d AK DW 5000 kb/d US Lower 48 2008 0 kb/d 1930 1970 2010 2050
    • ‘The Oil: Big Discoveries & Technology U.S. Conventional Wisdom’ New Technology and Discoveries Big, New Discoveries & New ‘Technology’ 10000 kb/d ...only shift the curve l hif h AK DW 5000 kb/d US Lower 48 2008 0 kb/d 1930 1970 2010 2050
    • Peaking Scenarios & The Magical Jump ‘The Conventional Wisdom The Wisdom’ The Endless Middle East
    • ‘The Conventional Peaking Scenarios & The Magical Jump Wisdom’ The Endless Middle East Scenario 1: } Depends Peak ~2030 on whose data and Scenario 2: analysis you trust... Peak ~ Now to 2012 OPEC Reported Reserves
    • ‘The Conventional Peaking Scenarios & The Magical Jump Wisdom’ The Endless Middle East Scenario 1: } Depends Peak ~2030 on whose data and Scenario 2: analysis you trust... Peak ~ Now to 2012 OPEC Reported Reserves In the late 80s OPEC Rules Changed : The More Reserves You Have > > More Pumping Allowed = More $$$ >> Magical New Reserves?
    • ‘The Conventional Peaking Scenarios & The Magical Jump Wisdom’ The Endless Middle East OPEC Reported Reserves Global Reported Reserves
    • Peaking Scenarios ‘The Conventional Wisdom’ The Endless Middle East A crude generalization... If you believe this, then we probably won’t peak until b bl ’t k til politically 2030... inflated reserves? If you believe this, then we’re y , probably peaking now...
    • Understanding the Game: Mitigation Rates (Wedges)
    • Understanding the Game: Mitigation Rates (Wedges) But it takes 15 years to change the fleet... Rules & Prices Change Overnight...
    • Understanding the Game: Mitigation Rates (Wedges) Mitigation ‘Wedge’
    • Understanding the Game: Mitigation Rates (Wedges) Mitigation ‘Wedge’ ...changing the city takes even longer.
    • Understanding the Energy Transition - How fast can we adapt? Game: Mitigation Rates (Wedges) Mitigation Wedges ..to avoid liquid fuel shortfalls, we need a 20 year head-start. From ‘The Hirsch Report’ Robert Hirsch & Roger Bezdek for the U.S. DOE
    • Understanding Markets and Substitutes... the Game: Mitigation Rates (Wedges) “... oil sands production cannot even compensate for the combined declining conventional oil production in Canada and the North Sea. Canada’s oil sands resources cannot prevent a global peak oil scenario. ” * scenario * “Canada’s Oil Sands Resources and Its Future Impact on Global Oil Supply” Bengt Söderbergh, Kjell Aleklett, Fredrik Robelius
    • Modeling the Energy Transition:
    • Modeling the Energy Transition: Fleet Efficiency - Jets & Trucks 140% 005) 120% ciency (vs. 20 100% 80% Technological Efficiency Fle Fuel Effic 60% Jets - 4% Trucks - 6% 40% eet 20% 0% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
    • Modeling the Energy Transition: US & Canada: Energy Transition Scenarios > Oil Constrained Truck Miles > Depletion + Mitigation 180 160 140 CO2 Neutral Electric Rail % vs. 2005 120 100 Vehicle Fuel Efficiency 80 CO2 Neutral v 60 Bio-Fuels 40 Tar Sands & Coal Liquids 20 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Road Capacity Required for Trucks: Do we have as much road space today as we will ever need?
    • Using scenarios to plan... Historic Global Oil Production
    • Using scenarios to plan... Historic Global Oil Production Future Scenarios
    • Using scenarios to plan... Global Oil Production Future Scenarios Me My Kids Highways & Highway Oriented Land-Use Transit & Heavy Rail Corridors Sewer Systems Parking Garages Condo Towers
    • Using scenarios to plan... Global Oil Production Future Scenarios The infrastructure we’re building today will be serving us in a post-oil, climate constrained future. We need to use scenarios to test the value of our investments, and avoid building stranded assets. Highways & Highway Oriented Land-Use Transit & Heavy Rail Corridors Sewer Systems Parking Garages Condo Towers
    • Using scenarios to plan... Will your project serve you past 2012? > Use scenario based planning to test your investment
    • Using scenarios to plan... This economic projection is being used as a justification for a major highway expansion project in British Columbia. We’ll label this Scenario 1 www.th.gov.bc.ca/gateway
    • Using scenarios to plan... • Rising fuel and construction costs • Intermittent fuel and power shortages • R idl E Rapidly Expanding ‘G di ‘Green C ll ’ S t Collar’ Sector • Turbulent Stock Market • Weird Weather
    • Using scenarios to plan... • Carbon / Fuel Rationing • Massive Refugee Influx • U d l ti R Undulating Recessions i • Aging Infrastructure Breakdown • Rising Sea Levels g
    • Using scenarios to plan... 2021 Truck Miles in 2021 +50% Now we can put these 3 projections side-by-side to test the resilience of our investment. www.th.gov.bc.ca/gateway
    • Using scenarios to plan... 2021 Truck Miles in 2021 +50% -10% 3 Plausible Futures The key questions: -30% Is I new road capacity d i the best way to spend billions? Could we spend that money on something else that pays us back in all futures?
    • Energy Transition: Setting Priorities
    • Energy Transition: Setting Priorities Many potential responses to peak oil could lead to a disastrous acceleration of climate change f li t h
    • Energy Transition: Setting Priorities Many potential responses to peak oil could lead to a disastrous acceleration of climate change f li t h * Gas to Coal Switching * Coal to Liquids * Tar Sands and Shale * Forest Removal for Biofuels
    • Energy Transition: Setting Priorities Many Many strategies potential responses to for addressing peak oil could lead to a climate change disastrous acceleration do nothing to reduce of climate change f li t h oil dependence il d d * Gas to Coal Switching * Coal to Liquids * Tar Sands and Shale * Forest Removal for Biofuels
    • Energy Transition: Setting Priorities Many Many strategies potential responses to for addressing peak oil could lead to a climate change disastrous acceleration do nothing to reduce of climate change f li t h oil dependence il d d * Gas to Coal Switching * Emissions Trading * Coal to Liquids * Forestry Based Offsets * Tar Sands and Shale * Atmospheric Carbon Capture * Forest Removal for Biofuels
    • Energy Transition: Setting Priorities + We need to prioritize strategies that reduce both emissions and oil dependence = Energy Transition Strategies