contextualizing trend analysis with andrew whitcomb + claire kohlerpolitical economic social technological demographic/geographicLess political compromise in the United States United States Economic Bubbles More women working, all age groups Wireless communication Worldwide population increaseU.S. Presidential Spending by Candidates (trade in products or assets with inflated values) 5.3 billion in 1990, 6.8 billion in 2009.2008: $1,324,000,000 1995-2001: Dot-Com bubble Affects living arrangements and home Mobile phone subscriptions increased to 69.042004: $717,000,000 2008: Housing market bubble environments of children per 100 people in 2009 (from 42.22 in 100, 2006; 1 Worldwide population growth rate decreasing2000: $343,000,000 in 100, 1994).1996: $240,000,000 United States (and world?) shift from Female employment increased 3% from 1994–2005, 5% for 1.7% in 1990, 1.2% in 2009. manufacturing workforce to information and many countries, as much as 20% (for developed countries) Faster computing2008, Columbia, 4.8 million participate in 365 protests orches- technology driven Gender wage gap closing: 28% avg difference in incomes, 1980. Negative growth in many Eastern European countries, highertrated through facebook 18% avg difference, 2004. Microprocessor transistor counts in CPUs doubled growth in lower-income countries Number of working-age immigrants in the United States has every two years since 1971.2009, in Moldova a 10,000 person protest is organized through swelled, from 14.6 million in 1994 to 29.7 million in 2010; in Global life expectancy increasingtwitter Changing female educational ambition and achievement 2007 the percentage of highly skilled workers overtook that of More universal access (internet) lower-skilled workers 65 years in 1990, 67.2 in 20091945, United Nations forms to facilitate international relations More diverse familiesand work towards world peace 1995: World trade organization is created to facilitiate free Larger number of internet users: 16 million in mid Most African nations holding steady, increasing very slightly, trade Falling marriage rates: From 1970–2004, from over 8 marriages 1990s, to over a billion by 2006. 27.1% of world or decreasing in past 20 years, often well under global avg.1993, European Union officially established as political and per 1,000 ppl each year, down to to only 5. population by 2009.economic partnership between European countries The Fairtrade Labelling Organizations International (FLO), cre- Rise in urbanization ated in 1997 Rising divorce: From 1970–2004, rates doubled Broadband access has risen sharply: OECD aver-1999, Several countries in the European adopt a common cur- age around 17% 29% of world pop. lived in urban centers in 1950, 49% in 2005,rency: the “euro” Between March 2007 and March 2008, global Rise in single-parent households projected 60% in 2030. Developed countries generally have food prices increased an average of 43 percent, Information overload higher proportion of urban population but developing coun-June 2009, First meeting of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) Increase in “reconstructed families,” parents found new part- tries higher urbanization rate. (In the past 40 years, India’sheld, the partnership is meant to improve per capita income according to the International Monetary Fund. ner or children move between parents urban population has grown by more than 350%.) Growing number of websites: from 18,000 in 1995 to 100 mil-and living conditions. The four nations contain 42% of the lion in 2007. 90% of growth occurred since 2000.world’s population but only 15% of its GDP Social security funding could cease by 2017 Rapidly falling births Emergence of “”megacities”” in 21st century (pop > 10 mil- Digital revolution (economic also?) lion). Currently there are 21 megacities. Challenges: slums,2001-2011: United States engages in military action against 2010 unionization rate in United States at 11.9, down from 12.3 Some sections of society maintain more traditional family homelessness, gentrification, traffic congestion, urban sprawl,Afghanistan, Iraq percent in 2009 and 20.1 percent in 1983, when there were 17.7 patterns pollution. million union members. The peak unionization rate was 35 More universal access (internet) percent during the mid-1950s (NC has lowest rate at 3.2)2011: Rioting in London coordinating using mobile technology; Evolving values Broadband access has risen sharply: OECD Need to allow people to feel that they can escape the metropo-clean-up operations supported by thousands on Twitter and lis (although they still may be inside it): limit feeling of beingFacebook 1944 World Bank is created; World Bank provides loans to Stronger secular-rational values are associated with the average around 17% “trapped” in a city developing countries. Official goal of the WB is reduction of decline in religious engagement, and other orientations areWisconsin limits collective bargaining rights of union workers: poverty closely linked to it: less deference to authority; greater toler- Information overload What makes a city a great place to live? Small-scale neigh-Law eliminates most collective bargaining for most public ance to divorce, abortion, euthanasia, and suicide; and lower borhoods, green spaces, efficient transportation (bike- andunions. Workers will contribute more toward health insurance 1980s and 1990s dramatic rise in NGOs; The NGO sector is now pedestrian-oriented as well as vehicular), nurturing small and the eighth largest economy in the world — worth over $1 tril- nationalism.and pensions. Bargaining limited to negotiating wages; unions informal businesses as well as corporations (vibrant publicrequired to hold a vote of members every year to continue. lion a year globally. It employs nearly 19 million paid workers, spaces), low crime rates, sanitation not to mention countless volunteers. NGOs spend about Stronger self-expression means lower emphasis $US15 billion on development each year, about the same as the on economic and physical security and more on Health World Bank subjective well-being and quality of life. Obesity: 23% in 1990, 34% in 2009 (US) 2009, introduction of Bitcoins: Digitally signed transactions, Other related orientations are: lower stress with one node signing over some amount of the currency on diligence and hard work, and more on to another node, are broadcast to all nodes in a peer-to-peer Diabetes: 2.7% in 1990, 6.6% in 2009 (US). 70% of network imagination and tolerance as important values to people with diabetes globally live in developing teach. countries. Global diabetes rate expected to rise from 6.4% in 2010 to 7.8% in 2030 (438 million Less social interaction people). Engagement appears to be growing in places where it is high HIV/AIDS: emerged in 1970s, but only became an issue with and declining in some of the places where it is low; in other first cases in the US. Little knowledge or understanding of words the differences in social activity between countries are sexual behaviors in Africa meant that disease spread quickly getting wider. and has taken several decades to begin to slow the number of new cases per year. trend analysis Decreasing involvement in traditional organizations like churches and trade unions. Bioterrorism a 21st century threat (anthrax, smallpox) Membership of voluntary organisations is high and growing Unprecedented rate of new diseases: one or more per year. around recent in the Nordic region and certain other European countries, is Due to vast population growth, inhabiting areas that were stable or fluctuating elsewhere, but seems to be falling in the previously uninhabited, rapid urbanization, intensive farming United Kingdom, some Central Eastern European countries, practices, environmental degradation, and misuse of antimi- nation- and world- Portugal and Turkey. The same country pattern emerges for crobials, which has disrupted the equilibrium of the microbial an indicator of more deliberate engagement - undertaking world. Also, huge amount of air traffic means that diseases can unpaid voluntary work. spread to other continents within hours. (SARS is good exam- wide patterns ple: a previously unknown disease that had no geographical Asking the question, “Do you in general trust other people?” affinity, incubated silently over a week, mimicked symptoms (to be answered “yes” or “you can’t be careful enough”) reveals of other diseases, took heaviest toll on hospital staff, and killed and statistics acted as a jumping again in the Nordic countries and the Netherlands that gener- alised trust is high, even rising, while in several Southern and 10% of those infected. The perfect modern disease.) Central Eastern European countries it is lower and falling. off point for analyzing cultural Increased number of mainstay antimicrobials that are failing due to viruses evolving, becoming drug resistant (XDR-TB Low levels of organization membership broadly go hand-in- examples of sharing. Specific hand with low levels of trust. (extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis) a good example—a huge threat in Sub-Saharan Africa.) trends highlighted in red informed Education? Threat of chemical disasters also a more modern develop- ment (Chernobyl, nuclear plant failures in Japan because of contextualizing brainstorming and earthquake) other activities. Blue highlighted Increasing need for global collaboration in order to identify, prevent, contain, and control outbreaks (this applies to health trends were referenced in the later threats from natural disasters as well). Sharing research, knowledge, materials important to prevent global outbreak. futurecasting phase of work. Vaccines, technology must not be available only to the wealthy. Widespread panic can spread quickly via internet—but also makes concealment of outbreaks impossible for gov’ts. Inter- national Health Regulations (2005) authorize WHO to take into account information sources other than official notifications.
contextualizing characteristics with andrew whitcomb + claire kohlercharacteristics of sharing communitiesorganic affinity diagram suggests circular movement, interaction, and relationships between varying points on rings. individuals: people who share siblings athletes newcomers individuals parents farmers music listeners neighbors contributors designers teachers/educators bloggers bus/train/subway riders scientists mentors city leaders communities scholars actions communities: groups of people who share families unions sports teams and fans governments hobby groups religious communities values nations professional organizations clubs/school-sponsored groups social networks online dating services actions: how they share giving/taking tagging reusing reselling contributing repurposing communicating swapping retelling stories commenting lending values: why they share qualities of sharing motivations for sharers qualities of sharers communities environmental health altruism balance between rules personal health trust & freedom save money passionate about cause clearly defined feel good pride in mission expectations generate extra cash honesty stories/legends reputation educating newcomers looking out for the greater good shared language
leverage points indicate opportunities for design to intervene in systems and facilitate change. contextualizing leverage points with andrew whitcomb + claire kohlerHigher leverage points indicate greater degrees of change. We found areas of design most suited to address the leverage points, and themeswithin examples of specific points of intervention. leverage points design’s ability to influence themes found in examples PARADIGM SHIFT system design: NON-PHYSICAL COMMUNITIES SELF-ORGANIZATION trends-communal, national, global INDIVIDUAL EMPOWERMENT CHANGING THE RULES + CHOICE CRITICAL NODES experience design: INFORMATION USAGE INFORMATION how we collect + use information INFORMATION GATHERING/ FEEDBACK LOOPS DISSEMINATION STOCKS & FLOWS product design: IDLING CAPACITY STRUCTURE tangible objects + tools ASSEMBLY LINE PRODUCTION AMOUNTS/QUANTITIES
contextualizing yields with andrew whitcomb + claire kohlercombining leverage points with thecharacteristics of community diagramyielded a way to measure impact among specific examples. We contended thatexamples and themes within the central rings that reached to the highest leveragepoints would find the most profound impact, and would provide the most timelydesign opportunities. We might identify further design needs by examining howexamples and themes can be pushed to function at higher leverage points. non-physical communities ex: communities no longer based on proximity information use ex: publication of product footprints information gathering & dissemination ex: GPS monitoring of buses idling capacity ex: self check-out
futurecasting storyboardfuturecasting opportunities for sharing with marysol ortega + michael carbaugh“Meals with Meaning” follows the Dawsons, a family of three that enjoys eating together.Jared is a 9 year old with Type I Diabetes. Kelly, a single mother, enjoys cooking Kelly keeps busy as an Accountant and is Kelly discovers an online system that family meals for her two sons, Jared and often rushed to cook. recommends meals for families, even Daniel. taking dietary restrictions into account.The Dawsons find a recipe that everyone A few days later, Kelly is in a hurry and After Jared suffers from a reaction, Kelly Jared is now 14 years old. The platform has expanded to offer moreis excited about. has to bring home fast food. On the way uses the website to seek help balancing recipes and connects the Dawsons to to soccer, Kelly forgets to bring Jared’s Jared’s diet. other families. insulin.The Dawsons meet the Johnsons and Jared gets ice cream with a friend after Kelly is in a hurry that evening and has After dinner, Kelly is surprised to find outbegin tele-cooking together. Jared meets school and doesn’t tell him mom. to bring home fast food. that Jared isn’t feeling well.a new friend, Jeremy.
futurecasting storyboardfuturecasting opportunities for sharing with marysol ortega + michael carbaugh“Meals with Meaning” follows the Dawsons, a family of three that enjoys eating together.Jared admits that he grabbed ice cream Kelly explains to Jared that he needs to The platform has a special app for teen- Jared is 19 and a Freshman in college. Jared enjoys cooking with his roomates;after school with a friend. take responsibility for his own health. agers that Jared tries out. the platform is now more robust and integrated into their refrigerator.Jeremy, Jared’s childhood friend, invites After their meal, Jared sends his mom Jared goes on his first college date and Lisa enjoys her meal with Jared. While Lisa goes to the bathroom, Jaredhim and his roomates to tele-cook. a message with his recent vitals. He is gets his favorite meal, spaghetti. realizes he has been eating a lot of carbs. proud that he is being responsible.The platform measures the nutritional Lisa asks Jared to get ice cream. Lisa lets Jared know that he shouldn’t be Lisa and Jared hold hands.content of Jared’s meal and alerts him hesitant to watch his nutrition aroundthat he is at risk for hyperglycemia. her.
theorizing principle rebecca knowe statement By incorporating the principle of feedback into user-friendly systems, designers can promote a culture of ownership and belonging within the groups the systems serve. If users feel a sense of belonging when interacting with others in a system, they will continue to engage with it. The process of continually gathering and incorporating their feedback can lead the system to evolve into what users most want and need it to be. Feedback also strengthens the relationship between designers and users of a system, promoting dialogue and allowing both parties to share with each other more freely. feedback description community members Rather than designers of a system making decisions as to what users need and from want based on their personal assumptions and preferences, by structuring the system to garner feedback from actual users, the designers can make changes users will more likely respond positively to. When feedback is incorporated into a system as part of its inherent structure, this can assure the systems should be integral to designed longevity. Those who use the system will know best what they need from it, so users are key sources for important knowledge of how the system can systems and research processes function better. Designers should incorporate systemic processes that both solicit feedback and respond to feedback. Structures for gathering and using used to create them community member feedback must be incorporated into both the research process and into the designed system. Structure will be needed to most efficiently get feedback from its source to the influencers who can change the system, while an openness and free-flowing culture of dialogue will also be needed to ensure honest and accurate feedback. The cultivation of a shared language will enable designers and users to converseplatforms for sharing should continually be more usable freely about needed changes to a system.by the communities they serve, adapting to the ways the rationalecommunity changes over time. Design of a platform should continually be more usable by the community it serves, adapting to the ways the community changes over time. Users will have greater trust in the designers behind a systemcommunity members will have greater trust in the Closer relationship between designers and user population (dialogue)designers behind a system when their feedback is valued exampleand incorporated. If members of an interdisciplinary team wanted to archive new aspects of their meetings within a collaborative system, it would be important for the systems designer to understand their feedback.systems for feedback promote closer relationships through This feedback would need to come throughout the entire lifetime of the system—from conception to implementation to modification during use. A system for feedback could enable a dialogue thatdialogue between designers and community members. promotes needed changes at each point in the lifetime of the system. Continually updating the system to meet users needs will increase its relevancy to their lives and ensure its use.incorporating feedback into the research and design of a implicationssystem will promote a culture of ownership and belonging Users will need to be willing to engage with the feedback affordances Users will need to feel that their feedback is valued.in the community. Users will expect their feedback to be valuable to the operation of a system
theorizing process rebecca knowe research & analysis synthesis & prototyping designers reflect guide interpret iterate on current landscape community members community design changes enabling community in research procedure member findings according to community feedback synthesize member directives test synthesize test research findings to changes to system decide most needed for closest match to changes feedback participants reflect describe iterate through interviewing most common and preferred changes other community important interview to system using members topics prototyping tools broadcast broadcast research changes & findings to redesigns to community communityvehicles for feedbackResearch/analysis phase: designers guide activitiescommunity members in researching one another’s Reflecting is collaborativemost pressing needs. Designers publish research Description is generated by usersfindings for the community to review. Synthesis is collaborativeSynthesis/prototype phase: community members Iteration is generated by designers/programmers phases rolesuse specialized interface tools to redesign the Testing is collaborative Reflection on current state/problem Designerssystem in the ways that best seem to meet the Description of problem Programmerscommunity’s common needs. Designers make flow Synthesis of feedback Participantschanges and broadcast news of the changes for Cyclical and ongoing throughout lifetime of Iteration of solutions Stakeholders (community founders)community members to test and review. community Testing Webmaster/moderator
theorizing method rebecca knowe overview participant participant Design researchers act as consultants to guide users of the system through conducting their own research. Community members interview one another to discover what the most pressing problems or needed changes to the system are, using interview guides of suggested questions and topics, also understanding that they may cover other areas as deemed significant. Designers assist community members in organizing the data to determine the most common priorities for action. (Based on the “practitioner-as-researcher” method, a type of actioninterview guide science/action inquiry research, by Bensimon/Polkinghorne.)Participants would be given the following questions to askinterview partners, with instructions to record one another’s In the next phase, using the research findings, community members andanswers either digitally or in writing. Instructions on designers engage together in prototyping. Community members use theinterviewing could be given via worksheets or mobile devices. significant areas for action to drive their own redesigns of the relevant system structures. This would take place using a set of interface prototyping tools allowing members to move and change the system components. Memberswhat do you think draws people who discussed the relevant topics in their interviews are given access to the prototyping tool, where they may create iterations of rearrangements orto use the system? redesigns to the section of the system in question. Designers would respond to members’ prototype redesigns by incorporating members’ ideas into revision iterations of the system, consulting prototype creators where necessary forwhat makes them continue using it? clarity. Together the designers and community members would test and revise the system until both parties are satisfied with the changes.how do you typically use the system? purpose Designers can know what users are needing in their own words, according to their own organization/ representation of the reality they deal with.in the past have you ever thoughtabout how the system could be better application Used during research/analysis and prototype/synthesis phasesused in any way? setting Can be deployed online or within the system/platformhave you encountered any specificproblems while trying to use the roles Designers and other stakeholders must be involved to direct the user research worksystem? technique Could be initiated by contacting most involved/active/interested members of the community. memberswhat route would you use to give interview one another in person or online.feedback on the system’s strengths instrumentand weaknesses? Interview guide for community members to interview one another resultswhat kind of feedback would you Reported by users to designers; designers take suggestions for changes to systemexpect to hear? Designer can learn what changes are most important to users and why