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Presented by
Professor Mark Grabowski
Barack Obama          Mitt Romney
Incumbent, Democrat   Republican challenger
• More likeable        • Seen as out of
  personality            touch due to
• Killed OBL, ended      wealth
  Iraq War             • Flip-flopper
• Passed healthcare    • Seen as having
  reform, but will
  court overturn it?     more economic
• Hasn’t fixed           savvy, according
  economy or kept        to poll. And
  many promises          economy will be
                         #1 issue
The latest polls show it’s a close race…
A presidential change would be more
an Obama loss than a Romney victory
Most of Congress is up for re-election…
It would be hard to overestimate the
importance of mass media in the
U.S. electoral process. National
television networks reach 99
percent of all American homes,
making contact across the entire
socioeconomic spectrum. Cable
news stations, radio and television
talk shows, newspapers, news
magazines and Internet sites all
provide voters with information
about the candidates. The content
and emphasis of their coverage are
among the most powerful factors in
determining how voters perceive the
candidates and the issues.
USA vs. France:
Comparison of people and daily newspapers




France: 65 million people, 80 daily newspapers
USA: 300 million people, 1400 daily newspapers
The first president, George
                 Washington, was afraid to run
                 for a 2nd term due to the
                 negative effects of the press.
    _________________________
     America’s press has always
        impacted its elections
     ________________________
John Quincy Adams blamed the
press for not supporting him
enough when he lost his
presidential reelection bid in
1829.
Voters see media as influential
• A Harvard poll of the previous presidential
  election found that 82% agree or strongly agree
  that media coverage has too much influence on
  who Americans vote for
• And, to a large extent, negative coverage appears
  to be responsible for this influence;
• 42% say the media has influenced their vote
  against a candidate through negative coverage,
  while only 28% say it has influenced their vote for
  a candidate through positive coverage.
But they don’t trust it…

           The Harvard poll also
           found that 62% of those
           surveyed are distrustful
           of campaign media
           coverage.
Media focuses on wrong issues
• 89% agree or strongly agree that the
  news media focuses too much on
  trivial issues, according to the
  Harvard poll.
They might be right…




Recently, the big news of the day centered around
dogs. It came out that Mitt Romney tied his crated
dog to the roof of the family car on a vacation …
…and that Barack Obama ate dog when he was a
boy living in Jakarta.




Is either fact relevant to the election?
Criticism: “Horse race coverage”




Horse race coverage involves news stories
about how successful candidates are
perceived to be doing, what issues they are
winning or losing, and what their next
tactical move will be.
Media ignore real issues
Studies have shown that broadcast media
devote most of their coverage to the
competition between the candidates rather
than providing an explanation of issues and the
candidates' stances on them. Eager to attract
viewers, broadcasters focus on dramatic
moments that highlight candidates' mistakes,
attacks on opponents and suggestions of
scandal or problems.
Coverage is not in-depth enough
Even when the media do provide campaign
coverage, the candidates may not get much
direct airtime. In an academic study of major
network coverage of the 2000 elections, it was
found that the news reporters talked for 74
percent of the time; only 12 percent of the time
did viewers hear the actual candidates' voices
and, when they did, the sound bite averaged
only 7.8 seconds.
BUT, do people even care about issues?
• Many political scientists believe that voters
  decide which candidate to vote for based on a
  visceral connection – i.e. whom could they see
  themselves having a beer with?

• G. Terry Madonna, a political science
  professor and pollster at Franklin & Marshall
  College, offers a good explanation.
Professor Madonna
              argues that…
Three conditions are necessary for issue voting
to occur:
(2)a voter must be aware of the issue and
possess some understanding of it;
(3)then a voter must feel some intensity about
the issue;
(4)finally a voter must perceive a difference
among competing candidates on the issue and
vote on the basis of that perception.
Professor Madonna says…
• Issue voting thus understood poses a stiff challenge to
  the average voter. In short, they must be informed,
  feel strongly, and vote consistently on the basis of
  their knowledge and feelings. Whew!
• It has been estimated that on average about one in
  five voters meets this three-part test--knowledge,
  intensity, and voting follow through. They are the true
  "issue voters," meaning they are informed on
  particular issues, feel strongly about them, and vote on
  the basis of their knowledge and feelings.
• So, some 80 percent of the electorate are not "issue
  voters" and by any measure that is an overwhelming
  proportion of voters. But this does not mean that issue
  voting is unimportant in elections.
Professor Madonna says…
• First, the obvious arithmetic: roughly 20 percent
  of all voters can be decisive in a close election,
  and Pennsylvania statewide elections are
  typically close.
• Furthermore, some voters really do care about
  issues. Polls done by Madonna clearly illustrate
  the saliency of issues like the economy,
  education, health care, and property taxes.
• And so we seemingly have a paradox. Voters care
  about issues--but most of them (80 percent)
  aren't issue voters.
Another problem: Media is biased
• 77% agree or strongly agree that the news media is
  politically biased, according to the Harvard poll

• 55% say media bias is a bigger problem in politics
  than big contributions, according to Rasmussen
  Reports.

• Rasmussen also found in the past presidential
  election: 67 percent of the respondents think most
  media members wanted Obama to win. Just 11
  percent thought most in the media were for his
  opponent, Senator John McCain.
And there's strong evidence
           to support this…
• In 2008, the Democratic Party received a total
  donation of $1,020,816, given by 1,160
  employees of the three major broadcast
  television networks (NBC, CBS, ABC), while the
  Republican Party received only $142,863 via
  193 donations, according to Washington Post.

• Historically, 80 percent of news reporters vote
  Democrat.
Pro-GOP media bias exists, too
                                  Left: Politically conservative shock
                                  jock Rush Limbaugh has the #1 rated
                                  radio show, with more than 15 million
                                  daily listeners.




Right: Fox News Channel is the
top rated cable news network –
ahead of CNN and MSNBC –
and notorious for having a pro-
Republican slant.
BUT … people prefer biased media
Academic studies indicate that most voters tend
to seek out and believe information that
reinforces beliefs that they already hold. They
tune in to broadcasters who present a political
viewpoint similar to their own. Two-thirds of the
electorate -- a figure that coincides with the
number of voters who identify with a particular
party -- says that they have made up their minds
before campaigning even begins.
First Amendment’s impact on elections
In America, free speech is a core value and the press
faces relatively few restrictions. The founders wanted a
nation “for the people, by the people and of the people.”
Therefore, they believed it was essential to have an
unfettered free press. The press have come to be
viewed as another branch
of government whose role is to
be a watchdog for citizens. But
critics believe the press abuses
its power sometimes…
No such thing as privacy
The press will often dig
into a candidate’s
personal life and past. 54
percent of voters believe
such information (such
as Clinton’s affair) speaks
to the candidates’
characters while 46
percent believe it should
be off-limits as it has no
bearing on their ability to
govern.
Obama has come under scrutiny for drug use
during high school, while Romney has been accused
of bullying classmates. Should there be a statue of
limitations on teenage transgressions?
Recent Supreme Court ruling
In 2010, the U.S.’s high court overturned
campaign spending rules and held that the First
Amendment prohibited the government from
restricting independent political expenditures by
corporations and unions. Critics fear the ruling
will allow special interest groups to unfairly
influence the election.
Money wins elections
It’s clear that money counts in U.S. elections.
Since 2000, the average winner in contests for
open House seats has outspent the average
loser by at least $310,000, according to figures
compiled by the nonpartisan Campaign Finance
Institute. In races for open Senate seats, winners
outspent losers, on average, in every year
except 2002.
Money used to buy media
• As a way of communicating more directly with
  voters, candidates buy television and radio
  advertising time. In the 2008 presidential
  election, presidential candidates spent $2.4
  billion, with about 60 percent of it going to
  advertising.
• Many of these ads are negative. See, e.g.,
  http://youtu.be/uFQ0OGaoFjQ
But, lots of transparency…
• Open records laws allow voters to monitor
  who has donated how much to a certain
  politician.
• The media and public interest groups also
  keep a watchful eye on the campaign money
  trail.
• There are easy-to-use websites to look up
  donations.
Too much transparency?
Unlike France, the U.S. does not have a
two-day blackout of media and campaigning
leading up to
the election
results …
which can
cause
problems
In recent years, a controversy has developed
around the media's use of "exit polling," the
media's practice of asking voters as they depart
a polling place how they voted and then using
this information, often based on very small
percentages, to predict a winner. While the exit
polling results, generally, have proven to be
fairly accurate, states on the West Coast, where
voting places close hours after those on the East
Coast, complain that early predictions influence
those who have not yet cast their ballots.
Trust in
 media &
Congress is
  low…

As a result,
   many
Americans
 think it’s
pointless to
   vote.
Voter turnout in
U.S. elections since
1960…

•Presidential
elections attract
more voters
•More voters tend to
favor Democrats
•Americans under 35
don’t vote as much as
older
Voter turnout is much
  higher in France…
Young people don’t follow the
    news, so they’re uniformed…
                   18- to 34-year-olds are not
                   reading newspapers as often
                   older generations did
                   They are also not watching TV
                   news as often
                   Some say they get their news
                   from non-news TV shows
Is America’s
“most trusted
journalist” even
                   They will read news online, but
a journalist?      don’t want to pay for it
Young people don’t vote, so politicians ignore them…
U.S. youth are facing excessive student debt
burdens, grim job prospects and will likely be the
first generation to have a lower standard of living
than the previous one.
Meanwhile, older Americans are receiving
more entitlements from the government than
they paid taxes for – benefits the younger
generations will likely never receive.
Europe is
experiencing
this same
phenomenon…
In France, youth are also less likely to vote…
Speaking of young voters…
US Media and 2012 Elections
Social media
• Social networking sites are playing a bigger
  role in campaign coverage.
• Facebook helped get young people
  (particularly college students) more engaged
  in the 2008 election by sponsoring some
  presidential debates and promoting it on their
  super popular website.
• Many citizen journalists broke stories on their
  blogs that the mainstream media overlooked.
Social media
• And then there's YouTube’s impact: There’s an
  argument to be made that YouTube delivered
  the 2006 U.S. Senate elections to the
  Democrats.

• Two GOP incumbents, George Allen and
  Conrad Burns, went down to defeat after they
  came under the attack of embarrassing
  YouTube videos.
That said, social media is not
Social media   the most important medium in
               the election. That’s because
               people who vote in the U.S.
               tend to be older and they’re
               not on social networks. Many
               of the key “swing states” –
               such as Florida and
               Pennsylvania – have older
               populations. Having a million
               Facebook fans or likes means
               little if your followers are not
               engaged (i.e. voting and
               donating money).
Social media
• The social media also presents challenges for
  journalists.
• Facing a hyper-competitive news environment in
  an era when news travels quickly, many
  journalists now feel pressured to prioritize speed
  over accuracy.
• When covering election news, especially, it
  seems riskier for many media outlets to get left
  behind than to get it wrong.
• There have been many instances of
  misinformation, info taken out of context, etc.
• Do most voters vote based on issues or based on
  personality?
• To what extent should candidates’ personal lives
  and past be off limits?
• Should the press be allowed to report election
  results before the polls close? Does the Internet
  make it a moot point?
• How can we ensure accuracy in an age where
  information spreads as fast as a tweet?
• What can be done to combat voter apathy
  among young people – in the U.S. and Europe?

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US Media and 2012 Elections

  • 2. Barack Obama Mitt Romney Incumbent, Democrat Republican challenger
  • 3. • More likeable • Seen as out of personality touch due to • Killed OBL, ended wealth Iraq War • Flip-flopper • Passed healthcare • Seen as having reform, but will court overturn it? more economic • Hasn’t fixed savvy, according economy or kept to poll. And many promises economy will be #1 issue
  • 4. The latest polls show it’s a close race…
  • 5. A presidential change would be more an Obama loss than a Romney victory
  • 6. Most of Congress is up for re-election…
  • 7. It would be hard to overestimate the importance of mass media in the U.S. electoral process. National television networks reach 99 percent of all American homes, making contact across the entire socioeconomic spectrum. Cable news stations, radio and television talk shows, newspapers, news magazines and Internet sites all provide voters with information about the candidates. The content and emphasis of their coverage are among the most powerful factors in determining how voters perceive the candidates and the issues.
  • 8. USA vs. France: Comparison of people and daily newspapers France: 65 million people, 80 daily newspapers USA: 300 million people, 1400 daily newspapers
  • 9. The first president, George Washington, was afraid to run for a 2nd term due to the negative effects of the press. _________________________ America’s press has always impacted its elections ________________________ John Quincy Adams blamed the press for not supporting him enough when he lost his presidential reelection bid in 1829.
  • 10. Voters see media as influential • A Harvard poll of the previous presidential election found that 82% agree or strongly agree that media coverage has too much influence on who Americans vote for • And, to a large extent, negative coverage appears to be responsible for this influence; • 42% say the media has influenced their vote against a candidate through negative coverage, while only 28% say it has influenced their vote for a candidate through positive coverage.
  • 11. But they don’t trust it… The Harvard poll also found that 62% of those surveyed are distrustful of campaign media coverage.
  • 12. Media focuses on wrong issues • 89% agree or strongly agree that the news media focuses too much on trivial issues, according to the Harvard poll.
  • 13. They might be right… Recently, the big news of the day centered around dogs. It came out that Mitt Romney tied his crated dog to the roof of the family car on a vacation …
  • 14. …and that Barack Obama ate dog when he was a boy living in Jakarta. Is either fact relevant to the election?
  • 15. Criticism: “Horse race coverage” Horse race coverage involves news stories about how successful candidates are perceived to be doing, what issues they are winning or losing, and what their next tactical move will be.
  • 16. Media ignore real issues Studies have shown that broadcast media devote most of their coverage to the competition between the candidates rather than providing an explanation of issues and the candidates' stances on them. Eager to attract viewers, broadcasters focus on dramatic moments that highlight candidates' mistakes, attacks on opponents and suggestions of scandal or problems.
  • 17. Coverage is not in-depth enough Even when the media do provide campaign coverage, the candidates may not get much direct airtime. In an academic study of major network coverage of the 2000 elections, it was found that the news reporters talked for 74 percent of the time; only 12 percent of the time did viewers hear the actual candidates' voices and, when they did, the sound bite averaged only 7.8 seconds.
  • 18. BUT, do people even care about issues? • Many political scientists believe that voters decide which candidate to vote for based on a visceral connection – i.e. whom could they see themselves having a beer with? • G. Terry Madonna, a political science professor and pollster at Franklin & Marshall College, offers a good explanation.
  • 19. Professor Madonna argues that… Three conditions are necessary for issue voting to occur: (2)a voter must be aware of the issue and possess some understanding of it; (3)then a voter must feel some intensity about the issue; (4)finally a voter must perceive a difference among competing candidates on the issue and vote on the basis of that perception.
  • 20. Professor Madonna says… • Issue voting thus understood poses a stiff challenge to the average voter. In short, they must be informed, feel strongly, and vote consistently on the basis of their knowledge and feelings. Whew! • It has been estimated that on average about one in five voters meets this three-part test--knowledge, intensity, and voting follow through. They are the true "issue voters," meaning they are informed on particular issues, feel strongly about them, and vote on the basis of their knowledge and feelings. • So, some 80 percent of the electorate are not "issue voters" and by any measure that is an overwhelming proportion of voters. But this does not mean that issue voting is unimportant in elections.
  • 21. Professor Madonna says… • First, the obvious arithmetic: roughly 20 percent of all voters can be decisive in a close election, and Pennsylvania statewide elections are typically close. • Furthermore, some voters really do care about issues. Polls done by Madonna clearly illustrate the saliency of issues like the economy, education, health care, and property taxes. • And so we seemingly have a paradox. Voters care about issues--but most of them (80 percent) aren't issue voters.
  • 22. Another problem: Media is biased • 77% agree or strongly agree that the news media is politically biased, according to the Harvard poll • 55% say media bias is a bigger problem in politics than big contributions, according to Rasmussen Reports. • Rasmussen also found in the past presidential election: 67 percent of the respondents think most media members wanted Obama to win. Just 11 percent thought most in the media were for his opponent, Senator John McCain.
  • 23. And there's strong evidence to support this… • In 2008, the Democratic Party received a total donation of $1,020,816, given by 1,160 employees of the three major broadcast television networks (NBC, CBS, ABC), while the Republican Party received only $142,863 via 193 donations, according to Washington Post. • Historically, 80 percent of news reporters vote Democrat.
  • 24. Pro-GOP media bias exists, too Left: Politically conservative shock jock Rush Limbaugh has the #1 rated radio show, with more than 15 million daily listeners. Right: Fox News Channel is the top rated cable news network – ahead of CNN and MSNBC – and notorious for having a pro- Republican slant.
  • 25. BUT … people prefer biased media Academic studies indicate that most voters tend to seek out and believe information that reinforces beliefs that they already hold. They tune in to broadcasters who present a political viewpoint similar to their own. Two-thirds of the electorate -- a figure that coincides with the number of voters who identify with a particular party -- says that they have made up their minds before campaigning even begins.
  • 26. First Amendment’s impact on elections In America, free speech is a core value and the press faces relatively few restrictions. The founders wanted a nation “for the people, by the people and of the people.” Therefore, they believed it was essential to have an unfettered free press. The press have come to be viewed as another branch of government whose role is to be a watchdog for citizens. But critics believe the press abuses its power sometimes…
  • 27. No such thing as privacy The press will often dig into a candidate’s personal life and past. 54 percent of voters believe such information (such as Clinton’s affair) speaks to the candidates’ characters while 46 percent believe it should be off-limits as it has no bearing on their ability to govern.
  • 28. Obama has come under scrutiny for drug use during high school, while Romney has been accused of bullying classmates. Should there be a statue of limitations on teenage transgressions?
  • 29. Recent Supreme Court ruling In 2010, the U.S.’s high court overturned campaign spending rules and held that the First Amendment prohibited the government from restricting independent political expenditures by corporations and unions. Critics fear the ruling will allow special interest groups to unfairly influence the election.
  • 30. Money wins elections It’s clear that money counts in U.S. elections. Since 2000, the average winner in contests for open House seats has outspent the average loser by at least $310,000, according to figures compiled by the nonpartisan Campaign Finance Institute. In races for open Senate seats, winners outspent losers, on average, in every year except 2002.
  • 31. Money used to buy media • As a way of communicating more directly with voters, candidates buy television and radio advertising time. In the 2008 presidential election, presidential candidates spent $2.4 billion, with about 60 percent of it going to advertising. • Many of these ads are negative. See, e.g., http://youtu.be/uFQ0OGaoFjQ
  • 32. But, lots of transparency… • Open records laws allow voters to monitor who has donated how much to a certain politician. • The media and public interest groups also keep a watchful eye on the campaign money trail. • There are easy-to-use websites to look up donations.
  • 33. Too much transparency? Unlike France, the U.S. does not have a two-day blackout of media and campaigning leading up to the election results … which can cause problems
  • 34. In recent years, a controversy has developed around the media's use of "exit polling," the media's practice of asking voters as they depart a polling place how they voted and then using this information, often based on very small percentages, to predict a winner. While the exit polling results, generally, have proven to be fairly accurate, states on the West Coast, where voting places close hours after those on the East Coast, complain that early predictions influence those who have not yet cast their ballots.
  • 35. Trust in media & Congress is low… As a result, many Americans think it’s pointless to vote.
  • 36. Voter turnout in U.S. elections since 1960… •Presidential elections attract more voters •More voters tend to favor Democrats •Americans under 35 don’t vote as much as older
  • 37. Voter turnout is much higher in France…
  • 38. Young people don’t follow the news, so they’re uniformed… 18- to 34-year-olds are not reading newspapers as often older generations did They are also not watching TV news as often Some say they get their news from non-news TV shows Is America’s “most trusted journalist” even They will read news online, but a journalist? don’t want to pay for it
  • 39. Young people don’t vote, so politicians ignore them…
  • 40. U.S. youth are facing excessive student debt burdens, grim job prospects and will likely be the first generation to have a lower standard of living than the previous one.
  • 41. Meanwhile, older Americans are receiving more entitlements from the government than they paid taxes for – benefits the younger generations will likely never receive.
  • 43. In France, youth are also less likely to vote…
  • 44. Speaking of young voters…
  • 46. Social media • Social networking sites are playing a bigger role in campaign coverage. • Facebook helped get young people (particularly college students) more engaged in the 2008 election by sponsoring some presidential debates and promoting it on their super popular website. • Many citizen journalists broke stories on their blogs that the mainstream media overlooked.
  • 47. Social media • And then there's YouTube’s impact: There’s an argument to be made that YouTube delivered the 2006 U.S. Senate elections to the Democrats. • Two GOP incumbents, George Allen and Conrad Burns, went down to defeat after they came under the attack of embarrassing YouTube videos.
  • 48. That said, social media is not Social media the most important medium in the election. That’s because people who vote in the U.S. tend to be older and they’re not on social networks. Many of the key “swing states” – such as Florida and Pennsylvania – have older populations. Having a million Facebook fans or likes means little if your followers are not engaged (i.e. voting and donating money).
  • 49. Social media • The social media also presents challenges for journalists. • Facing a hyper-competitive news environment in an era when news travels quickly, many journalists now feel pressured to prioritize speed over accuracy. • When covering election news, especially, it seems riskier for many media outlets to get left behind than to get it wrong. • There have been many instances of misinformation, info taken out of context, etc.
  • 50. • Do most voters vote based on issues or based on personality? • To what extent should candidates’ personal lives and past be off limits? • Should the press be allowed to report election results before the polls close? Does the Internet make it a moot point? • How can we ensure accuracy in an age where information spreads as fast as a tweet? • What can be done to combat voter apathy among young people – in the U.S. and Europe?