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Livestock-Climate Change CRSP Annual Meeting 2011: GSFA/RIVERS Project Update (J. McPeak)
 

Livestock-Climate Change CRSP Annual Meeting 2011: GSFA/RIVERS Project Update (J. McPeak)

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A description of the Livestock-Climate Change CRSP's GSFA/RIVERS Project (Management of River Systems for the Future) and update on the current status of the project. Presentation given by J. McPeak ...

A description of the Livestock-Climate Change CRSP's GSFA/RIVERS Project (Management of River Systems for the Future) and update on the current status of the project. Presentation given by J. McPeak (Syracuse University) at the Livestock-Climate Change CRSP Annual Meeting, Golden, CO, April 26-27, 2011.

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  • Points – Inland Niger Delta is a crucial multi-purpose natural resource for Mali and the region -- fishery, rice, and livestock. Changing flood regimes and vegetative response on floodplains is a under-utilized integrative measure of the climate change (e.g. compared to highly-variable site-specific measures of rainfall and vegetation on rainfed sites. Basic approach is to investigate changes in flood regime using existing hydrological records and vegetative response in the Inland Delat by comparing contemporary vegetation with that mapped by Hiernaux et al. (ILCA) in 1979-82.
  • 1. Characterize changes in flood regime through the use of the existing channel flow data along the Niger, Bani and Diaka. During the 1979-85 period, Hiernaux and Diarra developed a relationship between flood stage in the Niger channel at DiarfaraBe and the flood height in the 7 closely-monitored ecological sites in Mourra. We could use this relationship to show how fluctuations in flow over the period affected flood regime in a particular sub-plain in the Delta. 2. Revisitation of the 183 ecological sites in the Delta as originally assessed by Hiernaux and Diarra in 1979-82 using the same methodology (10m x 10m sampling frame for species composition with a stratified set of six 1 m2 to measure above-ground biomass). 3. Revisitation of the approximately 300 observation points at which the vegetation and land-use type information was recorded in travelling between the above ecological sites. 4. Detailed analyses back in 1979-82 by Hiernaux and Diarra at the seven Moura sites, provide useful information as the regrowth potential of vegetation under different treatment regimes. Understanding regrowth potential is particularly important for estimating the costs and benefits of land-use changes since it is regrowth of perennial native vegetation that makes it most valuable to livestock (compared to minimal regrowth in fields) during the dry season when livestock are most vulnerable. One potential training opportunity would be for a Malian student to be trained and to follow a similar research protocol at the Mourra sites as performed by Hiernaux and Diarrra some 30 years ago (for his/her thesis). THIS ANALYSIS WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR UNDERSTANDING HOW LAND-USE CHANGE AFFECTS LIVESTOCK NUTRITION AND THE CHANGING NEEDS OF FEED SUPPLEMENTATION>
  • Most historical (and contemporary) remotely-sensed imagery is not suitable for identifying rice fields on the floodplain. Use of low-level aerial photography obtained during the 1979-82 period to document land-use situation at key sites at the time of the initial vegetation survey. During 1979-82, low-level aerial photography was obtained for small sections of the floodplain (3 x approximately 200 km2). The prints of these are in procession of Hiernaux.

Livestock-Climate Change CRSP Annual Meeting 2011: GSFA/RIVERS Project Update (J. McPeak) Livestock-Climate Change CRSP Annual Meeting 2011: GSFA/RIVERS Project Update (J. McPeak) Presentation Transcript

  • La Gestion des Systèmes Fluviaux pour l'Avenir (GSFA) aka RIVERS
    Countries: Senegal, Mali
    John McPeak
    Department of Public Administration
    Syracuse University
  • GSFA / RIVERS TEAM
    Universities
    Syracuse University (McPeak)
    University of Wisconsin- Madison (Turner)
    Texas A&M University (Angerer)
    Research Institutes
    Institut Sénégalaise de Recherches Agricoles (ISRA) in Senegal
    Institut d’Economie Rural (IER) in Mali
    Laboratoire des Mécanismes et Transfers en Géologie in France
    NGOs funded by USAID
    Near East Foundation in Douentza, Mali
    CLUSA’s Yaajeende Project based in Tambacounda, Senegal
  • GSFA/ RIVERS
    Three linked research objectives:
    1) Update mapping of Niger Inland Delta, and document vegetation change in this area.
    Seek to identify change and assess climate induced from management induced change.
    2) Transhumance corridor mapping
    Kidira, Matam, and Bakel in Senegal
    Douentza in Mali with Near East Foundation
    Tenenkou in Mali with MLPI-2 (linked project)
    3) Benefit Cost analysis of conversion of riverine range resources into land used for cultivation, particularly irrigated rice cultivation.
  • What have we done so far?
    Transhumance corridor survey forms written, trained enumerators, cleared Human Subjects at SU and Madison.
    MOU signed with ISRA in Senegal.
    MOU signed with CLUSA in Senegal.
    Collaboration established with NEF in Mali.
    1 visit to Senegal and Mali by me, one to Mali and France by Turner.
    Background literature review underway.
    Trip out to Senegal and Mali set up for May for me.
  • Current Project Sites
  • Current Goal of Expanding Irrigation
    Development strategies throughout the rangelands of sub-Saharan Africa have targeted irrigated cultivation in semi-arid and arid zones as a means to transform ‘empty lands’ to valuable cropland
    A Senegal government agricultural program is targeted at “[e]xpanding irrigation and rice cultivation on unused land in the Senegal River Valley…” (USAID, 2010a, p.9).
    In the Mopti region of Mali, Kodio and Traore report by 2002, 42% of the area that traditionally grew the fodder crop bourgouhad been converted to cultivation, mostly of rice.
    Both the Niger and Senegal river valleys have been targeted for increased rice cultivation under USAID’s GFSR program (USAID 2010a, 2010b).
  • Irrigation and Livestock Production
    A review of irrigation projects in Africa by the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) in 2004 found that with regard to planning irrigation systems
    “…little or no thought has been given to the inclusion of livestock production options as a productive and marketable output of investments…” and that these systems “…did not adequately consider water needs of livestock in and around[them]” (p. 19).
    “Inadequate consideration of pastoral livelihood needs has led to reduced access to water resources and aggravated their already extreme poverty. Much conflict among peoples in Africa centers on the competition between pastoralists and immigrant crop producers particularly in dry season grazing reserves.” (p.29)
  • GSFA / RIVERS AS A RESPONSE
    Accept irrigated cultivation is going to expand.
    Work to figure out how to minimize costs, maximize benefits.
    Ensure value of pastoral production is not set at zero, as ‘unused lands’.
  • Cattle Grazing on Harvested Rice Field
    Photo by John McPeak
  • Bourgou (Echinocloa stagnina)
    Photo by LassineDiarra
  • 1) Climate change, changing flood regimes and vegetation change in the inland Niger Delta, Mali
    Using early work by Hiernaux et al. in Delta in 1979-82.
    Changes in vegetative composition over the period
    Land-use change estimates
    Evaluation of the regrowth potential (post flood season) of the different vegetation types.
  • Fieldwork for Vegetation Change being Planned
    Characterize changes in flood regime through the use of the existing channel flow data along the Niger, Bani and Diaka.
    Re-visitation of the 183 ecological sites in the Delta as originally assessed by Hiernaux and Diarra in 1979-82 using the same methodology.
    Re-visitation of the approximately 300 observation points at which the vegetation and land-use type information was recorded in travelling between the above ecological sites.
    Duplication of experiments by performed by Hiernaux and Diarra in 1979-82 to investigate the dry-season regrowth potential of vegetation under different treatment regimes. Forage availability in the hot dry season is the limiting factor for livestock productivity in the region .
    - This work would provide research opportunities for Malian students.
  • Analysis of Vegetation Change
    Using channel flow-floodplain depth relationships previously established for sections of the floodplain (where detailed vegetation analysis was performed), identify the role of changing flood regime on vegetation.
    Vegetation change analysis using comparison in species composition at 483 ecological sites
    Evaluation of land-use change for sections of the floodplain using low-level aerial photography obtained during 1979-82 as a base. Develop a technique (multi-date to identify different seasonal reflectance trajectories) to use contemporary high resolution satellite imagery to map rice fields on the floodplain over these same areas.
  • 2) Transhumance Corridor Mapping
    From training documents by Matthew Turner
  • THEN VISIT EACH SITE NAMED
    Formulaire Cart_Trans2: Gîte d’Étape Date __________ Référence GPS _________
    Informateur ____________________ Latitude : ______________ Longitude :___________
    There are more questions, but this gives the idea.
  • Then Hold Community Meetings
    Present Results
    Describe issues of multiple use
    Conflict management potential – note 1989 Senegal Mauritania conflict.
    Decentralization of management of natural resources
    Dioro management issues
    Social complexity of the place is astonishing
  • Status Transhumance Mapping
    Trained 8 people in Mopti, Mali in January
    Research Ethics
    GPS use
    Use of the Forms
    Project goals
    Turner visited the Mali enumerators in March to check progress.
    I am off to check on the enumerators in Senegal and Mali next month.
  • Benefit Cost
    Review of what is already out there
    Senegal, IDA (Institute for Development Anthropology – many people from SUNY Binghamton) project has some details.
    The focus was more comparing irrigated cultivation with recessional cultivation.
    Major issue was management of dams.
    IDA findings are scattered.
    Mali, MLPI-2 is getting up and running on NIRS feed testing and nutritional analysis of feeds.
    Ground truthing lies ahead once feed equations are up and working.
  • BENEFIT COST in IDA work
    Salem-Murdock, Muneera et al. “Landuse, Labor Dynamics, and Household Production Systems: The Senegal River Valley.” Institute for
    Development Anthropology Working Paper 94. Binghamton, NY. 1993. Table 14, page 43
  • BENEFIT COST in IDA work
    Salem-Murdock, Muneera et al. “Landuse, Labor Dynamics, and Household Production Systems: The Senegal River Valley.” Institute for
    Development Anthropology Working Paper 94. Binghamton, NY. 1993. Table 16, page 45
  • Benefit Cost in IDA work
    Salem-Murdock, Muneera et al. “Landuse, Labor Dynamics, and Household Production Systems: The Senegal River Valley.” Institute for
    Development Anthropology Working Paper 94. Binghamton, NY. 1993. Table 10, page 29
  • Benefit Cost
    Working towards linking these all together.
    Cost to livestock production based on not going to a point on the transhumance corridor.
    Start with a parcel / pixel unit of analysis, either livestock or cultivation has a return per unit of land (Behnke and Kerven work in Awash)
  • Benefit Cost
    Idea I am trying to work towards is more complex.
    First, let GSFA define a transhumance corridor.
    That is, take the economic value of this corridor in livestock production in a year, calculated by MLPI-2 and GSFA research.
    Say point 19 is a river basin fall back zone in the dry season for example.
    Take 19 out of livestock production, how much does the economic value of livestock production on the whole corridor decrease?
    Compare that to the economic value of point 19 used in cultivation based on IDA, current other work in the area, Yaajeende estimates.
    Which is better?
    Can we even do this?
    If you take 19 out of the system, it impacts the economic value of the whole corridor.
  • GSFA / RIVERS
    We will see if we can figure out how to do this in a defensible manner.
    That is where we are, and where we are (hopefully) headed with this work.