Washington DC Regional Economic Analysis April 2014
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Washington DC Regional Economic Analysis April 2014

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Dr. Stephen J. Fuller of George Mason University's Center for Regional Analysis gave a presentation to the Democratic Business Council of Northern Virginia (DemBiz.org) on April 18, 2014. These are ...

Dr. Stephen J. Fuller of George Mason University's Center for Regional Analysis gave a presentation to the Democratic Business Council of Northern Virginia (DemBiz.org) on April 18, 2014. These are the updated slides from the presentation.

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Washington DC Regional Economic Analysis April 2014 Washington DC Regional Economic Analysis April 2014 Presentation Transcript

  • The Democratic Business Council of Northern Virginia April 18, 2014 The Washington Metropolitan Region Its Economic Outlook and Future Challenges Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University
  • 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1982-Q3 1991-Q1 2001-Q4 2009-Q2 Quarters After Trough %ChangeinGDP* Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Four Recessions Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis *in 1992 or 2009 Chained Dollars
  • Contributions to Post Recession Recoveries Average Growth After 18 Quarters Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 4.8 3.2 3.1 2.4 3.0 2.2 2.1 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 1982-Q3 1991-Q1 2001-Q4 2009-Q2 Recession GDP Personal Consumption Residential Investment ExportsAvg % Chg
  • Decreasing Role of Residential Investment % of GDP 18 Quarters Post-Recession Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 3.4% 5.0% 3.5% 4.0% 5.2% 5.7% 2.7% 3.1% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 PercentofGDP Quarters After Start of Recession 1982-Q3 1991-Q1 2001-Q4 2009-Q2
  • U.S. Leading Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Mfg N-Mfg ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices Source: Institute for Supply Management
  • 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 100 Consumer Confidence Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Expectations Current Situation
  • - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 30-Yr 10-Yr Treas Fed Interest Rates 2001 - 2019 Forecast > > > > Source: IHS Global Insight April 8, 2014
  • 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 Existing (Left Axis) New (Right Axis) U.S. New and Existing Home Sales (000s) (000s) Source: National Association of Home Builders (New), National Association of Realtors (Existing)
  • Residential Construction and Resales Forecasts (millions of Units) Year Housing Starts Existing House Sales 2005 2.073 7.076 2011 0.612 4.278 2012 0.783 4.661 2013 0.929 5.073 2014 1.045 5.039 2015 1.389 5.662 2016 1.582 5.658 2017 1.603 5.428 2018 1.602 5.384 Source: IHS Global Insight “US Executive Summary” April 8, 2014
  • -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 2007 – 2015 % Forecast > > Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Global Insight April 8, 2014
  • The Washington Economy: Impacts of the Recession and the Sequester
  • -4 -2 0 2 4 6 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 % Source: IHS Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP 2001 – 2013 – 2018 Washington U.S.
  • Recession Impacts • GRP declined 0.8% in 2008 • The region’s lost 178,100 jobs Sequester+ Impacts • Federal procurement $s down by 14.5% • There are 21,200 fewer federal jobs • Federal payroll is down 4.8% or by $2 billion
  • Federal Government Washington MSA -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2002 2005 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan (000s) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Mar-14 Total: 364.4 Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
  • WMSA Payroll Job Change: Private Sector The Great Recession and Recovery -4 -7 -10 -12 -10 -8 -48 -34 -23 0 -23 -60 -40 -20 0 Transp. & Util. Wlse Trade Manufacturing Information Financial Other Services Construction Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade Educ & Health Svcs Prof. & Bus. Svcs (000s) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1 0 0 0 7 10 15 50 22 48 32 0 20 40 60 Total -178 Total 185 Aug 2008-Feb 2010 Feb 2010-Mar 2014
  • Professional & Business Services Washington MSA -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2002 2005 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan (000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Mar-14 Total: 696.1Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Prof & Bus Svcs Prof, Sci & Tech Svcs Management Admin & Waste Mgt Aug-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis WMSA Payroll Job Change from Aug-2008 Professional & Business Services As measured in January of each year(000s)
  • -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Health & Educ Svcs Educ. Svcs Health Svcs Ambulatory Health Svcs Hospitals Aug-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis WMSA Payroll Job Change from Aug-2008 Education & Health Services As measured in January of each year(000s)
  • -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Leisure & Hospitality Food & Drinking Places Accommodation Arts & Rec Aug-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis WMSA Payroll Job Change from Aug-2008 Leisure & Hospitality As measured in January of each year(000s)
  • -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 Retail Department Stores Transportation & Utilities Wholesale Trade Aug-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis WMSA Payroll Job Change from Aug-2008 Trade, Transportation & Utilities As measured in January of each year (000s)
  • -45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 Other Services Manufacturing Information Svcs Construction Aug-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis WMSA Payroll Job Change from Aug-2008 Construction, Mfg, Info & Other Services As measured in January of each year(000s)
  • -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 Financial Activities Finance & Insurance Credit & Related Real Estate & Leasing Aug-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis WMSA Payroll Job Change from Aug-2008 Financial Activities As measured in January of each year(000s)
  • Washington Metropolitan Area Job Change by Wage Category between 2008 to 2013 (60) (40) (20) 0 20 40 60 80 Lower Wage Mid-Wage Higher-Wage Thousands 2008-2009 2010-2013 Sources: EMSI 2013.3 & GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • The Washington Economy: 2013 Performance
  • 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: 2012 – 2013 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 (000s) Washington + 30,300 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: Mar 2013 – Mar 2014 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 (000s) Washington +5,500 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Annual Job Change Washington MSA, 2002-2014 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 2002 2005 2008 (000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Job Change by Sector Mar 2013 – Mar 2014 Washington MSA 0 0 -3 -3 2 1 1 9 6 8 8 -11 -12 (20.0) (10.0) - 10.0 20.0 30.0 Transp. & Util. Wlse Trade Manufacturing Information Financial Other Services Construction Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade State & Local Govt Educ & Health Svcs Federal Govt. Prof. & Bus. Svcs (000s) Total = 5,500 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Job Change by Sector Feb 2014 – Mar 2014 Washington MSA 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 7 1 4 1 -1 5 (20.0) (10.0) - 10.0 20.0 30.0 Transp. & Util. Wlse Trade Manufacturing Information Financial Other Services Construction Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade State & Local Govt Educ & Health Svcs Federal Govt. Prof. & Bus. Svcs (000s) Total = +15,700 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Annual Job Change District of Columbia, 2002-2014 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2002 2005 2008(000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Job Change by Sector Mar 2013 – Mar 2014 District of Columbia 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 2 1 7 -6 1 (20.0) (10.0) - 10.0 20.0 30.0 Transp. & Util. Wlse Trade Manufacturing Information Financial Other Services Construction Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade State & Local Govt Educ & Health Svcs Federal Govt. Prof. & Bus. Svcs (000s) Total 3,700 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Job Change by Sector Feb 2014 – Mar 2014 District of Columbia 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 2 0 0 1 0 1 (20.0) (10.0) - 10.0 20.0 30.0 Transp. & Util. Wlse Trade Manufacturing Information Financial Other Services Construction Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade State & Local Govt Educ & Health Svcs Federal Govt. Prof. & Bus. Svcs (000s) Total 3,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Annual Job Change Suburban Maryland, 2002-2014 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2002 2005 2008(000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Job Change by Sector Mar 2013 – Mar 2014 Suburban Maryland 2 0 -1 -1 0 0 -3 6 2 6 2 -1 -4 (20.0) (10.0) - 10.0 20.0 30.0 Transp. & Util. Wlse Trade Manufacturing Information Financial Other Services Construction Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade State & Local Govt Educ & Health Svcs Federal Govt. Prof. & Bus. Svcs (000s) Total 7,400 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Job Change by Sector Feb 2014 – Mar 2014 Suburban Maryland 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 2 1 2 0 0 2 (20.0) (10.0) - 10.0 20.0 30.0 Transp. & Util. Wlse Trade Manufacturing Information Financial Other Services Construction Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade State & Local Govt Educ & Health Svcs Federal Govt. Prof. & Bus. Svcs (000s) Total 5,100 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Annual Job Change Northern Virginia, 2002-2014 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2002 2005 2008(000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Job Change by Sector Mar 2013 – Mar 2014 Northern Virginia -1 0 -1 -1 1 1 3 0 2 6 1 -4 -6 (20.0) (10.0) - 10.0 20.0 30.0 Transp. & Util. Wlse Trade Manufacturing Information Financial Other Services Construction Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade State & Local Govt Educ & Health Svcs Federal Govt. Prof. & Bus. Svcs (000s) Total 800 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Job Change by Sector Feb 2014 – Mar 2014 Northern Virginia 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 0 1 0 0 3 (20.0) (10.0) - 10.0 20.0 30.0 Transp. & Util. Wlse Trade Manufacturing Information Financial Other Services Construction Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade State & Local Govt Educ & Health Svcs Federal Govt. Prof. & Bus. Svcs (000s) Total 6,700 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 8.1 – DC 6.7 – U.S. 5.2 – SMD 5.1 – MSA 4.2 - NVA Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area, 2007-2014 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US – Seasonally Adjusted)
  • Economic Outlook for the Washington Metropolitan Area
  • Washington Metropolitan Area Gross Regional Product, 2013-2018 (in billions of 2005$s) Region 2013 Share 2018 Share % Change Metro $391.2 100.0 $458.8 100.0 17.3 District 92.7 23.7 104.5 22.8 12.7 SubMD 110.3 28.2 129.5 28.2 17.4 NoVA 187.1 47.8 223.5 48.7 19.4 __________________________________________ Source: IHS Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis The Washington metropolitan area includes Jefferson County, WV and is included in the total GRP values.
  • Principal Sources of Job and GRP Growth in the Washington Area, 2013-2018 (in thousands) Growth Job % of Total Average Value Sectors Change Job Change Added per Job* Prof. & Bus. Ser. 144.5 48.8 $158,211 Construction 51.9 17.5 $91,482 Education/Health 35.2 11.9 $59,938 Hospitality Services 27.1 9.1 $43,036 State and Local 19.6 6.6 $60,099 Retail Trade 13.6 4.6 $60,981 Sub-Total 291.9 98.5 $93,347 Overall Total 296.4 100.0 $135,544 Sources: IHS Global Insight; GMU Center for Regional Analysis * in 2005$s
  • Job and GRP Gains and Losses for the Washington Area’s Other Sectors, 2013-2018 (in thousands) Job % of Total Average Value Change Job Change Added per Job Federal Gov’t - 22.8 - 7.7 $141,894 Other Services 2.1 0.7 $102,734 Financial Services - 1.3 - 0.4 $591,253 Information Services 6.3 2.1 $549,993 Manufacturing 1.5 0.5 $103,723 Transportation 9.3 3.1 $133,796 Wholesale Trade 7.3 2.5 $193,924 Sub-Totals 4.5 1.5 $220,696 Overall Total 296.4 100.0 $135,544 Sources: IHS Global Insight; GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 % Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis Economic Outlook (GRP), 2001-2018 Washington Area and Sub-State Areas (Annual % Change) DC SM MSA NV
  • Thank You Questions cra.gmu.edu