5 feb 2011 B P Yadav Director IMD

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5 feb 2011 B P Yadav Director IMD

  1. 1. Modernizing Weather Monitoring/ Forecasting Infrastructure B.P. Yadav Director
  2. 2. Presentation Lay out Introduction Weather services  Monitoring Services  Forecasting Services  Warning Services Modernizing Weather Services Capacity building Network upgradation Forecast Development Projects Public Weather Services Challenges Conclusion
  3. 3. This Mandate is in tune with the objectives of the World l Se ca gi s & ve Meteorological Organization lo n re and is echoed in the oroati o st e v a wa w rn ea Mandates of several et er ec ing M bs INDIA M T OR OGICAL ther r E E OL National Meteorological O Fo services DE ART E P M NTEar thqu Studi ices l Serv ogica ake es atol &S Clim esi m MANDATE i ci ty Research
  4. 4. North Region East Region North East Region Central Region West Region South Region  National Weather Forecasting Centre at New Delhi Regional Centres Delhi, Kolkata, Guwahati, Nagpur, Mumbai, Chennai Pune Centre for Research /Training and surface instrumentation
  5. 5. Meteorological Centres 1. Srinagar 2. Chandigarh 3. Shimla  4. Dehra Dun 5. Lucknow  6. Patna  7. Itanagar  8. Jaipur 9. Ranchi 10. Agartatala 11. Ahmedabad 12. Bhopal 13. Raipur 14. Bhuvaneshwar 15. Hyderabad 16. Bangalore 17. Thiruvananthapuram 18. Panjim
  6. 6. Historical Data Available in IMD
  7. 7. IMD’s Forecast Spectrum Public Weather Local Forecast and nowcast Short, medium and extended range Forecast Long Range Forecast of Monsoon Tropical Cyclone Forecast & Warnings Warnings related to all other Natural Disasters Climate Forecast services Sea State Forecast -Shipping & Fisheries Coastal Zone Forecasts Forecasts to Aviation Forecasts for Agriculture - Agro-advisory Services, Crop-Yield forecast Flood & Drought Forecasts Customized Forecasts to different Sectors- Power, Tourism, Defense, Adventure, Road/Railway transports, Public Utility, VIP functions, Strategic operations, Space, etc
  8. 8. India Meteorological Department
  9. 9. Major Services to different Sectors Cyclone Warning Flood Meteorological Warning Strong Winds Very Heavy Rainfall Monitoring of rain storm over catchment areas Storm Surge Aerial averaging Coastal Inundation Hydrological Agro Meteorological Management Advisory Maintenance of Crop Management Reservoir Levels Advisories Design of Pest & Disease Advisories Hydrological Projects District Level Meteorological Forecast Fisheries Navigational Warning Advisory Adverse weather Adverse Weather Sea state Sea State (Coastal) (High Seas)
  10. 10. Major Services to different Sectors Aviation Heavy Rainfall & Meteorological Fog Forecast Forecast Route & Terminal Safety of culverts & Aerodrome forecast bridges Weather hazards warning Driver’s visibility Flight Planning information Environmental Mountain Monitoring Meteorological Environmental Forecast clearances for industries Cloud burst etc Flash floods Aerosol, Acid rain, Snow & Avalanche Ozone, Atmospheric radiation Earthquake Storm Surge Detection Warning Location & Magnitude Storm Surge Seismic Zonation / Astronomical tide Microzonation Coastal bathymetry Seismic risk effects Assessment
  11. 11. Major Services to different Sectors Meteorological Meteorological Services for Services to Defence Mountaineers Troop & logistic movements Warning for hazardous Upper air observations weather en-route Meteorological Meteorological Services to Services for Antarctic Spacecraft Expeditions Launching Comprehensive Identification of favorable weather services time window for launching Meteorological Positional Astronomy Services for Astronomical ephemeris Pilgrimage Indian calendar & Rashtriya Panchang Amarnath Yatra, Eclipses & Astronomical Kumbha mela etc phenomena
  12. 12. Spatial and Temporal domains of Forecast Nowcasting for next 6-12 hours (Venue/ location specific) Short Range for next 72 hours (Location/District/ State/Met Sub-division) Medium Range for next 3-7 days (District) Extended range for 10-15 days (Met Subdivision/State/ Homogeneous regions) Long range for month/season (Homogeneous regions/country)
  13. 13. Two Stage LRF System for SW Monsoon Rainfall April June All India Update for All All India June – September India July , Aug, Rainfall June – September Sep Rainfall RainfallEfforts are on to make monthlyand seasonal forecast at Met-subdivision/ State level June – SeptemberLRF for North East Monsoon Rainfall for FourRain and winter precipitation Homogeneousalso prepared Regions
  14. 14. Monthly Probability Forecast1) NCEP CFS coupled model forecast / 60 ensemble members used.2) Monthly Probability of Tmax, Tmin and Rainfall for next month
  15. 15. Weekly anomaly of Maximum and Minimum1) Generated on Friday with validity from Mon-Sun, & Mon-Sun2) Based on ocean- atmosphere coupled models forecast from other centres
  16. 16. Weekly anomaly of rainfall
  17. 17. Short Range ForecastsState/Met Subdivision level fromHQ(District/Location specific) fromRMC/MCIssued 4 timesGeneral weather for 3 days with2 days outlook Rainfall/Snowfall, Temperature(cold/Heat wave Thunderstorms,Squall, Hailstorm, Fog/Frost,Cyclone forecasting Track,intensity, Landfall, point ( severeweather warnings )
  18. 18. 100 city forecast • Local forecast for 100 cities all over India has been introduced during 2009 • Local forecast is issued 4 times a day • Forecasts are available in IMD’s web site • Forecasts are provided to All India Radio, Door Darshan and local press • Extreme weather and climatological informations for these cities are also available in IMD’s website
  19. 19. Nowcasting
  20. 20. Modernisation of weather services
  21. 21. F improving the quality of Weather Forecasting Systemto be or IMD’s Operational service four segments needstrengthened Observations Communication Analyses & Forecasting Dissemination Surface Observations Central / State Govt/ Media/ Public Manned (559) + Automatic (550+1350) Delhi Stations Data-flow at Three Hourly Northern Intervals on 24x7 Mode Hemispheric Upper-Air Analysis Centre State Observations Level Pune (62 PB stations + 39 Regional Weather Central Met. RS/RW) Telecom Centres Aircraft Reports IMD, Delhi Hub (RTH) LAFS NWP Ship Reports forecasts Airport Ocean Buoys data Met. Data ported to (Deployed by Dept. of NCMRWF for Offices Ocean Development) medium range weather forecasts Satellite Observations Sat. Met Division, IMD Regional Centres – 6 (Deployed by Department of Space) Cyclone Warning Centres - 6 Radar Global Networks Data
  22. 22. Modernisation programme of IMD1. Forecasting and PWS2. Satellite products3. Doppler Weather Radars (56) Phase I Phase II4. Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) 550 4005. Automatic Rain gauges (ARG) 1350 20006. Airport Modernization7. Real Time Communication8. High power computing system9. Location specific forecast and now-casting
  23. 23. AUTOMATIC WEATHER STATIONS (AWS)
  24. 24. HPCS and NWP - new vistas in NWP 14 Tf 750 processorsGlobal Model 45 km Upto 7 daysRegional Model 27 km/ Upto 3 daysbigger domain 9 kmRegional Model 3 km 6-24 hrslocal domain
  25. 25. IMD Operational NWP models
  26. 26. Programme for improving forecast skills Improvement in forecast accuracy for high impact weather phenomena is of paramount importance in disaster warning Areas of concern Monsoon Cyclonic storms Thunderstorms Fog Heavy rainfall
  27. 27. Doppler Weather Radars Phase I : 2008-10 Phase II : 2011-12Doppler Weather RadarsPhase I – 12+2MumbaiGoaNagpurDelhiLucknowPatnaBhopalNagpurMohanbariAgartalaParadeepKaraikalPhase II - 42
  28. 28. Immediate Short-range Forecasting Strategy at RMC and MC in IMD RMC-MC: Very high-resolution (~3km) double nest operational model forecast generation for 2 days Strom scale model with ~ 1km resolution for 24 hours forecast 3 hourly cycle for specific event Assimilation of region specific special observations e.g. DWR
  29. 29. Modernisation of Forecasting System : Synergie Global plotting Conditional plotting Profile Gauges Plane trajectories
  30. 30. Modernization of PWS system PWS system provides a automatic way to:• Design the product• Generate the product• Disseminate the product• It will help to deliver automatically the tailor- made meteorological products and services at the right time and in the right format as per requirement of variety of end-users.
  31. 31. Multi HazardWarning System• Thundersquall with heavy rain over Assam , Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh & NMMT• Moderate thundersquall over West Bengal , Bihar Jharkhand, Chattisgarh and Orissa .• Isolated dust-storm over Rajasthan.
  32. 32. Modernisation ofAgro Meteorological Services
  33. 33. Important milestonesAgrimet Division (1932)FWB (1945)AAS (1976)IAAS (2008)
  34. 34. Agromet products and Servic es Agromet Advisory Bulletins Crop Weather Outlooks Crop yield forecasts (for Kharif & Rabi Crops) Crop Weather Models Crop Weather Calendars Fortnightly Aridity Anomaly Maps Warnings for Pests and Diseases Drought monitoring
  35. 35. AGROMET ADVISOY SERVICE 23 State Agromet Service Centre in collaboration with SAUs Agro-advisory preparation - Monday & Thursday Composite Agro-advisory preparation- Tuesday & Friday Dissemination- AIR, Doordarshan, Print media, Website
  36. 36. Agro-Meteorological Field Units (AMFUs) 130 units co-located with SAUs & ICAR institutes Prepare district specific agro- advisory bulletins (Tuesday & Friday) Nodal Officer + Advisory Board Zonal Composite bulletin preparation Crop Weather Models Advisory Dissemination Feedback Economic Impact Assessment Annual Review Meetings Awareness & user interaction
  37. 37. District Level Agro-Met Advisory Service System IMD PREPARATION OF DISTRICT Agro-climate level WISE MEDIUM RANGE agro-met data WEATHER FORECAST BY STATE MET CENTRE 130 AG.MET. FIELD UNITS PREPARATION OF District-wiseDISTRICT SPECIFIC Agro-met dataAGRO-ADVISORIES FOR CONCERNED AGRO-CLIMATIC DISTRICT LEVEL AGENCIES (DAO/KVK/ATMA/NGOs) DISSEMINATION OF DISTRICT LEVEL Feedback analysis AGRO-ADVISORIES FARMERS (THROUGH MEDIA AGENCIES, IT SERVICE, PERSONAL CONTACT)
  38. 38. District Level Agro-Met Advisory Service System TIER 1 Apex Policy Planning Body TIER 2 National Agro Met Service HQ (Execution) TIER 3 State Agro Met Centres~28 coordination/monitoring TIER 4 AMFUs Agro Climatic Zone Level ~ Drivers of Integration- 127 Need for Crop specific TIER 5 District Level Extension & District Level Advisory Training and Village Level Outreach.Input management as advisory
  39. 39. Flow Chart for Preparation & Utilization of districtlevel forecast for Agro-met Advisory Cen t r al St at e Agr om et For ecast i n g Advisor y Ser vice Agr o- m et eor ological Of f ice ( NHAC) Field Unit s Unit s & Nat i on al Recei v e di st r ict l ev el Ag r om et • Pr epar e d ist r ict level f or ecast f r om t h e St at e Adv i sor y w eat her f or ecast and Agr o m et Adv isor y Ser v i ce Com m un icat e t he sam e Cent r e t o AMFUs Uni t f or pr ear at i on of Ver if y locat ion specif i c di st r i ct l ev el ag r o Provide Basic Data and w eat her f or ecast as w el l adv i sor i es. as p r ovide f eed b ack t o district level forecast of NW P gr oups. all the relevant meteorological parameters (rainfall, temperature, humidity, wind, sunshine etc.)
  40. 40. IMD Multi-model Ensemble (MME) based District level Forecasts Parameters:  Rainfall  Max and Min temperature Total cloud cover Surface Relative humidity Surface Wind
  41. 41. Multimodel Super Ensemble TechniqueStep-1 Generation of Multi-Analysis Weights NCEP JMA ECMWF NCMRWF UKMO Observed Gridded Field Weight for each grid of each Model (W)
  42. 42. Generation of Multi-model ForecastsStep-2 NCEP JMA ECMWF NCMRWF UKMO Forecast (F)= WiFi + D D= Value addition
  43. 43. Operational communication linkage between Agromet Advisory Service Unit and end-users (farmers) for effective communication Forecast from IMD, New Delhi State Met Centres Agromet Advisory Bulletin by AMFUs State Agril. Dept. SMS on mobile Personal Contact Postal Contact Farmer KVK Television Radio News Papers
  44. 44. Avoidpesticideapplication tothe crops inBhatinda,Patiala,Jalandharand Ropar.Postponefertilizerapplicationat Gurdaspurand Patialadue toexcessrainfall.
  45. 45. Status of district bulletins539 District Level Agromet advisory bulletins are being prepared and uploaded in the website of Agrimet Division (http://imdagrimet.gov.in) State Name Total State Name Total Andaman and Nicobar 1 Madhya Pradesh 50 Andhra Pradesh 23 Maharashtra 31 Arunachal Pradesh 13 Manipur 9 Assam 23 Meghalaya 7 Bihar 28 Mizoram 8 Chhattisgarh 15 Nagaland 8 Delhi 1 Orissa 17 Gujarat 25 Punjab 17 Haryana 28 Rajasthan 32 Himachal Pradesh 12 Tamil Nadu 29 Jammu and Kashmir 12 Tripura 4 Jharkhand 24 Uttar Pradesh 63 Karnataka 22 Uttarakhand 6 Kerala 14 West Bengal 17 52
  46. 46. Drought Monitoring• Monitoring Meteorological drought.• Preparation of Drought Climatology• Delineation and identification of Drought Prone areas Monitoring Agricultural drought conditions during SW and NE monsoon seasons by preparing aridity anomaly maps.
  47. 47. Dissemination of Agro-advisories
  48. 48. 1. Mass Mode of Dissemination - All India radio - Television - Print Media 2. Outreach at Village level - Ministry of IT Internet based Village Connectivity - Web Pages: IMD, SAUs, ICAR Web Pages - Mobile Phones (SMS & IVRS)3. Human face for advisory dissemination - KVK (ICAR): Training + interaction - DAO (SDA): Coordinate Farm inputs with Line Function Dept. in rhythm of weather forecast - NGOs & other intermediary groups - Awareness Programme
  49. 49. Dissemination through MobileOngoing projects of dissemination - Reuter Market Light (RML) - Handygo - Vritti Solutions - IFFCO Kisan Sanchar Limited (IKSL) - MahaAgri - Directly by AMFUsProposed projects of dissemination - Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) - Common Service Centre (CSC) - NABARD - NOKIA
  50. 50. Dissemination of AAS through AIR,TV and NewspapersState AIR Doordarshan NewspaperAndhra Pradesh Anantapur Radio station ATP Channel. Eenadu,Vaartha,Sakshi,Andhrajyothi, Duration of 10 minutes Andhra prabha and Andhra bhoomi under Frequency of broadcast: 107.1MHZ different headings viz., Vatavaranam- Vyavasayasalahalu Rythulaku vatavarana suchanalu, salahalu. Vatavarana samacharam rythulaku suchanalu.Assam All India Radio, Jorhat Doordarshan Kendra, Dibrugarh., 1 hr Asamiya Khabar All India Radio, Dibrugarh, 5 min, It utilized the AAB in formulating agricultural Amar Asom The AABs have been regularly broadcast in regional capsules in their regular programmes on Twice a week (Wed & Saturday) language at 6.15 pm on every Wednesday and Friday. agriculture from January, 2002 at 6.25-7.30 Ajir Paharidoot b ) Solangdo (both in AIR,Nagaon pm. Assamese)Arunachal Pradesh AIR Tezu (6.05 pm-6.30 pm)-25 minutes daily List of TV station with duration and ArunachalTimes Newspaper, AIR Tawang (6.05 pm-6.30 pm)-25 minutes frequency of telecast of DAAS bulletin- AIR Ziro (6.05 pm-6.30 pm)-25 minutes Doordarshan AIR Pasighat (6.05 pm-6.30 pm)-25 minutes Kendra, Itanagar AIR Itanagar (6.05 pm-6.30 pm)-25 minutes, daily in Farm & Home Section at MW : 444.4 mt 675 KHzChattisgarh AIR Jagdalpur. DAAS bulletin being broadcast in Kisan Krishi Darshan programme on Thursday 5:40 Highwat Channel, Dainik Bhaskar Press, Wadi programme as per coverage everyday except on PM on Bastar coverage through transmitter. Hari Bhoomi Press, Dandkarnaya press, Sunday (7:21-8:00) PM Doodarshan Raipur Nav Bharat Press, Nai Duniyam Amrit AIR, Raipur Sandesh, etc. Dainik Swadesh (All Raipur) Navgharat (Bilaspur) Nayee Duniya - (Bhilai),Gujarat Rajkot - Kesari, Divya Bhashkar, Sandesh, Gujarat Samachar, Phool Chhab, Akilla etc. Kesari publish the bulletins regularly and paper publish them occasionally.Haryana AIR Hisar once in a week Kisan vani programme DD Hisar Once in a week Kissan programme 1.Nabhchhor b) 91.2 FM Community Radio station CCS Haryana and some time telecast in local news. 2.PunjabKeshri agricultural University Hisar on twice in a week Sity Hulchal: Local cable channel , Extreme 3.DainikTribune 10minutes. weather events and weather information 4.DainikBhaskar AIR Rohtak once in a week Kisan Vani programme telecast in twice in a week 5.DainikJagran 6.AmarUjala 7. HaribhumiHimachal AIR SHIMLA : DDK SHIMLA : On Every Tuesday in KISAN AMAR UJALA, DIVYA HIMACHAL, APKAPradesh On Every Tuesday in KRISHI JAGAT Program at 7:32- JAGAT program at 5:00-5:02pm FAISLA, DENIK JAGARN, PUNJAB 7:34 pm and On Next day again in Sunehrey Kirney As special report as and when required. KESARI,JANSATTA and DENIK BHASKAR. Program at 2:02-2:04pm LOCAL CITY CABLE: ENGLISH- The Tribune, The Indian on Every Tuesday and Friday in the news express and Hindustan times after every 1 hr starting from evening till next day evening. Contd…
  51. 51. Display of District Level AAS bulletins in different websitesSr. No. AMFU station Website addresses 1 Basar https://sites.google.com/site/iaasbasar/ 2 Rahuri http://mpkv.mah.nic.in 3 Ambikapur http://igau.edu.in 4 Namakkal www.tanuvas.ac.in 5 Jodhpur www.cazri.res.in 6 Delhi www.iari.res.in 7 Solan www.yspuniversity.ac.in 9 Dantiwada www.sdau.edu.in 10 Jorhat http://192.168.99.1/dee/aaservices.php, http://www.aau.ac.in/dee/aaservices.php 11 Hyderabad www.agromet.ap.nic.in 12 Palampur http://www.hillagric.ernet.in/info/kisano_ke_liye_soochna/index.htm 13 Raichur www.uasraichur.edu.in 14 Srinagar www.skuastkashmir.ac.in 15 Ranchi www.sameti.org, ww.baujharkhand.org 16 Junagarh www.jau.in 17 Hissar http://hau.ernet.in/coa/agromet.htm,http://hau.ernet.in/coa/agromet_pub.htm 18 Jagdalpur www.cropweatheroutlook.org, www.igau.edu.in 19 Kanniwadi www.oddanchatrammarket.com 20 Modipuram http://www.svbpmeerut.ac.in 21 Raichur uasraichur.edu.in/info/infofile 22 Manipur www.mosdac.gov.in, www.icar.org.in Contd…
  52. 52. Dissemination of Advisory through SMS under PPP ModeMaharashtra Reuter Market Light is having presence in other 8 statesReuter Market Light 119116 also.Handygo 500 Madhya Pradesh 7471State Government, Maharashtra 26000Vritti Solutions 2300 Karnataka 7784 Total 147916 Tamilnadu 4114Punjab Andhra Pradesh 10410Reuter Market Light 43334Handygo 750 Rajasthan 22976 Total 44084 Uttar Pradesh 20738HaryanaReuter Market Light 20556 Himachal Pradesh 365Handygo 700 Uttarkhand 113 Total 21256West Bengal Total 73971Reuter Market Light 104Handygo 700 Total 804GujaratReuter Market Light 16144Handygo 400 Total 16544
  53. 53. Status of dissemination through IFFCO Kisan Sanchar Limited (IKSL) in 15 statesCircle Current Active Base  At present district levelUttar Pradesh East 277119 Agromet Advisorare disseminated to 6 LakhsUttar Pradesh Wesh 76086 farmers in the country to theBihar 101699 users’ community throughTamilnadu 27439 SMS and IVR technology.Haryana 39910  Other private organisationRajasthan 68422 in pipeline for disseminationHimachal Pradesh 6219 of advisories through SMS are NABARD, Nokia, CSC,Gujarat 6145 Tata Consultancy ServicesPunjab 8276 etc.Bangalore 77162Kerala 5981Madhya Pradesh 45902Andhra Pradesh 49327West Bengal 57961Orissa 44377Maharashtra 17994
  54. 54. Brochure for Awareness Brochure in different languages are prepared for circulation among the users Hindi English Assam Gujarati Manipuri eesNepali Oriya Punjabi Tamil Marathi
  55. 55. Vision ahead Create a seamless system of generating forecasts at time scales of• Nowcasting• Very short range and Short range forecasting• Medium range forecasting• Extended range forecasting• Seasonal scale forecasting Improvement in PWS with an ultimate aim of launching a dedicated weather channel for real time dissemination of weather information Complete integration with sub offices, Disaster managers, stake holders, Media An interactive system for assessment of needs and customization A system for incorporating modern research and technology
  56. 56. Conclusions IMD has been constantly improving its weather and climate services to meet the requirements of wide spectrum of Users. With on going modernisation of observational and forecasting system, IMD is well poised to provide weather and climate information at various temporal and spatial scales for better management of risks of climate variability and climate change. IMD is having a national meteorological observing system which can cater to the needs of insurance sector.

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