There are encouraging trends as witnessed by good production reports in India such as a 92 million tons of wheat harvested in 2012 favored by an exceptional weather. Global wheat yield growth however have been plateauing. Global yield growth of cereals are struggling to keep up with the annual population growth rate: crop yield are growing more slowly. The relative exception is maize which benefits from massive investment in research from the private sector. Growth in population and demand for food have both slowed down but crop yields have slowed more.
Poverty is the root cause of malnutrition. Price increases are good for farmers. Food price increases push net consumers back into poverty because the share of household expenses in food becomes major and does not allow families to spend in education and health. This can cause political instability. Small farmers contribute both to crop diversification (high value vegetable production and up to 52 % of cereal production) but policies need to be in place to access input, credit and markets.
There are also more extreme climatic events such as those we have seen in 2010. Given the relatively inelastic demand for food throughout much of the world, such declines in production result in significant price increases for agricultural commodities.
And willingness to take risk…
2050 >> feeding a warming world: Researchers have recently started to untangle the complex ways rising temperatures will affect global agriculture. They expect climate change to lead to longer growing seasons in some countries; in others the heat will increase the frequency of extreme weather events or the prevalence of pests. In the U.S., productivity is expected to rise in the Plains states but fall further in the already struggling Southwest. Russia and China will gain; India and Mexico will lose. In general, developing nations will take the biggest hits. By 2050 counteracting the ill effects of climate change on nutrition will cost more than $7 billion a year.
Time for an efficiency drive: there will be no big gain from taking new land, using more fertiliser, more irrigation. Cutting waste could make a difference but there are limits: The main gains will come in three ways: 1) narrowing the gaps between the worst and best producers; 2) using new technologies and 3) spreading a livestock revolution.
Objective 1 Planning Meeting The Big Picture Etienne DuveillerCIMMYT, Director of Research for South Asia CSISA Project Leader Kathmandu, Nepal January 27, 2013
Cereal Systems Multidisciplinary Multi-partners Multi-centers TechnologiesParticipatory Research Impact at Scale
Project Goal… To increase food, nutrition, and income security in South Asia through sustainable intensification of cereal-based systems
Linking with livestockwith inno va tive a g ro no m y : whe a t + be rs e e m Treatments Green Wheat Yield Net returns Fodder (kg/ha) (USD/ha) (kg/ha) 15025 4528 729Wheat + Berseem, with cut 0 4917 507Sole Wheat (no cut) Mixed cropping and dual purpose wheat (fodder + grain) can significantly improve economic returns and provide high-quality fodder during leanCourtesy Dr. Kamboj, Haryana periods.
CSISA’s geographyI va tio n ‘hubs ’ a c ro s s So uth A ianno s Focus on the IGP: soils and water resources to feed South Asia
Favorably evolving policies, markets,social indicators ● Educational levels rising rapidly ● Technological innovation / application accelerating ● Cheaper / faster communication dissolving physical and social barriers ● Better information more widely available ● Globalization opening new markets ● BUT STILL WIDESPREAD POVERTY
Converging Challenges Climate Change heat, drought, extreme events Water Nutrients-Soilsgroundwater fertilizer costsurface water deleted soils Energy Insects-Diseases diesel cost Yellow/ Stem rusts biofuels Aphids and Stem borers Demand population growth changing diets
Global demand will grow dramatically as population and incomes rise “In the next 50 years we will need to produce as much food as has been consumed over our entire human history.” Megan Clark, CEO of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Australia
Borlaug’s 1969 prophecy “The seriousness or magnitude of the world food problem should not be underestimated. Recent success in expanding wheat, rice and maize production in Asian countries offers the possibility of buying 20-30 years of time” N.E. Borlaug, 1969 – A Green Revolution Yields a Golden Harvest
Maize and Wheat inSouth Asia and India (Production, FAOSTAT, 2010) Global yield growth is slowerThe Economist 26th Feb. 2011
Extreme climatic events in 2010... New record high in Food Price Index in December 2010 (FAO/GIEWS)● Floods in Pakistan • Fires and drought in Russia in summer in July • Floods in Queensland, in December
Climate change Water, nutrient & energy scarcity Projected demand by 2050 (FAO) Diseases World-wide average yield Linear The more we delay extrapolations of current investments, the trends (tons ha-1) Potential effect steeper the of climate- change-induced challenge heat stress on today’s cultivars (intermediate Agronomy Breeding CO2 emission scenario)MANY ROADBLOCKS…. BUT PLENTY OF INGENUITY Year
Groundwater withdrawals (% of recharge) • During the last decade Northern India’s ground- water levels have fallen as much as 30 cm per year. • More than 109 cubic km of groundwater disappeared from the regions aquifers between 2002 & 2008. Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) , T. Shindler and M. Rodell (UMBC), NASA/GoddardSource: M Rodell et al. Nature 460, 999-1002 (2009)doi:10.1038/nature08238
The Effects of Global Warming on Agriculture Percent change in production for the world’s eight largest growers (by the 2080’s)Source: Scientific American,August 2010
Closing the yield gap will not be enough South Asia in 2012 Wheat self-sufficient
Closing the yield gap will not be enough South Asia in 2050 20- 30% reduction in wheat production due to climate change Demand increase: 40%• 3 IPCC Climate Models•17-38% Reduction in High Potential Zone
Improving Livelihoods while Safeguarding the Environment Example: CSISAApproaches and Outputs● Conservation agriculture systems incorporating newest technologies and know-how● Adapt and adopt high tech solutions for precision agriculture to smallholders● Cellular phones complement extension services
Axioms for success with innovation hubs•There is no universal template foragricultural development•Blending scientific rigor with participatory,demand-lead approaches to technologydevelopment is a must.•Technologies alone are typically insufficient (markets, capital, risk, communications…)
NOVATION + DURABLE PRODUCTS + SUPPORT TO CHANGE AGEN OPERATIONAL MODEL FOR GOING TO SCALE IN CSISA PHASE II
Cross-cutting Activities● Professional development and capacity building● Monitoring and Evaluation● Data Collection and Analysis● Documenting Research and Impact
DDG CIMMYT (Research and Partnerships)Regional Advisory Forum Executive CommitteeFor Cereal Systems Research Project Leader: Etienne Duveiller (CIMMYT, IRRI, IFPRI, ILRI, WF regional reps + Obj leaders) Objective Leaders (1 & 2: Andrew McDonald, 3: JK Ladha, 4: Hans Braun, 5: David Spielman) + IARC Science Team PAK (TBD with new NP Country Coordinator IN Country Coordinator BD Country Coordinator project) (Medha Devare) (Andrew McDonald) (Tim Russell ) Country Management Team Country Management Team IRRI: Takashi Yamano CIMMYT: TP Tiwari / F. Rossi Nepal Hubs ILRI: Nils Teufel WF: C Meisner / M. Hossain IFPRI: Patrick Ward IFPRI: TBD India Hubs Bangladesh Hubs Advisory and Investment Advisory and Investment Committees Committees