Dr. RK MalikDr. Andrew McDonaldInternational Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT)Bihar Partners MeetingPatnaJuly 6, 2012
Cereal Systems Initiative for South AsiaProject Goal: To increase food and income security at scale in SouthAsia through sustainable intensification of cereal-based systems.Metrics of success: crop productivity increases, income generation; improved nutritional outcomes are second-order objectives.Four countries: India, Bangladesh, Nepal, PakistanTwo donors: USAID, BMFGDuration: Phase I: 2009-12; Phase II (pending): 2012-15 The Challenge: catalyzing durable change with millions of small and medium-scale farmers
Poverty, prices, food insecurity in South AsiaPersistent rural & urban poverty and vulnerability People in living on $0.75-$1/day Latin Other America 6.3 & Caribbean Sub- 18.9 Saharan East Asia Africa & Pacific 87.0 109.3 South Asia 263.6 Dots = 50,000 people living on less than $1 day Persistent volatility & uncertainty • Volatile food and energy prices • Natural disasters of varying magnitudes World food and energy prices
How do technologies move?And are they the ‘right’ ones? sResearcher developed technologies Farmer adoption The status quo isn’t good enough….
CSISA: A ‘big tent’ initiativeIntegrating disciplines and organizations• Development and dissemination of sustainable, productive, and economical agricultural technologies• Future-oriented process-based research (e.g. net GHGs, NUE, WUE, models simulations)• Development of high-yielding and stress-tolerant cereal varieties (wheat, rice, and maize)• Strategic partnerships (public + private sectors) to increase the scale and longevity of interventions• Strengthen market linkages and business development (technologies alone are not sufficient)• Capacity building through training and scholarship• Policy analysis and evidence-based advocacy
What’s new in Phase II?• Shift in geographic focus to Eastern India and Bangladesh• More $ resources to support key activities in Bihar, including flexible funds to be managed jointly with NARES through state-level ‘Advisory and Investment Committees’. These funds will support innovation and new thinking, and close gaps where other investments are lacking.• Explicit focus on forming and supporting strategic partnerships
Drivers of change in S. Asia Agriculture• Cereal demand projected to: double by 2025, quadruple by 2050?• Land, water, energy, labor scarcity• Increasing production costs• Resource loss and degradation (land, water, soil)• Risks and uncertainty o High temperatures, drought, inundation o Less predictable climate systems
Production-ecologies are distinctin cases over small distances Drought , overuse of groundwater, acid soils Seasonal inundation, flash flooding Temperature / drought stress, arsenic Limited-source surface irrigation Floods, cyclones, and tidal surges, salinity across the coastal belt
Evolved operational model inCSISA Phase II guided by: Technology development as beginning, not an ends Support to change agents to go to scale
Addressing non-technological barriersthat impede innovationNeeds-based irrigation with AWD canreduced irrigation water use for rice. BUT… Business model for pump rental must favor conservation. (in BD they don’t)
Remembering the simple thingsGood agronomy pays large dividends More precise approaches needn’t be sophisticated to be successful Uniform placement of fertilizers: 10 -15% yield gain
How do farmers make decisions?Fundamental research gaps on conception of risk, behavioral science, etc.Literacy / numeracyWhat information is valued, actionable, and profitable?When must it be provided? Matching the tactic and tool to the audience…….
CSISA axioms for success• Farmers manage systems, not single commodities• There is no universal template for agricultural development (Bangladesh is a long way from Punjab)• Blending scientific rigor with participatory, demand-lead approaches is a must (neither approach is transformative in isolation))
Release of elite seeds ?Wide-spread cultivation of elite seeds
Theory of changeAfter establishing goals, how do we achieve them?Steps to Create a Theory of Change (adapted from www.theoryofchange.org)1. Identify a long-term goal.2. Conduct ‘backwards mapping’ to identify the preconditions necessary to achieve that goal.3. Identify the interventions required to create these preconditions.4. Develop indicators for each precondition that will be used to assess the performance of the interventions.5. Write a narrative that integrates the various moving parts in your theory.**If a plausible theory of change for specific goals cannot be identified andexecuted within the timeframe of the project, those goals should be dropped orgiven low priority.
Defining impact pathways: a key elementfor project planning
Transforming agriculture in Bihar is an enormouschallenge, will potentially huge rewardsCSISA will not succeed acting alone (full stop)But partnerships have to be based on:• Clear value proposition to motivate the participation of all partners• Joint ownership and commitment to success• Timelines for action• Coordination of activities along common impact pathways…..
Thank YouMANY ROADBLOCKS…. BUT PLENTY OF INGENUITY.