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[Day 2] Center Presentation: WFP

[Day 2] Center Presentation: WFP



Presented by George Mu’ammar (WFP) at the CGIAR-CSI Annual Meeting 2009: Mapping Our Future. March 31 - April 4, 2009, ILRI Campus, Nairobi, Kenya

Presented by George Mu’ammar (WFP) at the CGIAR-CSI Annual Meeting 2009: Mapping Our Future. March 31 - April 4, 2009, ILRI Campus, Nairobi, Kenya



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    [Day 2] Center Presentation: WFP [Day 2] Center Presentation: WFP Presentation Transcript

    • The role of GIS in delivering Effective Humanitarian Assistance George Mu’ammar VAM - Food Security Analysis Service United Nations World Food Programme, Rome, ITALY george.muammar@wfp.org
    • The World Food Programme WFP is largest food aid agency of the UN working in more than 80 countries worldwide The main priority of WFP is to: Provide timely and appropriate humanitarian assistance to save lives and protect livelihoods of the poor and vulnerable households against shocks and food emergencies
    • WFP’s Mission • “WFP is the food aid arm of the United Nations system. Food aid is one of the many instruments that can help to promote food security, which is defined as the access of all people at all times to the food needed for an active and healthy life.” • “WFP will concentrate its efforts and resources on the neediest people.” • “WFP will focus on those aspects […] where food- based interventions are most useful.
    • WFP Programming challenge • Locating the hungry and neediest – Who are the most hungry and at risk populations? (population groups) – Where do they live? (geographical location) – How many they are? (beneficiary estimates) – Why they are hungry / what are risk factors? – When will intervention be necessary (Early Warning) – For how long ? (response duration) – How much assistance (resource mobilization) – What are appropriate responses? (intervention modality, logistics, procurement, programming) – Can this re-occur ? (Monitoring and Emergency Prepardness) • Ensuring their effective and timely integration into WFP's programming.
    • Training and Capacity Development • Training on assessments • Deployment of PDAs for data collection • Mapping, G.I.S. and Spatial Analysis
    • Assessment Activities Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Analysis CFSVA ENA / EFSA FSMS Emergency Food Security Needs Assessment / Monitoring Systems E. Food Security (incl. Market price Assessment monitoring)
    • GeoNetwork (VAM-SIE)
    • Ethiopia (Population) Uganda (LGP) Laos (Access to safe water) Niger (Agri Constraints)
    • Food Security Information and Outcome Measurement Strategy time Comprehensive F. S. & V. FSMMS – Assessment F.S. & Markets Adjustment Emergency F.S. Monitoring Assessment / Feed- System back CFSVA (2) Adjust- ment Feed- back Contingency Plan EMOP PRRO CP Outcome Phase- out Measurement Early hand-over Shock event Warning Emergency F.S. EMOP Assessment
    • Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Assessment • Food security – “…all people…, all times, have Households Current Food Security access to sufficient ….food.. to 3,600,000 poor 3,200,000 meet their needs….” (WFS - borderline 2,800,000 FAO 1996) adequate 2,400,000 – Proxy indicator: Food 2,000,000 Consumption 1,600,000 • Based on 7 day recall of diet 1,200,000 diversity of household 800,000 • Number of foods eaten in 7 400,000 days 0 North Sudan Darfur Southern + 3 Areas Sudan
    • Livelihood Analysis agriculture production livestock rearing Estimated annual income ($/household) • Households have 4000 crop sale livestock sale market gardening cash crop sale different & brewing fishing 3500 unskilled labour skilled labour handicrafts… natural resources multiple, petty trade trading 3000 income salaries-wages livelihoods porter begging gov allowance other 2500 strategies to 2000 secure income and food 1500 1000 500 0 rs an s er s s s ck er er e er de ad tis nc to or rm rn t ra ar , tr es tta lab ea fa s- or t ty liv mi ge y d er lab ar re pe all ille wa rm din sm s- sk d fa ille or er un s- sk rm er fa rm fa
    • Coping Mechanisms • Households have 100% ≥3 rooms Proportion of households 90% Grass roof reserves, wealth, No toilet 80% coping mechanisms, Cooking wood 70% networks… Sleeping mats 60% Bed 50% – Proxy: the asset Table 40% Bicycle wealth index 30% Motorcycle Hand tractor 20% Cattle 10% Poultry 0% Wealthy Poor 0 1 2 3Wealth deciles8 9 10 11 12 4567 12% 1 2 3 4 5 Proportion of households 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 95-100 0-4.9 5-9.9 10-14.9 15-19.9 20-24.9 25-29.9 30-34.9 35-39.9 40-44.9 45-49.9 50-54.9 55-59.9 60-64.9 65-69.9 70-74.9 75-79.9 80-84.9 85-89.9 90-94.9 Wealth Index
    • Assessment Observations
    • Yesterday: NDVI-based Drought Analysis Drought risk – Flood risk – anomalies is dekad localised Flood Frequency Inland Water 29 in historical NDVI Main Rivers High : 17 % anomalies in National Boundary Drought risk – Administrative Units Level 1 Low : 0 % historical NDVI Administrative Units Level 2 Neighbouring Countries anomalies is dekad Sea 15 in historical NDVI Probability of Drought Inland Water High : 5 % 0 30 60 Main Rivers 120 180 240 Kilometers 0 30 60 120 180 240 National Boundary Kilometers Low : 0 % Administrative Units Level 1 Administrative Units Level 2 0 30 60 120 180 240 Neighbouring Countries Kilometers Sea
    • WRSI for Main Staples • Water Requirement Satisfaction Index for sorghum in 2005.
    • % % % % % Probability of % “severe” (*) drought (*) Severe drought is defined as a season where the WRSI for sorghum remains below 50% Based on 11 years observations
    • Number of households and Vulnerability Households 3,600,000 complex food 3,200,000 insecure cyclic - chronic • Combining exposure of 2,800,000 food insecure livelihood groups to 2,400,000 vulnerable to drought shock, current 2,000,000 any drought food consumption and vulnerable to 1,600,000 the wealth index severe drought 1,200,000 households are not vulnerable 800,000 categorized according 400,000 to vulnerability to 0 drought. North Darfur Southern Sudan + 3 Sudan Areas
    • Risk Analysis – Vulnerability to “severe” (*) drought (*) Proportion of households expected to become food insecure during a season when the WRSI of sorghum is less than 50%
    • Drought risk to Food Sec. Conclusion: • Vulnerable households living in areas where drought occurs at least every 10 years are considered at risk
    • Number of people affected by drought in 2008 (this morning)
    • Future: Modelling Assessment Data Predicted values for Food Security Indicators at unobserved locations
    • Emergency Prepardness and Response Unit Contact: Amy Horton – Deputy Chief amy.horton@wfp.org
    • Development Risk Solutions Unit Contact: Bronwyn Cousins - Business Analyst bronwyn.cousins@wfp.org
    • Development Risk Solutions Platform VAM Maps & Operational Cost Total Response Weather Population by Cost by Region Information Profiles = Country # in Need
    • Climate Change - Estimating Cost Impact Response Cost Total Response Weather Estimated Estimate by Cost by Region Information # in Need Country • The impact of climate change can be estimated in two ways: – Direct physical impact on weather events and crops of predicted changes in temperature, rainfall • Established discipline of agro-meteorology and hydro agro- meteorology • Input rainfall and PET fields into DRSP can be varied – Ricardian Approach • Assumes responses to climate in the observed past can be used to estimate changes in future, without needing to model these changes explicitly • All approaches considered, but direct approach has some advantages – Potentially easier to engage country counterparts and transfer modeling technologies
    • Logistics Contact: Eric Branckaert - Sr. Information Management Officer eric.branckaert@wfp.org
    • Database Structure
    • www.logcluster.org