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von Uexkull 1e

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  • 1. Reaping the Benefits from Trade andFDI 2.0Erik von UexkullCountry Economist, AFTP3Conference on ‘Trade and Regulation of Services in Africa’Addis Ababa, 5/6/2013
  • 2. Purpose• Paper commissioned by FPD Investment Climate unitfor trade logistics, investment policy and businesstaxation (CICTI)Review trade, FDI, growth (TFG) linkagesHighlight transformational trends in the global economyand their impact on TFG relationshipImplications for trade logistics / investment policy / tax indeveloping countries?Implications for trade and regulation of services in Africa
  • 3. Why trade and FDI 2.0?More interactiveExtends into new parts of lifeNew players
  • 4. Why trade and FDI 2.0?Three transformational trends in global tradeand FDI:More interactive: Trade in TasksNew parts of life: The Internationalization of ServicesMore players: The Rise of the South
  • 5. Trade in Tasks
  • 6. Trade in Tasks
  • 7. Trade in Tasks• Insiders and Outsiders: Firms engaging in tradein tasks (TNT = both importing and exporting)
  • 8. The Internationalization of Services• Services account for over two thirds of GDP, butonly 20% of world trade, but that is changingServicesExports/GDP
  • 9. The Internationalization of Services“Services can be an engine of export growth for somecountries (…) but more important is that they are a keydeterminant of the competitiveness of all firms in openeconomies.”Francois and Hoekman (2009)
  • 10. The Internationalization of Services• Services trade can make key inputs cheaper andthus boost competitiveness of domestic firms
  • 11. The Rise of the South
  • 12. The Rise of the South• The ‘great doubling’• A commodity boom• South-North investment• Looking ahead– South-South offshoring?– Another great doubling?
  • 13. The Great DoublingShareinLMICManufacturingExports• Competition is getting tougher
  • 14. A Commodity Boom• While demand for commodities is rising
  • 15. What does all this mean for trade, FDI andgrowth?• New gains from trade, but also newchallenges• A wider view on opennessBehind the border issuesServices RegulationStronger trade – FDI complementarityA two way street• Trade costs matter more• Intra firm trade and global value chains• New markets and new role models
  • 16. Implications for trade and regulationof services in Africa• Trade in Services needs to be seen in the contextof other fundamental trends in the globaleconomy• Services play a key role for reaping the benefitsfrom trade and FDI 2.0• New opportunities in services exports, butimports might be even more important Productivity / competitiveness ‘reverse offshoring’ ‘integration services’ Learning / innovation
  • 17. Implications for trade and regulationof services in Africa• But openness to services trade is complex… Regulation Competition Link with FDI Role of the public sector• … and so is analytical work on servicestrade Data Data Data
  • 18. Thank you!jvonuexkull@worldbank.org