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Community based foresight and scenario building workshop for agrarian
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Community based foresight and scenario building workshop for agrarian

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  • When I think about the future of my country, my province, my community – many images come to my mind … this images represent hope, visions, the ideal, the love, etc. the legacy that transform everyone especially at the heartfelt level of our existence
  • But given the impact of a rapidly changing world like climate change, the global recession, typhoons, corruption, etc. fears, trauma, hopelessness compete, and sometimes takes over. my view of reality suddenly changes into something dim, dark and hopeless
  • But then yet again, as always we persevere to change, to transform our life, reality…make our lives better…we believe in hope, we believe in love. In the end, we realize that our life affects others through the sacrifices that we make for our brothers and sisters, for our communities, for our country, for the world. That there could be no other way to feel happy but to make others happy.
  • family
  • Random grouping … 6 to 7 per group …
  • Social – society, cultural, religion, values, behavior and the like Technological – technology, invention, the web, urbanizationEconomic – business, banks, industry Environment – weather, climate, Political – policy, institution, processes, procedures, priorities
  • Scenarios are one of the most popular and persuasive methods used in Futures Studies. Government planners, corporate strategists and military analysts use them in order to aid decision-making. Introduce by RAND Corporation in the 1950s. A scenario is not a specific forecast of the future, but a plausible description of what might happen. Scenarios are like stories built around carefully constructed plots based on trends and events. They assist in selection of strategies, identification of possible futures, making people aware of uncertainties and opening up their imagination and initiating learning processes. The term scenario comes from the dramatic arts. A scenario in the theater refers to an outline of the plot and in movies it is a summary or set of directions for the sequence of action. A scenario is a story with plausible cause and effects links that connects a future condition with present, while illustrating key decisions, events and consequences throughout the narrative. The purpose of scenarios is to systematically explore , create and test consistent alternative future environments that encompass the broadest set of operating conditions that the user might plausibly face.


  • 1. Community-based Foresight andScenario Building Workshop forAgrarian ReformCommunities (ARC)Shermon O. Cruz
  • 2. grandparent parent self children grandchildrenthe extended present200 years1900 AD2000 2100
  • 3. chaoscomplexitycontradiction“well, I don’t know”
  • 4. Re-perceive the present. We need to see theworld with fresh eyes. We have to look atthings, “the real” from a different perspective.
  • 5. futures landscape
  • 6. junglechessmountain topstar
  • 7. Jungle – survival of thefittest• It’s a jungle outthere!• Tiger always in abattle?• Life and organizationis dense, tangled andimpenetrablevegetation• Emotions evokethreat,powerlessness,disorientations,immobilisation• Future uncultivated
  • 8. Chess Set - Strategy• Smart• Life is a liketournament, you’ve gotto have battles everyday• Control of the center• Power struggle• Winner takes all• Chess pawns of theKing/Queen (higherpower)?• Fire power can dowonders• Life is a strategy/ a tactic• Future is on a Stalemate• Future is Math
  • 9. Mountain Tops – AlternativeFutures• Ive been to the mountain top• The promised land• High places for a moment ofreflection• A vista for the way forward• View from above• The journey is long, travellight• Enjoy the view• Life is liberating• Contouring uncertainties• Clarify alternatives• The big picture• I have seen and experiencedwhat’s possible• The future has a lot ofpossibilities
  • 10. Star – Vision• The vision is luminousand radiant, glowingwith possibilities• The vision is detailedand actuallyreachable• The stars are thebright points of life• Guiding light• Divine inspiration• Inspiration, aspiration• Creative brilliance• I am a visionary / theorganization is avisionary• The future is neithertoo far nor too near
  • 11. Using the futures landscape, what is yourmetaphor for the future (agrarian reformcommunities / agrarian reform development)?Why?
  • 12. The Future• Not to predict but to forecast possibilities• To know the future and create our preferredfuture• The future is too complex for oneperson/organization/nation/civilization tocontrol• The future is not one but many futures• Humans have free will, humans can influence/ create the future (Inayatullah, 2013)
  • 13. The future enters into us, in order totransform itself in us, long before it happensRainer Maria, Letter to a Young Poet
  • 14. futures triangle
  • 15. What constitutes reality in agrarian reformcommunities? agrarian reform development?(what is the present? what is real? what is felt? What ispossible? What is not? What is preferred?)
  • 16. future triangle• Provide context to our discussion andexploration on the future of agrarian reformcommunities and/or agrarian reformdevelopment futures• Map three qualitative dimensions of thefuture so that plausible (likely future) can bebetter understood• For us to have a 3D (triangular) perspective ofARC futures
  • 17. PULL OF THE FUTUREPUSH OF THEPRESENTWEIGHT OFHISTORYWhat are the images thatleads us forward? What ispulling us towards thefuture? Any competingdimensions of the future?What are the barriers tothe envisioned changes?What are the things thatdrag us back, that slowsus down?What are the pushes of thepresent that push us to thefuture? What are thedrivers or trends shaping thefuture
  • 18. What will the future be like for Agrarian ReformCommunities say in the year 2025?
  • 19. What are the hopes?what are the fears?what are the disowned?what is our preferred future?
  • 20. What are the drivers / influencersshaping the future of agrarian reformcommunities? (with 2025 in mind)
  • 21. agrarian reform communitiesSocialTechnologicalEnvironmentalEconomicPolitical
  • 22. List at least two (2) major issues / events thatmight drive / influence (based on yourexperience, socio-organizational context, view,feeling, projection, prospection) the future ofagrarian reform communities (with 2025 inmind)
  • 23. scenarios
  • 24. scenarios“hardware” of the futureRAND corporation 1950s (military and strategic studies)Moon MissionMars MissionShell Corporation (the future of energy)SingaporeTaiwanKorea China Malaysia
  • 25. Agrarian Reform Communities 2025
  • 26. What are the likely scenarios for agrarian reformcommunities in 2025?What are the hopes, fears in 2025?Are there hidden assumptions about the future say in2025?What is our preferred future? The future that we desiremost for agrarian reform communities?
  • 27. alternative futureenvironment 1alternative futureenvironment 2alternative futureenvironment 3alternative futureenvironment 4
  • 28. Best Case ScenarioWorst Case ScenarioOutliersBusiness as usual
  • 29. Business as usual Scenario• Having things go along as usual• A situation that has returned to its usual stateagain after an unpleasant or surprising event• “Even right after the flood, it was business asusual in all the stores. Please, everyone, businessas usual. Lets get back to work.”• Spotlight on status quo / best as usual events• The consequence / impact of continuing currenttrends in, example, population, technology,governance, economics, urbanization, etc.(agrarian reform issues, events).
  • 30. Worst Case Scenario• Worst possible environment or outcome outof the several possibilities in planning orsimulation.• Spotlight on dangers / worst case scenarioevents• a situation in which the most unfavourableconditions prevail• is a situation where everything that can gowrong has gone wrong.
  • 31. Outlier Scenario• an event that is numerically distant from other events, thusappearing to be markedly different from other events in asample.• observation that is numerically distant from the rest of thedata.• outliers do indeed regularly occur (anomalous cases / wenow live in the abnormal times – frequency may increase)• Outlier can occur by chance, they are the unforeseeableevents, unsupervised scenarios• Spotlight on emerging, weak signals, out of the radarevents / outlier scenario events• Outlier detection can identify system faults and fraudbefore they escalate with potentially catastrophicconsequences (positive or negative).• Something unplanned and out control is bound to happen
  • 32. Best Case Scenario• the optimum outcome being considered• the most favorable result possible• A better result than expected• a projection of future events that assumesonly the best possible circumstances• spotlights the best possible result• Best possible real world that you can ever get
  • 33. Best Case ScenarioWorst Case ScenarioOutliersBusiness as usual
  • 34. “If there is truer than truth.It’s story.”Jewish saying
  • 35. Workshop• Each group has to create a story about the future ofagrarian reform communities using the two majordriver/influencer variables and archetype scenario (best,worst, outlier, business as usual) in mind.• The story should start in the year 2012 (sets the stage)progressing into the year 2015, 2020 and 2025. What arethe headlines in those years? What are the events, issuesthat has happened that led to the news headlines say in2015, 2020 and 2025? What is the resolution in 2025?What is you narrative? What is the title of the (your) story?• Be creative and use your imagination as much as possible.The catch, however, is that it should be plausible (heartfelt)and could happen in the future.• This does not mean, however, that we have to limit ourcapacity for creativity and imagination. Important in thisprocess is not the forecast but the insights that we get inthe scenario process.
  • 36. when we think about the future, about themany possibilities of the future, the presentbecomes more remarkable, significant …
  • 37. All successful people men and women are bigdreamers. They imagine what their future couldbe, ideal in every respect, and then they workevery day toward their distant vision, that goalor purpose.Brian Tracy
  • 38. The best thing about the future is that it comesone day at a time.Abraham Lincoln
  • 39. thank you