Regional Growth & Development Patterns: 2020 Base Case Scenario Update

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Regional Growth & Development Patterns: 2020 Base Case Scenario Update

  1. 1. Regional Growth & Development Patterns 2020 Base Case Scenario Update May 27, 2009 Tennessee Performing Arts Center War Memorial Auditorium Nashville, TN Nashville Area Metropolitan Planning Organization Mayor Ernest Burgess, Chair Mayor Karl F. Dean, Vice-Chair Michael Skipper, Executive Director
  2. 2. SO HERE WE ARE AGAIN
  3. 3. REGIONAL GEOGRAPHY Robertson Sumner Wilson Rutherford Williamson Maury Dickson Cheatham Montgomery Davidson
  4. 4. REGIONAL POPULATION GROWTH 10-County CRT Region Other regions (MSA) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Woods & Poole Economics 1965 750,000 2000 1,450,000 2008 1,700,000 2035 2,600,000 Denver Region (2.5 million) Austin Region, Charlotte Region (1.7 million) Portland (OR) Region (2.2 million) Seattle Region (3.3 million)
  5. 5. EXISTING DEVELOPMENT Properties affected by current development
  6. 6. ENVIRONMENTAL CONSTRAINTS Environmental constraints/ Land conservation Properties affected by current development
  7. 7. AVAILABLE GREENFIELD Properties with development or development constraints
  8. 8. AVAILABLE GREENFIELD Land available for new development
  9. 9. LAND SUITABILITY <ul><li>Defining Suitability: </li></ul><ul><li>Land Values </li></ul><ul><li>Water/ Sewer </li></ul><ul><li>Schools </li></ul><ul><li>Major Roads/ Intersections </li></ul><ul><li>Retail Opportunities </li></ul><ul><li>Traffic Congestion </li></ul><ul><li>Transit Service/ Stations </li></ul><ul><li>Hospitals </li></ul><ul><li>Parks & Recreation </li></ul><ul><li>Environmental Conflicts </li></ul>More Suitable Less Suitable LAND SUITABILITY
  10. 10. LAND USE POLICY GENERALIZED CATEGORIES Agricultural, Open Residential Non-Residential Single Use Mixed-Use
  11. 11. GROWTH POLICY
  12. 12. TODAY’S DEVELOPMENT PATTERN Properties affected by current development
  13. 13. 1965 DEVELOPMENT PATTERN Properties affected by development in 1965
  14. 14. TODAY’S DEVELOPMENT PATTERN Properties affected by current development
  15. 15. 2035 DEVELOPMENT PATTERN? Properties affected by current & future development
  16. 16. NEW GROWTH AREAS?
  17. 17. RESIDENTIAL DENSITY TODAY Undeveloped or Non-Residential Use Rural/ Countryside Residential Low Density Residential Medium Density Residential High Density Residential
  18. 18. RESIDENTIAL DENSITY 2035 Undeveloped or Non-Residential Use Rural/ Countryside Residential Low Density Residential Medium Density Residential High Density Residential
  19. 19. BASE CASE TREND CONTINUES NEW 2035 BUSINESS-AS-USUAL SCENARIO 2020 CRT BASE CASE SCENARIO
  20. 20. TODAY’S TRAFFIC CONGESTION Nashville Gallatin Lebanon Murfreesboro Franklin Springfield
  21. 21. 2030 TRAFFIC CONGESTION After $1 Billion in Major Improvements Nashville Gallatin Lebanon Murfreesboro Franklin Springfield
  22. 22. 2030 TRAFFIC CONGESTION After $4 Billion in Major Improvements Nashville Gallatin Lebanon Murfreesboro Franklin Springfield
  23. 23. EMERGING REGIONAL ISSUES <ul><li>Unmanageable congestion </li></ul><ul><li>Longer travel times & trip lengths </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing energy consumption / costs </li></ul><ul><li>Declining air & water quality </li></ul><ul><li>Aging population/ Dispersed families </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing health problems / costs </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing traffic safety problems / costs </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing maintenance/ construction costs </li></ul><ul><li>Lost habitat / natural areas </li></ul>
  24. 24. OPPORTUNITIES FOR REGIONALISM <ul><li>Improved integration among transportation , land use , urban design , rural preservation , and economic development policies. </li></ul><ul><li>Increased coordination among local comprehensive plans . </li></ul><ul><li>More and better transportation options represented in the regional plan . </li></ul><ul><li>More reliable approach to funding transit options. </li></ul>
  25. 25. PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION ACROSS U.S. Source: American Public Transportation Association Mapping: Nashville Area MPO existing proposed
  26. 26. PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION ACROSS U.S. Source: American Public Transportation Association Mapping: Nashville Area MPO existing proposed existing proposed
  27. 27. PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION ACROSS U.S. Source: American Public Transportation Association Mapping: Nashville Area MPO
  28. 28. PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION ACROSS U.S. Source: American Public Transportation Association Mapping: Nashville Area MPO existing proposed
  29. 29. PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION ACROSS US 2000 to 2007 Source: American Public Transportation Association Mapping: Nashville Area MPO Fixed-Route Bus Service
  30. 30. TRANSPORTATION BALLOT INITIATIVES Source: Center for Transportation Excellence Mapping: Nashville Area MPO 2000 to 2007 States where voter’s approved funding Cities, Counties, or Regions where voter’s approved funding
  31. 31. WHAT’S OUR VISION? Help Shape our Future with Transportation! www.nashvillempo.org www.cuampo.com
  32. 32. Top Regional Priorities <ul><li>Transit and Integrated Transportation Planning </li></ul><ul><li>Supporting Land Development and Other Infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>Air and Water Quality and Quantity </li></ul><ul><li>Open Space Conservation and Regional Character </li></ul><ul><li>Economic Growth and Development </li></ul>

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