Regional Growth & Development Patterns 2020 Base Case Scenario Update May 27, 2009 Tennessee Performing Arts Center War Memorial Auditorium Nashville, TN Nashville Area Metropolitan Planning Organization Mayor Ernest Burgess, Chair Mayor Karl F. Dean, Vice-Chair Michael Skipper, Executive Director

SO HERE WE ARE AGAIN

REGIONAL GEOGRAPHY Robertson Sumner Wilson Rutherford Williamson Maury Dickson Cheatham Montgomery Davidson

REGIONAL POPULATION GROWTH 10-County CRT Region Other regions (MSA) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Woods & Poole Economics 1965 750,000 2000 1,450,000 2008 1,700,000 2035 2,600,000 Denver Region (2.5 million) Austin Region, Charlotte Region (1.7 million) Portland (OR) Region (2.2 million) Seattle Region (3.3 million)

EXISTING DEVELOPMENT Properties affected by current development

ENVIRONMENTAL CONSTRAINTS Environmental constraints/ Land conservation Properties affected by current development

AVAILABLE GREENFIELD Properties with development or development constraints

AVAILABLE GREENFIELD Land available for new development

LAND SUITABILITY Defining Suitability: Land Values Water/ Sewer Schools Major Roads/ Intersections Retail Opportunities Traffic Congestion Transit Service/ Stations Hospitals Parks & Recreation Environmental Conflicts More Suitable Less Suitable LAND SUITABILITY

Defining Suitability:

Land Values

Water/ Sewer

Schools

Major Roads/ Intersections

Retail Opportunities

Traffic Congestion

Transit Service/ Stations

Hospitals

Parks & Recreation

Environmental Conflicts

LAND USE POLICY GENERALIZED CATEGORIES Agricultural, Open Residential Non-Residential Single Use Mixed-Use

GROWTH POLICY

TODAY’S DEVELOPMENT PATTERN Properties affected by current development

1965 DEVELOPMENT PATTERN Properties affected by development in 1965

TODAY’S DEVELOPMENT PATTERN Properties affected by current development

2035 DEVELOPMENT PATTERN? Properties affected by current & future development

NEW GROWTH AREAS?

RESIDENTIAL DENSITY TODAY Undeveloped or Non-Residential Use Rural/ Countryside Residential Low Density Residential Medium Density Residential High Density Residential

RESIDENTIAL DENSITY 2035 Undeveloped or Non-Residential Use Rural/ Countryside Residential Low Density Residential Medium Density Residential High Density Residential

BASE CASE TREND CONTINUES NEW 2035 BUSINESS-AS-USUAL SCENARIO 2020 CRT BASE CASE SCENARIO

TODAY’S TRAFFIC CONGESTION Nashville Gallatin Lebanon Murfreesboro Franklin Springfield

2030 TRAFFIC CONGESTION After $1 Billion in Major Improvements Nashville Gallatin Lebanon Murfreesboro Franklin Springfield

2030 TRAFFIC CONGESTION After $4 Billion in Major Improvements Nashville Gallatin Lebanon Murfreesboro Franklin Springfield

EMERGING REGIONAL ISSUES Unmanageable congestion Longer travel times & trip lengths Increasing energy consumption / costs Declining air & water quality Aging population/ Dispersed families Increasing health problems / costs Increasing traffic safety problems / costs Increasing maintenance/ construction costs Lost habitat / natural areas

Unmanageable congestion

Longer travel times & trip lengths

Increasing energy consumption / costs

Declining air & water quality

Aging population/ Dispersed families

Increasing health problems / costs

Increasing traffic safety problems / costs

Increasing maintenance/ construction costs

Lost habitat / natural areas

OPPORTUNITIES FOR REGIONALISM Improved integration among transportation , land use , urban design , rural preservation , and economic development policies. Increased coordination among local comprehensive plans . More and better transportation options represented in the regional plan . More reliable approach to funding transit options.

Improved integration among transportation , land use , urban design , rural preservation , and economic development policies.

Increased coordination among local comprehensive plans .

More and better transportation options represented in the regional plan .

More reliable approach to funding transit options.

PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION ACROSS U.S. Source: American Public Transportation Association Mapping: Nashville Area MPO existing proposed

PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION ACROSS U.S. Source: American Public Transportation Association Mapping: Nashville Area MPO existing proposed existing proposed

PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION ACROSS U.S. Source: American Public Transportation Association Mapping: Nashville Area MPO

PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION ACROSS U.S. Source: American Public Transportation Association Mapping: Nashville Area MPO existing proposed

PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION ACROSS US 2000 to 2007 Source: American Public Transportation Association Mapping: Nashville Area MPO Fixed-Route Bus Service

TRANSPORTATION BALLOT INITIATIVES Source: Center for Transportation Excellence Mapping: Nashville Area MPO 2000 to 2007 States where voter’s approved funding Cities, Counties, or Regions where voter’s approved funding

WHAT’S OUR VISION? Help Shape our Future with Transportation! www.nashvillempo.org www.cuampo.com

Top Regional Priorities Transit and Integrated Transportation Planning Supporting Land Development and Other Infrastructure Air and Water Quality and Quantity Open Space Conservation and Regional Character Economic Growth and Development

Transit and Integrated Transportation Planning

Supporting Land Development and Other Infrastructure

Air and Water Quality and Quantity

Open Space Conservation and Regional Character

Economic Growth and Development