Georgian Young Economists: Post-Conflict Business Assessment
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Georgian Young Economists: Post-Conflict Business Assessment

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Results of a phone survey of around 1000 businesses, in post-conflict Georgia

Results of a phone survey of around 1000 businesses, in post-conflict Georgia

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Georgian Young Economists: Post-Conflict Business Assessment Georgian Young Economists: Post-Conflict Business Assessment Presentation Transcript

  • Tbilisi 2008 Association of Young Economists of Georgia
    • Interviews via phone;
    • Sample size 1000 entrepreneurs throughout the Georgia (small, medium and large size);
    • Respondents: Company managers/Owners;
    • Focus on business activity in the two months after the conflict;
    • Survey period: 15-24 October 2008;
    Assessment of Georgian Business Climate following the August Conflict ; AYEG 2008
  • Assessment of Georgian Business Climate following the August Conflict ; AYEG 2008
  • Assessment of Georgian Business Climate following the August Conflict ; AYEG 2008
  • Assessment of Georgian Business Climate following the August Conflict ; AYEG 2008 The size of the companies was defined by self-evaluation, since there is no official definition of company sizes in Georgia.
  • Assessment of Georgian Business Climate following the August Conflict ; AYEG 2008 Generally, how the recent conflict in August impacted on the business climate? The majority of businesses consider the impact as negative and very negative; 24 respondents even suffered direct losses from Russian Troops
    • The 24 companies located in Shida Kartli and Samegrelo-Zemo Svaneti region indicated that they suffered direct losses form armed forces.
    • The total amount: 3, 191 000 GEL (approximately 2.263.000 USD);
    Assessment of Georgian Business Climate following the August Conflict ; AYEG 2008
  • Assessment of Georgian Business Climate following the August Conflict ; AYEG 2008 How much did the recent conflict complicated the sales (in previous two months period)? For 70% of the respondents the sales became complicated
  • Assessment of Georgian Business Climate following the August Conflict ; AYEG 2008 The conflict had relatively higher impact on large sized companies. It should be considered that small companies mostly trade the grocery products or are engaged in the service sector   Doesn't reflected the projected sales The conflict made little negative affect Complicated Very complicated Difficult to asses Small 18,3 12,3 34,5 34,7 0,2 Medium 16,3 13,3 30,9 39,5   0 Large 16,4 9,1 30,9 43,6   0
  • Assessment of Georgian Business Climate following the August Conflict ; AYEG 2008
  • Assessment of Georgian Business Climate following the August Conflict ; AYEG 2008 Sales decrease by company’s size Sales decrease by sectors
  • Assessment of Georgian Business Climate following the August Conflict ; AYEG 2008 How and what factors reflected the sales in previous two months? Sales decrease by - 30-40%
  • Assessment of Georgian Business Climate following the August Conflict ; AYEG 2008
  • Assessment of Georgian Business Climate following the August Conflict ; AYEG 2008 Mostly the distribution companies faced problems
  • Assessment of Georgian Business Climate following the August Conflict ; AYEG 2008
  • Assessment of Georgian Business Climate following the August Conflict ; AYEG 2008 281 Respondents (100%) Investor -21 Bank - 155 Reinvestment 105 financed 2 postponed 11 rejected 8 financed 27 postponed 33 rejected 95 financed 5 postponed 94 Doesn’t plan any more 6 As a result only 12% of the enlargement plans were conducted.
  • Assessment of Georgian Business Climate following the August Conflict ; AYEG 2008     Quantity % 1 Do not plan to get loan any more 14 9,0 2 The bank/microfinance organization rejected my application and I seek the alternative funding 31 20,0 3 The bank/microfinance organization rejected my application and I wait for situation improvements 50 32,3 4 I've postponed for uncertain period 11 7,1 5 The bank/microfinance organization has postponed for uncertain period 22 14,2 6 I got the loan 27 17,4
  •  
  • Assessment of Georgian Business Climate following the August Conflict ; AYEG 2008
  • Assessment of Georgian Business Climate following the August Conflict ; AYEG 2008
    • Almost all private companies reported a strong impact; on average, sales decreased by 25%.
    • Decrease apparently driven by a sharp drop in consumer demand (banks stopped or limited the consumer loans)
    • The tourism sector suffered most; sales stopped as soon as conflict started and the recovery period is expected to more time than for any other sector;
    Assessment of Georgian Business Climate following the August Conflict ; AYEG 2008
    • A quarter of respondents had planned to expand before the conflict; only 12% of those managed to implement their original plan, and some only in part;
    • Respondents expect that the business recovery period will take approximately 6 to 12 months, but that assistance may halve the recovery period;
    • Most of companies believe that the government response is critical for ensuring the business climate recovery.
    Assessment of Georgian Business Climate following the August Conflict ; AYEG 2008
    • Address: 35 Orbeliani St.
    • Tbilisi, 0105
    • Georgia
    •  
    • Tel: (+ 995 32) 922839, 990443, 93 64 75; 92 31 21;
    • Fax: (+ 995 32) 92 24 61
    • E-mail: [email_address] ; [email_address]
    • Web-site: www.economists.ge
    Assessment of Georgian Business Climate following the August Conflict ; AYEG 2008