Caucasus peacebuilding

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  • Lack of confidence and trust, lack of political culture, corruption, and media freedoms
  • In all three countries people perceive the government as “parent” in general. Such perception is less expressed in Georgia. However, the data show that people are looking for initiatives from the Government.
  • High expectations from the governments are paralleled with rejection of the direction of politics in the country. High share of DKs evidences low political activity of civilians.
  • Though democracy as a common value is wanted in contemporary South Caucasus, the level of real democracy in own countries is still perceived as low.
  • General Public in Azerbaijan strongly believes that NK should become a part of the country W/O autonomy.
  • Meantime the majority in Armenia see the solution of the conflict in having the NK as part of Armenia. Would it be possible to solve the issue if positions are absolutely contradicting? How to change the minds? Could Mass media, especially TV to contribute? Who could support to do so?
  • Economic concerns are prevailing in all the countries. However, unsolved territorial conflicts are a serious concern in Azerbaijan and Georgia.Corruption by importance is the fourth in the long list of issues.
  • Territorial disputes entrenched deepening ethnic intolerance.
  • Despite the conflicts (armed) in the Region Economic growth is more demanded than a reliable defense. Moreover, reliable defense as aim of the country upon time is perceived by lower share of respondents. Meantime, the importance of the economic growth increased. One needs to question if economic growth is possible without peace and political stability. “Peace=Reliable defense” is a hypothesis from cold war period but not today. Today we have “Economic growth=>Peace”
  • The data evidence from year to year that Army enjoys high trust of civilians. 84% interviewed in 2008 and 63% interviewed in 2011 in Armenia fully or somewhat trust the Army considering it as a guarantee of security and peace. The respective figures are similar in Azerbaijan (73 & 77%) and Georgia (73 & 76%). Among another highly trusted institutions the Religious institutions should be mentioned. The Businesses, particularly the Banking system has to gain trust.
  • Will be the Civil Society accept the agreements achieved between authorities?
  • TV is the leading Mass media! If independent and free, perhaps it could cultivate more tolerance.
  • Businesses? NGOs?
  • The United Nations and the EU have similar and slightly diminishing levels of confidence in each country.
  • Any political influential block? NATO? Quite supported, especially in Georgia.
  • Though the EU has declined slightly in confidence, it is still viewed as a desirable organization to join. It also enjoys unique confidence as a peace builder in settling NagornyKarabakh.
  • Any country to intermediate? Controversial ! Perhaps EU per se!
  • Caucasus peacebuilding

    1. 1. Caucasus Research Resource Centers-Armenia A Program of the Eurasia Partnership Foundation THE SOUTH CAUCASUS TODAY: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES TO PEACE-BUILDING March 27th, 2012Data-driven findings prepared for a seminar hosted by the Swiss Peace Foundation in cooperation with the Eurasia Partnership Foundation Bern, Switzerland Heghine Manasyan, heghine@crrccenters.org
    2. 2. INSTITUTIONAL CHALLENGES TOPEACEBUILDING
    3. 3. Disconnect between the public and governments: Politics is going in the right or wrong direction? (CB-2011, %) Politics is definitely going in the right direction Politics is going mainly in the right direction Politics does not change at all. Politics is going mainly in the wrong direction. Politics is definitely going in the wrong direction. Dont Know Armenia 3 11 25 15 22 24Azerbaijan 7 27 33 11 2 20 Georgia 9 38 10 14 3 25
    4. 4. Lack of Democracy: Large Gap Between Wanted and Real Levels (average score out of 10 max, WVS, V140-141) Importance of living in a democratic country Democraticness in own country 8.5Armenia 2011 3.9 9.1Georgia 2009 4.4
    5. 5. Polarized beliefs on settlement of conflicts: Ideas for settling the Nagorny Karabakh conflict - AZERBAIJAN (CB 2011, %) Definitely favor Accept under certain circumstances Never accept DK Have Nagorny Karabakh in Azerbaijan without 90 4 4 autonomy Have Nagorny Karabakh with a high degree of 23 27 40 8 autonomy within Azerbaijan Create a special administrative region that will be 5 84 9 jointly governed by Azerbaijan and ArmeniaHave Nagorny Karabakh as an independent country 7 81 8Have Nagorny Karabakh as a formal part of Armenia 94 4
    6. 6. Polarized beliefs on settlement of conflicts: Ideas for settling the Nagorny Karabakh conflict - ARMENIA (CB 2011, %) Definitely favor Accept under certain circumstances Never accept DK RAHave Nagorny Karabakh as a formal part of Armenia 60 18 13 8Have Nagorny Karabakh as an independent country 55 20 15 9 Create a special administrative region that will be 14 77 17 jointly governed by Azerbaijan and Armenia Have Nagorny Karabakh with a high degree of 23 77 17 autonomy within Azerbaijan Have Nagorny Karabakh in Azerbaijan without 42 74 18 autonomy
    7. 7. What do you think is the most important issue facing country at the moment? (CB-2011, %) Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia 42 Unemployment 24 52 18 Poverty 11 1 6 Rising prices / Inflation 4 4 6 Corruption 9 5 Low pensions 6 2 5 Low wages 5 1 3 Unsolved territorial conflicts 33 12 3 Lack of peace in the country 1 1Political instability in the country 1 4 1 Violation of human rights 3 1 1 Unaffordability of healthcare 5 Violation of property rights 12 Relations with Russia 2
    8. 8. Ethnic intolerance: Approval of doing business with…(CB-2011, %) Approve Disapprove Dont know Refuse to answer Azerbaijanis 32 64 3Armenia Georgians 66 30 4 Armenians 99 1Azerbaijan Georgians 60 37 2 Azerbaijanis 72 21 7Georgia Armenians 67 26 7
    9. 9. KEY STAKEHOLDERS TO ADDRESS THE BARRIERSTO PEACE BUILDING IN SOUTH CAUCASUS
    10. 10. Consistent High Trust Towards the Army and Religious Institutions (CB 2008 & 2011, % of total) Fully trust Somewhat trust Neither trust nor distrust Somewhat distrust Fully distrust DK Azerbaij Armeni 2008 64 20 8 3 4 1 a 2011 32 31 12 9 14 2 2008 50 27 11 6 4 3Army Georgia an 2011 47 30 15 4 22 2008 50 23 14 3 3 7 2011 28 48 13 31 7 Azerbaij Armeni 2008 44 21 12 8 8 6Religious institutions a 2011 43 31 11 5 7 3 2008 26 22 22 11 7 13 Georgia an 2011 19 26 21 12 6 17 2008 69 14 6 2 3 6 2011 58 28 7 21 4 Azerbaij Armeni 2008 17 23 22 13 16 8 a 2011 11 33 22 10 14 10 2008 12 27 28 13 11 9Banks Georgia an 2011 13 25 29 15 10 8 2008 25 25 20 7 6 17 2011 11 33 25 8 7 17
    11. 11. Inadequate Trust Towards National Authorities: President, Government, Parliament (CB-2011, %) Fully trust Somewhat trust Neither trust nor distrust Somewhat distrust Fully distrust DK Armenia 10 23 21 15 26 5President Azerbaijan 64 17 11 4 22 Georgia 25 34 23 6 6 6 Armenia 6 19 23 18 28 6Government Azerbaijan 19 28 25 14 8 5 Georgia 9 30 30 9 8 15 Armenia 5 16 25 18 30 6Parliament Azerbaijan 17 30 28 15 7 5 Georgia 8 28 32 10 9 13
    12. 12. Media could play a role! Confidence: Television (WVS, V111, %) A great deal Quite a lot Not very much None at all Armenia 1997 5 40 37 17 Armenia 2011 4 30 45 20Azerbaijan 1997 5 37 32 27 Georgia 1996 8 53 28 11 Georgia 2009 4 29 53 13
    13. 13. International Organizations? To what extent would you support country’s membership in NATO? (CB-2011, %) Fully support Rather support Equally support and dont support Rather not support Dont support at all Dont Know Armenia 16 21 24 9 11 18Azerbaijan 21 20 24 10 7 17 Georgia 36 30 14 2 5 13
    14. 14. International Organizations? The EU has a unique role! To what extent would you support country’s membership in EU? (CB- 2011, %) Fully support Rather support Equally support and dont support Rather not support Dont support at all Dont Know Armenia 30 31 18 4 4 12Azerbaijan 27 22 23 8 5 15 Georgia 37 31 13 2 3 14
    15. 15. Should the following countries or organizations be more involved; less involved; or not involved at all in finding a solution for the Nagorny Karabakh conflict? (% of more involved) (CB-2011, %) Armenia Azerbaijan 72 Russia 53 37 United States 33 50 France 14 8 Turkey 86 43European Union 38

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