Movieline Oscar Index

Search MovielineOSCAR INDEX || BY S.T. VANAIRSDALE || 01 26 2011 5:20 PMOscar Index: Social Network, King’s Speech Resume Steel-CageDeath Match COMMENTS: 5 || ADD YOURSSo you’ve probably heard about yesterday’s Academy Award nominations. Pretty interesting, ifyou’re into that kind of thing. And really, who isn’t? More importantly, who isn’t into Movieline’sOscar Index, which went a respectable 30 for 35 in its inaugural attempt to narrow down this year’snods to a science? Let’s break it all down — and see what it means for the Oscar home stretch:[Click the graphs for larger images] Michelle Williams on Meek’s Cutoff, Goodbyes and Getting Lost At the MoviesThe Nominees:1. [tie] The Social Network1. [tie] The King’s Speech3. True Grit Bridesmaids Kristen Wiig co-writes and leads this raunchy4. The Fighter ensemble comedy from director Paul Feig5. Inception (Univ ersal)6. Black Swan Priest7. The Kids Are All Right Paul Bettany takes on post-apocaly ptic8. Toy Story 3 v ampires; Karl Urban and Cam Gigandet co-star (Screen Gems)9. 127 Hours10. Winter’s Bone Everything Must Go Will Ferrells relapsed alcoholic starts ov er in this Ray mond Carv er adaptation (RoadsideNotes: Before we get too far into this, let’s first give a round of applause to Harvey Weinstein: The Attractions)Oscar Whisperer’s extraordinary awards-hoarding talents were on full display as The King’s Speechshocked Hollywood with a Producers Guild win for Best Picture — then followed that up with a Hesher Nihilistic wild man Joseph Gordon-Lev ittseason-best 12 Academy Award nominations. On the one hand, it wasn’t so hard to see the dozen nods radically changes a y oung boy s life; Nataliecoming down the pipe (it’s not like Social Network was going to get costume and art-direction nods, Portman co-stars (Newmarket)after all). On the other, from that PGA loss to Oscar oversights like Best Supporting Actor, senior SkatelandAcademy voters appeared to be putting TSN in its place after an unprecedented run through previous A group of friends comes to grips with their changing small town in early -80s Texascritics and guild awards announcements. “It’s a revolt, is what it is,” wrote Jeffrey Wells at Hollywood

critics and guild awards announcements. “It’s a revolt, is what it is,” wrote Jeffrey Wells at Hollywood (Freesty le)Elsewhere. “It’s the old getting onto the young and saying ‘no… no! Our most highly honored filmcan’t be about kids talking about computer codes…. no!” Meanwhile, Dave Karger played hislongstanding King’s Speech allegiance cool, noting only, “Whatever ends up happening, it’s clear thatdespite The Social Network’s critic-award sweep, we actually have a close contest for the Oscar.”Screw “close,” though. I’d say in pundit perception terms alone this week — and with Harvey Thor PA RA MOUNT $66.00Mcreatively courting the Academy’s biggest voting bloc while quickly developing new box-office- $66.00Mboosting strategies — this race is dead even. Fast Five UNIV E RS A L $32.52M $139.85MAnd then there’s True Grit, the ultimate wild card in all of this. With 10 nominations of its own — Jumping The Broom TRISTA R $13.70Mincluding an equally shocking supplanting of Christopher Nolan in the Director category — it has $13.70Mplenty of true believers around the Academy. It has two distinct disadvantages, however: The Something Borrowed WB $13.15M $13.15Mpreferential Best Picture balloting system doesn’t quite allow for the kind of vote-splitting we all Rio FOX $8.20Massume resulted in Crash’s plurality-based victory in 2006; and the Coens, who edit their own films $114.90Munder the nom de splice Roderick Jaynes, were snubbed in the Editing category. And, as Paul Water For Elephants FOX $5.60MSheehan points out at Gold Derby, “Ever since the Oscars introduced an award for editing in 1934, $41.61Monly nine movies have won Best Picture without at least being nominated for the editing Academy Madeas Big Happy LGF $3.90M Family $46.81MAward.” Depending on whom you ask (cough, Scott Rudin, cough), this latter detail may seem likemore of a historical fluke than campaign hurdle. Nevertheless it’s a problem — and one Paramount Prom DIS NE Y $2.42M $7.80Mmust address to sustain its own momentum this week. Soul Surfer TRISTA R $2.10M $36.68MAs far as the rest, what can I say? Winter’s Bone is blowing my mind right now with four nominations Hoodwinked Too! TWC $1.88Min big-time categories (Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay), but that’ll pass — $6.71Mthough am I the only one who can foresee Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini pulling some GeoffreyFletcher-over-Jason Reitman type of upset over Aaron Sorkin? It’s not like they have to beat him andKing’s Speech screenwriter David Seidler. Think about it. Oh: And sorry, Ben Affleck. The Town wasgood. It was very good. Alas. I had high hopes for Miral, since director Julian Schnabel’s last feature, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, was one of my favorite movies of the past decade. But Schnabel is out of his element here. His movie comes off as a stiff lesson plan; his gift for subtlety seems temporarily lost. MOVIELINE RATING: 4 || READ MOREThe Nominees:1. David Fincher, The Social Network2. Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech3. Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit4. David O. Russell, The Fighter5. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

Aronofsky’s nomination.) But what isn’t anyone’s guess is that Hooper — who apparently survivedhaving “literally jumped out of my skin” after Saturday night’s upset — is riding his film’s PGA/Oscarnom wave all the way to a direct showdown with Fincher on Feb. 27. 1 2 3 All

Movieline Oscar Index

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Movieline Oscar Index — Document Transcript

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