Stefan Weber
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  • Analog zu den Entwicklungen der Produktion wird für den Zeitraum 2008-2017 weltweit ein jährliches Nachfragewachstum von etwa 2,1% für VMP, 2,0% für Butter, 1,7% für MMP und 1,3% für Käse prognostiziert. Es ist jedoch davon auszugehen, dass Angebot und Nachfrage nicht linear und konstant ansteigen werden, sondern dass es immer wieder auch zu temporären Verschiebungen am Weltmilchmarkt kommen kann. Die EU wächst nur bei Käse, ansonsten deutliche Rückgänge.

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  • 1. COPA * COGECA The Outlook for EU agriculture Brüssel, 29th June 2011 Session II Market outlook for selected sectors, opportunities and constraints to productivity and the Contribution of input suppliers The Dairy sector Dr. Stefan Weber LMS Landwirtschaftsberatung , Rostock-Germany
  • 2.
    • Currently a positive outlook on market for milk and dairy products
    • Enormus price volatalities at world markets
    • Land prices are rising, availability of land develops more restrictive
    • Heterogeneous structure of agricultural dairy farms
    • High production requirements results higher production costs
    • Dissatisfied dairy structure
    • Full decoupling of direct payments in Germany since 2005
    • Soft landing 2013to regional flat rate for farmers in 2013
    • Significant reductions of the provision of direct payments
    Analysis of the milk market Dr. Stefan Weber
  • 3. EU 27: Exports of Milk Products
    • Significantly higher sales of cheese and skimmed milk powder in 2010.
    2010 in 1.000 to, January-December 2009 *einschließlich Butter öl Butter* Käse VMP MMP KDM Molken- pulver Kasein Quelle: ZMB nach Eurostat Seite Dr. Stefan Weber
  • 4. Increase in purchasing power and demand for milk-products in emerging economies Market situation / development Percentage change in GDP (2011) Quelle: World Bank, DMK Seite Dr. Stefan Weber 8,7% 7,7% 4,7% 5,3 % 4,3% 4,0% 1,4% 3,0% 4,0% 2,8%
    • Crowing purchasing power in emerging economies
    • Diffusion of western consumer behaviour
    • Increase of demand and supply for milk products outside Europe
    • Standard export products are competitive on world market
    • Increase in demand by global retailers
  • 5. Development in global Milk-Production towards 2019 Market- situation / -development GUS, Ozeanien, Asien, Rest Nordamerika EU Development of Production of Raw Materials in Mio. kg 2019 +165,3 Mrd kg 2009 -2019 Quelle: OECD, FAO, DMK Seite Dr. Stefan Weber
    • Worldwide growth Ø 2,1 % (Argentine, Brasil, China and India)
    • Slow growth in the EU (Forecatss by OECD-FAO, FAPRI, EU)
    • Shift in Milk Production towards Northern Europe (NL, DK, PL, D-North)
    • Growth in Germany affects typical grasland regions ( on the fringe of the Alps , coast- regions)
    • End of Quota in 2015
  • 6. World Demand – Forecast by OECD/FAO
    • The long term outlook is positive, but we have to reckon with fluctuating cycles.
    Development of demand worldwide 1.000 t Cheese Butter MMP VMP Quelle: OECD-FAO 2010: Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019, DMK Seite Dr. Stefan Weber
  • 7. Distribution of world population on the continents
    • The population growth is taking place at 95 % in developing countries.
    World Population 2004: 6,4 Mrd. World Population 2050: 9,3 Mrd. Asien Asien Afrika Afrika EU EU Quelle: Deutsche Stiftung Weltbevölkerung Seite Dr. Stefan Weber
  • 8. In future, the world's growing population will be supplied with high-quality food
    • By 2050, the world's population is currently projected to reach over 9 billion people.
    World Population 2050: 9,3 Mrd Zunahme in Mio. Quelle: Deutsche Stiftung Weltbevölkerung Seite Dr. Stefan Weber
  • 9. Population development in Germany until 2050
    • Germany's population will shrink further and grow old in 2050. According to recent calculations by the Federal Statistical Office, there will then be about twice as many 60-year-old as newborns.
    85 80 75 70 65 60 Population in Mio. Quelle: Grundlage: Variante 6 - W1: "relativ alte" Bevölkerung; Geburtenhäufigkeit: leicht fallend, Lebenserwartung: hoch, Wanderungssaldo: 100 000 Basis: 31.12.2005; Quelle: Destatis 2006 Seite Dr. Stefan Weber
  • 10. State of Play of the german agricultural sector? Shares of the EU-27 agricultural production 2008-2009 (in%) Quellen: AMI Dr. Stefan Weber
  • 11. Cost of milk production in comparison to the european average , ct/kg ECM Quelle: EDF Dr. Stefan Weber
  • 12. Milk production in kg/ha LF: Dr. Stefan Weber *) Für Rheinland-Pfalz, Baden-Württemberg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Sachsen und Thüringen liegen keine Milchleistungsdaten auf Kreisebene vor. Berechnung: Milchkuh (Kreis) * Ø Milchleistung (Bundesland) / ha LF (Kreis) Quelle: Lassen et al. 2008 vTi. kg je ha LF *) < 500 501 – 1.000 1.001 – 1.500 1.501 – 2.000 2.001 – 3.000 > 3.000
  • 13. Germany as a location for milk– by Region Dr. Stefan Weber Quelle: Situationsbericht BV, BZA DLG Forum Spitzenbetriebe
  • 14.
    • The changing conditions costs agricultural diversity
    • Milk production is well established, competitive enterprises with heterogeneous structures
    • High demands on production require higher costs
    • Existing of (sometimes high) premiums depending in many areas
    • Decrease of Direct Payments, but coupled to conditions and environmental standards
    • Higher competition for land
    • Skills shortages and generational change will be increasingly difficult
    • Optimisation of nutrient cycling
    Outlock for the milk market I.! Dr. Stefan Weber
  • 15.
    • Germany is and remains as a very interesting and financially strong market
    • Dairy structure situated unsatisfactory,
    • => Targeting higher market share in domestic market and growth in exports
    • A Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) with equal standards
    • Greater acceptance of agriculture as a whole and a higher appreciation for food
    Outlock for the milk market II. ! Dr. Stefan Weber
  • 16. Dr. Stefan Weber