Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
Edit Konya
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×

Introducing the official SlideShare app

Stunning, full-screen experience for iPhone and Android

Text the download link to your phone

Standard text messaging rates apply

Edit Konya

971
views

Published on


0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
971
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
2
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
4
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. Short-term outlook for meat markets Edit Konya – DG AGRI, Unit L.2, Economic analysis of EU agriculture Brussels, 29 June 2011
  • 2. Introduction
    • Introduction
      • DG AGRI produces the meat balance sheets regularly, 3 times per year;
      • Structure: Overall EU market balance and balance sheets for beef, pork, poultry and sheep
      • Used database: EUROSTAT - Comext
      • Covered timeframe: from 2009 to 2012, graphs from 2000 to 2010
      • The years 2009 and 2010 are based on historical data, estimates for 2011 were derived from latest herd and GIP (Gross Indigenous Production) forecast figures. Forecast for 2012 – trend analysis, assumptions.
      • Regular discussion between market experts within DG AGRI
      • Presented version: June 2011
      • Graphs – in 1 000 t carcass weight equivalent.
  • 3. Overall meat market balance
  • 4. Overall meat market balance
    • 2010
      • EU meat demand declined marginally in 2010
      • Export volumes increased in 2010 (in particular beef and € weakened against USD -> improved EU export competitiveness )
      • While imports have fallen (lower EU internal demand)
    • 2011 and 2012
      • Estimated slight increase in production in 2011
      • Imports would fall and exports would increase in 2011 but the trend is expected to reverse in 2012
      • Overall meat c onsumption would stay at the same level of 2010 and would increase in 2012
  • 5. EU-27 Beef/veal market balance
  • 6. EU beef and veal market
    • 2010
      • The export was strong, the EU became net exporter (concerning all beef products) – for the first time since 2003
    • 2011 and 2012
      • Meat production is expected to remain at the same level in 2011 and to decrease in 2012
      • Forecasted decline in beef exports both in 2011 and 2012
      • Live imports would continue decreasing but meat imports are foreseen to increase
      • Overall consumption would increase slightly in 2011 and decrease in 2012
  • 7. EU-27 pigmeat market balance
  • 8. EU pork market perspectives
    • 2010
      • Feed prices started increasing in summer 2010 + dioxin scare
      • Production and meat export increased
    • 2011 and 2012
      • In response to the difficult market situation private storage was introduced in February 2011
      • Production is expected to grow slowly in 2011 and then to stagnate in 2012
      • Both live and meat exports could exceed the 2010 volumes in 2011
      • Consumption would decrease slightly in 2011 and then increase next year
  • 9. EU-27 poultrymeat market balance
  • 10. EU pultrymeat perspectives
    • 2010
      • Production increased compared to 2009
      • Declining meat import trend continued
      • Meat exports increased sharply
      • Consumption was close to stagnation
    • 2011 and 2012
      • Production is expected to increase slightly both in 2011 and in 2012 (higher EU domestic demand)
      • World demand for poultrymeat is growing
      • Consumption would increase slightly in 2011 and in 2012
  • 11. EU-27 Sheepmeat balance
  • 12. EU sheep meat market perspectives
    • 2010
      • Demand for sheep meat weakened
      • Consumption fell, reduced breeding flock
      • Live and meat imports to the EU fell
    • 2011 and 2012
      • Production is forecasted to continue falling in 2011 and in 2012 as well
      • Consumption is expected to fall in the following two years
      • Lamb import would increase (New Zealand)
  • 13. Concluding remarks – for 2011
    • Feed prices remain at very high if not increasing again
    • Prices for energy have been increasing since 2011
    • Both import and export trade volumes remain largely unchanged in total terms (shifts in origin/destination naturally according to relative prices)
    • Consumption of beef, pork and sheep meat would have decline with poultry slightly up
    • Stabilization in EU meat demand
  • 14.
    • Thank you for your attention!