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Christian Palliere

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  • 1. The Outlook for EU Agriculture Challenges, constraints and opportunities to productivity The cereals sector COPA COGECA - 29 June 2011
  • 2. Content
    • The challenges ahead, reminder
    • Constraints and uncertainties toward increased productivity
    • Productivity improvement – from where?
    • Fertilizations:
      • Recommendations towards higher productivity
      • Measurable productivity criteria
    • The opportunity of the CAP post-2013
    • Fertilizers Europe forecast 2011-2021
    The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  • 3. Content
    • The challenges ahead, reminder
    • Constraints and uncertainties toward increased productivity
    • Productivity improvement – from where?
    • Fertilizations:
      • Recommendations towards higher productivity
      • Measurable productivity criteria
    • The opportunity of the CAP post-2013
    • Fertilizers Europe forecast 2011-2021
    The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  • 4. The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity More people – Less arable land We must produce more food per hectar World population (in Bn) Arable area (in ha per person) 2030 1998
  • 5. The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity Agricultural areas in EU 15
  • 6. The global economic growth is expected (GDP) to be 3,3 % p.a. towards 2019 Canada China EU India Japan Latin Mexico Middle South USA Amerika East Corea The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  • 7. The challenges ahead
    • World population growth
    • >> +50% in 2050
    • GDP
    • >> income growth leads to diet change (emerging countries)
    • To ensure food security inside EU, and contributing outside
    • To cope with increased demand for non food crops
    • >> by 2030, world need for cereals will rise by 50% (FAO)
    The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  • 8. Content
    • The challenges ahead, reminder
    • Constraints and uncertainties toward increased productivity
    • Productivity improvement – from where?
    • Fertilizations:
      • Recommendations towards higher productivity
      • Measurable productivity criteria
    • The opportunity of the CAP post-2013
    • Fertilizers Europe forecast 2011-2021
    The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  • 9. Constraints and uncertainties toward increased productivity
    • Resource availability
    • Arable land, water availability
    • Agronomic constraints
    • Rotational requirements
    • Soil structure
    • Balanced nutrition
    • Economic constraints
    • High and unpredictable energy prices
    • High price volatility of agricultural commodities
    The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
    • Natural and environmental constraints
    • Extreme weather events (droughts, floods)
    • Climate change and its impacts on cereal yields
    • Ensuring minimum impact on environment
    • Organizational constraints
    • Dissemination of good practice onto farms
    • Policy uncertainties
    • CAP post 2013
    • Biofuels production in EU
    • Market instriment to address price volatility
    • GMO development in EU
  • 10. Increased market volatility in Europe Source: Weekly price development milling wheat, Matif The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  • 11. The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity Comparisons of phosphate inputs and offtakes for UK wheat, not accounting for any manure inputs
  • 12. Financial crisis Lower productivity Imbalanced Nutrition (P,K) The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity Impact of the economic situation on productivity
  • 13. Content
    • The challenges ahead, reminder
    • Constraints and uncertainties toward increased productivity
    • Productivity improvement – from where?
    • Fertilizations:
      • Recommendations towards higher productivity
      • Measurable productivity criteria
    • The opportunity of the CAP post-2013
    • Fertilizers Europe forecast 2011-2021
    The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  • 14. Source: University of Copenhagen Increase in productivity - from where? The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  • 15. Content
    • The challenges ahead, reminder
    • Constraints and uncertainties toward increased productivity
    • Productivity improvement – from where?
    • Fertilizations:
      • Recommendations towards higher productivity
      • Measurable productivity criteria
    • The opportunity of the CAP post-2013
    • Fertilizers Europe forecast 2011-2021
    The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  • 16. Recommendations: Good Fertilizer Practice towards a more productive agriculture
    • Improve extension of scientific and practical knowledge onto farm – best practice and balanced fertilization
        • Improving and monitoring Nitrogen Use Efficiency
        • Use of precision farming techniques ( right rate at right time )
        • Using the appropriate nitrogen form, nitrate vs urea ( right product )
        • Better control of nutrient availability:
          • Urease inhibitors
          • Nitrification inhibitors
        • Localization and/or incorporation ( right place )
    • Improved understanding and use of recycled products on farm and better use efficiency of their nutrients
        • Coordinated use of all nutrient sources
    • Integrated approach of environmental protection
        • Vertical: Life Cycle approach
        • Horizontal: Interactions between environmental compartments
    The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  • 17. Precision farming tools towards Good Agricultural Practice Software and crop monitoring tools help to calculate the right nutrient rate and apply it at the right time => these tools helped to improve Nutrient Use Efficiency The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  • 18. The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity Applying Sustainable Farming principles
  • 19. Productivity criteria / indicator should be measurable : Nitrogen Use Efficiency as an indicator
    • Nitrogen Use Efficiency (NUE) the ratio between the amount of N removed from the field with the harvest and the N applied
    • >> NUE is proposed by an UN ECE Task Force as a « legal instrument » to monitor the implementation of the revised Gothenburg protocol.
    • >> NUE is proposed by a group of scientists as a sustainability indicator for the evaluation of the sustainability of first generation biofuels
    The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  • 20. The N itrogen Use Efficiency in Europe Source: own calculation based on FAO and Fertilizers Europe data N use efficiency (NUE in %) = (N removal/N application) x 100 The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  • 21. Content
    • The challenges ahead, reminder
    • Constraints and uncertainties toward increased productivity
    • Productivity improvement – from where?
    • Fertilizations:
      • Recommendations towards higher productivity
      • Measurable productivity criteria
    • The opportunity of the CAP post-2013
    • Fertilizers Europe forecast 2011-2021
    The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  • 22. CAP post 2013: A policy opportunity
    • Supporting agricultural productivity
    • To boost competitiveness of EU agriculture
          • ensuring farmers’ income while limiting market support
    • To contribute towards food security - a central issue for EU agriculture
          • Both for EU self reliance and contribution to global food supply
    • To help EU agriculture (and forestry) to respond to the new demand for renewable resources
          • Bioenergy, biomass
    • Improving environmental protection while increasing productivity
    • Improving environmental protection is essential for EU agriculture
          • ‘’ Sustainable productive farming systems ’’ (such as IFM) can reconcile productivity and respect for the environment.
    • Mitigation of environmental impacts
          • Increasing productivity in existing cropland and avoiding the need to crop more land will benefit biodiversity and save GHG emissions
    The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  • 23. Content
    • The challenges ahead, reminder
    • Constraints and uncertainties toward increased productivity
    • Productivity improvement – from where?
    • Fertilizations:
      • Recommendations towards higher productivity
      • Measurable productivity criteria
    • The opportunity of the CAP post-2013
    • Fertilizers Europe forecast 2011-2021
    The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  • 24. Fertilizers Europe forecast consumption 2011/2021 (reference 2007) - 13 .6% - 11.3 % >> slow return to 2005/2007 level - 0 .9% The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  • 25. The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity without fertilizer with fertilizer Thank you for your attention! [email_address] any question?