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IBM 2010 Global Technology Outlook - Presentation at IBM Systems Technical University – Lyon, France - 25-29 October, 2010

IBM 2010 Global Technology Outlook - Presentation at IBM Systems Technical University – Lyon, France - 25-29 October, 2010

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  • 1. IBM Systems Technical University – Lyon, France - 25-29 October, 2010 “A Global Technology Outlook from a Systems & Technology Group perspective” Claude Riousset Executive IT Architect IBM Systems & Technology Group « Lite version » © 2010 IBM CorporationGlobal Technology Outlook 2010 - Do not Distribute
  • 2. “Today, innovation is about much more than new products. It is about reinventing business processes and building entirely new markets that meet untapped customer needs. Most important, as the Internet and globalization widen the pool of new ideas, its about selecting and executing the right ideas and bringing them to market in record time.” 2006………… 2009 A Radical Rethink of R&D IBM has launched a major initiative to capitalize on the changes. Its forming tieups with governments, universities, and companies globally to harness new ideas and pursue promising avenues of research. © 2010 IBM Corporation2
  • 3. IBM Research ~3,000 employees China Zurich Tokyo Almaden Watson Haifa Austin India IBM Research Lab © 2010 IBM Corporation3
  • 4. Evolution of IBM Research Collaboration for a Smarter Planet Integrated Solutions Research Agenda Services Software Hardware 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2008 © 2010 IBM Corporation4
  • 5. IBM Research: Collaborative Innovation China Pangoo Zurich Tokyo Almaden Watson Haifa Austin India IBM Research Lab Global, Smarter Planet Collaborations © 2010 IBM Corporation5
  • 6. A diversity of disciplines Behavioral Electrical Computer Science Science Chemistry Engineering Materials Mathematical Science Service Science Science Physics Science & Business & Engineering Management Technology Business Innovation Innovation Social Demand Innovation Innovation Social & Economics & Cognitive Markets Sciences © 2010 IBM Corporation6
  • 7. A Culture of Innovation – External Recognition 9 US National Medals of Technology 5 US National 6 Turing Awards 5 Nobel Laureates Medals of Science Copper Chip Silicon-on- Technology Insulator Nuclear SiGe DRAM Magnetic High Temperature Electron Tunneling Basis for Superconductivity Effect Resonance MRI today High Performance Computing Techniques First woman recipient in the history of Scanning Tunneling Microscope this prestigious ACM award 22 Members in 64 Members in National 10 Inductees in National Academy of > 400 Professional Academy of National Inventors Hall Sciences Society Fellows Engineering of Fame AAAS APS IEEE ACM AVS IOP ACS ECS OSA Laser-etched hair based on excimer laser surgery – foundation for LASIK surgery © 2010 IBM Corporation7
  • 8. 17 Consecutive Years of Patent Leadership 2009 US Patent Leaders 5000 4914 4000 Number of Patents 3000 2906 >3x >15x 2000 1537 1273 1000 289 250 208 141 43 0 IBM Microsoft Intel HP Apple EMC Oracle Google Accenture Source: IFI Patent Intelligence © 2010 IBM Corporation8
  • 9. A legacy of world-class research 2009 Nano MRI 2008 World’s First Petaflop Supercomputer 2005 Cell 2004 Blue Gene/L 2003 Carbon Nanotubes 1997 Copper Interconnect Wiring 1997 Deep Blue 1994 Silicon Germanium (SiGe) 1987 High-Temperature Superconductivity 1986 Scanning Tunneling Microscope 1980 RISC 1971 Speech Recognition 1970 Relational Database 1967 Fractals 1966 One-Device Memory Cell 1957 FORTRAN9 1956 RAMAC © 2010 IBM Corporation
  • 10. 10 Research Contributions Over the Last 10 Years Services WebSphere Systems Database Technology Management Technology Supercomputing Mainframe System Unix Systems Technology Technology Technology Silicon Storage Game Processor Technology Technologies Technology © 2010 IBM Corporation10
  • 11. By 2011, the world will store 10X the Data stored in 2006, BUT, 1,800 10x 1,600 growth in Data over five years 1,400 RFID, Exabytes 1,200 1,000 Digital TV, MP3 players, 800 Digital cameras, Camera phones, VoIP, 600 Medical imaging, Laptops, smart meters, multi-player games, 400 Satellite images, GPS, ATMs, Scanners, Sensors, Digital radio, DLP theaters, Telematics , 200 Peer -to-peer, Email, Instant messaging, Videoconferencing, CAD/CAM, Toys, Industrial machines, Security systems, Appliances 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Internet connected devices will grow by 2000X, from 500M to 1 Trillion, and each will demand that someone “listen”. © 2010 IBM Corporation 11
  • 12. Dominant Technology Trends Conventional CMOS scaling benefits are diminishing. A Conventional CMOS scaling benefits are diminishing. B C Transistor performance Power is limiting practical Single thread performance is scaling to continue, but at a performance slowing dramatically slower rateRelative © 2010 IBM Corporation 12
  • 13. The Core Issue Then and Now; Power As Classical Scaling Ends, Innovation Accelerates CPU 1 L2 Cache CPU 2 Multi-Core SoC / eDRAM Module Heat Flux (watts/cm2) 14 “Lower-Power” Multicore CMOS 12 Innovation Required Bipolar 10 Power4 8 6 Junction Transistor 4 Integrated Water Circuit Cooling 2 Vacuum tube IBM 360 ? 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year of Announcement 3D Integration © 2010 IBM Corporation13 13
  • 14. Holistic Design; Innovation at All Levels of Systems Stack Clouds Help improve Data Center efficiency System Management Allow better asset utilization Hybrid Systems Enhance emerging workload consolidation Security Provide trusted computing 10G Ethernet Enable network fabric convergence 3D Integration Revolutionize chip packaging Flash Increase system performance and efficiency Multi-core Processors Change hardware system design Computational Lithography Extend CMOS density scaling © 2010 IBM Corporation 14
  • 15. Innovation Across Novel Materials, Structures, Processes, andArchitecture Continues … Airgap 3D Chip Stacking eDRAM High-k Frozen SiGe Chip Immersion Dual Core Nanophotonic Switch Atomic Strained Molecular Storage Silicon Processing SOI Nanotube Copper Slowing IC Self Speed of Assembly Light Highest Carbon Resolution Atomic Nanotube STEM Manipulation Transistors Nobel Prize, STM © 2010 IBM Corporation 15
  • 16. IBM demonstrates 100GHz graphene transistor Feb 7th 2010 , IBM researchers announced that they managed to open up a bandgap for graphene-based field-effect transistors, but theyre now already back to show off what thats made possible: a 100GHz graphene transistor. Le graphène est un cristal bidimensionnel (monoplan) carbone dont lempilement constitue le graphite. Les électrons se déplacent sur le graphène à une vitesse de 1 000 km/sec, soit 30 fois la vitesse des électrons dans le silicium. Grâce encore à ses propriétés de cristal bidimensionnel, un transistor de graphène ne séchauffe pas. © 2010 IBM Corporation 16
  • 17. DNA transistor: breakthrough fast sequencing & low cost The sequence of 3 billion chemical units ("letters") that compose a persons genome contains many of the clues for that persons health care. A necessary step towards unfolding those clues and usher the era of personalized medicine is to be able to read those letters, and to do so in fast and cheap way. Research challenge is to create a solid state device, functionalized with addressable electrodes, that reads the sequence of DNA letters as a single DNA molecule translocates through a pore of nanometer size in one day and for less than $1000.17 © 2010 IBM Corporation 17
  • 18. GTO 2010, the genetic map18 © 2010 IBM Corporation GTO 2010
  • 19. 2010 Global Technology Outlook Industry Transformation 1. Enabling Technologies for Healthcare Transformation Evidence-based medicine, payment-for-outcomes Analytics & Optimization 2. Orchestrating the Smarter Planet Models and model orchestration enable integrated operation and optimization Software & Services 3. Software Technology Trends New development models, tools and methods transforming the SW industry 4. Future of Legacy Tools & services to “Identify, Improve and Operate” legacy Systems & Infrastructure 5. Convergence of IT and Wireless Infrastructure IT enabled wireless infrastructure optimizations 6. Workload Optimized Systems HW, SW co-design, integration, optimization © 2010 IBM Corporation19
  • 20. Smarter Traffic - Stockholm Congestion Management © 2010 IBM Corporation20
  • 21. Petascale achieved 2008 . . . Exascale new targetExascale possibilities for a smarter planetMore than doubling the worlds oil reservesexascale computing could predict with incredibleaccuracy the location of oil deposits, increasingthose recovery rates to as high as 70%.Predicting and fighting pandemics in real-timeexascale systems can turn around diseaseprediction, identification and cures in real time,allowing doctors to outrun the epidemics oftomorrow.Real-time analysis of oceans of financialservices data © 2010 IBM Corporation 21
  • 22. Reservoir projects: Resources and Services Virtualization without barriers2010 Research challenges:1. Ease of Integration2. Hypervisor Independence3. Scalability4. Image Provisioning5. Boundaryless Placement and Migration6. Virtual Java Service Container (VJSC) © 2010 IBM Corporation 22
  • 23. Client needs and workloads are definitely not unique Mixed Workloads Parallel Data Structures with Updates to shared data and work queues Analytics Type 1 Type 3 Characteristics vary: Application Usage Pattern SLA Data Structure Highly Threaded Applications Small Discrete Application Instances Type 4 Type 223 One size DOES NOT fit all © 2010 IBM Corporation
  • 24. An Application Specific Solution Stream Computing, aka How not to drown in data A new paradigm for ultra low latency and high throughput in-motion analytics Continuous Ingestion Continuous Queries /Analytics on data in motion © 2010 IBM Corporation 24
  • 25. Streams Processing Building Blocks Transform NYSE Dynamic VWAP P/E Ratio Calculation Calculation Annotate 10 QMillions of Events Earnings Extraction Correlate Join P/E SEC Edgar Earnings with Moving Aggregate Average Impact Caption Calculation Caption Extraction Caption Earnings Extraction Earnings Extraction Topic Related Earnings Earnings Topic Filtration Related News News Topic Filtration Related News Trade Speech Analysis Join Video News Speech Recognition Filtration News Analysis Decision Video News Speech Recognition Analysis Video News Recognition Hurricane Hurricane Forecast Hurricane Model 1 Hurricane Hurricane Weather Forecast Hurricane Hurricane Risk Industry Data Model 2 Forecast Hurricane Impact Encoder Impact Weather Data Extraction Model … Forecast Model N Filter Classify < 1 millisecond latency © 2010 IBM Corporation 25
  • 26. TD Bank referenceBuilding a next generation trading platform Identify and execute trades Process over 5M events per second with average latency of 150 microseconds Expand to incorporate content feeds, news text, audio, video, to establish greater context for better decisions CIO TD Bank "TD Bank Financial Group worked with IBM Research to develop a first-of-a-kind architecture capable of consuming, analyzing and acting on real-time market data while maintaining sub-millisecond response times even under extreme data loads” © 2010 IBM Corporation 26
  • 27. Life-Changing When Applied in Medicine University of Ontario Institute of Technology A Research Project to monitor premature infants in the ICUCorrelating blood oxygenation withblood pressure to predict “Babycrashing”Nosocomial Infection Prediction – Monitoring heart rate variability with other information to predict sepsis – Alarms up to 24 hours earlier than by experienced ICU Nurses © 2010 IBM Corporation 27
  • 28. What makes IBM’s approach so unique? Cloud FLEXIBLE Smart Business Services and DELIVERY Systems CHOICES Integrated Service Management INTEGRATED SERVICE MANAGEMENT Infrastructure-wide Virtualization Workload Optimized Systems System Software System z Power Systems System x Storage Data Center A WORKLOAD Networking OPTIMIZED Technology Leadership APPROACH …..looking at IT service delivery from the business’ perspective.28 © 2010 IBM Corporation
  • 29. 29 © 2010 IBM Corporation