Vision2012 Carlos Richer

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Paper presented at INDA\'s Vision 2012 in January 2012 at New Orleans

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Vision2012 Carlos Richer

  1. 1. Diaper Market Update: Carlos Richer Richer Investment SA de CVNew Orleans, Jan 25 2012
  2. 2. Baby diaper market size and potential by country
  3. 3. Country Mkt Potential 2011 Current Mkt 2011 % Mkt Penetr Growth RateUnited States 22.3 Billions/year 21.3 Billions/year 96% -China 75.7 12.1 16% +++Brazil 15.7 7.7 49% ++Mexico 9.9 6.8 68% +Japan 5.8 5.7 98% -Russia 6.3 4.1 65% +UK 4.1 3.8 95% -Turkey 6.5 3.6 55% +France 3.9 3.7 97% -Indonesia 18.5 3.3 18% +Germany 3.4 3.3 96% -India 99.6 2.4 2% ++South Africa 4.4 2.4 55% +Argentina 3.3 2.4 72% +Italy 2.4 2.2 93% -Korea, South 2.40 2.16 90% =Spain 1.98 1.91 96% -Egypt 8.25 1.73 21% ++Canada 1.88 1.76 94% =Thailand 3.59 1.51 42% +Saudi Arabia 2.18 1.64 75% +Vietnam 6.35 1.59 25% ++Iran 5.86 1.46 25% ++Australia 1.46 1.35 93% =Venezuela 2.27 1.39 61% ++ (*)
  4. 4. Country Mkt Potential 2011 Current Mkt 2011 % Mkt Penetr Growth RateMalaysia 2.49 1.24 50% ++Poland 1.71 1.26 74% +Philippines 10.53 1.05 10% ++Nigeria 20.19 1.01 5% +++Taiwan 1.15 1.09 95% -Colombia 2.210 1.485 67% +Peru 2.333 0.910 39% +Morocco 2.519 0.952 38% ++Netherlands 0.879 0.844 96% -Algeria 2.372 0.688 29% +Pakistan 19.043 0.571 3% ++Chile 1.090 0.572 53% +Belgim 0.570 0.541 95% -Ukraine 1.998 0.500 25% +Kazakhstan 1.079 0.496 46% +Azerbaijan 0.733 0.498 68% ++Portugal 0.500 0.483 97% -Greece 0.507 0.457 90% =Sweden 0.500 0.464 93% -Hungary 0.488 0.440 90% =Romania 0.959 0.423 44% ++Libya 0.654 0.392 60% +Arab Emirates 0.400 0.388 97% +Guatemala 1.542 0.407 26% +Ecuador 1.270 0.381 30% +
  5. 5. Country Mkt Potential 2011 Current Mkt 2011 % Mkt Penetr Growth RateCzech Republic 0.420 0.393 93% +Angola 2.325 0.349 15% ++Syria 2.229 0.334 15% +Ireland 0.348 0.347 100% =Iraq 3.587 0.323 9% +Dom.Republic 0.799 0.338 42% +Swistzeralnd 0.370 0.352 95% -Austria 0.360 0.346 96% =Tunisia 0.674 0.304 45% =Bangladesh 15.058 0.301 2% +Hong Kong 0.310 0.294 95% -Kuwait 0.290 0.270 93% +Sri Lanka 1.439 0.259 18% +Denmark 0.290 0.275 95% +Oman 0.292 0.248 85% +New Zeland 0.293 0.273 93% =Finland 0.287 0.276 96% -Slovakia 0.264 0.237 90% +Belarus 0.450 0.247 55% ++Singapore 0.230 0.219 95% =Sudan 6.607 0.198 3% ++Lebanon 0.314 0.204 65% +Bulgaria 0.323 0.194 60% +Cuba 0.542 0.163 30% +Puerto Rico 0.207 0.165 80% +
  6. 6. World Statistics for baby diapers* (* updated Jan, 2012) 7 Billion people live in our planet today. 129.6 Million babies were born in 2011. 326 Million babies between 0 to 30 Months live today. 342 million diapers will be changed today (Jan 25) World market penetration for disposable diapers today is 21% One third of the world remains with < 2% market penetration. Only 8.5% of the world with market penetration >90% About 817 baby diaper machines are running today.
  7. 7. Chassis Design World Trends For Baby Diapers
  8. 8. 2012 China USA Europe Australia S. America MEKCP&GSCAOther Hengan, Ontex, Asda, Chiaus, Sainsbury, Unicharm Carrefour DSG, Impex KC- Italy
  9. 9. Diaper Chassis Trends Core Trends………(Increased Density, ADL, lower 3D ratios)Fastening Trends…..(BOPP, Hook, Loopless)Elastic Trends….. Stretchable sides…Fully stretchable
  10. 10. Baby Pants Trends
  11. 11. Baby Pants .vs. Baby Diapers in Japan 100 Baby Pants Baby Diapers 90 80 70 Compare with only 14.5% of pant sales in USA in 2010% of Total Sales 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1992 1995 2005 2010 2011 Year
  12. 12. 0.50 0.45$ Unitary Price in USD 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 KC Little KC L. Movers KC Slip On KC Pull Movers 4 (37 Cameo 37 Lb 4, 37 lb Ups, 40 lb lb)
  13. 13. Confidential
  14. 14. Elastic Side PanelsF: 100 mm X 100 mmB: 140 mm X 130 mm“Loopless System" Lycra Slip-On Confidential
  15. 15. KC’s Little Movers Slip On - Data Instead of Spandex it uses an exclusive elastomeric material extruded in threads apparently manufactured on an Off-Line centralized site and then shipped all over the world to all its factories. The total GSM of the side panels is 125 GSM while relaxed and 40 GSM while extended. Elastic material is used at 24 GSM while Relaxed or 8 GSM stretched. Maximum elongation is 500% versus 300% for Spandex. Retractile force is about 40% of Spandex, you need more threads. It may be less expensive than other commercial side panels in the market Confidential
  16. 16. Adult diaper marketpotential by country
  17. 17. Grow of people >65 between 2012 and 2025 225 200 175 Older>65 Y2012 Older>65 Y2025Millions of People 150 125 100 75 50 25 0
  18. 18. Grow of people >65 between 2012 and 2025 14 Older>65 Y2012 Older>65 Y2025 12 10Million of People 8 6 4 2 0
  19. 19. What is the biggest diaper market with an unmet need today?Incontinence Diapers for those with Limited Mobility
  20. 20. Adult Incontinence: a new perspective Medical literature usually classify Incontinence in subgroups: Stress, Urge, Overflow, Mixed, and Bowel Incontinence. 31 million people in the US have Incontinence: 26 MM have urinary incontinent and 5 MM are bowel incontinent. It is estimated that 1/10 of the world population is incontinent. Let us explore incontinence by looking at it from the perspective of the users and not their urinary condition: Active Adults; and Bedridden or Wheelchair patients. How much risk do each have in relation to Incontinence Associated Dermatitis (IAD)?
  21. 21. Incontinence and Limited Mobility When an Active adult is wet, he/she is capable of changing the diaper. This action results in minimal risk of irritation to the skin and minimal IAD; being active helps to have healthy skin, for sure somewhat compromised with age. Babies are constantly cared by their parents, in addition they have the most elastic skin; because its young, baby’s skin is more resistant to damage than any other. Bedridden Adults and people in Wheelchairs are several times more prone to skin infections and IAD than babies or Active Adults due to weaker skin, the lack of mobility (pressure sores), and less overall care or attention.
  22. 22. Who needs the better diaper?Who is using the best diaper?
  23. 23. The Diaper Paradox Only those who do not have alternatives, such as bedridden, or those who are in wheelchairs or hospitalized in intensive care, will be the only ones forced to use a diaper, they do not have a valid alternative. Most of these bedridden patients end up in Institutions. Institutional US diapers are close to being the worst in the world. The Paradox: People that require the best diapers many times end up using the worst performance products just because of government regulations. Many times the cost of skin control medications is by far more expensive than the cost of the diapers, many times the patience die because of skin infection that started with IAD. Using under-beds as a treatment for frequent or regular incontinence is a solution that denigrates users, in my opinion, they should be banned of this use.
  24. 24. What can be done? A new national health regulation is needed, it must be based on the needs of each kind of institutional patient, active and non active. Diapers designed for adults without mobility should be much drier than commercial diapers and also provide the required pH to help the skin with an acidic 4.5 pH and a low friction surface. A good solution is a diaper with an acidic top-layer separated from the alkaline poly-acrylate liquid retention region. This could be either curly fiber or a specially made ADL. (BMC Geriatr, France Nov 2010). Wetness in the diaper increases the toxicity of fecal incontinence as solid feces dissolve. Wetness is the most important cause of IAD, it is also the origin of main discomfort due to heath exchange from the body to the cold urine. Removing the urine from the diaper helps to eliminate the problem. What is the industry doing ?
  25. 25. UNICHARM’s Humany
  26. 26. Humany Unicharm A robot costing more than $1,284 USD per unit. Each disposable diaper has a cost of $3 Designed for adult male users…. What about females? There are 3 Females for every male with incontinence. Uses an electronic sensor and a pump. Is this a good solution? Is there a better alternative? FOR SURE!! A new diaper that may cost less than a regular commercial diaper!
  27. 27. (2) (1)A suction cup made of rigid material (magnets attached with a cord) Why a 1,320 solution when you can do the same with $9.99
  28. 28. (2) (10) (3a) (30) (4) (3b)(3c) (30)
  29. 29. (32) (2) (10) (1) (31) (4)
  30. 30. (28) (27)(29) (27)
  31. 31. Right idea….wrong approach Vacuum Dry Diaper was the wrong name! It is not a theoretical idea it is a proven concept We showed working prototypes at the Idea show in Miami. We demonstrated our concept to many companies… It works! The industry reacted in a defensive way… threatened… What we have invented is not a diaper it is a PDT: Personal Disposable Toilet The best solution yet for adult incontinence without mobility
  32. 32. Join the Disposable Diaper Network Group: www.linkedin.com/e/gis/136568 www.disposablediaper.net Thank You Questions? What do I do? Diaper Factory Audits Strategic Planning Feasibility StudiesCarlos Richer Benchmark ReportsRicher Investment SA de CVDiaper Consulting Services Technical Support, R&Dwww.disposablediaper.net Machine Appraisalscricher@richernet.com Insurance Claims Expert Witness
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