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D&B Business Optimism Turkey, 1Q 2013

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D&B Business Optimism Index is a reliable indicator for all economic actors, revealing the expectations …

D&B Business Optimism Index is a reliable indicator for all economic actors, revealing the expectations
of business circles as regards the general economy, their sectors and companies for the near future.
The index is calculated every three months with the participation of select business people
considered to be opinion leaders.
In particular, the analysis are calculated for the Turkish companies.


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  • 1. Economic Analysis Group D&B Business Optimism Index Q1 2013 Turkish business leaders are confident about the economy and their companies for the first quarter of 2013. At 54.22, D&B Business Optimism Index is 38% above its previous value and at its highest ever level in two years. D&B's 2013 Global Forecast Suggests an Uncertain Outlook Despite favorable developments in the business world, falling debt levels due to fiscal and social measures and the resulting relative optimism, the crisis of the euro zone continues to have a negative impact across the world. D&B's forecast models and country risk analyses indicate that not only will global growth remain weak in early 2013, but also a number of markets will face strong headwinds throughout the year. The recovery process following the great stagnation of the year 2008 continues to weigh on global economies. Despite these developments, certain companies revise and restructure their activities, improve their capability of anticipating future economic conditions and invest more to boost productivity and adapt to the present conditions. In fact, statistics suggest that the business world is financially much more sound than it was before the crisis. However, these gains are shadowed by social and political pressures in the USA and the world and by the interdependency of global economic actors. The fact that China sees a fall in the European demand for its products creates a downward pressure on the growth rates of a number of emerging markets. Coupled with domestic economic problems, this lead to a weaker-than-anticipated performance by certain emerging markets, which in turn caused fluctuations in many commodity-rich countries. As all regions of the world grappled with different problems in 2012, enterprises strived to adapt themselves to a stagnant and long recovery process. On the other hand, this situation helped enterprises brace themselves for the challenges and risks which they could face in 2013 and beyond. Paul Ballew D&B Chief Economist D&B Business Optimism Index (Q1 2013) stands at 54.22. The Index went from 39 in the final quarter of 2012 to 54.22 in the first quarter of 2013. In our opinion, the reason underlying this 40% uptick is the optimism underpinned by ongoing national economic stability, as well as Fitch’s decision to upgrade Turkey's credit rating from BB to the investment grade of BBB-. In previous quarters, Turkish business people were sanguine about the performance of their own companies, yet slightly gloomy about the general economic outlook. However, this quarter saw this overall trend change, with business people generally optimistic about all indicators. Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Average of optimists %48 %49 %39 %54 Average of pessimists %8 %11 %18 %10 Average of those expecting no change %44 %40 %43 %36 It should be noted that a number of business people left the ranks of pessimists and of those expecting no change, to join the optimistic camp. Q2 = second quarter 2012 Q3 = third quarter 2012 Q4 = fourth quarter 2012 Q1 = first quarter 2013 Dun & Bradstreet Bilgi ve Danışmanlık A.Ş. Sun Plaza B Blok Bilim Sok. No: 5 34398 Maslak İstanbul Türkiye T +90 212 365 40 40 - 258 72 72 (pbx) F +90 212 258 32 72 www.dnbturkey.com Risk Management Solutions Sales & Marketing Solutions Supply Management Solutions Economic Analysis Group Learning & Training Services Consultancy Services
  • 2. The analysis of the responses to the questions yields the following results: How will the general economic situation evolve in the next quarter? How will the economic situation in your sector evolve in the next quarter? Overall, the ranks of optimists have swollen by 14 percentage points. However, a significant number of respondents still expect no change in the overall economic outlook, which indeed is good news. The number of those pessimists about the general economy has halved from the previous quarter. After a year-end gloom, we seem to be back to the sanguinity of the third quarter of 2012. There are similarly positive expectations as regards specific firms. In this regard, one third of participants expect no change, whereas the number of optimists has suddenly jumped from 36% to 56%, corresponding to an increase of 20 percentage points. Pessimists, who used to account for one quarter of all respondents in the previous quarter, now stand at just 7% - its lowest level in two years. Positive Negative Same Positive Negative Same The turnover of your company in the next quarter The percentage of those expecting a turnover increase has gone from 59% to 73% for the first quarter of 2013. This is a critical gauge. Such an increase can be attributed to a shift from the ranks of those expecting no change. Increase Decrease Same
  • 3. The net profit of your company in the next quarter As regards the first quarter of 2013, less people expect an increase in net profits than in turnover, just like the case for the third and fourth quarters of 2012. The hike in the number of optimists corresponds exactly to the fall in the number of those expecting business as usual. The percentage of business people anticipating a drop in net profits, on the other hand, stands at 9% - just like it has done throughout last year. Increase Decrease Same The headcount in your company in the next quarter Participants also expect an expansion in the workforce of their companies. Almost 50% envisage an increase in hiring, which comes as good news in the face of sticky unemployment figures. Increase Decrease Same Your company’s access to credit facilities in the next quarter Anticipations about access to credit also fare positively, in parallel with other findings. Increase Decrease Same
  • 4. Dun & Bradstreet Bilgi ve Danışmanlık A.Ş. Sun Plaza B Blok Bilim Sok. No: 5 34398 Maslak İstanbul Türkiye T +90 212 365 40 40 - 258 72 72 (pbx) F +90 212 258 32 72 www.dnbturkey.com Conclusion Although some critics suggested that credit rating companies have lost their credibility, Fitch’s decision to upgrade Turkey to investment grade seems to have had a very positive impact on the Turkish business environment. Business sentiment has turned from a slightly pessimistic outlook in the previous quarter to a rather sanguine one for the first quarter of 2013. Expectations have a determining impact on the itinerary of the economy. It is pleasing to observe such positive expectations, even as the crisis continues to ravage Europe, the global economic outlook remains ambiguous, national economic growth has started to sag and regional economies face strong headwinds. The message seems to be “the Turkish business world is confident in the national economy and itself”. In case this trend continues, our response to the much-discussed question “how much will the economy grow in 2013?” should be, “higher-than-anticipated”. Sectors of Respondents Respondents of the survey for Q1 2013 are from the iron&steel and basic metals industry, furniture manufacturing, automotive ancillary industry, land passenger transport, the media, carpets, yarn and textile, agricultural industry, ship and yacht building, petroleum and mineral oil, wholesale trade, miscellaneous services and consultancy, office machines, factoring, banking, insurance, leasing, stickers, metal equipments for kitchen and industry, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, IT, energy, logistics, health, packaging, construction, food, miscellaneous retailing, cement, construction materials manufacturing, education, telecommunications, precious metals and mining industry, as well as various chambers of commerce. About D&B Business Optimism Index D&B Business Optimism Index is a reliable indicator for all economic actors, revealing the expectations of business circles as regards the general economy, their sectors and companies for the near future. Dun & Bradstreet started publishing their D&B Business Optimism Index covering 15 nations in 1947. The index is calculated every three months with the participation of select business people considered to be opinion leaders. In the long term, the index reveals significant turning points in a national economy. In participating countries, D&B Business Optimism Index has helped business people make the right decisions, and has become a critical indicator functioning as the “voice of the market”, closely followed by business circles. Methodology The index is calculated according to the weight of positive responses to every question; in addition, the percentages of those expecting negative or no change are also provided for each question. A detailed analysis of the results are released complete with the views and comments of D&B economists. Q2 2013 Index The questionnaires of the D&B Business Optimism Index Q2 2013 survey will be distributed on January 2nd, the calculation will be carried out on March 15th-17th and the results will be released on April 2nd. For all queries and further information, please contact D&B Economic Analysis Group. eag@dnbturkey.com T: +90 212 365 40 40 – 258 72 72 (pbx) Copyright Dun & Bradstreet Bilgi ve Danışmanlık A.Ş. Reproduction and transmission in any from without permission is prohibited. All rights reserved. While Dun & Bradstreet Bilgi ve Danışmanlık A.Ş. endeavours to ensure accuracy of information contained in this publication, it does not accept any responsibility for any loss or damage to any person resulting from reliance on it. Risk Management Solutions Sales & Marketing Solutions Supply Management Solutions Economic Analysis Group Learning & Training Services Consultancy Services