Strategy foresight presentation for ICLcity 2011 city university


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Presentation given by Nasir Hussain at the innovation Creativity and leadership event held at City University London on 13th June 2011

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Strategy foresight presentation for ICLcity 2011 city university

  1. 1. Demonstration of Human Computer Interaction of Morphological Analysis for Design InnovationNasir Hussain<br />City University London – Innovation, Creativity and Leadership, 13 June 2011<br />
  2. 2. You can run the world for two days<br />Advanced communication and life-support<br />Armoured plating – leakproof petrol tank<br />Defence countermeasures – tear gas, smoke grenades..<br />
  3. 3. Oops!<br />
  4. 4. What is Morphological Analysis ?<br />A generalised problem-structuring method, using Extended Typology Analysis, for structuring and analyzing complex problem fields which :<br /> - Are inherently non-quantifiable<br /> - Contain non-resolvable uncertainties<br /> - Cannot be causally modelled or simulated<br /> - Require a judgemental approach<br />
  5. 5. Developed by Fritz Zwicky for tackling complex, multi-dimensional socio-technical design problems<br />Fritz Zwicky (1898 - 1974)<br />Professor of Astronomy, Caltech (1942-68)<br />Co-founder Aerojet Engineering Corporation<br />Developed Morphological Analysis as a problem-structuring method to address genuine uncertainty and stress test boundary conditions, resulting in discovery of:<br />Dark matter (1934)<br />Triple hypothesis - supernova, neutron stars, and cosmic rays (1934)<br />Gravitational lensing (1937)<br />
  6. 6. A typology interrelates simple terms, concepts and ideas in order to explore the more complex concepts that arise from compounding these simple discrete attributes. <br />Antigen A<br />+ A - A<br />+ B<br />Antigen B<br />- B<br />2-D Morphological Table<br />
  7. 7. Visually, a typology uses the dimensions of a physical space to represent its dimensions - however this ends at three <br />3-D Morphological Table<br />Complex design problems have more than 3 dimensions – where do we place the Nth dimension and interrelate the variables?<br />
  8. 8. Demonstration of CARMA®<br />Inputs<br />Outputs<br />The above example depicts 186,624 formal combinations – with facilitation and proprietary software this can reduced by over 99%<br />
  9. 9. Roy (2004) describes MA “a problem which is broken down into component variables and then association is when the variables are matched to form new ideas”<br /><ul><li>The “problem” has to be exceedingly complex – often referred to as “wicked problems” or “unstructured reality”
  10. 10. The “breaking down”, or deconstruction, of the problem (or mess) into the variables requires strong independent facilitation
  11. 11. The “association” is in fact the Cross Consistency Analysis: every pair of cells (i.e. conditions or states) must be compatible </li></ul> i.e. “form follows function” (Louis Sullivan, 1896)<br />*Redesigning the Future, Russell Ackoff (1974)<br />
  12. 12. Morphological Analysis has been used for:<br /><ul><li>Creativity in product design / avoiding unintended consequences
  13. 13. Analyzing and developing organisational and system structures
  14. 14. Developing complex modelling laboratories – "what if" scenarios
  15. 15. Structuring and analyzing complex policy spaces
  16. 16. Performing a very advanced form of competitive / knowledge gap analysis</li></li></ul><li>Morphological Analysis is a Precursor to other Non-Quantitative Modelling and Quantitative Techniques<br />Bayesian Belief Networks<br />Assigning a probability to an event to give indication how strongly client believes an event will occur<br />Morphological Analysis<br />Structure (dimensionalise) the problem complex <br />Analytic Hierarchy Process<br />Decision-making process for prioritising alternatives when multiple criteria must be considered<br />
  17. 17. Strategy Foresight LLP and partners have completed 125+ projects across the globe<br />Design of military boots (Sweden)<br />Alternative organisational structures for government research organisations (ND)<br />Predicting and mitigating risks to corporate reputation (UK)*<br />Future international organisational structure for FMCG (Sweden)*<br />Governance of scientific and technological development (US)<br />Improving quality and quantity of investment deal flow (City University)*<br />* current projects<br />
  18. 18. Contacting Strategy Foresight LLP<br />Strategy Foresight Partnership LLP<br />Innovation Warehouse<br />1 East Poultry Avenue<br />Farringdon <br />London EC1A 9PT<br />Tel: 07786 266878<br />Fax: 0208 8612925<br />Email:<br />Web:<br />
  19. 19. Wicked problems are multi-faceted, multi-dimensional problems that reside within organisations<br />Not easily quantifiable – little data, uncertain data, incomplete data<br />Continually developing and mutating<br />Full of ambiguities, contradictions and vicious circles<br />Very strongly stakeholder oriented with strong political, moral and professional issues<br />Reactive: the problem fights back<br />‘Wicked problems’<br />H. Rittel & M. Webber (1973)<br />Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning<br />Policy Sciences, 4: 155-169<br />
  20. 20. Strategy Foresight facilitates entire process by:<br />Deploying highly experienced<br />facilitators<br /><ul><li> Policy formulation
  21. 21. Product design
  22. 22. Business intelligence
  23. 23. Crisis planning
  24. 24. Futures research</li></ul>Stretch<br />Capture<br />Shape<br />Select<br />Prioritise<br />Designing specialist workshop teams<br />Using processes developed in the military<br />
  25. 25. Strategy Foresight is not a consulting firm<br />Facilitators who work with very complex issues aka ‘wicked problems’<br />Model unintended consequences of policy design, board decisions etc.<br />Proprietary software – models developed in real time with the clients<br />No army of researchers – the client’s workshop team are the specialists<br />
  26. 26. …..and provide clients with novel software to construct their own scenarios and strategy alternatives<br />Input and outputs interchangeable - manipulate both cause and effect<br />Ability to freeze and compare scenarios and strategy alternatives<br />Reducing decision alternatives does not require re-developing entire model<br />Easily updatable: visual, real time systematic group exploration for collective creativity and decision-making<br />Speed, efficiency and cost of facilitation and model development is a fraction of traditional consultancies<br />
  27. 27. Strategy foresight engages clients and stakeholders with their complex challenges – aka ‘Wicked Problems’<br />Wicked problem (Rittel et al 1973)<br />Compare a Tame Problem<br />Not easily quantifiable due to uncertain or incomplete information<br />Continually developing and mutating<br />Full of ambiguities, contradictions and circular causality<br />Stakeholder oriented with strong political, moral & professional issues<br />Reactive: the problem fights back<br />Has a relatively well-defined and stable problem statement<br />Has a definite stopping point i.e. we know when the solution is reached<br />Binary solutions: objectively evaluated as being right or wrong<br />Has solutions which can be tried and abandoned<br />