Yellow River Basin: Living with
                               Scarcity

                             Claudia Ringler and ...
PROJECT OBJECTIVES
          Study water poverty, water availability
          and access, water productivity, and
       ...
BACKGROUND
Basin Area: 795,000 km2 (incl
             inland basin of ~40,000 km2)
             Pop: 120-200 million (150-250/km2)
  ...
Water Balance in the YRB
                                 KEY UPSTREAM BASINS
                                 U/s: 31 BCM...
Land cover map, YRB




INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Yellow River Basin population density
WP2
Water Balance in the YRB




Precipitation: 466 mm/a = 370 BCM/a
Potential Evap: 800-1000 mm/a in South
               180...
Kuye River
   Lanzhou upstream   Wuding River                                 Runoff:10.34;
   Runoff: 364;       Runof:14...
Water Scarcity in the Yellow River Basin: Physical
                     Scarcity
 Share of country total (%)
 100%

   80%...
Key off-stream water uses (1998-2000)


                            Domestic
                              7%
            ...
YELLOW RIVER WATER USE BY SECTOR

  Years    Reach Total Agricultural Industrial Domestic
1988-1992a Upper 13.11       12....
Increasing Water Competition in China
               (Similar trend in the YRB)



                            1          ...
Main Irrigated Areas in the YRB




INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Slowdown in irrigated area expansion


                                                                     7.5




      ...
Key crops (18 m ha)



                          Other
                          cereals              Rice
               ...
Days without discharge at the
                downstream flow station
      Unit: days
250

200

150

100

 50

  0
  72

...
Agricultural Water Consumption
  100 million cubic meters
350
                                     286,1   299,6   292,5
3...
Water quality

          About 5 BCM of wastewater
          Rapid decline in water quality—at an
          unknown cost t...
Climate change analysis (SWAT)
                         200                     Lanzhou                                   ...
Climate change analysis
                          Lanzhou
            2000                     兰州

            1600       ...
WP3
Results of irrigated and rainfed area

             Crops    Basin-wide      Middle stream   Downstream
             Rice ...
Irrigation requirement




          29
Results of irrigated and rainfed yield

            Crops    Basin-wide    Mid-stream   Downstream
            Rice       ...
Results of WPI




   31
Results of WPI

                            Area Weighted WPI(kg/m3)
  Region/Crops
                     Rice         Corn...
Results of WPR




     33
Results of WPR

                              Area Weighted WPR(kg/m3)
  Region/Crops
                       Rice        C...
WP3
         Irrigated yield is significantly higher than
         the rainfed yield for corn, and soybean in
         dif...
WP3
          WPI and WPR vary spatially from upstream
          to downstream with both climate and water
          suppl...
WP3

          Irrigation stabilizes the crop production
          per unit of water consumption.
          Croplands have...
WP4
Basics--WATER
          State Water Council is final authority for
          water allocation
          2002 Water Law, bu...
1987 Water Allocation Agreement
                        (37BCM)
             8
             7
             6
             ...
Basics--FOOD
          Government is pushing agriculture to
          its limits: striving for continued food
          se...
What limits higher
                     productivity/WUE?
          Proximity to profitable non-farm
          income redu...
WP4 Measures to increase water
      productivity and deal with water shortages

          Reforming irrigation management...
Water Pricing Reform

         In the past 15 years, water price in most ID has
         increased;
         Can water pri...
Water Use and Incentives
    Unit: m3/ha
35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

 5000

    0
            Wheat         ...
Water Productivity and Incentives
    Unit: m3/ha
35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

 5000

    0
            Wheat...
Crop Yield and Incentives
   Unit: kg/ha
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
   0
           Wheat                  Ma...
Water Allocation among Regions

         Upstream regions use more water than the
         water quota allocated by YRCC; ...
WATER VERSUS AG POLICY –Zero-
                   sum game?
         AGRICULTURE POLICY HURTING WATER:
          fertilizer...
Poverty headcount varies widely across
                provinces in the YRB




INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITU...
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE   Page 52
Wheat yields are higher for the non-poor
       than that for the poor living in irrigated
              and non-irrigated...
To what extent does access to water
                    reduce poverty?

          Results of our multivariate analysis
  ...
Poverty Incidence
        Unit: %
     20
     18
     16
     14
     12
     10
       8
       6
       4
       2
    ...
Poverty Distribution along canals in the YRB (2001)

                    Reach of IDs   Poverty incidence (%)
 Ningxia
   ...
HH Characteristics by Income Class
              Ningxia/Henan (2001)
               Per     Share of income (%)   Share
 ...
HH Characteristics by Income Class
                      (2001)
                                             Cultivate
   ...
Basin Diagnostic Tour
          Water scarcity considered the largest
          problem for irrigation
          Water fee...
Basin Diagnostic Tour
          Most farmers are part-time [small land
          area, many non-farm employment
          ...
Pathway out of Poverty
                              Ningxia   Shaanxi Henan
Non-farm employment             1         1  ...
Who Uses Water more Efficiently and
                       Effectively?
       Unit: m3/ha
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2...
Water Allocation Priority

              Ningxia   Shaanxi   Henan


 Domestic       1         1         1

 Industry     ...
Review paper on past and
               current interventions
          From water supply to water demand
          manage...
Environmental   Poverty   Food
                    Low cost   Reach
                                            impact    ...
Environmental   Poverty   Food
                    Low cost   Reach




                                                  ...
Study of Alternative
                     Interventions


          Modeling tools (YRCC HYDROLOGIC
          MODEL, SWAT,...
Multi-Agent System Model

                                                                                   A2           ...
Apply MAS framework to YRB


                           Yellow River Basin
                             MAS-Modeling




U...
Conclusions

          Highly water scarce basin, but still room
          for water conservation in irrigation and
      ...
FINAL RESEARCH PAPERS

     1. Relation between water and poverty in the
        Yellow River Basin (Akhter, Jinxia, and
 ...
FINAL RESEARCH PAPERS


       4. Water productivity under water scarcity
          in the Yellow River Basin (Ximing, Yi-...
FINAL RESEARCH PAPERS


     8. Application of Multi-Agent System (MAS)
        Modeling to the YRB (Ximing and others)
  ...
Yellow River Basin: Living with Scarcity
Yellow River Basin: Living with Scarcity
Yellow River Basin: Living with Scarcity
Yellow River Basin: Living with Scarcity
Yellow River Basin: Living with Scarcity
Yellow River Basin: Living with Scarcity
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Yellow River Basin: Living with Scarcity

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Presented at the Basin Focal Project workshop 'Clarifying the global picture of water, food and poverty' from 18-20th September in Chiang Mai, Thailand.

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Yellow River Basin: Living with Scarcity

  1. 1. Yellow River Basin: Living with Scarcity Claudia Ringler and Ximing Cai et al. Chiang Mai Sep 18-20, 2009 College of Water Sciences, 1 BNU
  2. 2. PROJECT OBJECTIVES Study water poverty, water availability and access, water productivity, and water and related institutions in the YRB to develop and rank a series of high- priority interventions aimed at increasing water and food security for the poor while maintaining environmental sustainability INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  3. 3. BACKGROUND
  4. 4. Basin Area: 795,000 km2 (incl inland basin of ~40,000 km2) Pop: 120-200 million (150-250/km2) River Length: 5,454 km Elevation Drop: 4,480 m GDP : US$88 billion Cultiv land: ~12 million ha, 6-8 m ha irrigated Ningxia Shaanxi Avg rainfall: 450-60 mm Avg runoff: 58->53.5 BCM GW: 11-14 BCM Total volume: 71.9 BCM Henan Per cap water: 590 m3 Sedim conc 35kg/m3
  5. 5. Water Balance in the YRB KEY UPSTREAM BASINS U/s: 31 BCM, M/s: 20 BCM, D/s: 2 BCM Lanzhou upstream Area: 222,551; 30% Runoff: 313.1; 54% Unit: Area: km2 Runoff: ×108m3 Wei River Area: 134,766; 18% Runoff: 100.4; 17% College of Water Sciences, BNU
  6. 6. Land cover map, YRB INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  7. 7. Yellow River Basin population density
  8. 8. WP2
  9. 9. Water Balance in the YRB Precipitation: 466 mm/a = 370 BCM/a Potential Evap: 800-1000 mm/a in South 1800-2000 mm/a in North Runoff: ~58 BCM/a (53.5 BCM/a in the updated YRCC assessment)
  10. 10. Kuye River Lanzhou upstream Wuding River Runoff:10.34; Runoff: 364; Runof:14.1; Per.: 1.5% Per.: 55.6% Per.: 2.2% Sanchuan River Runoff:6.63; Per.: 1% : Unit: × Runoff:×108 m3 Wei River Yiluo River Qin River Runoff:120.7; Runoff:33.1; Runoff:19.1; Per.: 18.4% Per.: 5.% Per.: 2.9% WP 2: Analysis of water availability and access SWAT-BNU - Runoff percentage: 86.6%
  11. 11. Water Scarcity in the Yellow River Basin: Physical Scarcity Share of country total (%) 100% 80% 60% 40% 25% 17% 20% 2% 0% Annual runoff Per capita water Water availability for availability cultivated land
  12. 12. Key off-stream water uses (1998-2000) Domestic 7% Industry 12% Agricult 81% plus estimated 20 BCM needed for sediment flushing INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  13. 13. YELLOW RIVER WATER USE BY SECTOR Years Reach Total Agricultural Industrial Domestic 1988-1992a Upper 13.11 12.38 0.51 0.22 Middle 5.44 4.77 0.38 0.28 Lower 12.18 11.24 0.55 0.38 Basin 30.72 28.39 1.45 0.89 2002- Upper 17.54 15.71 1.42 0.41 2004b Middle 5.71 4.16 0.97 0.58 Lower 8.44 7.04 0.82 0.58 Basin 31.69 26.91 3.21 1.57 Difference Upper 34% 27% 179% 84% Middle 5% -13% 155% 108% Lower -31% -37% 49% 54% Basin 3% -5% 121% 77% a Data from Chen (2002). b YRCC Water Resources Bulletins of 2002-2004.
  14. 14. Increasing Water Competition in China (Similar trend in the YRB) 1 1 100% 2 11 13 80% 22 60% Domestic 97 Industry 88 40% Agriculture 65 20% 0% 1949 1978 2004 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  15. 15. Main Irrigated Areas in the YRB INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  16. 16. Slowdown in irrigated area expansion 7.5 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  17. 17. Key crops (18 m ha) Other cereals Rice 15% 2% Tubers Wheat 10% 44% Soybean 6% Maize 23% INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  18. 18. Days without discharge at the downstream flow station Unit: days 250 200 150 100 50 0 72 75 78 80 82 87 89 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 Flow restoration benefit: US$2.5 billion (ind/dom/ag/env)
  19. 19. Agricultural Water Consumption 100 million cubic meters 350 286,1 299,6 292,5 300 249,8 250 200 177,7 150 122,3 100 50 0 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2006
  20. 20. Water quality About 5 BCM of wastewater Rapid decline in water quality—at an unknown cost to the basin WQ above level III dropped from 80% in the 1980s to 60% in the 1990s and less than 20% by 2002 since then some progress with WQ improvement Wetlands shrank by 50% over the last 20 years (CP 2nd call project on topic) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  21. 21. Climate change analysis (SWAT) 200 Lanzhou 50 Wei 年平均降水距平百分率 40 150 P recipitatio n(m m ) 30 5年滑动平均降水距平百分率 100 20 50 10 0 0 -50 -10 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 -20 -100 -30 -150 -40 0 5 0 1975 0 5 1990 5 0 196 196 197 198 198 199 200 -50 年 (b) 10.0 2.0 1.5 9.5 Temperature(℃) 1.0 9.0 0.5 8.5 0.0 8.0 -0.5 7.5 -1.0 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 7.0 196 196 197 197 198 198 199 199 200 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE 8 2 6 0 4 8 2 6 0 4 (b) 1 95 1 96 1 96 1 97 1 97 1 97 1 98 1 98 1 99 1 99
  22. 22. Climate change analysis Lanzhou 2000 兰州 1600 Baseline Overall lower runoff 2020s despite additional 月流量(m /s) 1200 2050s 3 2080s precipitation under 800 Had SRES B2 400 0 Wei Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 250.0 (d) Q(m3 /s) Lanzhou 200.0 Observed Simulated 2010s 2020s 150.0 2030s 2050s 100.0 50.0 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE 0.0 1 3 5 7 9 11 Month
  23. 23. WP3
  24. 24. Results of irrigated and rainfed area Crops Basin-wide Middle stream Downstream Rice 25.2 13.0 12.3 AI Corn 540.2 254.3 284.9 (1000 ha) Wheat 1141.0 536.4 597.7 Soybean 149.6 80.6 69.0 Rice 0.0 0.0 0.0 AR Corn 68.8 30.3 37.9 (1000 ha) Wheat 0.0 0.0 0.0 Soybean 30.1 14.3 15.8 28
  25. 25. Irrigation requirement 29
  26. 26. Results of irrigated and rainfed yield Crops Basin-wide Mid-stream Downstream Rice 5.4 5.5 5.3 YI Corn 5.3 5.0 5.7 (ton/ha) Wheat 3.7 2.8 4.4 Soybean 1.4 1.2 1.7 Rice 0.0 0.0 0.0 YR Corn 3.0 1.9 4.0 (ton/ha) Wheat 0.0 0.0 0.0 Soybean 1.4 1.0 1.9 30
  27. 27. Results of WPI 31
  28. 28. Results of WPI Area Weighted WPI(kg/m3) Region/Crops Rice Corn Wheat Soybean Basinwide average 0.50 0.97 1.39 0.26 standard deviation 0.25 0.32 0.51 0.13 Mid-stream 0.49 0.94 1.16 0.26 standard deviation 0.22 0.33 0.49 0.13 Downstream 0.51 0.99 1.57 0.27 standard deviation 0.26 0.30 0.34 0.12 32
  29. 29. Results of WPR 33
  30. 30. Results of WPR Area Weighted WPR(kg/m3) Region/Crops Rice Corn Wheat Soybean Basinwide average - 1.09 - 0.41 standard deviation - 0.36 - 0.16 Middle stream - 0.68 - 0.28 standard deviation - 0.35 - 0.15 Downstream - 1.41 - 0.52 standard deviation - 0.33 - 0.12 34
  31. 31. WP3 Irrigated yield is significantly higher than the rainfed yield for corn, and soybean in different regions of the YRB ; however for soybean in downstream, rainfed yield is even higher than irrigated yield WPI is slightly lower than WPR for corn and soybean, which implies the irrigated crops may not be as efficient as rainfed crops with regard to water productivity for particular crops in the YRB. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE 35
  32. 32. WP3 WPI and WPR vary spatially from upstream to downstream with both climate and water supply condition. The water factor is particularly sensitive to spatial scale, which reflects the impact of water regulation over space in the YRB through engineering measures The water factor has stronger effect on both crop yield and WP than the energy factor INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE 36
  33. 33. WP3 Irrigation stabilizes the crop production per unit of water consumption. Croplands have higher water consumption than urban lands but lower than forest lands Among the sub-basins, the midstream region has more important agricultural water management issues from the perspective of both crop yield and WP INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE 37
  34. 34. WP4
  35. 35. Basics--WATER State Water Council is final authority for water allocation 2002 Water Law, but few implementing regulations -- Focus on river basin management, water conservation, environmental flows , among others YRCC mandate for water allocation in lower part of the basin, role only for mainstream, not tributaries Distorted incentives at irrigation district level INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  36. 36. 1987 Water Allocation Agreement (37BCM) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 G n Sh i rM a in Si ai i/T g Sh g He i He and n Ni u nx x ne x i be on ua Sh na s on gh an nj an In ng aa ia ch in Q INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  37. 37. Basics--FOOD Government is pushing agriculture to its limits: striving for continued food self-sufficiency despite extremely scarce resources through large and growing investments in R&D direct income transfers to farmers and subsidies INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  38. 38. What limits higher productivity/WUE? Proximity to profitable non-farm income reduces productivity even in the highly favorable Southeast of China Vested interests, and lack of integrated agriculture and water resource policies are a further blow to higher productivity INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  39. 39. WP4 Measures to increase water productivity and deal with water shortages Reforming irrigation management institutions Reforming water pricing Implementing water rights transfer projects Adopting water saving technology Adopting agricultural technology to increase productivity INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  40. 40. Water Pricing Reform In the past 15 years, water price in most ID has increased; Can water price be further increased? - ID managers do not like increase - There are potential negative impacts on farm income and agricultural production - Difficulty in collecting water fee If water price does not change, farmers have no incentive to increase water use efficiency What kind of policies are needed for efficient pricing policy? INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  41. 41. Water Use and Incentives Unit: m3/ha 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Wheat Maize Rice With incentive Without incentive
  42. 42. Water Productivity and Incentives Unit: m3/ha 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Wheat Maize Rice With incentive Without incentive
  43. 43. Crop Yield and Incentives Unit: kg/ha 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Wheat Maize Rice With incentive Without incentive
  44. 44. Water Allocation among Regions Upstream regions use more water than the water quota allocated by YRCC; Salinity issues related with water use volume Downstream regions use less water than the water quota allocated by YRCC: Most are considering to build reservoirs to store unused water If the present allocation is not rational is it possible to change the allocation? INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  45. 45. WATER VERSUS AG POLICY –Zero- sum game? AGRICULTURE POLICY HURTING WATER: fertilizer subsidies adversely impact water quality removal of agricultural land tax increased difficulty to collect water service fee WATER POLICY HURTING AGRICULTURE New policy to flush silt out of the lower basin highly effective, but irrigation intakes now too high up in the river bed for water access Policy to increase ISF to conserve water resources hurts ID manager who depend on large irrigation volumes for their income INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  46. 46. Poverty headcount varies widely across provinces in the YRB INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 51
  47. 47. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 52
  48. 48. Wheat yields are higher for the non-poor than that for the poor living in irrigated and non-irrigated villages INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 53
  49. 49. To what extent does access to water reduce poverty? Results of our multivariate analysis suggest that, the probability of a household being poor declines by 10.7 percentage points if the household lives in an irrigated village in the YRB region (probit regression model controlling for household size, ownership of assets, rainfall, and distance to facilities) Non-farm income is key to pov reduction INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 54
  50. 50. Poverty Incidence Unit: % 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 China China Ningxia Henan ID (NX- ID (HN- (1996) (2001) (1996 ) (1996) 2001) 2001) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  51. 51. Poverty Distribution along canals in the YRB (2001) Reach of IDs Poverty incidence (%) Ningxia Weining ID Upper 5.6 Lower 6.3 Qingtongxia ID Upper 3.2 Lower 9.4 Henan Renminsh. ID Upper 16.0 Lower 4.9 Liuyuankou ID Upper 0 Lower 9.5
  52. 52. HH Characteristics by Income Class Ningxia/Henan (2001) Per Share of income (%) Share Income capita of non- group income Livesto Non- agri. Crop (yuan) ck agri labor <625 381 80 7 12 3 (Poor1) 625~878 715 73 7 21 21 (Poor 2) 878~2500 1775 58 10 33 33 2500~4000 3083 49 11 40 42 >4000 6209 35 12 54 48
  53. 53. HH Characteristics by Income Class (2001) Cultivate Number Labor Cultivated Income HH d of educatio land/perso group size land/hh labors/hh n (year) n (ha) (ha) <625 (Poor1) 4.3 2.9 5.4 0.7 0.18 625~878 4.9 3.0 7.0 0.7 0.09 (Poor 2) 878~2500 4.3 3.0 6.4 0.6 0.15 2500~4000 3.9 2.9 6.0 0.7 0.18 >4000 3.4 3.0 6.3 0.7 0.22
  54. 54. Basin Diagnostic Tour Water scarcity considered the largest problem for irrigation Water fees and water quality are also important Increased competition with urban- industrial and environmental water uses Zero tillage as one strategy to save water and labor, adoption for maize and wheat INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  55. 55. Basin Diagnostic Tour Most farmers are part-time [small land area, many non-farm employment opportunities] Climate change potential future threat – experience of more extreme cold events during winter and reduced runoff despite stable rainfall Relatively low poverty in Henan and Shandong provinces [downstream basin] INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  56. 56. Pathway out of Poverty Ningxia Shaanxi Henan Non-farm employment 1 1 1 Agricultural profits 2 2 2 - Irrigation availability (1) (1) (1) - Marketing (output) (2) (2) (2) - Output/input price ratio (3) (3) (3) Education 3 3 3 Transportation 4 4 4
  57. 57. Who Uses Water more Efficiently and Effectively? Unit: m3/ha 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Ningxia Shaanxi Henan
  58. 58. Water Allocation Priority Ningxia Shaanxi Henan Domestic 1 1 1 Industry 3 2 2 Agriculture 2 3 3 Environment 4 4 4
  59. 59. Review paper on past and current interventions From water supply to water demand management From resettlement (started anew in areas with extreme water shortages) ..To water use rights trading (not exactly..) From agricultural land tax to direct transfers for farmers And a variety of water-conservation and expansion technologies (plastic sheets, water harvesting, zero till, SRI, etc. etc.) The government is willing to try anything that works and does not interfere with too many vested interests INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  60. 60. Environmental Poverty Food Low cost Reach impact impact security HIGH-IMPACT INTERVENTIONS Water pollution control Yield improvement, including for HIGH-IMPACT INTERVENTIONS drought stress Water management ---in particular Water rights and markets /? ----ID management /? support ----Water pricing /? Water monitoring system Resettlement Off-farm opportunity development ? South-to-North transfer ? Irrigation infrastructure investment /? (Canals, etc.) On-farm irrigation technology /? investment Virtual water Education/Family planning
  61. 61. Environmental Poverty Food Low cost Reach HIGH-IMPACT INTERVENTIONS impact impact security Water pollution control Yield improvement, including for drought stress Water management ---in particular Water rights and markets /? ----ID management /? support ----Water pricing /? Water monitoring system Resettlement Off-farm opportunity development ? South-to-North transfer ? Irrigation infrastructure investment /? (Canals, etc.) On-farm irrigation technology /? investment Virtual water Education/Family planning
  62. 62. Study of Alternative Interventions Modeling tools (YRCC HYDROLOGIC MODEL, SWAT, MAS) Study other strategies qualitatively And others combining the basin model with IMPACT or CAPSIM INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  63. 63. Multi-Agent System Model A2 A2 52 general agents 0 1 5 reservoir agents A1 A2 A2 A6 9 4 2 3 ecosystem agents A1 A7 8 A2 R3 A8 A2 5 A1 A1 6 A9 5 7 A4 A4 4 9 A1 A2 A1 3 4 R1 A1 R2 A1 6 A2 A2 A4 A5 E2 9 A2 R5 2 3 7 5 1 A3 8 A5 A1 A3 1 1 4 A4 A4 A4 E1 A5 E3 A3 A4 R4 2 3 8 2 A1 A3 0 0 A4 A3 2 A4 A1 5 A3 A4 7 0 A3 9 1 A5 A2 A3 3 A3 0 A3 6 8 A4 6 A3 7 Mainstream inflow source Ai General agents Tributary inflow source Ai General agents with source flow Mainstream Ri Reservoir agents Tributary 69 Ei Ecosystem agents
  64. 64. Apply MAS framework to YRB Yellow River Basin MAS-Modeling Unmanaged YRCC YRCC Water Scenario Water Right Water Market Permit INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE 70
  65. 65. Conclusions Highly water scarce basin, but still room for water conservation in irrigation and elsewhere Key for water conservation will be enhanced policy and institutions, including for WQ Some scope for further yield improvement Limited scope for irrigation expansion, constant agricultural water use policy, policy to avoid further declines in agricultural area (122 million mu red line) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  66. 66. FINAL RESEARCH PAPERS 1. Relation between water and poverty in the Yellow River Basin (Akhter, Jinxia, and Wahid) 2. Impact of climate change on water and food supply in the Yellow River Basin (Zongxue, Tingju) • First journal article in print in Chinese Journal • Contribution to 2nd Forum and to 5th Yellow River Forum 3. Role of water trading for alleviating water stress in the Yellow River Basin (Yunpeng, Claudia, and Yan) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  67. 67. FINAL RESEARCH PAPERS 4. Water productivity under water scarcity in the Yellow River Basin (Ximing, Yi- Chen, Jianshi) 5. Drought risk management in the Yellow River Basin (Tingju) 6. Water supply and demand and implications for poverty alleviation in the YRB (Zongxue, Jingzong, and Tingju) 7. High-impact interventions for the YRB (Yunpeng, Claudia, Jinxia) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  68. 68. FINAL RESEARCH PAPERS 8. Application of Multi-Agent System (MAS) Modeling to the YRB (Ximing and others) 9. Drought risk management in the Yellow River Basin (Tingju) 10.The role of institutions in alleviating water poverty in the YRB (Jinxia and others) 11.Book chapter for Basin Focal Program Study INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
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