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Yellow River Basin: Living with Scarcity

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Presented at the Basin Focal Project workshop 'Clarifying the global picture of water, food and poverty' from 18-20th September in Chiang Mai, Thailand.

Presented at the Basin Focal Project workshop 'Clarifying the global picture of water, food and poverty' from 18-20th September in Chiang Mai, Thailand.

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  • 1. Yellow River Basin: Living with Scarcity Claudia Ringler and Ximing Cai et al. Chiang Mai Sep 18-20, 2009 College of Water Sciences, 1 BNU
  • 2. PROJECT OBJECTIVES Study water poverty, water availability and access, water productivity, and water and related institutions in the YRB to develop and rank a series of high- priority interventions aimed at increasing water and food security for the poor while maintaining environmental sustainability INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 3. BACKGROUND
  • 4. Basin Area: 795,000 km2 (incl inland basin of ~40,000 km2) Pop: 120-200 million (150-250/km2) River Length: 5,454 km Elevation Drop: 4,480 m GDP : US$88 billion Cultiv land: ~12 million ha, 6-8 m ha irrigated Ningxia Shaanxi Avg rainfall: 450-60 mm Avg runoff: 58->53.5 BCM GW: 11-14 BCM Total volume: 71.9 BCM Henan Per cap water: 590 m3 Sedim conc 35kg/m3
  • 5. Water Balance in the YRB KEY UPSTREAM BASINS U/s: 31 BCM, M/s: 20 BCM, D/s: 2 BCM Lanzhou upstream Area: 222,551; 30% Runoff: 313.1; 54% Unit: Area: km2 Runoff: ×108m3 Wei River Area: 134,766; 18% Runoff: 100.4; 17% College of Water Sciences, BNU
  • 6. Land cover map, YRB INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 7. Yellow River Basin population density
  • 8. WP2
  • 9. Water Balance in the YRB Precipitation: 466 mm/a = 370 BCM/a Potential Evap: 800-1000 mm/a in South 1800-2000 mm/a in North Runoff: ~58 BCM/a (53.5 BCM/a in the updated YRCC assessment)
  • 10. Kuye River Lanzhou upstream Wuding River Runoff:10.34; Runoff: 364; Runof:14.1; Per.: 1.5% Per.: 55.6% Per.: 2.2% Sanchuan River Runoff:6.63; Per.: 1% : Unit: × Runoff:×108 m3 Wei River Yiluo River Qin River Runoff:120.7; Runoff:33.1; Runoff:19.1; Per.: 18.4% Per.: 5.% Per.: 2.9% WP 2: Analysis of water availability and access SWAT-BNU - Runoff percentage: 86.6%
  • 11. Water Scarcity in the Yellow River Basin: Physical Scarcity Share of country total (%) 100% 80% 60% 40% 25% 17% 20% 2% 0% Annual runoff Per capita water Water availability for availability cultivated land
  • 12. Key off-stream water uses (1998-2000) Domestic 7% Industry 12% Agricult 81% plus estimated 20 BCM needed for sediment flushing INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 13. YELLOW RIVER WATER USE BY SECTOR Years Reach Total Agricultural Industrial Domestic 1988-1992a Upper 13.11 12.38 0.51 0.22 Middle 5.44 4.77 0.38 0.28 Lower 12.18 11.24 0.55 0.38 Basin 30.72 28.39 1.45 0.89 2002- Upper 17.54 15.71 1.42 0.41 2004b Middle 5.71 4.16 0.97 0.58 Lower 8.44 7.04 0.82 0.58 Basin 31.69 26.91 3.21 1.57 Difference Upper 34% 27% 179% 84% Middle 5% -13% 155% 108% Lower -31% -37% 49% 54% Basin 3% -5% 121% 77% a Data from Chen (2002). b YRCC Water Resources Bulletins of 2002-2004.
  • 14. Increasing Water Competition in China (Similar trend in the YRB) 1 1 100% 2 11 13 80% 22 60% Domestic 97 Industry 88 40% Agriculture 65 20% 0% 1949 1978 2004 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 15. Main Irrigated Areas in the YRB INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 16. Slowdown in irrigated area expansion 7.5 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 17. Key crops (18 m ha) Other cereals Rice 15% 2% Tubers Wheat 10% 44% Soybean 6% Maize 23% INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 18. Days without discharge at the downstream flow station Unit: days 250 200 150 100 50 0 72 75 78 80 82 87 89 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 Flow restoration benefit: US$2.5 billion (ind/dom/ag/env)
  • 19. Agricultural Water Consumption 100 million cubic meters 350 286,1 299,6 292,5 300 249,8 250 200 177,7 150 122,3 100 50 0 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2006
  • 20. Water quality About 5 BCM of wastewater Rapid decline in water quality—at an unknown cost to the basin WQ above level III dropped from 80% in the 1980s to 60% in the 1990s and less than 20% by 2002 since then some progress with WQ improvement Wetlands shrank by 50% over the last 20 years (CP 2nd call project on topic) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 21. Climate change analysis (SWAT) 200 Lanzhou 50 Wei 年平均降水距平百分率 40 150 P recipitatio n(m m ) 30 5年滑动平均降水距平百分率 100 20 50 10 0 0 -50 -10 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 -20 -100 -30 -150 -40 0 5 0 1975 0 5 1990 5 0 196 196 197 198 198 199 200 -50 年 (b) 10.0 2.0 1.5 9.5 Temperature(℃) 1.0 9.0 0.5 8.5 0.0 8.0 -0.5 7.5 -1.0 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 7.0 196 196 197 197 198 198 199 199 200 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE 8 2 6 0 4 8 2 6 0 4 (b) 1 95 1 96 1 96 1 97 1 97 1 97 1 98 1 98 1 99 1 99
  • 22. Climate change analysis Lanzhou 2000 兰州 1600 Baseline Overall lower runoff 2020s despite additional 月流量(m /s) 1200 2050s 3 2080s precipitation under 800 Had SRES B2 400 0 Wei Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 250.0 (d) Q(m3 /s) Lanzhou 200.0 Observed Simulated 2010s 2020s 150.0 2030s 2050s 100.0 50.0 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE 0.0 1 3 5 7 9 11 Month
  • 23. WP3
  • 24. Results of irrigated and rainfed area Crops Basin-wide Middle stream Downstream Rice 25.2 13.0 12.3 AI Corn 540.2 254.3 284.9 (1000 ha) Wheat 1141.0 536.4 597.7 Soybean 149.6 80.6 69.0 Rice 0.0 0.0 0.0 AR Corn 68.8 30.3 37.9 (1000 ha) Wheat 0.0 0.0 0.0 Soybean 30.1 14.3 15.8 28
  • 25. Irrigation requirement 29
  • 26. Results of irrigated and rainfed yield Crops Basin-wide Mid-stream Downstream Rice 5.4 5.5 5.3 YI Corn 5.3 5.0 5.7 (ton/ha) Wheat 3.7 2.8 4.4 Soybean 1.4 1.2 1.7 Rice 0.0 0.0 0.0 YR Corn 3.0 1.9 4.0 (ton/ha) Wheat 0.0 0.0 0.0 Soybean 1.4 1.0 1.9 30
  • 27. Results of WPI 31
  • 28. Results of WPI Area Weighted WPI(kg/m3) Region/Crops Rice Corn Wheat Soybean Basinwide average 0.50 0.97 1.39 0.26 standard deviation 0.25 0.32 0.51 0.13 Mid-stream 0.49 0.94 1.16 0.26 standard deviation 0.22 0.33 0.49 0.13 Downstream 0.51 0.99 1.57 0.27 standard deviation 0.26 0.30 0.34 0.12 32
  • 29. Results of WPR 33
  • 30. Results of WPR Area Weighted WPR(kg/m3) Region/Crops Rice Corn Wheat Soybean Basinwide average - 1.09 - 0.41 standard deviation - 0.36 - 0.16 Middle stream - 0.68 - 0.28 standard deviation - 0.35 - 0.15 Downstream - 1.41 - 0.52 standard deviation - 0.33 - 0.12 34
  • 31. WP3 Irrigated yield is significantly higher than the rainfed yield for corn, and soybean in different regions of the YRB ; however for soybean in downstream, rainfed yield is even higher than irrigated yield WPI is slightly lower than WPR for corn and soybean, which implies the irrigated crops may not be as efficient as rainfed crops with regard to water productivity for particular crops in the YRB. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE 35
  • 32. WP3 WPI and WPR vary spatially from upstream to downstream with both climate and water supply condition. The water factor is particularly sensitive to spatial scale, which reflects the impact of water regulation over space in the YRB through engineering measures The water factor has stronger effect on both crop yield and WP than the energy factor INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE 36
  • 33. WP3 Irrigation stabilizes the crop production per unit of water consumption. Croplands have higher water consumption than urban lands but lower than forest lands Among the sub-basins, the midstream region has more important agricultural water management issues from the perspective of both crop yield and WP INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE 37
  • 34. WP4
  • 35. Basics--WATER State Water Council is final authority for water allocation 2002 Water Law, but few implementing regulations -- Focus on river basin management, water conservation, environmental flows , among others YRCC mandate for water allocation in lower part of the basin, role only for mainstream, not tributaries Distorted incentives at irrigation district level INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 36. 1987 Water Allocation Agreement (37BCM) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 G n Sh i rM a in Si ai i/T g Sh g He i He and n Ni u nx x ne x i be on ua Sh na s on gh an nj an In ng aa ia ch in Q INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 37. Basics--FOOD Government is pushing agriculture to its limits: striving for continued food self-sufficiency despite extremely scarce resources through large and growing investments in R&D direct income transfers to farmers and subsidies INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 38. What limits higher productivity/WUE? Proximity to profitable non-farm income reduces productivity even in the highly favorable Southeast of China Vested interests, and lack of integrated agriculture and water resource policies are a further blow to higher productivity INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 39. WP4 Measures to increase water productivity and deal with water shortages Reforming irrigation management institutions Reforming water pricing Implementing water rights transfer projects Adopting water saving technology Adopting agricultural technology to increase productivity INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 40. Water Pricing Reform In the past 15 years, water price in most ID has increased; Can water price be further increased? - ID managers do not like increase - There are potential negative impacts on farm income and agricultural production - Difficulty in collecting water fee If water price does not change, farmers have no incentive to increase water use efficiency What kind of policies are needed for efficient pricing policy? INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 41. Water Use and Incentives Unit: m3/ha 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Wheat Maize Rice With incentive Without incentive
  • 42. Water Productivity and Incentives Unit: m3/ha 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Wheat Maize Rice With incentive Without incentive
  • 43. Crop Yield and Incentives Unit: kg/ha 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Wheat Maize Rice With incentive Without incentive
  • 44. Water Allocation among Regions Upstream regions use more water than the water quota allocated by YRCC; Salinity issues related with water use volume Downstream regions use less water than the water quota allocated by YRCC: Most are considering to build reservoirs to store unused water If the present allocation is not rational is it possible to change the allocation? INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 45. WATER VERSUS AG POLICY –Zero- sum game? AGRICULTURE POLICY HURTING WATER: fertilizer subsidies adversely impact water quality removal of agricultural land tax increased difficulty to collect water service fee WATER POLICY HURTING AGRICULTURE New policy to flush silt out of the lower basin highly effective, but irrigation intakes now too high up in the river bed for water access Policy to increase ISF to conserve water resources hurts ID manager who depend on large irrigation volumes for their income INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 46. Poverty headcount varies widely across provinces in the YRB INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 51
  • 47. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 52
  • 48. Wheat yields are higher for the non-poor than that for the poor living in irrigated and non-irrigated villages INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 53
  • 49. To what extent does access to water reduce poverty? Results of our multivariate analysis suggest that, the probability of a household being poor declines by 10.7 percentage points if the household lives in an irrigated village in the YRB region (probit regression model controlling for household size, ownership of assets, rainfall, and distance to facilities) Non-farm income is key to pov reduction INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 54
  • 50. Poverty Incidence Unit: % 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 China China Ningxia Henan ID (NX- ID (HN- (1996) (2001) (1996 ) (1996) 2001) 2001) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 51. Poverty Distribution along canals in the YRB (2001) Reach of IDs Poverty incidence (%) Ningxia Weining ID Upper 5.6 Lower 6.3 Qingtongxia ID Upper 3.2 Lower 9.4 Henan Renminsh. ID Upper 16.0 Lower 4.9 Liuyuankou ID Upper 0 Lower 9.5
  • 52. HH Characteristics by Income Class Ningxia/Henan (2001) Per Share of income (%) Share Income capita of non- group income Livesto Non- agri. Crop (yuan) ck agri labor <625 381 80 7 12 3 (Poor1) 625~878 715 73 7 21 21 (Poor 2) 878~2500 1775 58 10 33 33 2500~4000 3083 49 11 40 42 >4000 6209 35 12 54 48
  • 53. HH Characteristics by Income Class (2001) Cultivate Number Labor Cultivated Income HH d of educatio land/perso group size land/hh labors/hh n (year) n (ha) (ha) <625 (Poor1) 4.3 2.9 5.4 0.7 0.18 625~878 4.9 3.0 7.0 0.7 0.09 (Poor 2) 878~2500 4.3 3.0 6.4 0.6 0.15 2500~4000 3.9 2.9 6.0 0.7 0.18 >4000 3.4 3.0 6.3 0.7 0.22
  • 54. Basin Diagnostic Tour Water scarcity considered the largest problem for irrigation Water fees and water quality are also important Increased competition with urban- industrial and environmental water uses Zero tillage as one strategy to save water and labor, adoption for maize and wheat INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 55. Basin Diagnostic Tour Most farmers are part-time [small land area, many non-farm employment opportunities] Climate change potential future threat – experience of more extreme cold events during winter and reduced runoff despite stable rainfall Relatively low poverty in Henan and Shandong provinces [downstream basin] INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 56. Pathway out of Poverty Ningxia Shaanxi Henan Non-farm employment 1 1 1 Agricultural profits 2 2 2 - Irrigation availability (1) (1) (1) - Marketing (output) (2) (2) (2) - Output/input price ratio (3) (3) (3) Education 3 3 3 Transportation 4 4 4
  • 57. Who Uses Water more Efficiently and Effectively? Unit: m3/ha 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Ningxia Shaanxi Henan
  • 58. Water Allocation Priority Ningxia Shaanxi Henan Domestic 1 1 1 Industry 3 2 2 Agriculture 2 3 3 Environment 4 4 4
  • 59. Review paper on past and current interventions From water supply to water demand management From resettlement (started anew in areas with extreme water shortages) ..To water use rights trading (not exactly..) From agricultural land tax to direct transfers for farmers And a variety of water-conservation and expansion technologies (plastic sheets, water harvesting, zero till, SRI, etc. etc.) The government is willing to try anything that works and does not interfere with too many vested interests INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 60. Environmental Poverty Food Low cost Reach impact impact security HIGH-IMPACT INTERVENTIONS Water pollution control Yield improvement, including for HIGH-IMPACT INTERVENTIONS drought stress Water management ---in particular Water rights and markets /? ----ID management /? support ----Water pricing /? Water monitoring system Resettlement Off-farm opportunity development ? South-to-North transfer ? Irrigation infrastructure investment /? (Canals, etc.) On-farm irrigation technology /? investment Virtual water Education/Family planning
  • 61. Environmental Poverty Food Low cost Reach HIGH-IMPACT INTERVENTIONS impact impact security Water pollution control Yield improvement, including for drought stress Water management ---in particular Water rights and markets /? ----ID management /? support ----Water pricing /? Water monitoring system Resettlement Off-farm opportunity development ? South-to-North transfer ? Irrigation infrastructure investment /? (Canals, etc.) On-farm irrigation technology /? investment Virtual water Education/Family planning
  • 62. Study of Alternative Interventions Modeling tools (YRCC HYDROLOGIC MODEL, SWAT, MAS) Study other strategies qualitatively And others combining the basin model with IMPACT or CAPSIM INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 63. Multi-Agent System Model A2 A2 52 general agents 0 1 5 reservoir agents A1 A2 A2 A6 9 4 2 3 ecosystem agents A1 A7 8 A2 R3 A8 A2 5 A1 A1 6 A9 5 7 A4 A4 4 9 A1 A2 A1 3 4 R1 A1 R2 A1 6 A2 A2 A4 A5 E2 9 A2 R5 2 3 7 5 1 A3 8 A5 A1 A3 1 1 4 A4 A4 A4 E1 A5 E3 A3 A4 R4 2 3 8 2 A1 A3 0 0 A4 A3 2 A4 A1 5 A3 A4 7 0 A3 9 1 A5 A2 A3 3 A3 0 A3 6 8 A4 6 A3 7 Mainstream inflow source Ai General agents Tributary inflow source Ai General agents with source flow Mainstream Ri Reservoir agents Tributary 69 Ei Ecosystem agents
  • 64. Apply MAS framework to YRB Yellow River Basin MAS-Modeling Unmanaged YRCC YRCC Water Scenario Water Right Water Market Permit INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE 70
  • 65. Conclusions Highly water scarce basin, but still room for water conservation in irrigation and elsewhere Key for water conservation will be enhanced policy and institutions, including for WQ Some scope for further yield improvement Limited scope for irrigation expansion, constant agricultural water use policy, policy to avoid further declines in agricultural area (122 million mu red line) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 66. FINAL RESEARCH PAPERS 1. Relation between water and poverty in the Yellow River Basin (Akhter, Jinxia, and Wahid) 2. Impact of climate change on water and food supply in the Yellow River Basin (Zongxue, Tingju) • First journal article in print in Chinese Journal • Contribution to 2nd Forum and to 5th Yellow River Forum 3. Role of water trading for alleviating water stress in the Yellow River Basin (Yunpeng, Claudia, and Yan) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 67. FINAL RESEARCH PAPERS 4. Water productivity under water scarcity in the Yellow River Basin (Ximing, Yi- Chen, Jianshi) 5. Drought risk management in the Yellow River Basin (Tingju) 6. Water supply and demand and implications for poverty alleviation in the YRB (Zongxue, Jingzong, and Tingju) 7. High-impact interventions for the YRB (Yunpeng, Claudia, Jinxia) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 68. FINAL RESEARCH PAPERS 8. Application of Multi-Agent System (MAS) Modeling to the YRB (Ximing and others) 9. Drought risk management in the Yellow River Basin (Tingju) 10.The role of institutions in alleviating water poverty in the YRB (Jinxia and others) 11.Book chapter for Basin Focal Program Study INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

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