AQUA 2009
Integrated Water Resource
Management and Climate
Change
Cali, November 9, 2009
Water and Climate Change
Bridging Gaps
Henk van Schaik

CPWC
Started 2001 after Third Assessment Report of IPCC
2001 – 2005: Building awareness on climate variability and change
– International events: WWF, WWW, IWA
– Documentation: books and films
– Local dialogues
Since 2005: Towards operational responses
– International events: WWF, WWW, COP, IWA, WASH, Mediterranean
– Information and expertise: Expert Pools and clearing houses WCC, Nairobi Work
Programme. DFID, EC,
– Network building of practitioners: Connecting Delta Cities
– Adaptation programmes: Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Bangladesh

Coping with climate change:
top priority
Climate change is one of the most fundamental
challenges ever to confront humanity. No issue is more
fundamental to long-term global prosperity. And no issue
is more essential to our survival as a species
Summit on Climate Change for Heads of States and Governments,
New York, 22 September, 2009
IPCC 2007: By 2020 50 % yield loss in rain fed agric; by 2050 200 million
people displaced because of climate; snow melt affecting one billion
people.
Climate change became a top priority in less than 10 years

C(H)openhagen???
Commitments to mitigation ……how much and by
whom? % of reduction and finance
Adaptation: vulnerability of LDCs
Finance: polluter pays or from ODA budgets
Europe agreed on 20 billion/annum from 2020 and 5-7
billion for developing countries on voluntary basis
immediately for mitigation and adaptation

COP-15 and Adaptation policies …
COP-15:
NAPAs regularly to be updated
Vulnerable areas including:
– Least Developed Countries
– Small island Developing States
– Countries in Africa affected by drought, desertification and floods
Capacity building: Nairobi Work Programme
Adaptation Fund: 70 % for LDCs, SIDS and countries in
Africa, and 30 % for Disasters
Water as medium, water as sector….

Water is the medium……..

WE NEED MORE THAN JUST
LOOKING AT THE PROBLEM
RES8552

Facts and Forecasts
Climate Change and Water:
The IPCC Technical Report
June 2008
reviewed scientific articles till end 2005

What is the IPCC?
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Scientific intergovernmental body set up by WMO and UNEP
- governments are members of IPCC
- scientists contribute to IPCC assessments
IPCC does not conduct research: it’s role is to
assess research
IPCC reports are policy-relevant, but policy-
neutral

Emission scenarios
Globalisation
Economic Golden Age Sustainable development
A1 Balanced
A1 Fossil
A1 Technology
B1
Emphasis on material wealth Emphasis on sustainability
and equity
A2 B2 Regional solutions
Cultural diversity
Regionalisation

Future projections of climate change
Best estimate of low
emission scenario (B1)
is 1.8 ºC (range 1.1-2.9)
Best estimate of high
emission scenario A1F1
is 4.0 ºC (range 2.4-6.4)
Hardly any
differences between
scenarios for the
near future
IPCC 2007

Climate change effects on water
resources
Growth in population, energy demand, changes in technological
and land-sue/cover
Energy-economy models
Greenhouse gases emissions
Carbon cycle and other chemical
models
Atmospheric GHGs concentrations
Climate models
Future climate projections
Hydrological + hydraulic models
Future hydrological projections

Precipitation will probably
– Increase in the high latitudes
– Decrease in most sub-tropical regions

Change in average runoff
A1b emissions scenario, multi-model ensemble mean,
change by 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999. White
areas denote regions with little agreement

Water Stress Changes
to 2025
• 80% of future stress from
population
& development,
• Climate change additional!
UNH Vörösmarty et al. 2000

IPCC Technical Paper on Water
Figure 5.8: Trends in annual rainfall in (a) South America (1960–2000). An increase is shown by a plus sign, a decrease
by a circle; bold values indicate significance at P ≤ 0.05 (reproduced from Haylock et al. (2006) with permission from
the American Meteorological Society). (b) Central America and northern South America (1961–2003). Large red triangles
indicate positive significant trends, small red triangles indicate positive non-significant trends, large blue triangles indicate
negative significant trends, and small blue triangles indicate negative non-significant trends (reproduced from Aguilar et al.
(2005) with permission from the American Geophysical Union. [WGII Figure 13.1]

Areal extent of Chacaltaya Glacier, Bolivia, from 1940 to 2005. By 2005, the glacier had separated into
three distinct small bodies. The position of the ski hut, which did not exist in 1940, is indicated with a
red cross. The ski lift had a length of about 800 m in 1940 and about 600 m in 1996 (shown by a
continuous line in 1940 and a broken line in all other panels) and was normally installed during the
precipitation season. After 2004, skiing was no longer possible.
Photo credits: Francou and Vincent (2006) and Jordan (1991). [WGII Figure 1.1]

Current trends in precipitation (WGII Table 13.2)
Change shown in % unless otherwise indicated
Period Percentage
Amazonia – northern/southern (Marengo, 2004) 1949-1999 -11 to – 17/-23 to +18
1949–1999 -11 to -17 / -23 to
Bolivian Amazonia (Ronchail et al., 2005) Since 1970 +15
Argentina – central and north-east (Penalba and 1900–2000 +1 SD to +2 SD
Vargas, 2004)
Uruguay (Bidegain et al., 2005) 1961-2002 +20
Chile – central (Camilloni, 2005) last 50 years -50
Colombia (Pabón, 2003) 1961–1990 -4 to +6

Table 5.6: Increase in the numbers of people living in
waterstressed watersheds in Latin America (million) based on the
HadCM3 GCM (Arnell, 2004). [WGII Table 13.6]
1995 2025 2055
Scenario Without With Without With
and GCM
A1 22,2 35,7 21,0 54,0 60
A2 22,2 55,9 37-66 149,3 60 - 100
B1 22,2 35,7 22 54,0 74
B2 22,2 47,3 7-77 59,4 62

Conclusions IPCC …
Climate change is unequivocal; it is another driver of
change such as population growth and economic
development.
IPCC also identifies knowledge gaps:
paucity of information particularly hydrological information
understanding of links between global climate models and local
hydrological models
Knowledge on groundwater resources

Camarón que se duerme, se lo lleva la changada

A New Planning Uncertainty

Joint Egyptian-Dutch Water Conference
Towards the new Long Term Strategy for Water in the Mediterranean
Cairo, Egypt 2 and 3 November 2009
Organised by Egypt, Netherlands, CPWC, APP and GWP-Med
Cairo Message to COP-15
Coping with climate change is managing water for life
A strong and fair agreement in Copenhagen at the
fifteenth Conference of Parties (COP-15) of the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) on measures to mitigate and adapt to climate
change is crucial for water resources, water services and
for life.
25

Issues
Climate and Water
– Development, Water and Climate
– Beyond the water box
– Governance
– Information
– Adaptive Management
– Finance
See Stockholm message

Climate change in the context of
water and development …

Population projection Nile
countries
Projected population (million)
180 Egypt
160 Ethiopia
140 Eritrea
120 Sudan
100 Uganda
80 Congo
60 Kenya
40 Tanzania
20 Burundi
0 Rwanda
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

World Cities exceeding 5 million residents
1950
2015
Analysis by Munich Re
Data:
U.N. Population Division

Meeting growing global water demands
6000
Agriculture
5000 Indus try
ater Use in km^3 per year
Hous eholds
Res ervoires
4000 Total
3000
2000
W
1000
0
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Worldwide Water Use by Region
3500
Europe
3000 North America
Africa
Asia
2500
South America
Australia& Pacific
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
31

Historic losses from weather
disasters 1950-2005
Direct economic losses [mld. US$]
200 economic losses
(in values of 2006)
180
insured losses
(in values of 2006)
160
trend economic losses
140
trend insured losses
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
© 2007 NatCatSERVICE, Geo Risks Research, Munich Re
32

…and realities
Developing countries and countries in transition:
– MDGs and poverty alleviation are the priority
– Barely able to cope with present climate variability;
– Improving operations (leakages, payments, water efficiency) a step towards coping with CC
– Need for more storage (No Regret measures)
Climate specific measures in hot spots
– Climate information and hydrological information scarce
– Limited professional/sectoral capacity
– Need for technology transfer
– Need for better planning (bankable)
– Needs additional funding and external support

local, country and regional adaptation
categories
1. Best practises and no regret in
– Irrigation
– Drinking water
– Water for energy
2. Climate specific measures in “ hot spots” including”
– Arid areas
– Low lying coastal delta’s
– Mountainous areas affected by glacier melt
– Small islands

Elements for developing an
adaptation strategy .
Policy, legal and institutional framework h1
Understand the vulnerability
Information needs
Impact assessment
Evaluate
Vulnerability assessment
Development of measures
Financial arrangements
Convention of the Protection and Use of
Transboundary Watercourses and
International Lakes

Diapositiva 35
h1 hvanschaik, 06/04/2009

Netherlands: Climate proofing concept in water….
“The climate is changing and we should make
our country climate proof. The national
government together with science, policy and
other stakeholders”
Jan-Peter Balkenende - Dutch
Prime Minister, november 2005”
Science - Policy
interaction

Assignment
Advice on protecting the coast and
the entire low lying part of the
Netherlands against the
consequences of climate change
on a time scale of 2100 –2200
Wider scope than only safety,
multifunctional approach

Committee on Sustainable Coastal
Development
Advice on protecting the
coast and the entire low
lying part of the
Netherlands against the
consequences of climate
change on a time scale of
2100 –2200
Wider scope than only
safety, multifunctional
approach
38

Opening the
“water box”
Decision-making affecting water
(Figure 1.1)

Global Earth Observation System of Systems
(GEOSS)

Lack of information and data
at a time when we need it more than ever to
deal with increasing complexity
Distribution of Global Runoff Data Centre streamflow gauges (Figure 13.1)

World Climate Conference
31 August – 4 September 2009, Geneva
Decides to establish a Global Framework for Climate
Services to strengthen production, availability, delivery
and application of science-based climate prediction and
services.
But no silver bullet on climate information…..

National adaptation strategies
Colombia:
– Andean highlands ecosystems
– Sea level rise 2-5 mm/year
– Vector born diseases e.g. Dengue
Peru:
– Local projects, no indication of specific issues
Brazil
– Agriculture
– Coastal

Sea level rise: “plausible high end
scenarios”
2100: + 0.55 - 1.20 m
(0.65 – 1.35 incl. soil
subs.)
Key importance of adaptive
management: adapataion
measures must be flexible,
no-regret (robust) and hand
in hand with monitoring &
ability to incorporate new
scientific insifghts

Concept of water security
Threshold Water security Threshold
Probability of
low extremes Probability of
high
extremes

An increase in mean and variance of run off imply
a nonlinear increase in the probability of extremes,
which requires to adjust design criteria
Threshold ± 1 SD Threshold
Probability of Probability of
low extremes high extremes
Mean T0 New Mean
LJM,2002

Precise and exact information on impacts is not and will
never be made available. N o silver bullet.
Adaptation is about dealing with uncertainties and risks
Principles for adaptation measures for credible future:
– Robustness
– Flexibility
– Resilience

Adaptation measures:
Protection by a “ring of floodgates”
New perspectives for nature restoration, outside the dikes
Development of urban waterfronts
50

Costs
< 2050:
1,2 tot 1,6 billion euro /yr
2050 – 2100:
0,9 tot 1,5 billion euro /yr
Beach nourishment for coastal
land reclamation: 0.1 – 0.3
billion euro/yr
(GNP = 550 billion euro/yr)
51

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a global network for water professionals

Membrane Bio-Reactors
53

Climate change and
water management
Climate change is additional to other changes including population growth,
economic development, natural variability.
Ensure availability and make use of credible climate scenario relevant to
the specific hot spot need (coastal protection, agriculture, navigation,
hydropower, drinking water supply, ecosystems).
Political debate (beyond water) on risk management is essential at local
(urban), national, regional (transboundary) and global level.
Adaptive Management is top down structural and engineering measures in
combination with bottom up building with nature, stakeholder involvement

Prevent mitigate... .. and adapt!

www.waterandclimate.org
Thank You