Water agriculture and
poverty
…trying to unravel complexity
Simon Cook, Myles Fisher, Meike Andersson,
Jorge Rubiano, Mark Giordano and BFP teams

Linkages between water,
agriculture & poverty
1. Why care?
2. What linkages do we know about?
– Logical: what do we know from studies?
– Evidence: which seem the most influential?
3. How do these linkages work?
– Identifying interventions to reduce poverty
– Linking local, global and basin scales

1 Why do we need to know?…

Agriculture and water receive $bns
(as separate sectors)
Aid by sector, 2002 Aid for water supply and sanitation,
1973-2002

World food crisis
• Medium-term Impacts
– Demand outstripping supply
– Increasing food prices
– Decreasing food security for
poorest
– Increasing costs of inputs

World Water Crisis:
Declining per capita availability of water
‘000 m3
16
14 Africa
12
10
8 World
6 Asia
4
2
MENA
0
1960 1990 2025

Increasing demand by all users
Agriculture uses > 70% of water

In summary
• More people…more development…
• …need more food
(already takes > 70% of water)
• …need more water
• …other demands also increasing

Agriculture greatest user:
Demand increasing
Volta
Devaraj de Condappa

2 Drawing the links between
water, agriculture and poverty
Warning!
Complexity ahead

And how to go from Global …

…to Local?

• The general picture

We know
• That people use water in many ways
(Peden et al.
2007)

We know
• That agriculture occupies PART of a development trajectory
Agriculture contribution to growth (%)
World Bank, 2007

We know
• That the poorest tend to rely on agriculture
Agriculture vs GNI
50,000
Gross National Income ($/capita)
40,000
30,000
20,000 Size of bubble
proportional to rural
10,000 population
0
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50
-10,000
Agricultural contribution to GDP (% )
World Bank, 2007

We know
• That water availability is NOT the only, (or main) driver
Per capita income vs.
GNI vs Water
water availability
50,000
40,000
GNI ($/cap PPP)
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
-500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
-10,000
Size of bubble proportional to agricutlure contribution to GDP
3
Water availability (m /cap)
World Bank, 2007

• What does this mean in basins?
A few observations

São Francisco: Drought is one factor…of many
Drought
Poor
education
Access to
credit
Marcello Torres
et al., 2008

Karkheh: Farmers not the poorest
situation modified by politics
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
KB
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Un
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ki
Tr
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o
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Poverty lines from household Karkheh BFP team
income and expenditure data

Basic concept: Need Water productivity to
respond faster than demand
Demand
response line
WP
crisis
time

Actual Water-Productivity [the gain per m3 water
consumed] much lower than potential
Volta
IRD, 2007
Potential= 1-2 kg/m3

Mekong:
water productivity responding partially to demand
0.800
Laos
3
Water productivity, kg/m
0.600 Thailand
0.400 Cambodia
Vietnam
0.200
Vietnam Central
0.000 highlands
1990 1995 2000 2005 Vietnam Mekong
River Delta
Year
Mac Kirby, 2007

But.. Mekong
What people do can affect (shared) assets
Dam development
Changing land use,
shifting cultivation,
sustainability,
sedimentation
Seasonal water
shortage, poor soils,
low rice productivity
Fish &
environmental
impacts of Salinisation, water
upstream, quality, highly
competition land developed
Complex but understandable
Eric Kemp-Benedict, 2008

3 How do water and agriculture
combine to influence
livelihoods

3 Coupling water, agriculture and poverty
alleviation
Water
Improve collective
availability
outcome by
distribution
Increase collective gain Non-poor
“Benefit-sharing
of multiple uses”
Developing / protecting
NR assets
”Increasing
Improve
Water productivity”
outcome
from a given use
Water productivity
Poor

Global -to local links
GLOBAL
water and food systems considered separately
both impact on livelihoods
Basin scale
Systems interact through
(Unspecified) transfers
Local Scale
Local systems considered individually
Local impact not referenced to broader systems

Summary
• Water and food systems both impact on
poverty:
– Driven by development demand
– Water productivity measure of response/activity
• At local scale, linkages between water,
food & poverty are direct, non-crossing
• Cross-over between food and water
occurs at basin-scale.

Thank you

• Volta Scenarios under climate change
160
Comfortable
Lake Volta storage (km3)
140 Storage capacity (148 km3)
120 Vulnerable
100
Critical
80
60 Top of inactive (70 km3)
Wetter scenario
40 Reference scenario
20 Drier scenario
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
Year of simulation
De Condappa et al., 2008