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The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey
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The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF-an interesting journey

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Key note presentation at the 2nd International Forum on Water and Food, 10-14 November, 2008, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Key note presentation at the 2nd International Forum on Water and Food, 10-14 November, 2008, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

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  1. The Basin Focal Projects of the CPWF An interesting journey
  2. Journey plan (mainly retrospective) Journey starts First lap Second Third lap Global or lap How much do Where are we all local people gain going? Where’s the problem? from water? water? Who’s on the bus? Fourth lap Fifth lap Poverty, What can impacts? change?
  3. Journey starts Where are we all going? Who’s on the bus? The water and food problem
  4. World food crisis • Reasons – Declining supply – Increasing demand – Biofuels – Commodity speculation
  5. World food crisis • Reasons – Declining supply rm e -t Mid – Increasing demandrm te Lo ng- – Biofuels – Commodity speculation
  6. Basis of food demand: Time for each billion 1800-2050 …plus increased meat consumption (Molden 2007)
  7. Until recently, food demand has been met globally 300 Food Production 250 Food Production 200 per capita Index (1961=100) Cropland per 150 capita Food Prices 100 50 A success 0 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 story
  8. But this leads to increasing conflict with other users Agriculture uses > 70% of water
  9. …exacerbates World Water Crisis: Declining per capita availability of water ‘000 m3 16 14 Africa 12 10 8 World 6 Asia 4 2 MENA 0 1960 1990 2025
  10. ….enter the CPWF • We need to improve the efficiency of water use, …. more “crop per drop” in agriculture, which is the largest consumer of water. CPWF Proposal 2002
  11. Need for more strategic information A strong imperative for action The global food and water crisis CPWF But how are these coupled? phase 1 Many good projects on the ground Change ultimately must be realized on the ground
  12. Basin focal projects • Strategic research projects – 9+1 basins • Intended to fill the ’middle-ground’ – link project activities with the global problem • Need to examine how water, agriculture and poverty are coupled
  13. First of 4 BFPs started in 2005 IWMI CSIRO Niger IRD UC Davis
  14. 6 remaining BFPs started in 2008 IFPRI IWMI IRD IWMI KCL Niger FANRPAN
  15. Journey starts First lap Where are we all How to describe the …to local going? problem? Global … Who’s on the bus?
  16. Global -to local GLOBAL Basin scale Systems interact Local Scale Local impacts on land use and livelihoods
  17. Analyzing Water Food Livelihood systems in basins Second Water lap Analysis of water use Where’s the de wa asin d d Ot nds sy on at an e m te g m w m as water? he fo ste a de ncre in r cre I r er r Second lap Second Basin- Analysis of Increased demand on Food water Where’s the food system People lap scale poverty productivity in water? Where’s the analysis basins water?
  18. Journey starts First lap Second Global or lap Where are we all local going? Where’s the problem? water? Who’s on the bus? Water in basins
  19. Some basins are wetter than others 1 ET (normalised for Etp) 0.8 0.6 Volta Mekong 0.4 Indus Ganges Yellow Sao Francisco Limpopo Niger 0.2 Nile Karkheh 0 0 0.5 1 1.5 Rainfall (Normalised for Etp) From Mac Kirby
  20. Water use supports varied livelihoods M M eko ng 1,19 5 b cm Ganges 1,167 bcm Sa o Fr a nc i s c o G 622 bcm SF Nile Suppy limit Ni 2,042 bcm Capacity limit 1.0 Ganges ET / ETot p Sao Francisco Lim popo 229 bcm L Fish 0.5 Mekong Volta Crops Nile Limpopo Yellow River Livestock Karkeh Indus Yellow YR 384 bcm Irrigation 0.0 Andean 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 K ar kheh K 2 1, 4 0 2 mcm Net runoff Rain / ETpot Rainfed cropping Grass Woodland / other Irrigation
  21. Hydrology matters to livelihoods Songkhram Wet Songkhram Dry David Blake
  22. Rainfed ag. by far the biggest user 0.35 Rainfall Evaporation or Rainfall (m) 0.30 ETo 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 Jan Feb M Apr M Jun Jul Aug Sep O N Dec ar ay ct ov 45000 Calculated 40000 Observed 35000 30000 Flow, 25000 20000 15000 10000 0.35 Rainfall 5000 Evaporation or Rainfall (m) 0.30 ETo 0.25 0 0.20 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 Jan Feb M Apr M Jun Jul Aug Sep O N Dec ar ay ct ov Nile 0.35 Rainfall Evaporation or Rainfall (m) 0.30 ETo 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 From Kirby et al., W-Use Jan Feb M Apr M Jun Jul Aug Sep O N Dec ar ay ct ov
  23. Volta Devaraj de Condappa
  24. Water use Sao Francisco 0.30 Rainfall Evaporation or Rainfall (m) 0.25 ETo 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec From Kirby et al., W-Use accounts
  25. Water use Niger 0.4 Rainfall ETo Evaporation or Rainfall (m) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0.4 Rainfall Evaporation or Rainfall (m) ETo 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0.4 Rainfall Evaporation or Rainfall (m) ETo 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0.4 Rainfall Evaporation or Rainfall (m) ETo 0.3 0.2 From Kirby et al., W-Use 0.1 accounts 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
  26. But irrigation a major user in Asia Ganges From Kirby et al., W-Use accounts
  27. Basin water use and population (Preliminary analysis) Indus Ganges Water use (mcm) Water use (m cm) 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 Irrigated Irrigated Woodland + Woodland + Grass Grass Rainfed Rainfed 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 200 150 100 50 0 population (millions) population (millions) Mekong Yellow Water use (mcm) Water use (m cm) 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 Irrigated Irrigated Woodland + Woodland + Grass Grass Rainfed Rainfed 200 150 100 50 0 population (millions) 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 population (millions) Relative values better than absolutes
  28. Volta Lim popo Water use (m cm ) Water use (m cm) 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 Irrigated Woodland + Grass Rainfed 20 15 10 5 0 20 15 10 5 0 population (m illions) population (millions) Sao Francisco Nile Water use (m cm ) Water use (mcm) 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 Irrigated Woodland + Grass Rainfed 20 15 10 5 0 200 150 100 50 0 population (m illions) population (millions)
  29. Grassland and rainfed dominate area Global Land cover classes – 2000 (UNEP)
  30. In Asia, irrigation supports high population density Irrigation (IWMI)
  31. Population density (persons per km2) – (CIESIN -2000)
  32. Journey starts First lap Second Third lap Global or lap How much do Where are we all local people gain going? Where’s the problem? from water? water? Who’s on the bus? Water productivity
  33. Basic concept: Water productivity must respond faster than demand Demand System WP response crisis time
  34. In some places, water productivity is responding to demand 0.800 3 VN, Mekong Delta Rice Water productivity, kg/m 0.600 Vietnam VN Central Highlands 0.400 Laos 0.200 Cambodia NE Thailand 0.000 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Mac Kirby, 2007
  35. Other basins, response low or patchy Volta IRD, 2007 Potential= 1-2 kg/m3
  36. Actual Water-Productivity [the gain per m3 water consumed] much lower than potential Volta IRD, 2007 Potential= 1-2 kg/m3
  37. Livestock can be a major contributor to total W-Productivity
  38. Fish? All we know for sure is that their contribution is under-estimated – even in Mekong 1500 1,000 Cambodia 800 Laos GVP, million $ GVP, million $ 1000 600 400 500 200 0 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Year Year Crop Livestock Fish low estimate Crop Livestock Fisheries Fish - high estimate 5000 Thailand 5000 Vietnam 4000 GVP, million $ 4000 GVP, million $ 3000 3000 2000 2000 1000 1000 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 0 Year 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Crop Livestock Fish low estimate Crop Year Livestock Inland fisheries
  39. Full range of WPr will include • Irrigated crops • Rainfed • Livestock • Fisheries – Capture – Aquaculture …most systems highly mixed
  40. Journey starts First lap Second Third lap Global or lap How much do Where are we all local people gain going? Where’s the problem? from water? water? Who’s on the bus? Fourth lap Poverty impacts?
  41. Water agriculture and poverty Measurable livelihood impacts
  42. Water availability seems less influential than gain per volume used (water productivity) Per capita income vs. GNI vs Water water availability 50,000 40,000 GNI ($/cap PPP) 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 -10,000 Size of bubble proportional to agriculture contribution to GDP 3 Water availability (m /cap) World Bank, 2007
  43. • The poorest tend to rely on agriculture Agriculture vs GNI 50,000 Gross National Income ($/capita) 40,000 30,000 20,000 Size of bubble proportional to rural 10,000 population 0 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 -10,000 Agricultural contribution to GDP (% ) World Bank, 2007
  44. Dynamics likely to be very different according to relative function of agriculture Agriculture agriculture to GDP % Contribution of contribution to growth (%) volta Mekong Sao Karkheh Francisco World Bank, 2007 % Rural poor
  45. São Francisco: Drought is one poverty factor…of many Drought Poor education Access to credit Marcello Torres et al., 2008
  46. Karkheh, Iran: Farmers almost the poorest Proportion below poverty line Karkheh BFP team
  47. .. Mekong What people do can affect (shared) assets Dam development Changing land use, shifting cultivation, sustainability, sedimentation Seasonal water shortage, poor soils, low rice productivity Fish & environmental impacts of upstream Salinisation, water quality, highly developed Complex but understandable Eric Kemp-Benedict, 2008
  48. Journey starts First lap Second Third lap Global or lap How much do Where are we all local people gain going? Where’s the problem? from water? water? Who’s on the bus? Fourth lap Fifth lap Poverty, What can impacts? change? Interventions
  49. Global-to-local coupled systems GLOBAL water and food systems considered separately both impact on livelihoods Basin scale Systems interact through (Unspecified) transfers Local Scale Local systems considered individually Local impact not referenced to broader systems
  50. Volta: Analysing effects of small reservoirs (v 1.0) • Trade-off: – 2-fold increase in small farmers irrigated area in Burkina Faso – vs.: • Bagré (Burkina Faso): – 20% reduction in inflows (-200 mcm/y) – national trade-off. • Akosombo (Ghana): – 1% reduction in inflows (- 330 mcm/y) – transboundary trade-off. De Condappa and Volta BFP team
  51. Sao Francisco: Detailed hydro- economic modelling Effect of water constraints on profit, labour…. Steve Vosti and SF BFP team
  52. Conclusions • Water use – Huge volumes pass through agriculture – Grassland a major user in African basins – Irrigation supports vast numbers in Asia • Water productivity – Well below potential – Major systems (eg LS) not accounted • Water poverty – Few direct relationships – Ability to use water seems most important – Ability strongly determined by system
  53. Journey starts First lap Second Third lap Global or lap How much do Where are we all local people gain going? Where’s the problem? from water? water? Who’s on the bus? Fourth lap Final lap Fifth lap Poverty, What can impacts? change? Where to next?
  54. Interventions within the CP itself • Use BFPs to help “locate” projects and topics firmly in basins – Status and opportunities for rainfed productivity – Basin-scale multiple users – Pressure and change in basins • Help feed impact pathways – Data – Analysis & insight – New partners
  55. Thank you Special thanks to all BFPs

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