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Potential and Challenges of Indo-Ganges basin
 

Potential and Challenges of Indo-Ganges basin

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Presented at the 2nd Phase Planning and Review Workshop of the Indo-Ganges Basin Focal Project, 24-25 February, 2009, Haryana, India

Presented at the 2nd Phase Planning and Review Workshop of the Indo-Ganges Basin Focal Project, 24-25 February, 2009, Haryana, India

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    Potential and Challenges of Indo-Ganges basin Potential and Challenges of Indo-Ganges basin Presentation Transcript

    • Potential and Challenges of IG Basin M. A. Khan Benchmark Basin Coordinator, IGB
    • Basin Overview Basin Area : 225 million-ha Population (2001) : 747 million Percentage rural population (2001) India : 74.5 Pakistan : 68 Bangladesh : 79.9 Nepal : 86 Percentage of population below poverty line (2000) : 30.5 Net cropped area : 114 million ha. Water use in agriculture : 91.4%
    • •Low productivity (Rice-Wheat 4-5 t/ha) •Low productivity (Rice-Wheat 4-5 t/ha) --low to medium potential low to medium potential •Poor investment in infrastructure •Poor investment in infrastructure •Medium-high precipitation •Medium-high precipitation •High potential for cold water fisheries •High potential for cold water fisheries and livestock and livestock •Degradation of Land and water •Degradation of Land and water resources resources •Deficient human capital combined with •Deficient human capital combined with high out-migration high out-migration •Downstream environmental constraints •Downstream environmental constraints •Low population density •Low population density
    • •Low Productivity (4-8 t/ha) --Food deficit region •Low Productivity (4-8 t/ha) Food deficit region •Low investment in infrastructure •Low investment in infrastructure •Low inputs of fertilizer and water •Low inputs of fertilizer and water •Medium --High rainfall, More per capita water •Medium High rainfall, More per capita water availability availability •Underutilization of ground water (< 20 %) •Underutilization of ground water (< 20 %) •Very few developed irrigation network •Very few developed irrigation network •Coastal salinity and sea water intrusion •Coastal salinity and sea water intrusion •Moderate water quality hazards •Moderate water quality hazards •High risk of flooding, poor drainage and moderate •High risk of flooding, poor drainage and moderate drought drought •Out-migration of labour to other regions •Out-migration of labour to other regions •High population density •High population density •High Productivity (R-W: 8-12 t/ha) --Food surplus region •High Productivity (R-W: 8-12 t/ha) Food surplus region •High investment in infrastructure •High investment in infrastructure •Major inputs of fertilizer and water •Major inputs of fertilizer and water •Low --Medium rainfall, Low per capita water availability •Low Medium rainfall, Low per capita water availability •Over exploitation of ground water (>80 %) •Over exploitation of ground water (>80 %) •Well developed irrigated network •Well developed irrigated network •Secondary salinization •Secondary salinization •Severe ground water quality hazards •Severe ground water quality hazards •Severe to moderate drought prone areas •Severe to moderate drought prone areas •In-migration of labour •In-migration of labour •Medium-high population density •Medium-high population density
    • Satellite imagery of Indo-Gangetic Basin
    • India Pakistan Nepal Bangladesh
    • Percentage area distribution IGB - country-wise Nepal 17% Bangladesh 9% India 52% Pakistan 22%
    • Catchment Area-IGB Source: Ministry Water Resources Indus Ganges Origin Manasarovar Gangotri (Tibet) (India) Total area (m 116.6 108.6 ha) (Tibet, India, Pak (China, Nepal, and Afganistan) India, Bangladesh) Catchment 32.1 86.1 area in India (m ha) Length in 1114 2525 India (km)
    • Trend in cereal production in IGB countries
    • Trend in cropping intensity in IGB countries
    • Productivity trend of rice and wheat in IG Basin.
    • Water Resources Potential Indus Ganges Average annual surface water 73.3 523.0 potential (km3) Estimated Utilizable flow 46.0 250.0 excluding Ground Water (km3) Total replenishable Ground Water 26.5 171.0 resources (km3) Level of Ground Water 77.7 33.5 development (%) Per Capita available water 2382 1951 (m3)
    • Water resources potential in the river basins of India 700 600 Resource Potential (bcm ) 500 Indus 400 Ganga Brahm aputra 300 200 100 0 Averag e annual s urface water p o tential Es timated utilis ab le flo w exclud ing To tal rep lemis hab le g ro und water (b cm) g ro und water (b cm) res o urces (b cm)
    • Ground water potential and the level of ground water development Water Resource Potential (bcm/year) 180 160 140 120 100 Indus 80 Ganga 60 40 20 0 Total replenishable Available ground w ater balance ground w ater Level of ground w ater ground w ater resources for irrigation potential available for development (%) resources exploitation
    • State-wise development of ground water 100 Level of ground water 90 development (%) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Haryana Punjab Uttar Pradesh Bihar West Bengal States
    • Flood Prone areas in IG Plains
    • Calorie availability in IGB countries
    • CPWF PROJECTS DURING PHASE-I CPWF interventions in Indo-Gangetic Basin to increase water productivity is through 9 projects from first cycle of funding and one project from second cycle operating in different part of the basin of which for 7 projects are in IGB as major basin and for 3 projects IGB is secondary basin. Apart from this there are three Small Grants projects aimed at dissemination of knowledge and ideas to increase water productivity Basin Focal Project is approved for two years (2008-09) laid by IWMI.
    • Approved Projects with IGB representation (Phase-I) PN Short Title Project Partners in IGB Lead Lead Secondary Basin Leader Theme Basin 7 Improving productivity in salt affected IRRI CRRI, CSSRI, NDUAT, BRRI, 1 IGB areas ICRISAT 23 Resources management for sustainable IWMI- IWMI-India, Peoples’s Science 2 IGB livelihood Nepal Institute-Uttaranchal, Institute of water and human resource development-Nepal 34 Improved fisheries in tropical reservoirs ICAR CIFRI 3 IGB 35 Community based fish culture WorldFish CIFRI, CIFA, BARC 3 IGB center 42 Groundwater Governance in IGB & YRB IWMI-India IWMI-India, MoWR-Nepal, 4 IGB basins WAPDA-Bangladesh 48 Strategic analyses of river-linking IWMI-India GIDR-Gujrath, IRM-Anand 5 IGB 10 Coastal Resource management for IRRI BARC, BFRI-Bangladesh 1 Mekong IGB improving livelihoods 16 Aerobic Rice IRRI IARI-WTC 1 Yellow IGB & Mekong River 28 Multiple use systems IWMI-SA IWMI-India, IDE-India 2 Limpopo Nile, Indus- Ganges, Mekong, Andean .Basin. SG-507 Water Control for Small Plot Farming IDE, Nepal IG—Western Hills of Nepal and - IGB System Deccan Plateau of Maharashtra, SG-508 Harit Sankalp-Greening Alwar District HPPI, India HPPI, New Delhi; IWMI, New - IGB Delhi SG-512 Affordable Irrigation for Smallholder IDE, New IWMI-TATA, Gujarat; IDF, - IGB farmers Delhi Haryana 68 Research to quantify livestock use of, and ILRI IWMI, ICAR, - IGB impact on, water resources in diverse production systems.
    • Research Gaps during 1st Phase of Challenge Program 1) Research needed in wide range of crops other than rice. 2) Climate Change impacts in livelihoods especially in costal area. 3) System approach to deal with agricultural problems in a delineated geography. Ganges Basin
    • The CPWF Phase 1 Ganges work suggests the following policy guidance demand: Institutional development for water governance, environmental and natural resources management with a particular focus on the development of institutional capacities for integrated water resources management. The development of integrated solutions to saline intrusion and management. Strategies for maintaining the sustainable groundwater exploitation. Methods for improving the agricultural productivity of flood plains. The development of instruments to enable negotiated water supply and allocation be-tween the basin’s countries and states. Assessment and developing suitable model on climate vulnerability and climate change and to suggest technologies to cop up with the situation due to climate change. Ganges Basin
    • Researchable Issues for Second Phase 1) With increasing water congestion, how to provide livelihood options to poor landless based innovation of traditional system of floating agriculture/aquaculture? 2) What would be the salinity front under climate change situation? 3) How the productivity of major crops like wheat in Rabi season can be improved? 4) How to improve the understanding of water congested agro-ecologies in the eastern Ganges basin and gangetic delta? 5) What shall be the livelihood impacts of integrated systems on landless and marginal farmers 6) What shall be the most suitable up scaling mechanism and enabling policies for potential integrated systems? 7) What is the water and land suitability and spatial variability for integrated agriculture and aquaculture? (I.A.A.) 8) How can the benefits of I.A.A. be shared among different among different sectors of stakeholders? 9) Can groundwater be suitable used in increasing dry season productivity in the coastal region of the Ganges basin? 10) How the recharge mechanisms can be suitable used to reduce salinity? 11) What are the effects of Climate change on different socio-economic groups and their coping mechanisms? Ganges Basin
    • Challenge 1. Integrated Agriculture and Aquaculture in Ganges Basin Ganges Basin
    • Research Questions What kind of management is required for farming located at the interface between saline and freshwater environments? How can farmers better cope with the switch between saline and freshwater conditions? What kinds of technologies can be developed for farmers to retain and take advantage of flood waters for use during the dry season? What technologies can be developed or introduced to allow farmers to take advantage of groundwater threatened by saline contamination? What additional, non-rice species (whether plant or animal) can be integrated into the saline/freshwater cropping system to bolster water productivity and diversify the liveli-hoods base? Are there other, non-rice, saline tolerant crops that can be introduced to diversify farm-ers’ income bases and improve livelihoods? How can these new varieties and technologies be rapidly scaled out in terms of know how, seed availability and inputs? How can associated marketing systems be improved and implemented? What effective water management strategies are needed to optimize the use of available resources through crop calendars, crop species and varieties, and level of tolerance at each stage? What kinds of supporting (local/formal) institutions are needed to enable this integrated system to be developed, implemented and adopted? Can conflict between different users of delta freshwater resource be minimised, and if so, how? Can flood plains be developed to support shrimp or other aquatic species during flood seasons, with a reversion to agricultural use during the dry season? How can this flood season common property resource be managed? If these new systems are successfully implemented, what will the benefits be to aquacul-turalists and farmers, and on the environment? Ganges Basin
    • Kosi Flood 2008 in Bihar, India The Kosi flood occurred due to breach (about 3 km long) in the Kosi embankment upstream of Kosi Barrage at Birpur near the Kusaha village in Nepal embankment on18th August 2008. Current of the swollen Kosi river = 13 km wide over a strech of 100 km. Affected districts: Supaul, Saharsa, Araria, Madhepura and Purnia. Ganges Basin
    • Geographical situation of the Bihar state North Bihar has an area of about 5.4 million hectares Frequent change of river course Frequent Floods and Droughts 17 per cent of the total flood affected area of the country is in Bihar 57 per cent of the total floods affected people in the country belong to Bihar, out of which 76 per cent reside in north Bihar Playfield of eight major rivers – Ghaghra, Gandak, Burhi Gandak, Adhwara group of rivers, Bagmati, Kamla, Bhutahi Balan, Kosi and Mahananda. All major rivers like Kosi,Gandak,Bagmati,Mahananda and Adhwara group of rivers originate in Nepal 61% of the catchment area lies in Nepal & Tibet. Steep gradient of Himalayan ranges carries lot of silt to the plains of North Bihar. Ganges Basin
    • Sapt Kosi River in Nepal Ganges Basin
    • Shifted Course of Kosi River after 2008 Breach Ganges Basin
    • Agricultural loss due to flood since 1990 up to 2004 Sl. Year Cropped Area Crop Damage No. (Lakh Hect.) (Lakh Rs.) 1 1990 3.21 1818.88 2 1991 4.05 2361.03 3 1992 0.25 58.09 4 1993 11.35 13950.17 5 1994 3.50 5616.33 6 1995 4.24 19514.32 7 1996 7.34 7169.29 8 1997 6.55 5737.66 9 1998 12.84 36696.68 10 1999 3.04 24203.88 11 2000 3.90 22280.70 12 2001 4.60 23108.66 13 2002 8.104 46744.30 14 2003 6.052 6266.13 15 2004 11.242 14000.00 Ganges Basin
    • IMPACT OF KOSI FLOOD Sl.No Activities Supaul Madhepura Araria Saharsa Purnea Total 1 No. of Blocks 5 11 4 6 9 35 affected 2 No. of Villages 173 370 141 169 140 993 affected 3 Population 696816 1409871 626062 448796 164000 3345545 affected 4 Livestock 132500 303640 80000 161000 35000 712140 affected 5 Area affected 0.51 1.59 0.45 0.38 0.47 3.4 6 No. of Persons 370000 335110 107937 115945 65000 993992 evacuated 7 No. of Human 15 187 2 34 1 239 deaths Ganges Basin
    • Kosi Flood-2008 Ganges Basin
    • Challenge 2. The integrated management of groundwater in the Ganges River Basin. Ganges Basin
    • The research The Ganges has some 171 km3 of replenishable groundwater resources; in the Indian part of the basin, just 33.5% of these resources have been developed, compared for example to 77.7% in the Indus. Some 36.5 million ha of agricultural land are irrigated, of which 25.3 million ha are irrigated by groundwater. In the east of the basin, groundwater supplies are under-exploited – just 25% of water used is groundwater derived. In Nepal too, groundwater resources are barely utilized. In the west of the basin, however, groundwater resources are excessively exploited. Natural recharge is declining. India’s rainfall is becoming characterized by high intensity bursts that occur over short periods of time. Run-off associated with these bursts is too rapid to perco-late into aquifers, a problem compounded by upper catchment land degradation and defor-estation, which increases run-off, and minimises sub-surface recharge flows. Ganges Basin
    • Research questions ● What are the key deficiencies in current Ganges ground-water management? ● What are the political relationships that define groundwater use in the Ganges? ● What policy, political, institutional and legislative changes can be proposed to improve groundwater management in the Ganges? ● How can groundwater resources be communally managed? What government institutions can be brought to bear to support such management systems? ● What would an integrated (to include groundwater, surface and rainwater) water manage-ment plan for the Ganges look like, and what kinds of impacts would it have if adopted? ● What kinds of technologies can be used to recharge groundwater aquifers, and how could their widespread adoption be achieved? What would be the likely impact on groundwater tables if such technologies were successful implemented? ● What kinds of agriculture (crops and/or livestock) should be used to reduce demand-side water use? ● How can negative effects of introducing aerobic rice varieties (such as weeding times, de-creased iron content, and downstream water effects) be reduced? ● If widely adopted, how could aerobic rice affect groundwater tables? ● In what ways can the lag time between gypsum applications and land reclamation be re-duced? ● If successful strategies for treating sodicity were adopted, what would be the impact on the basin as a whole? ● How can the rights of the poor to groundwater and other water sources be protected? Are there low-cost technologies or market systems that can enable the poor to access ground-water, and what impact would their widespread adoption have on groundwater use? ● What changes need to be made if upper catchments are to increase sub-surface water flow for groundwater management? ● In what ways can the lessons of the western Ganges be built in to groundwater manageme Ganges Basin
    • Impact challenge 3 Climate change and vulnerability of food system in IGB and adaptation strategies
    • Summary Adopted From Fourth Assessment Report Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change A global assessment of data since 1970 has shown it is likely that anthropogenic warming has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems. Other effects of regional climate changes on natural and human environments are emerging, although many are difficult to discern due to adaptation and non-climatic drivers. Impacts due to altered frequencies and intensities of extreme weather, climate and sea-level events are very likely to change. Some large-scale climate events have the potential to cause very large impacts, especially after the 21st century. Impacts of climate change will vary regionally but, aggregated and discounted to the present, they are very likely to impose net annual costs which will increase over time as global temperatures increase. Some adaptation is occurring now, to observed and projected future climate change, but on a limited basis. Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions. A wide array of adaptation options is available, but more extensive adaptation than is currently occurring is required to reduce vulnerability to future climate change. There are barriers, limits and costs, but these are not fully understood. Vulnerability to climate change can be exacerbated by the presence of other stresses. Future vulnerability depends not only on climate change but also on development pathway. Sustainable development can reduce vulnerability to climate change, and climate change could impede nations’ abilities to achieve sustainable development pathways. Many impacts can be avoided, reduced or delayed by mitigation. A portfolio of adaptation and mitigation measures can diminish the risks associated with climate change.
    • Reality – Difficult to face This is only example …… Who want this type of tea break???? Damaged and submerged railway tract in Bihar An Indian family sits in waterlogged home in (August 27, 2008) Amritsar (August 13, 2008) Cost of this water??? Struggle to survive People salvage their belongings in a improvised boat in Nepal Cost of this service ??? (August 24, 2008) A man carries drinking water through flood Richshaw pullet wade through flood water in Lucknow (August 27, 2008) water in Bihar (August 19, 2008)
    • Climate Change and South Asia Temperature Warming above the global mean temperature Fewer very cold days Precipitation, snow and ice Increase in precipitation in most of Asia. Increase in the frequency of intense precipitation events in parts of South Asia Increasing reduction in snow and ice in Himalayan and Tibetan Plateau glaciers Extreme Events Increase in droughts during the summer months and El Niño events; Increase in extreme rainfall and winds associated with tropical cyclones; Increase in intense rainfall events causing landslides and severe floods; Increase in heat waves/hot spells in summer of longer duration, more intense and more frequent, particularly in East Asia.
    • Climate Change and South Asia Water Increasing water stress due to decrease of freshwater availability, particularly in large river basins. Increase in the number and severity of glacial melt-related floods, slope destabilization followed by decrease in river flows as glaciers disappear. Coastal Zones Millions of people in lowland coastal areas affected by sea level rise and an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones. Coastal inundation is likely to seriously affect the aquaculture industry and infrastructure particularly in highly populated mega deltas. Stability of wetlands, mangroves, and coral reefs increasingly threatened. Agriculture Crop yield could decrease up to 30% by end of 21st Century.
    • Research questions Climate change may lead to higher temperatures and greater variable and/or reduced levels of rainfall. These will affect the yields of such crops as rice, wheat, maize and pulses, with unknown consequences for food prices and food security. Larger populations will require more food. Rapid economic growth is transforming the structure of demand for food, away from food grains and towards (relatively water- intensive) fruits, vegetables, dairy and other high value products. What are the likely impacts of climate change and market changes on food security and on the availability of surface water and groundwater? What are the current and future opportunities for virtual water trade in the basin? At the same time, energy security will become more of an issue – however, production of biofuels also requires water. How will policy responses to energy insecurity affect rural livelihoods and water use? What effects will climate changes have on the use and availability of water. What are the possible responses to Climate Change? What are the adaptation strategies? How to harness the beneficial impacts of climate change?
    • Impact challenge 4. Integrated catchments management and its impacts on livelihood
    • Land degradation due to environmental, mining activities and unplanned development is a major problem in IGB. Large scale deforestation drought, flood and soil erosion are major problem in this basin. Catchments management is the most neglected component especially in the rainfed ecosystem. Integration of land and water management strategies is required for effective catchment management. Research Questions How can development of small scale reservoirs can facilitate integrated water management? What are the technologies available for management of rainfed areas? How can the dry season agriculture be made better resource efficient? How can the strategies for the Conjunctive use of water be developed? What are the farming system better suited to land and water conservation in the catchments? What will be the strategies for integrated watershed management to enhance land and water productivity in rainfed area to enhance livelihood security. What will be the strategies for artificial ground water recharge of depleted aquifer.
    • Thank you for your Attention Ganges Basin