Niger Basin Focal Project

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Presented at the Basin Focal Project workshop 'Clarifying the global picture of water, food and poverty' from 18-20th September in Chiang Mai, Thailand.

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Niger Basin Focal Project

  1. 1. Niger Basin Focal Project Coordination: Chiang Mai workshop, 18 September 2009 Jean Charles CLANET Andrew OGILVIE
  2. 2. Large transboundary basin • 4183 km • 2.1 M km² / 1.2 M km² • 10 countries Country Basin size per country Proportion Proportion (km ²) of basin of country w ithin w ithin country basin (% ) (% ) Benin 44,967 3,5 38,7 Burkina Faso 86,919 6,8 31,5 Cameroon 86,381 6,8 18,4 Côte d’Ivoire 23,550 1,9 7,3 Guinea 98,095 7,7 39,9 Mali 263,168 20,7 20,9 Niger 87,846 6,9 7,4 Nigeria 562,372 44,2 61,5 Tchad 19,516 1,5 1,5 TO L Active TA 1,272,814 100 - Basin BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  3. 3. Spanning range of agroclimatic zones From <50mm in North to >4500mm in South BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  4. 4. Prone to extreme demographic expansion Evolution of Niger Basin population 2005-2050 according to various UN DESA scenarios 450 000 000 400 000 000 384 036 651 350 000 000 Constant-fertility variant High variant Medium variant 300 000 000 Low variant 246 388 996 Population 250 000 000 215 273 326 200 000 000 186 656 464 150 000 000 100 000 000 94 506 856 50 000 000 - 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year Population density (Source: D Kaczan based on SEDAC data) BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  5. 5. Due to high fertility • Future population trends will depend on speed of fertility decrease and HIV/AIDS prevalence Sources: Tabutin and Guengan BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  6. 6. Subject to extreme poverty • 8 in Low development category UNDP HDI • Generalised poverty where education, roads, electricity, health, water sector are underdeveloped BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  7. 7. Often regarded as water poor BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  8. 8. Complex wider context BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  9. 9. WP2: Rainfall distribution 300 300 700 730 520 200 450 Mean annual rainfall (average 1951-1990), 200 100 and monthly rainfall for wet and dry years 100 0 0 J M M J S 400 J M M J S 1700 300 300 1350 1050 30 0 900 200 1200 200 20 0 1100 100 100 0 10 0 J M M J S 0 0 J M M J S J M M J S • Uneven water distribution – Significant rainfall in South and up to 13° N – Quarter of basin under Sahel and Semi-arid climate BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  10. 10. Rainfall variability • Seasonal and inter- annual variations • Recent drought and future uncertainties Cartographie SIG, C. Dieulin, 2009, IRD/ HSM BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  11. 11. Impact on river flows • Peculiar hydrology • 3 major « châteaux d’eau » in South of basin Source: Marquette, Zwarts et al, FAO BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  12. 12. Advances in basin hydrology Main Niger sub-basins and annual hydrographs for wet and dry years • Ability to predict Discharges in m3/s changes in flow from B C rainfall predictions • Impact of A D dams, E climate change, F land use change etc BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  13. 13. Hydrogeology… • Large uncertainties over GW reserves • 5-50 mm/year GW recharge depending on location and land use BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  14. 14. Towards water accounting Gretp1984.shp 0 0 - 17422 17422 - 21228 21228 - 25547 25547 - 31439 BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  15. 15. Water use: green water • Substantial rainfall (except North) • But short and erratic rainy season BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  16. 16. WP3: Blue water use and irrigation • Blue water largely under-exploited • Irrigation largely under-developed • Reliance on rainfed agriculture BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  17. 17. Irrigation zones and systems • Irrigation along river • Small dams • Inner Delta • Recession flood • Nigeria dams, fadamas, • Lowlands Sokoto BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  18. 18. Nigeria’s greater control over water • Nigeria as leader in dam construction and irrigation types de périmètres Burkina Mali Niger Nigeria total grands périmètres 8000 62500 13000 69 000 152500 PIV publique 3000 9500 12500 PIV collectif 6000 8000 14000 PIV individuel 4000 50000 161 700 215700 petit privé 30000 30000 agroindust 4000 4500 8500 décrue 60000 12000 723 000 795 000 submers cont 85000 85 000 basfonds subm cont 9000 22000 18 500 49 500 total 34000 281500 75000 972 500 390500 Source (Association Régionale de l'Irrigation et du Drainage en Afrique de l'Ouest et du Centre 2004) FAO 1992 et JICA 1993 pour le Nigéria BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  19. 19. Vast potential for irrigation BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  20. 20. WPr of selected irrigation zones Superficie Nom des Pluviométrie Superficie intensité Typologie APPIA Pays fleuves Date de réalisation moyenne par Culture principale périmètres moyenne annuelle équipée(en ha) culturale % exploitant (ha) Lata T1 Niger 756 1991 227,0 1,00 Riz 200 Kamaka T2 Mali 451 1994 16,0 0,41 Riz Sinah T2 Mali 449 1997 49,0 1,00 Riz 100 Saba 1 T3 Mali 410 2001 35,0 2,50 Riz 100 B1 T1 Mali 383 1951 576,7 20,00 Riz 151 Djidian T1 Mali 553 1950 298,0 12,00 Riz 100 Boundoum T1 Sénégal 250 1991 262,0 1,70 Riz Nakambe/ bagre T1 Burkina Faso 910 1974 680,0 1,00 Riz 200 Vallée du Kou T1 Burkina Faso 943 1970 1260,0 1,00 Riz 200 Sakoira T3 Niger 379 1992 3,6 WPr of market gardening activitivies and rice 0,20 Oignon 180 Source: APPIA Tera T2 Niger 382 1981 46,0 1,00 oignon, tomate 125 Gamkale T4 Niger 526 1980 200,0 0,16 choux, poivron, laitue 200 Mbida T2 Niger 334 1997 17,0 0,07 Niébé 200 Keur Mbir Ndao T4 Sénégal 326 1966 20,0 0,08 Oignon Mbawane T4 Sénégal 366 1974 40,0 1,20 Oignon pomme de terre, Titao Burkina Faso 588 1999 4,5 0,06 T3 oignon 200 BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  21. 21. WPr in wet and dry season Wet season Dry season 3000.0 2000.0 Gross Inflow (mm/ha) I rrigation (mm/ha) Evapot ranspirat ion (mm/ha) 1800.0 2500.0 Ev apotranspiration (mm/ha) 1600.0 1400.0 2000.0 1200.0 1500.0 1000.0 800.0 1000.0 600.0 400.0 500.0 200.0 0.0 0.0 Bargodaga Kamaka Sinah Saba1 Djidian B1 N10 Lata B1 N10 Sakoira Tera Gamkale Mbida Irrigation Scheme Irrigation Scheme 25000 Irrigated inflow (m3) 1.00 35000.0 6.0 Irrigation inflow (mm/ha) Yield (Kg) WP (Kg/m3) 0.90 Gross Value Product ($/ha) Gross Valur Product/ Irrigation inflow 30000.0 WP ($/m3) 5.0 20000 0.80 W ate r Productivity (kg/m 3) Water productivity ($/m3) 25000.0 0.70 4.0 15000 0.60 20000.0 Yie ld (kg) 0.50 3.0 15000.0 10000 0.40 2.0 0.30 10000.0 5000 0.20 1.0 5000.0 0.10 0 0.00 0.0 0.0 Kamaka B1 Sinah Djidian N10 Saba1 Bargodaga Lata B1 N10 Sakoira Tera Gamkale Mbida Irrigation Schemes Irrigation Scheme BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  22. 22. Identified constraints BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  23. 23. WP3: Rainfed agriculture BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  24. 24. Rainfed Water productivity 1999, good year kg grain per ton applied water: Intercepted rainfall kg grain per ton depleted water: Evapotranspirable water • Maps of rainfed WPr Leached soils Heavy rainfall according to CPWF definition Rainfed cereals = marginal crops • Difficult/dangerous to Major crops = lowland rice interpret => return to theory BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  25. 25. Increasing rain utility • Within context of increasing strain on water resources need to ensure water is used efficiently and to produce most value (food, energy, water supply, environment) strive to increase total utility of water (increase/better water depending activities, save water and assign it to activities showing a deficit). In agriculture, “more crop per drop” • Rainfed agriculture differs somewhat as rain is not necessarily the limiting factor, even in Sahel (Breman and Cissoko, 1998) • Rainfed agriculture also faces two constraints: – cannot reduce applied water (the rainfall is an environmental data ); – cannot try to reduce depleted water (actual ET is an environmental function which controls the moisture and rain parameters (Monteny and Casenave, 1989) • To increase the direct utility of the rain one can only improve the rainfed production process – where rain falls in excess, reduce its noxiousness; – where it falls insufficiently, improve its efficiency (RUE); – if rain is adequate, reduce the other limiting factors BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  26. 26. Measuring direct utility of rain • Rain is a necessary condition to rainfed production but not necessarily a (limiting) factor • WProd does not inform the level of utility of rain in general, and must be reserved for activities where water is really a factor (such as irrigation, or rainfed in arid zone). • In rainfed agriculture, this rain utility can be measured in various indicators: – Average yield : productivity of the “rain field” (= land) assigned to rainfed crop – Average food production per rural capita (allows to judge satisfaction of the needs, and labour productivity) – Population living of rain resources (human production of the " rain field") – Land use assigned to the rainfed crops •very low rainfed land use in Guinea and arid zone (<5%) rainfed = marginal activity • relatively low global rainfed land-use (<15%) • some districts in Niger, and Nigeria >25% – Rain-use efficiency (RUE) when the rain is a limiting factor BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  27. 27. Rain as a limiting factor max. phytomass (t MS/ha) 12 Savanna grass production becomes 10 dependent to variations in rainfall 8 perennial grass, slope, latitude 11-12°N above 10°N (below 800mm) 6 perennial grass, slope, latitude 4 (Fournier 1991). 6-9°N 2 0 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 rainfall of the year (mm) t de céréales par habitant rural (Cereal ton/capita) Usual droughts (1986): 0,50 1984 1986 1988 1994 no effect if zone >800mm 0,45 small effect 500-800mm 0,40 great effect <500mm 0,35 = (insufficiency) 0,30 0,25 0,20 FS Heavy droughts (1984) 0,15 great effect <1000mm 0,10 (insufficiency) 0,05 - sahélien<500 soudanosahel nord soud centre sud 500-600mm 600-800 soudanien soudanien 800-1000 >1000 mm BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  28. 28. RUE when rain is limiting factor • Relevant in areas of rainfall under 600mm for pearl millet, 700 mm for sorghum (at the beginning of cycle), 800 m for maize, 900 mm for tubers, 1000 mm for rice (approximately). • How to measure it? Actual ET is not an universal water index, as dependent on ETP and ETM Prod/ETa is not relevant RUE index RUE index: water satisfaction index: actual ET/potentiel ET or a better water indicator (IRESP). The higher the water index, the higher the yield RUE index: relative yield (actual yield/potential yield) at a standard deficit (IRESP 0,5 or actET/potET 0,75) • Increase RUE by 1) increasing water Relative yield satisfaction index (= reduce 1 deficit = synchronising offer and demand) System B System A 2) increasing relative yield in case of water index <1, and reducing drought resistance 0 Water index IRESP 0,5 1 (minimising actual ET of zero IRESP, yield) 0 ActualET/potential ET BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  29. 29. WP3: Fisheries BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  30. 30. Inner Delta fisheries Delta amont (Juilet à octobre 1995) Surface 15000 inondée 2 (km ) 0,0093x 10000 y = 36,637e 2 R = 0,9629 5000 0 0 200 400 600 800 Hauteur d'eau à la station de Mopti (cm) 100 Total catch (tonsx1000) 80 60 40 20 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Inflow Mopti (m3/s, July-November) BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  31. 31. Marginal WPr in Inner Delta fisheries Fish marketed in Mopti ( t; t+1) according to flood index (t) 25000 y = 157.47x - 483 20000 R2 = 0.72 15000 10000 5000 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Flood index (in days) Abstraction of some volume to the river flood decreases the fish catch, about 28 tonnes/y for 1 m3/s during the flood period. Data for 1988-2005 from Mali administration, processed by CP 72 BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  32. 32. Constraints to livelihood in fisheries socio economic environment of poor countries (school, health, domestic water, credit) poor productive assets sometimes a lack of landuse rights environmental change BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  33. 33. Fisheries in the Niger basin • Major drivers of change: – changes in hydrologic regime • rainfall variability and climate change, • construction of reservoirs and water abstraction – increased pressure on ressource, • increased total population and boom on fish demand by urban markets, • increased fishers population BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  34. 34. WP3: Livestock BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  35. 35. Livestock Water Productivity • LWP= ∑ Value of production and services (V) Quantity of water withdrawn for production and services LWP= Vv + Vl + Vf + Vt + Vcp Qefn + Qefc + Qerr + Qecm Animal products and services: meat (v), milk (l), manure (f), traction and transport (t), leather & skin (cp) Water in animal feed (natural, fn; cultivated; fc); crop residues (rr), drinking water (cm) • Data gathering complete for V, finalising calculations for water from animal feed and crop residues (Crop water use) • Continue determining options to improve systems and LWP where necessary (questions over how to interpret LWP) BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  36. 36. Livestock distribution BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  37. 37. Evolution of stock numbers 1978-2050 Evolution annuelle du cheptel (bovins et petits ruminants) en zone agroclimatique aride du système pastoral du BFN de 1978 à 2008 450000 400000 350000 300000 Nombre (Tête) 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 Année Bovins Petits Ruminants Evolution annuelle du cheptel (bovins, petits ruminants et camelins) en zone agroclimatique aride du système pastoral du BFN de 2008 à 2050 18000000 16000000 14000000 12000000 Nombre (Tête) 10000000 8000000 6000000 4000000 2000000 0 Année Bovins Petits Ruminants Camelins BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  38. 38. Pastoral & trade movements Clanet, 2009 BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  39. 39. Leglislation surrounding pastoralism DISPOSITIFS Benin Burkina Cam. Côte Iv Guinée Mali Niger Nigeria2 Tchad Locaux (us et coutumes) X X X X X X X X X Nationaux (Législatifs : textes, lois codes, X X X X X X X X X décrets, schémas directeurs … 1987 1984 1983 1982 1995 1996 1997 1979 1960 Gestion quotidienne L>N L>N L>N L>N L>N L>N L>N L>N L>N Bassin - - - - - - - X - Régionaux •CEDEAO (x) x x x X X X •CEBV x x x x x x - •CILSS x x x x x x x - x Dispositifs focalises sur : Migrants Aména- N.r. Aména- Prati- Code Aména- Sectoriel Hydrau gements gements ques A-P gements lique 1- PRASET : Projet Régional d'Appui au Secteur de l'Elevage Transhumant, GTZ, Niamey, 1997 2- Hors CEDEO 3- CEDAO : Communauté des Etats de l’Afrique de l’Ouest 4- CILSS : Comité inter-états de lutte contre la sécheresse au Sahel 5- CEBV : Communauté du bétail et de la Viande Mobilités pastorales transfrontalières besoin: « sécuriser le foncier pastoral » (PRASET, Niamey, GTZ, 1997). Legislation exists but rarely applied. Local customs take precedence over national law BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  40. 40. WP4: Institutional context • Transboundary dependance • Lack of transboundary and national water management BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  41. 41. Institutional difficulties Bénin BF Cam C.I. Gui Mali Niger Nigeria Tchad Droit/Politi Permis Droits que Concession Titre foncier ationaliste Propriété Propriété Propriété Pas clair d’occuper occupation GIRE Projet PAGIRE Gire = Cellule GIRE Principes adopté Plan directeur Pris en compte À améliorer Principe pilote reconnus défi Décentralis ation Inachevé, 6 dép. 13 régions 10 provinces début Collectivités 8 régions 789 LGAs Difficile déficit Gouv/Cout Reconnaiss Reconnaiss Reconnaiss Reconnaiss Reconnaiss umier ance Chefs consultés À améliorer ance ance ance Pas reconnu Très mauvais ance Genre PDFA PDFA - - PDFA PDFA - PDFA - signé signé signé signé signé • Recent institutions/decentralisation • Budding IWRM • Uneven recognition of traditional law D’après 2iE, EIER-ETSHER BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  42. 42. Importance of institutions at local level • Impact on WPr via land tenure • Existing systems based on traditional law/customs Users type Proprietor Claimant Authorized User Authorized Entrant - State - ‘Maître des eaux, des terres, des pâturages’ Exploitation unity (e.g. with Lineage member: Undifferentiated actor : Property right in the Inner discretionary power on water, land or pasture fishery right) prescribed right for individual or herd Delta access or outsider (with a temporal pasture access without particular status - Chiefs (village, family, lineage or production right for extraction) unit) Access X X X X Withdrawal X X X Management X X Exclusion X BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  43. 43. Legal pluralism issue - Legal plurality: overlap of traditional and modern water/land rights - Decentralisation, IWRM, NGOs add to this plurality - Creates more authority structures & levels and set of rules - Case by case study required, some mixtures work better than others BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  44. 44. WP1: Water and poverty at a national scale Falkenmark WPI HDI -0.21 n/a SVI 0.07 -0.47 GSI -0.18 -0.08 Headcount Ratio 0.26 -0.34 CSIRO.
  45. 45. Issue no. 1: What and where is poverty? Child mortality Child morbidity universally agreed-to metric No Hot spot (stunting) Household wealth CSIRO.
  46. 46. Issue no. 2: Accounting for causes of poverty •Derive weightings from the data • Spatially explicit modelling – heterogeneous coefficients for a heterogeneous problem CSIRO.
  47. 47. Outcomes: e.g. Central Mali For each hotspot, we identified the most serious water constraint • Water poverty manifests in different ways in different places Central Mali and the Inner Delta Poverty definitions are crucial → use multiple metrics simultaneously and compare results CSIRO.
  48. 48. Modelled outcomes: Central Mali Wealth Morbidity Mortality (Constant) -0.16539 -1.71010 *** 0.14522 *** Population density (people/km2) 0.00137 ** 0.00040 -0.00004 Population (people) 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 Telephones (proportion) - 0.74888 -0.10982 Electricity (proportion) - -0.39659 0.10017 NPP (produced) (tonnes/0.25° cell) - - - Access (’00 km) 0.04319 0.17222 -0.01578 Education (years) 0.22160 *** 0.20625 * -0.03104 ** Forest Cover (proportion) -0.17428 0.04348 0.00325 Cattle density (units/km2) 0.00001 0.00443 0.00055 Chicken density (units/km2) -0.00024 0.00031 -0.00029 Sheep density (units/km2) -0.00081 * -0.00172 0.00025 * Goat density (units/km2) -0.00107 -0.00457 0.00013 pig density (units/km2) -0.01497 -0.06780 -0.00559 Unprotected water (proportion) -0.20029 *** 0.32213 -0.00789 Water Access (minutes) -0.00282 0.02090 ** 0.00038 Dams (’00 km) - - - Irrigation (percent) -0.00631 *** 0.01206 * -0.00090 Precipitation (mm/yr) - - - TARWR (m3/yr/km2/person) 0.00871 0.01864 -0.00406 Drought Economic Risk (decile) 0.01388 * 0.03840 * 0.00311 Human footprint (1-100 index) 0.00120 0.00667 0.00059 Malaria prevalence (parasite ratio) -0.18819 ** -0.26380 -0.06278 * Moran’s I for residuals -0.025 -0.002 -0.011 Akaike information criterion -144.31 37.22 -321.88 Aprox. Pseudo adj. R2 0.81 0.63 0.60 Spatial weights matrix 2 nearest neighbors 3 nearest neighbors 1 nearest neighbor CSIRO. Sample size 83 83 83
  49. 49. Outcomes: Considerable variation between hotspots Considerable disparity between results analysed for child mortality and child stunting – warrants using multiple metrics • All findings based on statistical correlations, not observed causality North West Nigeria: • Water quality (access to protected sources) is the primary water- related poverty correlate. 1% improvement is associated with a 1.1% decrease in child mort. rates • Secondary evidence: Irrigation has been beneficial as well as water access • Education: 1yr improvement in average schooling attainment is associated with a 0.6% decrease in child mort. rates. CSIRO.
  50. 50. Outcomes: variation between hotspots Utility of the Poverty Water poverty Non-water TARWR Hotspot Measure of poverty variables poverty variables variable Water access Moderate – North west Unprotected water Education All three metrics child mortality Nigeria Irrigation Livestock only TARWR Central Mali Education Limited – not and the Inner Child mort. only Unprotected water Livestock significant Delta Limited – child East Burkina Unprotected water Education All three metrics morbidity only, Faso Dams Environ. damage contrary signs Education Population East Nigeria and Limited – child Irrigation density north Wealth index only mortality only, Dams Malaria Cameroon contrary signs Drought risk Environ. damage South and Access to towns Limited – central Nigeria Education All three metrics Unprotected water contrary signs, (‘wealth Electricity CSIRO. small effect hotspot’) Telephones
  51. 51. WP5: Intervention potential BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  52. 52. AgWat & poverty • Sample agricultural problems: – access to water – poor soil fertility – pests – crop diseases – lack of inputs – access to markets • Improvements needed in: – Awareness raising, information and communication – Training and capacity building – Equipment – Legal and administrative frameworks – Finances – Cooperation and information exchange BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  53. 53. Physical interventions Source: UNESCO Adapt demand to water supply Conservation tillage and conservation agriculture (photosensitivity, better decision making currently not possible in semi-arid conditions of for sowing, extensivity), West and Center Africa (very strong competition with other crop residues uses) Adapt supply to crop demand (runoff control Intensification does not enhance RUE, except and water harvesting, rooting) through organic matter inputs. Enhancing tolerance to supply-demand gap in Supplemental irrigation during short dry-spells and deficit (rooting management, drought beginnings of humid seas in intensive farming resistance) or excess (drainage tolerancy) only BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  54. 54. SENEGAL à BAKEL 16.74 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1 I22 3 4 5 J2 6 7 Flow predictions 13.95 22 MAN TALI 23 AN 24 25 26 27 NIGER à 15 ULIKOURO 18 28 KO 16 17 19 20 21 11.16 SE G E LIN U 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 latitude 8.37 50 51 52 53 54 FOMI 55 56 43 44 45 H5 46 47 48 49 ² 5.58 • Predictions in August for Sept-Oct rainfall used 64 78 65 79 66 80 67 81 68 82 69 83 G5 70 84 57 71 58 72 59 73 60 74 61 75 62 76 63 77 2.79 to predict flow data 92 93 94 95 96 0 97 98 500 85 1000 km 86 87 88 89 90 91 0 -2.79 • Used for Manantali dam in Senegal. Extension to -21.09 -18.28 -15.47 -12.66 -9.84 -7.03 -4.22 -1.40 longitude 1.41 4.22 7.04 9.85 12.66 15.47 Niger river upstream of Inner Delta Figure 1 : Location of Bakel in Senegal basin and Koulikouro in Niger and zones used for predictions in • Spatiotemportal uncertainty for rainfall the Arpege model predictions (7 days feasible) 3000 3000 3000 m3/s fleuve SENEGAL à Bakel m3/s calage m3/s calage calage 2500 2500 2500 2000 2000 2000 1500 1500 1500 1000 1000 1000 500 prévu = f ( J2 ) 500 prévu = f ( G5 ) 500 prévu = f ( H5 ) observé année observé observé année prévu en temps réel année 0 prévu en temps réel 0 prévu en temps réel 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 fleuve NIGER à Koulikouro 5000 calage 5000 m3/s calage m3/s 4000 4000 3000 3000 2000 2000 1000 prévu = f ( G5 ) 1000 prévu = f ( I2 ) observé année observé année 0 0 prévu en temps réel 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Modèle : ARPEGE 3 forcé Modèle : ARPEGE 4.6 forcé Modèle : ARPEGE 4.5 couplé Figure 2 : results for natural river flow in sept-oct at Bakel in Senegal river basin and Koulikoro in Niger river basin, obtained from the successive versions of ARPEGE BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  55. 55. Future threats BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  56. 56. Climate change modelling • High uncertainty • Increase in T°C, in variability and extreme events, later start of rainy season, HADCM2 – A2 scenario Variability of discharges for some basins near 2080 in regard dry spells, and of the average 1966-1995 overall more rain in Central part of WA & decrease in West • Variation in yields BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  57. 57. Water development and IWRM • Dam building – Impact on local people – Impact d/s – Against scientific advice BFP NIGER Niger Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  58. 58. Initial conclusions • Water and poverty: complex relation, yet to be proved… • Large potential for WPr improvements but above 800mm rainfall, water rarely a limiting factor. Under 800mm rainfall, water is only one variable. Others more significant • Difficult to implement (weak economy, reliance on aid, diversity of ethnicities/languages, insecurity). • Improvements in water management need to be accompanied by institutional and cultural changes to support them. Also investment, markets, microfinance… Easier to import cheap products than invest in national agriculture? • Large potential for irrigation (x 000s ha), rainfed agriculture, livestock, integrated systems (fisheries, agroforestry) • Large scale hydraulic investment – complicate situation not opposite… BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  59. 59. Further insights • Wider causes of poverty need to be addressed – Eg. impacts of improvements in education • Literacy improvements should also alleviate demographic pressure and future water « stress » BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
  60. 60. Thank you for your attention BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU

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