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Nile Basin Focal Project

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Presented at the Basin Focal Project Review meeting in Cali, Colombia from 1-5 Feb, 2008

Presented at the Basin Focal Project Review meeting in Cali, Colombia from 1-5 Feb, 2008

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  • 1. Nile Basin Focal Project j Review of Plans IWMI–ILRI- NBI- ENTRO-World Fish Consortium by Supported by: CPWF 02/02/2008, Cali Supported by: CPWF
  • 2. Introduction The Nile Basin: Some statistics • River: Longest river in the world world, 6,670km; 3,400,000 km² • Basin countries: Burundi Burundi, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, DR Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda • Population: riparian 360M, basin exceeds 180M 02/02/2008, Cali Supported by: CPWF
  • 3. Importance of the Nile – The current dependence of countries • The D/s complete dependence • For U/s as an opportunity to overcome poverty – Ecosystem y • Important ecosystem functions such as wetland, fisheries, recession agriculture, … – Potentials • Great hydropower to overcome energy shortage • Significant irrigation potential • Significant potential to improve rainfed • Scope for flood defense • Saving f S i of water and potential of overall productivity i t d t ti l f ll d ti it increase 02/02/2008, Cali Supported by: CPWF
  • 4. Key Problems : BFP Related Nile t Aswan = 84 1BMC Nil at A 84.1BMC Atbara = 11.1BMC Blue Nile at Khartoum = 48.3BMC White Nile at Khartoum = 26.0BMC About 86% comes from Eastern Nile, Ethiopia Nile 02/02/2008, Cali Supported by: CPWF
  • 5. Key Problems : BFP Related • Water, Food and Poverty: Food Crises, Famine & Disaster related to water Drought and Disaster Affected Population 25 f ce p p l i n m i n r g ) A e t d o u to ( ilo o %e 20 l 15 Disaster/drought affected population (mil) Proportion affected (%) a 10 5 f 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Year (Ethiopian Calender) Amount of Food Required (MT) 1,800 1 800 Thousands 1,570 1,600 Foor Required (MT) 1,400 1,324 High Rainfall Variability and Flood. 1,200 1,000 798 897 965 819 Kenya 1956-1982 800 707 538 R 600 276 300 Flood: K Fl d Kenya, Sudan, Ethiopia S d Ethi i 400 200 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year Drought and consequential food aid-Ethiopia 02/02/2008, Cali Supported by: CPWF
  • 6. Key Problems : BFP Related Water, Food and Poverty: Agriculture, GDP N ile B as in Ag ric u ltu ra l P o p u la tio n Data: A fric a Developm ent Indic atros , 2006 bas ed on 2004 data –Major occupation is 100 agricultural, with slow 90 ltural Population 80 1979-1981 transformation 70 60 1989-1991 50 1999-2001 40 2003 30 2004 A gricul 20 10 0 t a n ea a i ia da ia yp nd R ny da nd op an it r ,D an Eg ru Ke Su ga hi Er nz Bu go w Et U R Ta on C C ountrie s Im p a c t o f r a in f a ll v a r ia b ilit y o n G D P a n d –GDP and Agricultural A g r ic u lt u r a l G D P g r o w t h 80 25 GDP-correlates to Rainfall 20 60 Variability. Eg. Ethiopia V i bilit E Ethi i 40 15 10 20 5 0 % 0 -5 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 -2 0 -1 0 -4 0 -1 5 ra i n fa ll va ri a b i li ty -2 0 -6 0 G D P g ro w th -2 5 -8 0 A g G D P g ro w th -3 0 year 02/02/2008, Cali Supported by: CPWF
  • 7. Physical and Economic Water Scarcity East Africa Per Capita Physical Water Availablity 2500 Internal Fresh Water Resources per Physical 2000 scarcity: Not m^3) 1500 Capita (m r enough 1000 water. 500 I 0 Economic Burundi Rwanda Somalia Kenya Eritrea Sudan Uganda Ethiopia Tanzania Countries Scarcity: Not infrastructure 7/10 in Nile basin are to make already physically water scarce water available t il bl to people National rainfall map shows better true picture of physical water scarcity eg. Ethiopia: globally not physical scarce, but >50% of Ethiopia is actually physically scarce 02/02/2008, Cali Supported by: CPWF
  • 8. Key Problems : BFP Related Despite the potential, low intervention and water usage eg in irrigation 8,000 8 000 irrigation potential (1000 ha) 7,000 existing irrigation (1000 ha) 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 C t ea a da da n i ia ia yp nd ny da DR op an it r an an Eg ru Ke Su Er hi nz Ug Bu Rw Et Ta Irrigation potential and usage per Nile country (not all are Nile dependent potentials) 02/02/2008, Cali Supported by: CPWF
  • 9. Key Problems : BFP Related • The basin is complex. Keys are: – t find a b l to fi d balance b tbetween llevel of d t il and l f detail d analysis required and the need to gain an overall picture of water productivity livelihoods water, productivity, livelihoods, and poverty within the basin – How do CP projects and the BFP contribute to solutions in the basin 02/02/2008, Cali Supported by: CPWF
  • 10. The Work Packages Inter-linkages Analysis y Poverty Water Availability Nile BFP Development and And Access Application of Goal and Knowledge Base Objectives Agricultural Water Productivity Institutions Interventions 02/02/2008, Cali Supported by: CPWF
  • 11. Work & Outputs Phase I: Inception – D fi d detail study sites recommendations Defined d t il t d it d ti – Database of gathered literature – W lk Walkover/basin t /b i tour report t – Established consortium of implementing and advisory groups d i – Detailed project design document including impact pathway gant chart, milestones task pathway, chart milestones, sharing, … 02/02/2008, Cali Supported by: CPWF
  • 12. Phase II. Implementation Phase • Poverty Analysis (WP1) – Literature review report on poverty and vulnerability – GIS products and shape files – Database on poverty – Poverty and vulnerability map – Spatial information and maps on population-poverty, production systems-poverty, poverty and vulnerability, d ti t t t d l bilit etc – Tools for disseminating spa a information sys e oo s o d sse a g spatial o a o system together with WP6 02/02/2008, Cali Supported by: CPWF
  • 13. Phase II (cont’d) • Water Availability and Access(WP2) – Literature review report on basin information (from master plans, published and grey literature, …) literature ) – Rapid assessment of regional and global data sets DataWP2.doc – Product and report on water use for current and future trends – Simulated information (for data scarce locations) – Water accounting report for various production system – Water availability information • Major water components disaggregated spatiall and temporall (basin ater spatially temporally and sub-basin; monthly, seasonal, annual) • Variability and trends at key locations • Water availability and scarcity maps y y p • Maps of various types of drought and their indices 02/02/2008, Cali Supported by: CPWF
  • 14. Phase II (cont’d) • Agricultural Water Productivity (WP3) – Literature review report on production systems (rainfed, irrigated, pastoral, fisheries, pastoral fisheries wetlands including interactions) based on national and regional statistical data, databases and reports on water productivity, yields, value of products. Also based on existing CP projects, FAO, NBI, ENTRO, … – Rapid assessment report signifying on physical and economic water productivity per unit of water depleted by evapotranspiration and other uses – R Report on analysis of spatially di t l i f ti ll disaggregated areas b t d based on d poverty, productivity and pressures – Knowledge of the basin based on how water availability and access impact livelihoods, vulnerability and growth opportunities at and livelihoods across different scales and uses – Information package on water productivity, livelihood, poverty and their interactions 02/02/2008, Cali Supported by: CPWF
  • 15. Phase II (cont’d) • Institutional Analysis(WP4) – Literature review report on • National and transnational policies, Economy-wide policies/institutions macro- p , y p economic issues, trade. • Policies/institutions affecting investment in water resources, allocation and use of water • Conflicts (origin, prediction, prevention and resolution) • I l di identification of: Diff Including id tifi ti f Difference b t between written policy/law and practice and itt li /l d ti d why; Gaps in the policy or legislative framework; Institutions that can play key roles in generation and dissemination of knowledge – comprehensive and detailed water related institutional analysis and trends in the countries and the basin – Detail analysis report on key areas where policy/institutional constraints affect poverty, or reallocation of water – PRA (Participatory rural appraisal) report to understand the interplay of institutions at various scale – Report on institutional and policy change needs and on good practices for such changes – Information product on Institutional setup across countries, basin level, and actors. actors Engagement of advisory panel NBI panel, NBI, 02/02/2008, Cali Supported by: CPWF
  • 16. Phase II (cont’d) • Intervention Analysis (WP5) – Literature review report on: intervention types under various production systems; sub basins; success and failures; intervention sub-basins; scales; technical, policy and institutional factors;… – Mapped intervention types – Detail analysis report on performance of interventions interventions, – Models for evaluating quantitative impacts of interventions – Special study report on recommendations report on suits of interventions, necessary mechanisms and implications – Tradeoffs analysis, ranking and modeling result report to identify high potential interventions and their impacts – Problem tree and impact p p pathway report y p 02/02/2008, Cali Supported by: CPWF
  • 17. Phase II (cont’d) • Development and application of the knowledge base (WP6) –IInventory report on data sets t t d t t – Common share point platform for all datasets – Adaptation and customization of p p previous knowledge g product (GIAM, Poverty Map, Population Map,…) – Communication mechanism amongst core team, advisory panel and stakeholders (working meeting, workshops, t i i k h training,…)) – Communication platform (newsletter, D-group, etc) among BFPs and COPs – Report on analysis of impact of the project on boundary partners (short term) – Synthesis workshop report 02/02/2008, Cali Supported by: CPWF
  • 18. Expected Nile BFP Achievement and Beneficiaries – Enhanced awareness and understanding of the problems in the basin – Well developed GIS supported information and database system for the basin that can be used by all stakeholders t k h ld – Development of scientific methodologies and methods of analysis for population, p y p p poverty, y production systems, policy and intuitions for Nile Water Governance – Highly interacting basin communicate and effective networks – Matured web-site, D-groups, and media serving as a common pool for Nile knowledge system 02/02/2008, Cali Supported by: CPWF
  • 19. Partners Implementing partners • IWMI: lead institution • ILRI: leads poverty analysis, contributes to WPs • NBI: leads institution, contributes to WPs • ENTRO: contributes to WPs • World Fish: major role in WP4, contributes to other WPs • CPWF Nile B i C di t Nil Basin Coordinator Consultative group: • Nile CoM, Nile TAC, NBI 7 SVPs, ENSAP and NELSAP Projects, FAO, ASARECA, Universities, ARIs, ASARECA Universities ARIs CGIAR centers NGOs … centers, NGOs, Special Study Team: • Consultants, professionals, professors, … undertaking specific studies eg. country study, specific competence area study, etc Existing project and programs: • 4 CP projects: CP37, CP19, CP28, CP36 • Many non CP projects such as BMZ-Livestock and CC projects (IWMI), RiPPLE (ODI) SAKSS (ILRI IFPRI) World Bank and AfDB projects (ODI), (ILRI-IFPRI), 02/02/2008, Cali Supported by: CPWF
  • 20. Beneficiaries • Local and Sub-Sector Institutions: Agriculture (Crop Fisheries Livestock (Crop, Fisheries, Livestock, Irrigation), DPP, Hydropower, Environment, … • National Institutions: Country Basin Authorities, NGOs, … , , • Regional Institutions/Community: NBI-SVP and SAP; ASARECA, IGAD, NEPAD, …. ; , , , • Global: CGIAR, Donors, 02/02/2008, Cali Supported by: CPWF
  • 21. Conclusion • The Nile Basin is complex river basin and highly variable in terms of water availability, development, use and management t • There is no comprehensive and adequate information system y • There are quite a lot of actors in the Basin but not well networked and interacting • The Nile Basin still possesses high potential for development, but require breakthrough in win-win cooperation • O t t of Nile BFP could significantly contribute t Outputs f Nil ld i ifi tl t ib t to establishing a consorted research efforts and knowledge base linking directly to development 02/02/2008, Cali Supported by: CPWF
  • 22. Thank Y Th k You 02/02/2008, Cali Supported by: CPWF