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Mekong BFP Review

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This was presented at teh Basin Focal Project Review meeting in Cali, Colombia from 1-5 Feb, 2008

This was presented at teh Basin Focal Project Review meeting in Cali, Colombia from 1-5 Feb, 2008

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Mekong BFP Review Mekong BFP Review Presentation Transcript

  • Mekong BFP Review Mac Kirby, Mohammed Mainuddin, CSIRO Matt Chadwick Chayanis Krittasudthacheewa Eric Chadwick, Krittasudthacheewa, Kemp-Bendict, SEI David Clayton, MRC Cali workshop, September 2007
  • Outline • Brief introduction to the Mekong M k • Overview of issues • What can change? • BFP products & p dissemination • Data sources • General approach • What worked and what didn’t
  • The Mekong China Myanmar • 6 countries, 4 in Mekong countries Laos Luang Prabang River Agreement, China Thailand and Myanmar observers • ~60 m people, majority Tonle Sap Cambodia Vietnam rural 500 km Phnom • ~4,200 km long; 795,000 km2; 495,000 mcm discharge (495 km3)
  • The Mekong in the CP - wettest basin 1.2 supply limit capacity lim it li it 1 0.8 ET/ETo 0.6 Indus Volta Mekong Ganges 0.4 Yellow Sao Francisco Limpopo N iger 1600 1400 Nile 1200 0.2 Rai mm 1000 Karkheh in, 800 600 400 0 200 0 co M o g s w h Ka s lta r Fr ile ge p on he ge cis du llo po 0 0.5 1 1.5 Vo o N an ek rk Ye Ni In an m G Li Sa P/ETo
  • Water use accounts - flow Luang Prabang total outflow comparison observed modelled Muong Ngoy obs 40000 8000 est 35000 7000 30000 6000 Flow, mcm 25000 Flo mcm 20000 5000 15000 4000 ow, 10000 3000 5000 0 2000 1 16 31 46 61 76 91 106 121 136 151 166 181 1000 Months 0 1 15 29 43 57 71 85 99 113 127 141 155 169 183 197 Months Ubon Ub local flow obs China local flow calc Kratie and Luang Prabang Luang Prabang 140000 Kratie 10000 9000 120000 8000 100000 Flow, mcm 7000 80000 Flow, mcm 6000 60000 5000 Myanmar 40000 4000 20000 3000 Laos 0 1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109121133145157169181 2000 Months 1000 Luang Prabang 0 1 15 29 43 57 71 85 99 113 127 141 155 169 183 Phnom Penh total outflow comparison Months total flow obs" Thailand 120000 total flow calc" observed fow 100000 Tonle Sap flow model predicted flow Flow, mcm 35000 80000 Tonle Sap 30000 60000 25000 40000 20000 Cambodia 20000 15000 Vietnam Flow, mcm /mo 10000 0 m 5000 500 km Phnom 1 17 33 49 65 81 97 113 129 145 161 177 0 Months -5000 1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109 121 133 145 157 169 181 -10000 -15000 -20000 -25000 Months
  • Hydrology - floods • Extensive in Cambodia and delta • St llarge volumes Store l • Also much storage during peak flows, in main channel, tributaries and wetlands (Songkhram stores large volumes, for example)
  • Water use • Upland China • Forested Laos g generates most runoff • Drier, cropped NE Thailand • Irrigated delta Overall water use
  • Crop production - rice • Based on national statistics (are they all ( y measured the same?) • Rice average yield • Is Th il d l ? I Thailand low? • Increases everywhere? 6.00 Laos 5.00 on/ha Thailand 4.00 4 00 Rice yield, to 3.00 Cambodia 2.00 Vietnam 1.00 Vietnam Central 0.00 highlands 1990 1995 2000 2005 Vietnam Mekong River Delta Year
  • Gross value of production • GVP per capita - also have per hectare etc • No increase? 120 Laos GVP of rice, $/capita 100 Thailand 80 60 Cambodia 40 Vietnam 20 Vietnam Central highlands 0 Vietnam Mekong 1990 1995 2000 2005 River Delta Year
  • Water productivity - rice • Based on estimated ET ( (FAO crop coefficient p approach) • Thailand Cambodia low? 0.800 Laos 3 ductivity, kg/m 0.600 Thailand 0.400 Cambodia Water prod Vietnam 0.200 Vietnam Central highlands 0.000 1990 1995 2000 2005 Vietnam Mekong River Delta Year
  • Other crops • Sugar and maize • Sugar - Thailand high? 6.00 Laos aos 5.00 Maize yield, ton/ha Thailand 4.00 3.00 Cambodia 2.00 Vietnam 1.00 1 00 Vietnam Central 0.00 highlands 1990 1995 2000 2005 Vietnam Mekong River Delta Year 80 Laos Sugarcane yield, ton/ha 60 Thailand 40 Cambodia Vietnam 20 Vietnam Central 0 highlands 1990 1995 2000 2005 Vietnam Mekong River Delta Year
  • Livestock • Not increasing as p percentage or per capita g p p 100 GVP of livestock as % Ag Laos 80 Thailand a 60 Cambodia 40 Vietnam 20 Vietnam Central highlands 0 Vietnam Mekong 1990 1995 2000 2005 River Delta Year 50 Laos apita 40 GVP of livestock, $/ca Thailand 30 Cambodia 20 Vietnam 10 P Vietnam Central highlands 0 Vietnam Mekong 1990 1995 2000 2005 River Delta Year
  • Fisheries • Very important inland fisheries - especially capture fisheries Tonle Sap and rapidly increasing aquaculture in delta • Estimates of yield unclear - consumption estimates regarded as more reliable and are 2-3 x production estimates. 2- • However, few trend estimates for consumption. • Current growth rate unclear (uncertain estimates), but maybe 0.5 m tonnes last ten years mainly aquaculture 05 years, 1400000 1200000 Change in measurements 1000000 All fish, tonnes 800000 600000 400000 200000 0 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Laos Thailand Cambodia Vietnam VCH VMD
  • Fisheries - production 40000 400000 Cambodia 35000 Laos 350000 30000 300000 Aquaculture Production, 25000 Capture 250000 Production, 20000 200000 15000 150000 10000 100000 5000 50000 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Vietnam 2000 Other farm product ed Production, ton Farm shrim ed p 250000 Farm fish ed Thailand Production, 000 t 1500 Sea product 200000 Captured Inland product 1000 Produciton, 150000 100000 500 50000 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year
  • Fisheries - as proportion of total 1500 1,000 Cambodia 800 Laos GVP, million $ GVP, million 1000 600 400 500 200 0 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Year Year Crop Livestock Fish low estimate Crop Livestock Fisheries Fish - high estimate 5000 Thailand 5000 Vietnam 4000 GVP, millio $ 4000 on GVP, million n 3000 3000 2000 2000 1000 1000 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 0 Year 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Crop Livestock Fish low estimate Crop Year Livestock Inland fisheries Total Thai fish , Mekong agriculture
  • Poverty related indicators These data were classified by equal interval value. We y q are testing with the different classifications as well (such as the data distribution) No agri land ownership (%) agri. Non-permanent Non permanent structured Lack of food security (%) house (%) Non-permanent structured house (%)- classified by four quantiles No motorcycle (%) No TV (%) No cow and buffalo (%)
  • Flooded area (%) Drought Indicator- April Water constraints NPP departure from longterm mean April NPP No access to safe water within 150m Malaria Incidence No access to sanitation-toilet (%) (%) (cases per 1000 people)
  • Mekong issues • Population ~60 m, +13m (18 %) to 2015, +58m (80 %) to 2050 • Economic development, increasing energy demands - upstream hydropower development • Increasing food consumption, changed food g p , g demands • Climate change, IPCC 2001 2020s 2050s 2080s Temp change, °C +1 +2 +3 Rain change, % +2 +4 +7 Shorter more intense wet season longer more season, intense dry season Most systems (food & fibre production, ecosystems, health) vulnerable • Fisheries and delta irrigation fully exploited? • Water quality / saline intrusion delta DEM
  • Mekong issues 2 Dam development Changing land use, shifting cultivation, sustainability, sedimentation Seasonal water Agricultural and dam shortage, poor soils, development, downstream low rice productivity impacts Fish & environmental impacts of upstream, p p , Salinisation, water competition land quality, highly developed
  • What can change? (caution 1) • History of Cambodia - “rulers and great powers came and went; some were benign, some oppressive; they fought their battles and intrigues largely remote from the daily lives of the common people, but could people nevertheless greatly influence the common plight; the th people lived their lives as l li d th i li best they could in spite of it all...” • Be humble and realistic
  • What can change? (caution 2) • Great change occurring anyway • Growing population • Shift to urban • Rising living standards (uneven) • Trade and communications • Hydropower development
  • What can change? Small scale • No single solution •L l Local democratisation of water governance • Rice - fish systems delta and elsewhere - Laos • Crop management - fertilisers
  • Fisheries growth prospects? • Demand will increase due to population increase and diet change • Expected increase ~ 1 m tonnes by 2020, 3.5 m tonnes by 2050 • Current growth rate unclear (uncertain estimates), but maybe 0.5 m tonnes last ten years, mainly aquaculture 1400000 1200000 Change in measurements 1000000 All fish, tonnes 800000 600000 400000 200000 0 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Laos Thailand Cambodia Vietnam VCH VMD
  • What can change? Medium scale • Balanced assessment of developments - Pak Mun Mun, Khone Falls • Agricultural productivity - low in Cambodia (soils, varieties, fertilisation, management) and Thailand (soils, ?fertilisation) ?f tili ti )
  • Crop production, g growth prospects? p p • Demand will increase with growing population • There is growth, but Thailand growth and Cambodia could do better with water (Thailand) and fertilisers • + 4m tonnes rice Thailand in high agriculture / irrigation development scenario - but would it destroy Tonle Sap fish? 6.00 Laos 5.00 /ha Thailand Rice yield, ton/ 4.00 3.00 Cambodia 2.00 Vietnam 1.00 Vietnam C t l Vi t Central 0.00 highlands 1990 1995 2000 2005 Vietnam Mekong River Delta Year
  • Per capita • Based on national statistics for yield and Mekong social atlas for population • No or very modest increase, except Vietnam - export 1200 Rice productio kg/capita Laos 1000 Thailand 800 on, 600 Cambodia 400 Vietnam 200 Vietnam Central 0 highlands 1990 1995 2000 2005 Vietnam Mekong Vi t M k River Delta Year
  • Livestock growth prospects • There will be a shift to meat (especially Thailand) • Not increasing as percentage or per capita 100 GV of livestock as % Ag Laos 80 Thailand 60 Cambodia 40 Vietnam 20 VP Vietnam Central highlands 0 Vietnam Mekong 1990 1995 2000 2005 River Delta 50 Year Laos apita 40 GVP of livestock, $/ca Thailand 30 Cambodia 20 Vietnam 10 P Vietnam Central highlands 0 Vietnam Mekong 1990 1995 2000 2005 River Delta Year
  • What can change? Large scale • Strengthening the Mekong River Agreement and other regional agreements. • Strengthening the ( (ineffectual?) MRC ) • Regional approaches to water, land and , energy
  • Dam development Phnom Penh reach China Increased dam storage for hydropower - maximum development scenario of MRC: ~ 23,000 mcm China; 27,000 Thailand, Laos, Vietnam Myanmar Laos Reduces flood peaks increases dry season flows peaks, Luang Prabang Impact on flood dependent ecosystems and fisheries? Thailand Observed flow Phnom Penh Calculated flow 100000 Tonle Sap 90000 80000 Cambodia Vietnam 70000 500 km Phnom 60000 Flow, mc 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1 12 23 34 45 56 67 78 89 100 111 122 133 144 155 166 Months
  • Dams and agriculture develop p Phnom Penh reach Increased dam storage for hydropower and increased China areas of irrigated agriculture (one scenario only) f d l ( l ) Dry season flows not increased as much as dam Myanmar development only - water diverted for irrigation Laos ~ 4m Tonnes extra rice vs impact on flood dependent Luang Prabang ecosystems and fisheries? Thailand Observed flow Phnom Penh Calculated flow 100000 Tonle Sap 90000 80000 Cambodia Vietnam 70000 500 km Phnom 60000 Flow, mc 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1 12 23 34 45 56 67 78 89 100 111 122 133 144 155 166 Months
  • Climate change Phnom Penh reach China Increased intensity of wet season Greater flood peaks Myanmar Laos More destructive - but also may help preserve flood Luang Prabang dependent ecosystems and fisheries Thailand 140000 Current Tonle Sap Clim change ate 120000 Cambodia Vietnam 100000 500 km m/m Phnom flow, mcm 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 0 50 100 150 200 months
  • Tensions will remain • Upstream - downstream •D l Development - t environment • Hydropower - fossil fuel • Big power - sharing river • Ri h - poor ( Rich (access) ) • No easy answers
  • What can change? International? • “1000 projects” • Wh t are the big What th bi issues? • What are the gaps? • Coordination • S th i Synthesis
  • BFP products and dissemination • Synthesis reports and maps d • Agriculture • Fish • Poverty • Synthesis
  • Synthesis • Poverty based on a range of indices - physical and social Probability that poverty is low, medium and high
  • Dissemination • Reports • Maps and datasets • Workshops and p visits • Partnership in networks (SUMERNET) • Via the MRC (partner)
  • Impacts • Follow on AusAID climate change project • Invited to comment on AusAID strategy for the Mekong, and new AusAID water and climate strategy (all regions) • Invited to do analogous integrated work at smaller scale in Krishna basin (ACIAR) a a ba ( ) • SUMERNET • Potential beyond this?
  • Data sources • Many….. Jan Feb Mar Apr • Climate, river flow Climate • Agriculture, fisheries • Human, poverty p y May Jun Jul Aug • International datasets • MRC - social atlas, hydrology, water useSep hydrology Oct Nov Dec D • National databases - p poverty, agriculture, y, g , fish • Research literature Monthly NPP (Average for 1982-1993, g/m2/month) > 200 < 200 • Grey literature < 175 < 150 < 125 < 100 < 75 < 50
  • General approach • Water use account • Poverty survey • Food productivity - actual, actual constraints • Poverty mapping and opportunities • Linking poverty to food and water • Trends, constraints and opportunities pp
  • Poverty - water modelling • Bayesian network model t k d l Higher incidence of • Low penetration p poverty y Interested in areas with (High: 42%>26% ) cropland affected by drought improved water access Given low water supplies Lower incidence of poverty Interested in areas with (Low: 40%>23%) cropland affected by drought • High penetration Given high water supplies improved water i d t access
  • What worked and what didn t didn’t • Did….. • Basin focus and overview • Mix of expertise - physical to social, systems • Basin tour - very important • Participants with direct, long term experience • Water accounts • Livelihood assets approach to poverty, with water based assets poverty included in Bayesian model • Different issues and solutions in different areas • Integrated issues - eg energy and water • Didn’t Didn t….. • Water poverty • Who is it for - CPWF or basin