Impact of Climate Change on
    Ganga River Basin


              A. K. Gosain
    Professor of Civil Engineering
 Indian ...
Presentation layout
 Methodology used – SWAT model
 SWAT implementation on Indian basins
 for climate change impact assess...
SWAT Hydrological model
 SWRRB - Early 80's -Modified CREAMS
 SWAT - Early 90's -Modified SWRRB
           Reach Routing S...
Model Objectives
 Predict the impact of man-made
 changes & management practices
 Predict the impact of global warming
   ...
Can map wide range of features

  Pond & reservoir storage
  Crop growth & irrigation
  Groundwater flow
  Reach routing
 ...
Major inputs
 Weather
   Daily Precipitation
   Max - Min Temperature
   Solar Radiation
   Wind Speed & Relative Humidity...
Crop Growth
Generic model - Parameterized by plant
database used by EPIC and WEPP
Phenological Development - Daily heat
un...
Model Output
 Model outputs include all the water balance
 component at various levels i.e., basin, subbasin or
 watershed...
Initial National Communication to
 UNFCCC
Coordinated by MoEF
A large number of groups involved to
undertake studies in va...
Objectives of the Study
To quantify the impact of the climate
change on the water resources of the
country
Identify Hotspo...
Data Used for Modeling
Contour: 100 m interval - 1:250,000
DEM: 1km grid, generated using ArcView
Land use: 1:2M USGS
Soil...
River Basins Modeled
Annual mean water balance for Control and GHG climate
scenarios in different river basins
                                ...
Percent change in mean annual water balance
                                                for Control and GHG climate sc...
Assumptions and Coarseness of
the Data Used
Daily RCM data not reconciled for its
accuracy
Landuse has been assumed to be ...
Ganga River Basin Annual water balance
                components




             1800                                   ...
Monthly water balance components
                         for Ganga river basin



             350                       ...
Change in Monthly water balance
                           components for Ganga river basin
             40               ...
Sub-basin Water Balance
              7000
                              components for Ganga Basin
                      ...
Ganga River – Annual Peak
                       18000                                                                    ...
Events exceeding arbitrary thresholds in
Ganga River Basin



   Discharge         Control   GHG     Control   GHG
      (...
Flow Duration Curve for Ganga River
for Control and GHG scenarios
                                               Ganga Riv...
Future Work Required
 Incorporation of the data on glaciers
 Mapping and incorporation of present
 manmade interventions
 ...
Thank you
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Impact of Climate Change on Ganga River basin

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Presented at the 2nd Phase Planning and Review Workshop of the Indo-Ganges Basin Focal Project, 24-25 February, 2009, Haryana, India

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Impact of Climate Change on Ganga River basin

  1. 1. Impact of Climate Change on Ganga River Basin A. K. Gosain Professor of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology Delhi
  2. 2. Presentation layout Methodology used – SWAT model SWAT implementation on Indian basins for climate change impact assessment Detailed results of Ganga basin Gaps in the study
  3. 3. SWAT Hydrological model SWRRB - Early 80's -Modified CREAMS SWAT - Early 90's -Modified SWRRB Reach Routing Structure Flexible Watershed Configurations TAES-IIT Delhi MoA - 1996, to collaborate in further development of the model
  4. 4. Model Objectives Predict the impact of man-made changes & management practices Predict the impact of global warming water, sediment, nutrient and pesticide yields generate alternate scenarios conduct vulnerability assessment
  5. 5. Can map wide range of features Pond & reservoir storage Crop growth & irrigation Groundwater flow Reach routing Nutrient & pesticide loading Water transfer
  6. 6. Major inputs Weather Daily Precipitation Max - Min Temperature Solar Radiation Wind Speed & Relative Humidity Terrain Landuse Soil
  7. 7. Crop Growth Generic model - Parameterized by plant database used by EPIC and WEPP Phenological Development - Daily heat unit accumulation Potential Growth - Interception of solar radiation (LAI, solar radiation) Growth Constraints - Water, temperature, nitrogen & phosphorous stress
  8. 8. Model Output Model outputs include all the water balance component at various levels i.e., basin, subbasin or watershed level and at intervals of daily, monthly or annual surface runoff evapotranspiration lateral flow recharge percolation sediment yield Nutrients
  9. 9. Initial National Communication to UNFCCC Coordinated by MoEF A large number of groups involved to undertake studies in various sectors Water Resources entrusted to IIT Delhi The communication has been made by the MoEF to UNFCC
  10. 10. Objectives of the Study To quantify the impact of the climate change on the water resources of the country Identify Hotspots Identify Adaptation & Coping strategies
  11. 11. Data Used for Modeling Contour: 100 m interval - 1:250,000 DEM: 1km grid, generated using ArcView Land use: 1:2M USGS Soil: 1:5M FAO Drainage: 1:250,000 Weather: Data generated by the “Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction” U.K. at a resolution of 0.44° X 0.44° latitude by longitude (HadRM2) from IITM, Pune
  12. 12. River Basins Modeled
  13. 13. Annual mean water balance for Control and GHG climate scenarios in different river basins Trends in Waterbalance Components (Control and GHG Climate Scenarios) 1800 1600 1400 1200 Value (mm) 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Cauvery Brahmani Godavari Krishna Luni Mahanadi Mahi Narmada Pennar Tapi Ganga Sabarmati Rain (Control) Rain (GHG) Runoff (Control) Runoff (GHG) AET (Control) AET (GHG)
  14. 14. Percent change in mean annual water balance for Control and GHG climate scenarios Change from Current to GHG Scenario (%) 40 Rainfall Runoff ET 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 Krishna Luni Tapi Mahi Ganga Cauvery Pennar Brahmani Godavari Narmada Mahanadi Sabarmati River Basins
  15. 15. Assumptions and Coarseness of the Data Used Daily RCM data not reconciled for its accuracy Landuse has been assumed to be same Water bodies including reservoirs could not be incorporated at this stage due to lack of data
  16. 16. Ganga River Basin Annual water balance components 1800 1800 Control Scenario Precipitation Precipitation GHG Scenario 1600 ET 1600 ET Water Yield Water Yield 1400 1400 1200 1200 Value (mm) Value (mm) 1000 1000 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 0 0 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052 2053 2054 2055 2056 2057 2058 2059 2060 Year Year
  17. 17. Monthly water balance components for Ganga river basin 350 350 Control Precipitation GHG Precipitation 300 Scenario ET 300 ET Water Yield Water Yield 250 250 Value (mm) Value (mm) 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 Jun Nov Jul May Jan Aug Oct Mar Apr Feb Dec Sep Jun Nov Jul May Jan Aug Oct Mar Apr Dec Feb Sep Year Year
  18. 18. Change in Monthly water balance components for Ganga river basin 40 Precipitation Change in monthly water balance for Control and GHG climate scenarios ET 30 Water Yield 20 Value (mm) 10 0 May Mar Nov Jan Jun Aug Jul Apr Feb Sep Oct Dec -10 -20 180 Change (%) in monthly water balance Precipitation 160 for Control and GHG climate scenarios ET -30 140 Water Yield Year 120 100 Value (%) 80 60 40 20 0 Jul May Nov Jan Jun Mar Dec Oct Feb Aug Sep Apr -20 -40 Year
  19. 19. Sub-basin Water Balance 7000 components for Ganga Basin Precipitation Control Scenario ET 6000 Water Yield 5000 Values (mm) 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 7000 Precipitation Subbasin GHG Scenario ET 6000 Water Yield 5000 Values (mm) 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 Subbasin
  20. 20. Ganga River – Annual Peak 18000 18000 Control Scenario Annual daily peak discharge Annual daily peak discharge Subbasin 11 Subbasin 11 GHG Scenario 16000 16000 14000 14000 12000 12000 (cumecs) (cumecs) 10000 10000 8000 8000 6000 6000 4000 4000 2000 2000 0 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 Year Num ber Year Num ber 45000 45000 Control Scenario Annual daily peak discharge Annual daily peak discharge Subbasin 23 Subbasin 23 GHG Scenario 40000 40000 35000 35000 30000 30000 (cumecs) 25000 (cumecs) 25000 20000 20000 15000 15000 10000 10000 5000 5000 0 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 Year Num ber Year Num ber
  21. 21. Events exceeding arbitrary thresholds in Ganga River Basin Discharge Control GHG Control GHG (cumecs) Ganga Subbasins Sub11 Sub11 Sub23 Sub23 Discharge>10000 6 7 >20000 1 5 Discharge>12000 1 6 >30000 0 2
  22. 22. Flow Duration Curve for Ganga River for Control and GHG scenarios Ganga River - Flow Duration Curve 100000 Control 10000 GHG 1000 100 Flow (Cumecs) 10 1 0.1 0.01 0.001 0.0001 0.00001 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % of time flow equal or exceeded Dependa 25% 50% 75% 90% ble Flow (cumecs) Control 4648 716 12.88 0.4394 GHG 3649 754.5 50.5 5.323 Scenario
  23. 23. Future Work Required Incorporation of the data on glaciers Mapping and incorporation of present manmade interventions Generation of coping strategies and scenarios Quantifying the uncertainties of the predictions
  24. 24. Thank you
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