Identifying Water-Poverty Links at plot level

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Presented at the BFP Special session in the 13th World Water Congress, Montpelier, France

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Identifying Water-Poverty Links at plot level

  1. 1. Identifying Water Poverty Links Water-Poverty At Plot Level Lisa Bennett i Stephen Vosti SFRB Team Center for Natural Resources Policy Analysis -- CNRPA September 2008 UCD/Embrapa
  2. 2. Presentation Overview • Quick Overview of the SFRB • Application of Land Use Systems Analysis • Usefulness for Research • Usefulness for Policy Guidance UCD/Embrapa
  3. 3. Water Availability UCD/Embrapa
  4. 4. Spatial Distribution of Rural Poverty UCD/Embrapa
  5. 5. Key Objectives of Hydro-Economic Models • Understand Farmer Behavior and Outcomes – Cropping patterns, input mix, water use – Income – Surface water and groundwater availability • Predict the Effects of Proposed Policy and other Changes on Farmer Behavior/Outcomes • Inform Policy • Modeling at Three Spatial Extents – Plot-Level LUS Models – Buriti Vermelho Models – Basin-Wide Models UCD/Embrapa
  6. 6. One Tool -- LUS Analysis y • Focus on Land Use Systems (LUS) – Multi-year duration – Different intermediate and end uses • Estimate Economic Performance – Discounted streams of input costs and product revenues • Technical coefficients and input/output prices – Calculate economic returns to key factors of production • Land, labor , • Estimate the Environmental Effects – E.g., carbon stocks, water use • Estimate the Sociocultural Effects – E.g., food security, labor requirements • Highlight Institutional Impediments to LUS Adoption • Compare Across LUS – Trade-Offs/Synergies UCD/Embrapa
  7. 7. Land Use System Analysis • Spatial Resolution, Time Steps, and Temporal Extent – Single parcel of land, specific series of cropping activities, specific production and water use technologies, specific end technologies date – Annual time steps – Multi year duration Multi-year – Different intermediate and end uses Field #1 Year 1 Field #1 Year 2 Field #1 Year 3 Y Field #1 Year 4 Field #1 Year 10 Field #1 Year 15 UCD/Embrapa
  8. 8. Agriculture in the SFRB -- 1991 UCD/Embrapa
  9. 9. Agriculture in the SFRB -- 2004 São Francisco River Basin Harvested Specialty Harvested Grains Crops, 2004 2004 Petrolina Harvested Area (ha) Harvested Area (ha) at Município Level at Município Level None None 1 - 2,000 1 - 2,500 Montes Claros 2,001 - 5,000 2,501 - 10,000 5,001 - 10,000 10,001 - 50,000 10,001 - 20,000 50,001 - 200,000 20,001 - 431,441 200,001 - 401,980 Sete Lagoas Scale 1:9,000,000 Ribeirao das Neves 0 50 100 200 300 Belo Horizonte Betim Kilometers Divinopolis Lambert Azimuthal Equal Area Projection, WGS-84. Map by J A Young, 12 September 2007 UCD/Embrapa
  10. 10. LUS Under Evaluation in Petrolina • S ll S l G t/Sh Small-Scale Goat/Sheep Production P d ti – 46 hectares, rainfed, low-tech, some fodder • Mango Production – Flood Irrigation – 4 hectares, two years annual crop production • Mango Production – Micro-sprinkler g Irrigation – 4 hectares, two years annual crop production UCD/Embrapa
  11. 11. Assessment of Small-Scale Goat/Sheep LUS Labor Requirements Economic Performance Total Family y Ratio of Wage Labor Used Rate paid to NPV of the Excess that Sets NPV (both NPV of the Returns to Family Labor Establish- Operational LUS per Returns to to Zero to Establishment LUS Land that sets NPV ment Phase hectare Family Labor Wage for Day and to Zero Labor Operational $R/ person- $R/ person- Phase) Ph ) $R $R/ha day $R/ha/year day person- -12 0 0 0 16.99 1.00 person- days/ha/ person-days/ days/ha year ha/year 70 6.3 7.8 Water for Irrigation Cost of Cost of Water Employment Water Establishing Establishing Productivity Operational Productivity Irrigation Irrigation Water Use Operational Phase Costs System on System on (kg produced/ (Contracted Labor) (NPV/ 1000m³) the Property the LUS Plot 1000m³) person-days/ha/year 0 1000M3/ $R $R/ha $R/ha/year ha/year $R/ 1000m³ kg/ 1000m³ 0 0 5.5 4 0.00 14.20 UCD/Embrapa
  12. 12. Assessment of Small-Scale Irrigated Mango LUS – Flood Irrigation Economic Performance Labor Requirements Ratio of Operational Rate paid Establishment Total Family Excess Wage that Phase (Family NPV of the to Family (Family Labor Labor Used NPV of the Returns to Returns to Sets NPV Labor and LUS per Labor that and Contracted (Operational LUS Family Land to Zero to Contracted hectare sets NPV Labor) Phase) Labor Wage for Labor) to Zero Day Da Labor $R/ person- $R/ha $R/ Person-days person-days/ $R $R/ha day /year person-day Person-days /ha /ha/year ha/ year 2,512 628 1 31 18.70 1.10 35 138 45 Water for Irrigation Employment Operational Cost of Cost of Phase Water Establishing Establishing Water (Contracted Operational Productivity Irrigation Irrigation Water Use Productivity Labor) Costs (kg produced/ System on the System on the (NPV/ 1000m³) 1000m³) Property Plot person-days/ha/ year 1000M3/ 93 $R $R/ ha $R/ha/ano ha/year $R/ 1000m³ kg/ 1000m³ 553 138 1,177 8.64 2.50 1,424 UCD/Embrapa
  13. 13. Assessment of Small-Scale Irrigated Mango LUS – Micro Sprinklers Economic Performance Labor Requirements Ratio of Rate paid to Operational Wage that g Establishme NPV of the Excess Family Phase Total Family Returns to Sets NPV to nt (Family NPV of the LUS LUS per Returns to Labor that (Family Labor Used Land Zero to Wage Labor and hectare Family Labor sets NPV to Labor and (Operational for Day Contracted Zero Contracted Phase) Labor Labor) Labor) $R/ person- $R/ person- $R $R/ha day $R/ha /year day Person-daysPerson-days person-days/ ha/ 2,897 724 1 36 19.10 1.21 /ha /ha year 44 100 32 Water for Irrigation Cost of Cost of Water Employment Water Establishing Establishing Productivity Operational Productivity Operational Irrigation Irrigation Water Use Costs (kg produced/ Phase System on System on (NPV/ 1000m³) (Contracted the Property the Plot 1000m³) Labor) $R $R/ ha $R/ha/ano 1000M3/ ha/year $R/ 1000m³ kg/ 1000m³ person-days/ha/ 4,212 1,053 973 6.3 6 1,811 year 69 UCD/Embrapa
  14. 14. Cross-LUS Comparisons LUS Economic Performance Labor Requirements Water for Irrigation Employment NPV of Zero- Operational NPV the Profit Opera- Establish- Establish- Opera- Returns Establish- Water Water Phase of the LUS Wage to tional ment Costs ment Costs tional to Land ment Use Productivity (Contracted LUS per Market Phase on Farm on Plot Costs Labor) hectare Wage $R/ha Person- Person- $R/ha/ 1000M3/ NPV (R$)/ person- $R $R/ha /year ratio days /ha days /ha $R $R/ ha yr ha/year 1000m³ days/ha/ year Goats and Sheep -12 0 0 1 70 6.3 0 0 5.5 4 0 0 Mangos -- g flood irrigation 2,512 628 31 1.10 35 138 553 138 1,177 8.64 2.50 93 Mangos -- micro sprinkler 2,897 724 36 1.21 44 100 4,212 1,053 973 6.3 6 69 UCD/Embrapa
  15. 15. Effects of Uncertainty and Risk Effects f Mortality Uncertainty Eff t of M t lit U t i t on NPV per Year Effect of uncertainty in output prices for mangoes on NPV per year UCD/Embrapa
  16. 16. Conclusions and Policy Implications • Irrigation-Led Intensification: Irrigation Led – Can increase farm profits – Can increase water productivity – Requires investment capital – Can reduce on-farm employment p y • None of these LUS Can Lift a Family of 4 y Out of Poverty • Asset Poverty – Financial capital p – Family labor UCD/Embrapa
  17. 17. Benefits to Researchers • Quick and Easy • F ilit t Interdisciplinary Interaction Facilitates I t di i li I t ti • Help Non-Economists Speak ‘Policy’ – P t an economics overlay on biophysical processes Puts i l bi h i l – Provides quantitative estimates of key variables • Allows for Introducing Uncertainty and Assessing Risk • Help Assess the Effects of Policy Changes and Public Investments – Water price p y p policy – Technological change UCD/Embrapa
  18. 18. Muito Obrigado! UCD/Embrapa

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