Basin Water Use Accounts

Basins water use accounting Mac Kirby Judy Eastham Mohammed Kirby, Eastham, Mainuddin, Mark Thomas, CSIRO Cali workshop, September 2007

Hydrology models • Water resources management, flood forecasting, reservoir (size) design (specialist Karkheh hydrology models) y gy ) Floods, Floods etc • Integrated catchment management (eq WEAP) • Policy - integrated systems Volta Mekong analysis (ie above plus poverty, economics) Discharge (water use accounts + economics) Limpopo MDB • Teaching, understanding (any, simpler better) ( i l b tt )

CAVEAT • I don’t know much about many of the don t basins • I seek input and advice - – Do the results make sense? – How accurate is the land use classification (have irrigation areas been correctly defined)? – What type of crops / cropping systems? – Groundwater?

Input data • Rain, Potential ET • River flows • Land use • Catchment boundaries • River network Ri t k • DEM sometimes • Remote sensed data sometimes (land use derived from) • Irrigation water use - crop coefficients, coefficients calendar • Rainfed water use, including natural / forests - crop coefficients, calendar ffi i t l d

Karkheh, western Iran - Flow • Rainfall ~150 - 750 mm/yr • Issues include: – Low yields – Poor catchment management – Downstream dam development – Terminal marshes – Downstream salinity

Karkheh, western Iran - Flow Observed and calculated flows 500 Observed and calculated flows Observed flow 400 Calculated flow 400 cm Observed flow 300 Flow, m Calculated flow 300 200 Flow, mcm 200 100 0 100 1 49 97 145 Months 0 1 49 97 145 Months Observed and calculated flows 2000 Observed flow Calculated flow Observed and calculated flows 1500 cm 4000 Flow, m 1000 3500 Observed flow 3000 Calculated flow Flow, mc 500 2500 2000 0 1500 1 49 97 145 1000 Months 500 0 Observed and calculated flows 1 49 97 145 3000 Months 2500 Observed flow Calculated flow 2000 Flow, mc m 1500 1000 500 0 1 49 97 145 Months

Karkheh, dam, development • Karkheh dam 2000 • Changes flow to and use in terminal marshes • Depends on allocated use Discharge g 3000 Discharge obs discharge calc 2000 mcm/mo 1000 0 0 50 100 150 Months

Limpopo - land and water use • Rainfall ~250 - 1050 mm/yr • Issues include: –Poverty and food df d –Low productivity rainfed agriculture –Irrigation development -ecosystem degradation, d d i loss of biodiversity Internet data

Limpopo - Flow Discharge Discharge obs discharge calc 600 Discharge Discharge obs 3000 discharge calc 400 m/mo 2000 mcm mcm/mo o 200 1000 0 180 280 380 0 Months 150 250 350 Months Discharge Discharge obs 6000 discharge calc Discharge Discharge obs 1000 discharge calc 5000 4000 cm/mo 3000 mcm/mo o mc 500 2000 1000 0 250 300 350 400 0 Months 150 250 350 Months

Water use Volta 0.25 Rainfall ETo Evaporation or Rainfall (m 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Volta - Flow Observed and calculated flows 6000 5000 Observed flow Calculated flow 4000 Flow, mcm Observed and calculated flows 3000 2500 2000 Observed flow 2000 Calculated flow 1000 Flow, mc 1500 0 1 49 97 145 193 241 1000 Months 500 0 1 49 97 145 193 241 289 337 385 433 Observed and calculated flows Months 9000 8000 Observed and calculated flows Observed flow 7000 Calculated flow 7000 6000 Flow, mc 6000 Observed flow 5000 Calculated flow 5000 4000 3000 w, c Flow m 4000 2000 3000 1000 2000 0 1 49 97 145 1000 Months 0 1 49 97 145 193 241 Months Lake Volta storage volume Observed and calculated flows 35000 160000 Lake storage Observed flow 140000 30000 Calculated flow 120000 25000 age, mc 100000 ow, c Flo m 20000 80000 Stora 15000 60000 10000 40000 5000 20000 0 0 1 49 97 145 193 241 289 337 385 433 481 529 577 1 49 97 145 193 241 289 337 385 433 481 529 577 Months Months

Climate change 35000 Observed and calculated flows 30000 Observed flow Calculated flow 25000 ow, c Flow m 20000 15000 Upper - historical climate 10000 5000 0 Lower - 10 % reduction in 51 55 59 63 67 71 75 79 83 87 91 95 99 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 rainfall Months Observed and calculated flows 35000 Flow reduction is 30 % at 30000 Observed flow outlet of dam Calculated flow 25000 Flow, mc 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 51 55 59 63 67 71 75 79 83 87 91 95 99 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 Months

Water use Sao Francisco 0.30 Rainfall 0.25 ETo Evaporation or Rainfall (m m 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Observed and calculated flows Sao Francisco - Flow 14000 12000 Observed flow Calculated flow 10000 Flow, mc Observed and calculated flows 8000 1400 6000 1200 Observed flow 4000 Calculated flow 1000 2000 0 Flow, mc c 800 1 49 97 145 193 241 289 337 385 433 481 529 577 Months 600 400 200 0 1 49 97 145 193 241 Months Observed and calculated flows 12000 Observed flow 10000 Calculated flow 8000 Flow, mc 6000 4000 2000 Observed and calculated flows 0 14000 1 49 97 145 193 241 289 337 385 433 481 529 577 Months 12000 Observed flow Calculated flow Observed and calculated flows 10000 1200 Flow, mc Observed flow 8000 1000 Calculated flow 800 6000 Flow, mc c 600 4000 400 2000 200 0 0 1 49 97 145 193 241 289 337 385 1 49 97 145 193 241 289 337 385 433 481 529 Months Months

Water use Niger 0.4 04 Rainfall ETo Evaporation or Rainfall (m) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0.4 Rainfall Evaporation or Rainfall (m) ETo 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0.4 04 Rainfall Evaporation or Rainfall (m) ETo 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0.4 Rainfall Evaporation or Rainfall (m) ETo 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Water use Nile 0.35 Rainfall 0.30 ETo Evaporation or Rainfal 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 Jan Feb M Apr M Jun Jul Aug Sep O N Dec ar ay ct ov 45000 Calculated 40000 Observed 35000 30000 Flow 25000 20000 15000 10000 0.35 Rainfall 5000 0.30 ETo al Evaporation or Rainfa 0.25 0 0.20 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 Jan Feb M Apr M Jun Jul Aug Sep O N Dec ar ay ct ov 0.35 Rainfall 0.30 ETo Evaporation or Rainfal 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 Jan Feb M Apr M Jun Jul Aug Sep O N Dec ar ay ct ov

Water use Indus

Water use Ganges

Water use Yellow River

Excel spreadsheets • Simple, easy to use • Build on template, cut and paste new catchment data • Worksheet for each catchment - linked for whole basin • Balance checks and parameter optimisation (using Solver) built in Catchment Pole Dokhtar Balance check Water use Rain total 2827 Discharge 853 Note The gains and the losses do not Gauge point 21-183 inflows outflows dStore error = (I - O - dS) / I mcm Irrigation 461 necessarily equal each other because they losses Drainage area km^2 6762.41 1. rain - ET - runoff 31100 32724 -1624 0.000 Dryland 234 are calculated from averages, which are (evaporation Rain & ET stations 2. flow 22547 21997 550 2.97492E-16 Grazing 168 sometimes from different periods (due to etc) Forest etc 1459 gaps in the data). Also, doesn't account Discharge This worksheet is totals and losses 53 for storage changes organised by fitting constants, constants, constants, constants, (evaporation Forest etc coloured sections as calculations annual totals and totals and totals and totals and annual etc) shown here averages fitting fitting averages averages averages Irrigation g monthly thl input Grazing Dryland calculations data, mostly irrigation raw data from raw rainfall - demand used to data at runoff river flow and dryland make right model model supply ET input data Comment: four columns Parameters Totals Fitting: adjust the parameters so Parameters Totals Fitting: minimise Irrigation summer Smax 0.5 a3 0 sumobsdisch 19774 <------------ this cell equals c1 0 sum dev 1355702 <------------ this cell a1 0.59 sumcalcRO 17776 <------------ this cell c2 0 sums (o-e)^2 subject to the parameters All crops 0.0650655 a2 0.59 years 1995-2005, not 199 approximately is good enough c3 0.323941332 years 1995-2005, not 1994 max area 440 Max area km2 GW in -0.396 Smax 1395.232842 c5 0.67 Effective rainfall fraction 0.97 GW out 0.396 c4 0.7 Closs 1.00 Irrigation efficiency 0.6 annual averages annual averages annual averages annual averages 1798 763 1035 0.418 2 0.294 0.218 1472 2050 53 1616 2 331 Rain part 129 Input data - interpreted from raw data on right Rainfall-runoff model River flow model Irrigation demand and supply inflow + catchment Total water Crop water number of Discharge inflow from local runoff - dam catchment store net channel channel local discharge obs demand Total water demand years 11 obs upstream inflows obs Rain ETo S Irrig dSmax Infilt ET ROdir dGW dS RObas ROtot ROtot diversion Losses evaporation storage inflows store dStorage inflows calc calc discharge per area supply Crop factor per area mcm mcm mcm m m m m m m m m m m m m mcm mcm mcm mcm mcm mcm mcm mcm mcm mcm obs (o-e)^2 m mcm m year month 0.300 0 0.003 0 0 1990 1 109 48 61 0.041 0.027 0.307 0.000 0.200 0.023 0.019 0.018 -0.003 0.007 0.003 0.021 139 173 0 0 173 173 0 0 139 0 109 11800 1.651 0 0 0.000 1990 2 185 71 114 0.063 0.043 0.314 0.000 0.193 0.031 0.028 0.032 -0.003 0.006 0.003 0.035 236 301 0 1 417 245 0 0 236 56 185 16619 1.651 0 0 0.000 1990 3 292 136 156 0.027 0.100 0.283 0.000 0.186 0.017 0.050 0.010 -0.003 -0.031 0.003 0.013 89 139 0 4 415 4 0 0 89 135 292 24608 1.654 3 0 0.000 1990 4 397 167 230 0.069 0.113 0.266 0.000 0.217 0.034 0.054 0.035 -0.003 -0.017 0.003 0.038 254 308 0 4 566 173 0 0 254 134 397 69046 1.648 17 1 0.076 Rainfall and runoff 1990 5 149 61 88 0.004 0.192 0.203 0.000 0.234 0.003 0.070 0.001 -0.003 -0.063 0.003 0.004 24 68 0 9 349 -115 0 0 24 183 149 1178 1.743 92 1 0.313 1990 6 53 28 25 0.000 0.228 0.140 0.000 0.297 0.25 0.000 0.066 Rain 0.000 -0.003 600 -0.063 0.003 0.003 20 36 0 8 194 -77 0 0 20 113 53 3663 1.715 70 1 0.379 ROtot 1990 7 43 20 23 0.000 0.238 0.088 0.000 0.360 0.000 0.055 0.000 -0.003 -0.052 0.003 0.003 20 36 0 6 120 -27 0 0 20 63 43 393 1.696 41 1 0.397 local inflows obs 1990 8 37 14 23 0.000 0.214 0.051 0.000 0.412 0.000 0.040 0.000 -0.003 -0.037 0.003 0.003 20 35 0 4 89 -4 0 0 20 39 37 2 1.645 24 1 0.357 Discharge unoff, flow, mcm/mo 0.20 1990 9 34 14 19 0.000 0.153 0.029 0.000 0.449 0.000 0.025 0.000 -0.003 -0.022 0.003 0.003 20 36 0 2 81 7 0 0 20 29 34 23 1.615 13 1 0.256 400 1000 0 Discharge obs 1990 10 43 16 27 0.004 0.091 0.020 0.000 0.471 0.004 0.016 0.000 -0.003 -0.009 0.003 0.003 23 39 1 92 13 0 0 23 26 43 283 1.611 1 0 0.000 rain, m/mo 0.15 1990 11 54 23 32 0.006 0.051 0.018 0.000 0.480 0.005 0.011 0.001 -0.003 -0.002 0.003 0.004 25 47 0 1 108 17 discharge calc 0 0 25 30 54 594 1.603 0 0 0.000 1990 12 51 20 32 0.013 0.039 0.021 0.000 0.482 0.011 0.010 0.002 -0.003 0.004 0.003 0.005 35 59 0 1 131 24 0 0 35 35 51 265 1.602 0 0 0.000 0.10 1991 1 71 29 42 0.114 0.029 0.072 0.000 0.479 0.062 0.014 0.052 -0.003 200 0.051 0.003 0.055 370 404 0 1 493 362 0 0 370 43 71 811 1.598 0 0 0.000 mo 1991 2 82 37 44 0.024 0.040 0.076 0.000 0.428 0.018 0.018 0.006 -0.003 0.003 0.003 0.009 60 114 0 2 445 -45 0 0 60 160 82 6037 1.598 1 0 0.000 mcm/m ru 0.05 0 05 1991 3 239 114 125 0.035 0.069 0.078 0.000 0.424 0.025 0.026 0.010 -0.003 0.002 0.003 0.013 90 171 500 0 3 468 27 0 0 90 144 239 8980 1.596 1 0 0.000 1991 4 169 84 85 0.016 0.124 0.061 0.000 0.422 0.013 0.032 0.003 -0.003 -0.017 0.003 0.006 42 95 0 5 358 -56 0 0 42 151 169 305 1.591 48 1 0.181 1991 5 51 30 21 0.000 0.169 0.035 0.000 0.00 0.439 0.000 0.029 0.000 0 -0.003 -0.026 0.003 0.003 20 52 0 6 226 -64 0 0 20 116 51 4223 1.498 61 1 0.282 1991 6 31 21 10 0.000 0.215 0.017 0.000 0.465 0 0.000 50 0.021 Months 1000.000 150 -0.003 -0.018 0.003 0.003 20 34 0 6 130 -40 0 0 20 73 31 1779 1.445 51 1 0.359 1991 7 25 18 6 0.000 0.204 0.008 0.000 0.483 0.000 0.012 0.000 -0.003 -0.009 0.003 0.003 20 36 0 4 91 -6 0 0 20 42 25 301 1.367 29 1 0.341 1991 8 20 9 11 0.000 0.195 0.005 0.000 0.492 0.000 0.006 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 0.003 0.003 20 35 0 0 3 73 5 0 0 20 29 20 86 1.360 20 1 0.324 1991 9 18 12 6 0.000 0.151 0.004 0.000 0.495 0.000 0.004 0.000 -0.003 -0.001 0.003 0.003 20 36 0 0 2 50 71 100 12 0 150 0 20 24 18 35 1.351 12 1 0.251 1991 10 29 17 13 0.047 0.077 0.023 0.000 0.496 0.032 0.016 0.015 -0.003 0.020 0.003 0.018 120 136 0 1 Months 183 113 0 0 120 23 29 39 1.326 0 0 0.000 1991 11 31 16 15 0.008 0.048 0.022 0.000 0.477 0.007 0.012 0.001 -0.003 -0.002 0.003 0.004 28 49 0 1 171 -10 0 0 28 59 31 812 1.335 1 0 0.000

Scenarios • Climate change • Increasing irrigation efficiency • Inter- Inter-basin transfers • Dams • Agricultural development (increasing irrigation)

Comparing Basins 2 Water use Karkheh Floods, Floods etc Volta Mekong M k Discharge g rainfed agriculture grassland MDB woodland + other irrigated agriculture Limpopo net runoff

Comparing basins 1 hydrology 1.2 supply lim ppy it capacity limit 1 0.8 08 Karkheh ET/ETo 0.6 Indus M Floods, etc ekong Volta Ganges 0.4 Yellow Sao Francisco Limpopo N iger Volta Nile 0.2 Volta Mekong g Karkheh 0 Discharge 0 0.5 1 1.5 P/ETo MDB Limpopo

Comparing Basins 2 1.2 supply limit capacity limit 1 Water use0.8 ET/ETo Karkheh 0.6 Indus Volta Mekong Ganges Yellow Sao Francisco 0.4 04 Limpopo N iger Floods, Floods etc N ile 0.2 Karkheh 0 0 0.5 1 1.5 P/ETo Volta Mekong M k Discharge g rainfed agriculture grassland MDB woodland + other irrigated agriculture Limpopo net runoff

Annual Water Stress Index in the Indus basin (Irrigation only)

Annual Water Stress Index in the Ganges basin (Irrigation only)

Water Stress Index distribution (Irrigation only) on the Indus & Ganges rivers Indus River Ganges River 1.0 Severe > 0 4 0.4 Water Stress Index ΣA/Q Medium 0.2-0.4 0.8 Low < 0.2 0.6 0.4 r 0.2 0.0 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Source Relative distance from estuary Estuary

Current Water Stress distribution on the Indus River CURRENT 1.0 Severe > 0.4 mulativ e Wate r Medium 0.2-0.4 0.8 Low < 0.2 Stress Index 0.6 Irrigation 0.4 Domestic Cum S Industrial 0.2 0.0 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Source Relative distance from ocean Estuary

Current & future water use trends in response to population go t growth in t e Indus Basin the dus as Current 2025 2% 4% 5% 12% 84% 93% Irrigation Domestic Industrial

Projected Water Stress distribution on the Indus River (2025 population) ( 0 5 popu at o ) 2025 1.4 Severe > 0.4 Irrigation 1.2 Medium 0 2 0 4 0.2-0.4 mualtiv Wate r Domestic D ti Low < 0.2 1.0 Stress Index Industrial 08 0.8 ve 0.6 Cum 0.4 S 0.2 0.0 00 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Estuary Source Relative distance from ocean

Comparing current and projected Water Stress distribution on the Indus River 1.4 14 1.2 W a te r S tre s s In d e x Severe > 0.4 (a ll w a te r u s e s ) Medium 0.2-0.4 1.0 10 Low < 0.2 0.8 0.6 06 t Current 0.4 2025 0.2 02 0.0 1.0 10 0.8 08 0.6 06 0.4 04 0.2 02 0.0 00 Relative distance from ocean Source Estuary

Comparing water stress of current and future population (2025) in the Indus Basin 300 Current 250 2025 ple Millio peop 200 150 on 100 50 0 Low Medium Severe Degree of water stress

Water stress indices seasonal effects Percentage of the population of the Indus Basin living under varying degress of water stress: Current population and climate • Whole Indus M edium High 80% Low 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Percentage of the population of the Indus Basin Jan Feb M Apr M ar ay Jun Jul Aug Sep O N Dec ct ov living under varying degress of water stress: 2025 population and future climate M edium 80% High 70% Low 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Jan Feb M Apr M ar ay Jun Jul Aug Sep O N Dec ct ov

Other stress indices • Dams - storage volume as a fraction of annual flow – Lake Volta ~ 3 x annual flow – Karkheh ~ 1 x annual flow – Mekong ~ 0 05 x annual flow 0.05 • Drought indices - recurrence • Linked to population • I di to be used with care - th M Indices t b d ith the Murray-D li Murray-Darling would show as very stressed on most indices, but we don’t propose to send international aid to don t relieve poverty

Conclusions - tentative thoughts • Want local input on data - land use, etc. • Can do water use accounts for many basins - but data availability varies • Basins vary greatly in water availability, variability, l l bl bl management • B i likely vary greatly in vulnerability to change Basins lik l tl i l bilit t h

Conclusions 2 Basins compared • Water use accounts give a foundation for comparing basins • CPWF basins show range from dry to wet • Range of water opportunities and constraints R f t t iti d t i t • Implications for transportability of results across basins of similar hydrology type? • Foundation for economic analyses, developing other models eg WEAP • Role for analogous studies on food and poverty?

Basin Water Use Accounts

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