This was presented at teh Basin Focal Project Review meeting in Cali, Colombia from 1-5 Feb, 2008

1. Basins water use accounting
Mac Kirby Judy Eastham Mohammed
Kirby, Eastham,
Mainuddin, Mark Thomas, CSIRO
Cali workshop, September 2007

2. Hydrology models
• Water resources
management, flood
forecasting, reservoir
(size) design (specialist Karkheh
hydrology models)
y gy ) Floods,
Floods etc
• Integrated catchment
management (eq WEAP)
• Policy - integrated systems Volta
Mekong
analysis (ie above plus
poverty, economics) Discharge
(water use accounts +
economics) Limpopo
MDB
• Teaching, understanding
(any, simpler better)
( i l b tt )

3. CAVEAT
• I don’t know much about many of the
don t
basins
• I seek input and advice -
– Do the results make sense?
– How accurate is the land use classification
(have irrigation areas been correctly defined)?
– What type of crops / cropping systems?
– Groundwater?

4. Input data
• Rain, Potential ET
• River flows
• Land use
• Catchment boundaries
• River network
Ri t k
• DEM sometimes
• Remote sensed data sometimes
(land use derived from)
• Irrigation water use - crop
coefficients,
coefficients calendar
• Rainfed water use, including
natural / forests - crop
coefficients, calendar
ffi i t l d

5. Karkheh, western
Iran - Flow
• Rainfall ~150 - 750
mm/yr
• Issues include:
– Low yields
– Poor catchment
management
– Downstream dam
development
– Terminal marshes
– Downstream salinity

6. Karkheh, western
Iran - Flow
Observed and calculated flows
500
Observed and calculated flows Observed flow
400 Calculated flow
400
cm
Observed flow 300
Flow, m
Calculated flow
300
200
Flow, mcm
200 100
0
100
1 49 97 145
Months
0
1 49 97 145
Months
Observed and calculated flows
2000
Observed flow
Calculated flow Observed and calculated flows
1500
cm
4000
Flow, m
1000 3500 Observed flow
3000 Calculated flow
Flow, mc
500 2500
2000
0 1500
1 49 97 145 1000
Months 500
0
Observed and calculated flows 1 49 97 145
3000 Months
2500 Observed flow
Calculated flow
2000
Flow, mc
m
1500
1000
500
0
1 49 97 145
Months

7. Karkheh, dam,
development
• Karkheh dam 2000
• Changes flow to and
use in terminal marshes
• Depends on allocated
use
Discharge
g
3000 Discharge obs
discharge calc
2000
mcm/mo
1000
0
0 50 100 150
Months

8. Limpopo - land and
water use
• Rainfall ~250 - 1050 mm/yr
• Issues include:
–Poverty and food
df d
–Low productivity rainfed agriculture
–Irrigation
development
-ecosystem
degradation,
d d i
loss of
biodiversity
Internet data

9. Limpopo - Flow
Discharge Discharge obs
discharge calc
600 Discharge Discharge obs
3000 discharge calc
400
m/mo
2000
mcm
mcm/mo
o
200
1000
0
180 280 380 0
Months
150 250 350
Months
Discharge Discharge obs
6000 discharge calc
Discharge Discharge obs
1000 discharge calc 5000
4000
cm/mo
3000
mcm/mo
o
mc
500 2000
1000
0
250 300 350 400
0 Months
150 250 350
Months

10. Water use Volta
0.25
Rainfall
ETo
Evaporation or Rainfall (m
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

11. Volta - Flow Observed and calculated flows
6000
5000 Observed flow
Calculated flow
4000
Flow, mcm
Observed and calculated flows
3000
2500
2000
Observed flow
2000 Calculated flow
1000
Flow, mc
1500
0
1 49 97 145 193 241
1000
Months
500
0
1 49 97 145 193 241 289 337 385 433 Observed and calculated flows
Months
9000
8000
Observed and calculated flows Observed flow
7000 Calculated flow
7000
6000
Flow, mc
6000 Observed flow
5000
Calculated flow
5000 4000
3000
w, c
Flow m
4000
2000
3000
1000
2000 0
1 49 97 145
1000
Months
0
1 49 97 145 193 241
Months
Lake Volta storage volume Observed and calculated flows
35000
160000
Lake storage Observed flow
140000 30000
Calculated flow
120000 25000
age, mc
100000
ow, c
Flo m
20000
80000
Stora
15000
60000
10000
40000
5000
20000
0 0
1 49 97 145 193 241 289 337 385 433 481 529 577 1 49 97 145 193 241 289 337 385 433 481 529 577
Months Months

12. Climate change 35000
Observed and calculated flows
30000 Observed flow
Calculated flow
25000
ow, c
Flow m
20000
15000
Upper - historical climate 10000
5000
0
Lower - 10 % reduction in
51
55
59
63
67
71
75
79
83
87
91
95
99
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
rainfall Months
Observed and calculated flows
35000
Flow reduction is 30 % at 30000 Observed flow
outlet of dam
Calculated flow
25000
Flow, mc
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
51
55
59
63
67
71
75
79
83
87
91
95
99
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
Months

13. Water use Sao
Francisco
0.30
Rainfall
0.25 ETo
Evaporation or Rainfall (m
m
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

14. Observed and calculated flows
Sao Francisco - Flow
14000
12000 Observed flow
Calculated flow
10000
Flow, mc
Observed and calculated flows 8000
1400 6000
1200 Observed flow 4000
Calculated flow
1000 2000
0
Flow, mc
c
800
1 49 97 145 193 241 289 337 385 433 481 529 577
Months
600
400
200
0
1 49 97 145 193 241
Months
Observed and calculated flows
12000
Observed flow
10000
Calculated flow
8000
Flow, mc
6000
4000
2000
Observed and calculated flows
0 14000
1 49 97 145 193 241 289 337 385 433 481 529 577
Months 12000 Observed flow
Calculated flow
Observed and calculated flows
10000
1200
Flow, mc
Observed flow 8000
1000
Calculated flow
800 6000
Flow, mc
c
600
4000
400
2000
200
0 0
1 49 97 145 193 241 289 337 385 1 49 97 145 193 241 289 337 385 433 481 529
Months Months

15. Water use Niger
0.4
04
Rainfall
ETo
Evaporation or Rainfall (m)
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0.4
Rainfall
Evaporation or Rainfall (m)
ETo
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0.4
04
Rainfall
Evaporation or Rainfall (m)
ETo
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0.4
Rainfall
Evaporation or Rainfall (m)
ETo
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

16. Water use Nile 0.35
Rainfall
0.30 ETo
Evaporation or Rainfal
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
Jan Feb M Apr M Jun Jul Aug Sep O N Dec
ar ay ct ov
45000
Calculated
40000
Observed
35000
30000
Flow
25000
20000
15000
10000
0.35
Rainfall
5000 0.30 ETo
al
Evaporation or Rainfa
0.25
0 0.20
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
Jan Feb M Apr M Jun Jul Aug Sep O N Dec
ar ay ct ov
0.35
Rainfall
0.30 ETo
Evaporation or Rainfal
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
Jan Feb M Apr M Jun Jul Aug Sep O N Dec
ar ay ct ov

17. Water use
Indus

18. Water use
Ganges

19. Water use Yellow
River

20. Excel spreadsheets
• Simple, easy to use
• Build on template, cut and paste new catchment data
• Worksheet for each catchment - linked for whole basin
• Balance checks and parameter optimisation (using
Solver) built in
Catchment Pole Dokhtar Balance check Water use Rain total 2827 Discharge 853 Note The gains and the losses do not
Gauge point 21-183 inflows outflows dStore error = (I - O - dS) / I mcm Irrigation 461 necessarily equal each other because they
losses
Drainage area km^2 6762.41 1. rain - ET - runoff 31100 32724 -1624 0.000 Dryland 234 are calculated from averages, which are
(evaporation
Rain & ET stations 2. flow 22547 21997 550 2.97492E-16 Grazing 168 sometimes from different periods (due to etc)
Forest etc 1459 gaps in the data). Also, doesn't account Discharge
This worksheet is totals and losses 53 for storage changes
organised by fitting constants, constants, constants, constants, (evaporation
Forest etc
coloured sections as calculations annual totals and totals and totals and totals and annual etc)
shown here averages fitting fitting averages averages averages
Irrigation
g
monthly
thl input
Grazing Dryland
calculations data,
mostly irrigation raw data
from raw rainfall - demand used to
data at runoff river flow and dryland make
right model model supply ET input data Comment: four columns
Parameters Totals Fitting: adjust the parameters so Parameters Totals Fitting: minimise Irrigation summer
Smax 0.5 a3 0 sumobsdisch 19774 <------------ this cell equals c1 0 sum dev 1355702 <------------ this cell
a1 0.59 sumcalcRO 17776 <------------ this cell c2 0 sums (o-e)^2 subject to the parameters All crops 0.0650655
a2 0.59 years 1995-2005, not 199 approximately is good enough c3 0.323941332 years 1995-2005, not 1994 max area 440 Max area km2
GW in -0.396 Smax 1395.232842 c5 0.67 Effective rainfall fraction 0.97
GW out 0.396 c4 0.7 Closs 1.00 Irrigation efficiency 0.6
annual averages annual averages annual averages annual averages
1798 763 1035 0.418 2 0.294 0.218 1472 2050 53 1616 2 331
Rain part 129
Input data - interpreted from raw data on right Rainfall-runoff model River flow model Irrigation demand and supply
inflow + catchment Total water Crop water
number of Discharge inflow from local runoff - dam catchment store net channel channel local discharge obs demand Total water demand
years 11 obs upstream inflows obs Rain ETo S Irrig dSmax Infilt ET ROdir dGW dS RObas ROtot ROtot diversion Losses evaporation storage inflows store dStorage inflows calc calc discharge per area supply Crop factor per area
mcm mcm mcm m m m m m m m m m m m m mcm mcm mcm mcm mcm mcm mcm mcm mcm mcm obs (o-e)^2 m mcm m
year month 0.300 0 0.003 0 0
1990 1 109 48 61 0.041 0.027 0.307 0.000 0.200 0.023 0.019 0.018 -0.003 0.007 0.003 0.021 139 173 0 0 173 173 0 0 139 0 109 11800 1.651 0 0 0.000
1990 2 185 71 114 0.063 0.043 0.314 0.000 0.193 0.031 0.028 0.032 -0.003 0.006 0.003 0.035 236 301 0 1 417 245 0 0 236 56 185 16619 1.651 0 0 0.000
1990 3 292 136 156 0.027 0.100 0.283 0.000 0.186 0.017 0.050 0.010 -0.003 -0.031 0.003 0.013 89 139 0 4 415 4 0 0 89 135 292 24608 1.654 3 0 0.000
1990 4 397 167 230 0.069 0.113 0.266 0.000 0.217 0.034 0.054 0.035 -0.003 -0.017 0.003 0.038 254 308 0 4 566 173 0 0 254 134 397 69046 1.648 17 1 0.076
Rainfall and runoff
1990 5 149 61 88 0.004 0.192 0.203 0.000 0.234 0.003 0.070 0.001 -0.003 -0.063 0.003 0.004 24 68 0 9 349 -115 0 0 24 183 149 1178 1.743 92 1 0.313
1990 6 53 28 25 0.000 0.228 0.140 0.000 0.297
0.25 0.000 0.066 Rain
0.000 -0.003
600 -0.063 0.003 0.003 20 36 0 8 194 -77 0 0 20 113 53 3663 1.715 70 1 0.379
ROtot
1990 7 43 20 23 0.000 0.238 0.088 0.000 0.360 0.000 0.055 0.000 -0.003 -0.052 0.003 0.003 20 36 0 6 120 -27 0 0 20 63 43 393 1.696 41 1 0.397
local inflows obs
1990 8 37 14 23 0.000 0.214 0.051 0.000 0.412 0.000 0.040 0.000 -0.003 -0.037 0.003 0.003 20 35 0 4 89 -4 0 0 20 39 37 2 1.645 24 1 0.357
Discharge
unoff, flow, mcm/mo
0.20
1990 9 34 14 19 0.000 0.153 0.029 0.000 0.449 0.000 0.025 0.000 -0.003 -0.022 0.003 0.003 20 36 0 2 81 7 0 0 20 29 34 23 1.615 13 1 0.256
400 1000 0 Discharge obs
1990 10 43 16 27 0.004 0.091 0.020 0.000 0.471 0.004 0.016 0.000 -0.003 -0.009 0.003 0.003 23 39 1 92 13 0 0 23 26 43 283 1.611 1 0 0.000
rain, m/mo
0.15
1990 11 54 23 32 0.006 0.051 0.018 0.000 0.480 0.005 0.011 0.001 -0.003 -0.002 0.003 0.004 25 47 0 1 108 17 discharge calc
0 0 25 30 54 594 1.603 0 0 0.000
1990 12 51 20 32 0.013 0.039 0.021 0.000 0.482 0.011 0.010 0.002 -0.003 0.004 0.003 0.005 35 59 0 1 131 24 0 0 35 35 51 265 1.602 0 0 0.000
0.10
1991 1 71 29 42 0.114 0.029 0.072 0.000 0.479 0.062 0.014 0.052 -0.003
200 0.051 0.003 0.055 370 404 0 1 493 362 0 0 370 43 71 811 1.598 0 0 0.000
mo
1991 2 82 37 44 0.024 0.040 0.076 0.000 0.428 0.018 0.018 0.006 -0.003 0.003 0.003 0.009 60 114 0 2 445 -45 0 0 60 160 82 6037 1.598 1 0 0.000
mcm/m
ru
0.05
0 05
1991 3 239 114 125 0.035 0.069 0.078 0.000 0.424 0.025 0.026 0.010 -0.003 0.002 0.003 0.013 90 171 500 0 3 468 27 0 0 90 144 239 8980 1.596 1 0 0.000
1991 4 169 84 85 0.016 0.124 0.061 0.000 0.422 0.013 0.032 0.003 -0.003 -0.017 0.003 0.006 42 95 0 5 358 -56 0 0 42 151 169 305 1.591 48 1 0.181
1991 5 51 30 21 0.000 0.169 0.035 0.000 0.00
0.439 0.000 0.029 0.000 0
-0.003 -0.026 0.003 0.003 20 52 0 6 226 -64 0 0 20 116 51 4223 1.498 61 1 0.282
1991 6 31 21 10 0.000 0.215 0.017 0.000 0.465 0 0.000 50 0.021
Months
1000.000 150
-0.003 -0.018 0.003 0.003 20 34 0 6 130 -40 0 0 20 73 31 1779 1.445 51 1 0.359
1991 7 25 18 6 0.000 0.204 0.008 0.000 0.483 0.000 0.012 0.000 -0.003 -0.009 0.003 0.003 20 36 0 4 91 -6 0 0 20 42 25 301 1.367 29 1 0.341
1991 8 20 9 11 0.000 0.195 0.005 0.000 0.492 0.000 0.006 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 0.003 0.003 20 35 0 0 3 73 5 0 0 20 29 20 86 1.360 20 1 0.324
1991 9 18 12 6 0.000 0.151 0.004 0.000 0.495 0.000 0.004 0.000 -0.003 -0.001 0.003 0.003 20 36 0
0 2 50 71 100 12 0 150 0 20 24 18 35 1.351 12 1 0.251
1991 10 29 17 13 0.047 0.077 0.023 0.000 0.496 0.032 0.016 0.015 -0.003 0.020 0.003 0.018 120 136 0 1 Months
183 113 0 0 120 23 29 39 1.326 0 0 0.000
1991 11 31 16 15 0.008 0.048 0.022 0.000 0.477 0.007 0.012 0.001 -0.003 -0.002 0.003 0.004 28 49 0 1 171 -10 0 0 28 59 31 812 1.335 1 0 0.000

21. Scenarios
• Climate change
• Increasing irrigation efficiency
• Inter-
Inter-basin transfers
• Dams
• Agricultural development (increasing irrigation)

22. Comparing Basins 2
Water use
Karkheh
Floods,
Floods etc
Volta
Mekong
M k
Discharge
g
rainfed
agriculture
grassland
MDB
woodland + other
irrigated
agriculture Limpopo
net runoff

23. Comparing basins 1
hydrology
1.2
supply lim
ppy it
capacity limit
1
0.8
08
Karkheh
ET/ETo
0.6 Indus
M
Floods, etc
ekong
Volta Ganges
0.4 Yellow Sao Francisco
Limpopo N iger
Volta
Nile
0.2 Volta Mekong
g
Karkheh
0
Discharge
0 0.5 1 1.5
P/ETo MDB
Limpopo

24. Comparing Basins 2
1.2
supply limit
capacity limit
1
Water use0.8
ET/ETo
Karkheh
0.6 Indus
Volta Mekong
Ganges
Yellow Sao Francisco
0.4
04
Limpopo N iger
Floods,
Floods etc
N ile
0.2
Karkheh
0
0 0.5 1 1.5
P/ETo
Volta
Mekong
M k
Discharge
g
rainfed
agriculture
grassland
MDB
woodland + other
irrigated
agriculture Limpopo
net runoff

25. Annual Water Stress
Index in the Indus
basin (Irrigation only)

26. Annual Water Stress
Index in the Ganges
basin (Irrigation only)

27. Water Stress Index distribution
(Irrigation only) on the Indus &
Ganges rivers
Indus River
Ganges River
1.0
Severe > 0 4
0.4
Water Stress Index ΣA/Q
Medium 0.2-0.4 0.8
Low < 0.2
0.6
0.4
r
0.2
0.0
1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
Source Relative distance from estuary Estuary

28. Current Water Stress distribution
on the Indus River
CURRENT
1.0
Severe > 0.4
mulativ e Wate r
Medium 0.2-0.4 0.8
Low < 0.2
Stress Index
0.6
Irrigation 0.4
Domestic
Cum
S
Industrial 0.2
0.0
1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
Source Relative distance from ocean Estuary

29. Current & future water use
trends in response to population
go t
growth in t e Indus Basin
the dus as
Current 2025
2% 4%
5%
12%
84%
93% Irrigation
Domestic
Industrial

30. Projected Water Stress
distribution on the Indus River
(2025 population)
( 0 5 popu at o )
2025
1.4
Severe > 0.4 Irrigation 1.2
Medium 0 2 0 4
0.2-0.4
mualtiv Wate r
Domestic
D ti
Low < 0.2 1.0
Stress Index
Industrial
08
0.8
ve
0.6
Cum
0.4
S
0.2
0.0
00
1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
Estuary
Source Relative distance from ocean

31. Comparing current and
projected Water Stress
distribution on the Indus River
1.4
14
1.2
W a te r S tre s s In d e x
Severe > 0.4
(a ll w a te r u s e s )
Medium 0.2-0.4 1.0
10
Low < 0.2
0.8
0.6
06
t
Current 0.4
2025 0.2
02
0.0
1.0
10 0.8
08 0.6
06 0.4
04 0.2
02 0.0
00
Relative distance from ocean
Source Estuary

32. Comparing water stress of current
and future population (2025) in the
Indus Basin
300
Current
250
2025
ple
Millio peop
200
150
on
100
50
0
Low Medium Severe
Degree of water stress

33. Water stress indices
seasonal effects Percentage of the population of the Indus Basin
living under varying degress of water stress:
Current population and climate
• Whole Indus
M edium
High
80%
Low
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Percentage of the population of the Indus Basin
Jan Feb M Apr M
ar ay Jun Jul Aug Sep O N Dec
ct ov
living under varying degress of water stress: 2025
population and future climate
M edium
80% High
70% Low
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Jan Feb M Apr M
ar ay Jun Jul Aug Sep O N Dec
ct ov

34. Other stress indices
• Dams - storage volume as a fraction of annual flow
– Lake Volta ~ 3 x annual flow
– Karkheh ~ 1 x annual flow
– Mekong ~ 0 05 x annual flow
0.05
• Drought indices - recurrence
• Linked to population
• I di to be used with care - th M
Indices t b d ith the Murray-D li
Murray-Darling
would show as very stressed on most indices, but
we don’t propose to send international aid to
don t
relieve poverty

35. Conclusions -
tentative thoughts
• Want local input on data - land use, etc.
• Can do water use accounts for many basins - but
data availability varies
• Basins vary greatly in water availability, variability,
l l bl bl
management
• B i likely vary greatly in vulnerability to change
Basins lik l tl i l bilit t h

36. Conclusions 2
Basins compared
• Water use accounts give a foundation for comparing
basins
• CPWF basins show range from dry to wet
• Range of water opportunities and constraints
R f t t iti d t i t
• Implications for transportability of results across
basins of similar hydrology type?
• Foundation for economic analyses, developing other
models eg WEAP
• Role for analogous studies on food and poverty?