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Mobile Social Networking industry 2008

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Mobile social networking growth trends, feature evolution, growth metrics, emerging obstacles, emerging opportunities, market research

Mobile social networking growth trends, feature evolution, growth metrics, emerging obstacles, emerging opportunities, market research

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  • 1. Mobile Social Networking 2008 in Review An overview of trends and developments in 2008 - All product and company names and logos contained within are the trade marks, service marks or trading names of their respective owners - All opinions contained herein are those of the author - All errors, inaccuracies and omissions are solely the responsibility of the author, who accepts no liabilities for such PEREY Research & Consulting - All rights reserved. Use/reuse only with permission.
  • 2. Contents • Definitions and basic principles – As published in first edition of report • Developments within and surrounding mobile social networking – Growth drivers – Feature evolution – Growth metrics – Emerging obstacles – Emerging opportunities 2 PEREY Research & Consulting
  • 3. Mobile Social Networking • All of the activities (verbs) and enabling elements necessary for the contribution and consumption of social media (UGC) across a mobile network – All media types – In addition to mobile-centric – Doesn’t include* communities, includes • SMS • Mobile flirt and chat rooms • Photo lockers/albums • Some mobile IM services • Phone/address book • Portion of PC-centric • Navigation social media/community *But these are “enablers” of differentiated services accessed via community services when they are integrated within a mobile network social networking platform. Such services can “spawn” social networking features, in which case are included 3 PEREY Research & Consulting
  • 4. Mobile Social Networking (2) • The key to the definition is the user’s implicit or explicit choice of mobile network technologies to access the social facet of their Digital Lifestyle 4 PEREY Research & Consulting
  • 5. Mobile Social Networking is NOT • the form factor or manufacturer of the device (terminal) chosen • the type of media (text, images, video, music, animations) • the existence or lack of a prior relationship • the distance or proximity Think people 5 PEREY Research & Consulting
  • 6. A few contrasts Mobile PC Communities tend to focus on Communities designed for one or few human needs general interest/multi-purpose Immediate (it goes with user) Intermittent (user goes to it) Across all socioeconomic strata People of “some means” Moderation is critical to ecosystem Moderation is exception, not rule This is their first/principle Internet access device This is their principle access, mobile is “dumb down” version Assumed connectivity/services billing relationship Assumption is that Web services with NOTABLE regional differences in business are free, included with access models: charges paid to an ISP Western Europe, Japan and USA: post-pay India, Latin America, Africa, ELSEWHERE: pre-pay 6 PEREY Research & Consulting
  • 7. Human Needs and Mobile Social Networking 7 PEREY Research & Consulting
  • 8. Trends driving growth PEREY Research & Consulting
  • 9. All drivers accelerated Source: Informa Telecoms & Media Mobile Social Networking Report 9 PEREY Research & Consulting
  • 10. Social media “smart” handsets • iPhone (3G and predecessors) and app Store • Nokia and Ovi – 5800 Xpress Music phone social networking UI – More applications (Share on Ovi, FriendView) • Android phone and Android Market • Facebook phone INQ1 • More social apps written for Blackberry & Windows Mobile • LG phones – Integrated social networking clients apps – 8 Megapixel camera 10 PEREY Research & Consulting
  • 11. Changing Internet • Social Web is here • Major Web (PC-centric) communities pushing mobile 11 PEREY Research & Consulting
  • 12. Mobile content/media • Commercial/professional content and properties – Attract but do not retain – High cost for small #s of mobile subs • Mobile community services emerging from – Entertainment – Sports – News 12 PEREY Research & Consulting
  • 13. User Generated Content • Enormous growth in every category • More video – Within community • Mobile to mobile – Mobile to PC • Embedding video in pages • MySpace video – Streaming to mobile 13 PEREY Research & Consulting
  • 14. Network operators • Vodafone – Few announcements, acquired Zyb and Wayfinder – “Many social networking initiatives cooking” • Telefonica – Announcements with large Web players • Many not keeping up with pace of changes • Mobile internet access performance variable – particularly where flat rate is cheap • Could be much better 14 PEREY Research & Consulting
  • 15. B2C and advertising • Many companies have just begun to explore direct dialog (community services) with consumers, mobile is still distant • Social media advertising – Perceived by large brands as risky – Rewards poorly understood/communicated – Mobile social networking advertising is primarily local – Highly variable cpm • Causing some “drag” on the revenue growth 15 PEREY Research & Consulting
  • 16. Digital/mobile natives • Their number is rising, and their mobile services are indispensible (compared to fixed line for voice) • Global economic recession – Depressing disposable income for families, entertainment – Lower rate of handset replacement • Free access and advertising sponsored services are key to maintaining the growth in this segment’s participation 16 PEREY Research & Consulting
  • 17. Evolution of features PEREY Research & Consulting
  • 18. Ease of Use • Single sign-on becoming more prevalent • Simpler interfaces – Remains room for improvement • Higher integration – With handset (in some cases) and/or – Operator portals – Application (media player) integration still lags • “One-button” multi-community gateways – Alerts/notifications – Social media publishing 18 PEREY Research & Consulting
  • 19. 3rd generation • 3rd Gen of Mobile Social Networking – Advances across the industry – Not all features for all communities • New feature sets may include – Location-awareness (many variations on this theme) – Presence • Ability to hide yourself/mask presence – Asynchronous video conversations – Multipoint audio chat conversation – Multiplayer mobile gaming 19 PEREY Research & Consulting
  • 20. Growth metrics PEREY Research & Consulting
  • 21. Mobile community proliferation • Number of operator-based (on-deck) mobile community services has doubled in 2 years • Number of independently- operated mobile communities exceeds 200 by the end of 2008 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: PEREY Research & Consulting 21 PEREY Research & Consulting
  • 22. Mobile community user types • Mobile user segments becoming Creators more distinguishable Critics Getting more prolific Mobile community Collectors user types Forrester’s social web Growing Joiners user virally segments 22 PEREY Research & Consulting
  • 23. All metrics show strong growth • Registered users – New registrations/month • Active users (1 or more visit/month) • Time engaged/visit • Pages viewed • Comments/messages posted • Photos and videos contributed and viewed 23 PEREY Research & Consulting
  • 24. Mobile subscribers and total global mobile community registrations 160 • By the end of 2008, 3.5% of world mobile subscribers 140 (approx 100M) are using 120 mobile social networks 100 • Each subscriber has 80 registered with an average 60 of 1.45 communities 40 20 0 2006 2007 2008 Source: PEREY Research & Consulting 24 PEREY Research & Consulting
  • 25. Mobile Social Networking Revenues • Depending on the country 6 and the service, an active mobile community 5 participant generates 4 between $2/month and $7/month to the partners 3 US$B in the services ecosystem • Globally, user paid 2 portion of these revenues 1 exceeds the corporate paid contribution to the 0 total monthly bottom line 2006 2007 2008 Source: PEREY Research & Consulting 25 PEREY Research & Consulting
  • 26. Persistent obstacle: Cost • Mobile data tariffs – Flat rate data • Highly variable with and across geographies • Where available, sometimes prohibitively high • Roaming data tariffs – Most subscribers are pre-pay • Unknown costs – Cost of data remains mysterious (for most) – Roaming data (full of surprises) 26 PEREY Research & Consulting
  • 27. Persistent obstacle: Silos • Isolated communities arise due to – Mobile networks – Community platforms – Business models 27 PEREY Research & Consulting
  • 28. Emerging obstacles PEREY Research & Consulting
  • 29. Confusion • Community choices difficult to navigate/differentiate – For all ecosystem players including end users/participants • Data storage vs data portability • Merge mobile community traffic – Invitations – Alerts/notifications • Each community receives fraction of user’s total attention/mind-share 29 PEREY Research & Consulting
  • 30. Complexity • Some mobile social networking services are approaching transition point • Complexity is only justified when it simplifies the user experience (when it contributes to ease of use) 30 PEREY Research & Consulting
  • 31. Quality of experience As network load from data users increases on fixed capacity, service reliability is at risk Quality of user experience declines due to temporarily overloaded mobile networks then recovers, then declines…. 31 PEREY Research & Consulting
  • 32. Emerging opportunities PEREY Research & Consulting
  • 33. Context and communities • Location, yes, but not just location! • Contextual services leveraging Time – GPS and other sensors Location Capabilities • In the environment (my network, my handset) • In the handset-rapid proliferation Direction of these in 2008 of travel User Prefer- – Personal area networks Proximity to ences people and – Histories places of interest Status • Individual-accumulating in 2008 • Group 33 PEREY Research & Consulting
  • 34. Location-driven experiences See the locations or patterns of others – Provides live human “heat maps” Browse places which friends have tagged CitySense and rated 34 PEREY Research & Consulting
  • 35. Deeper and adaptive experiences • Integration between real and digital worlds • Personal memory – Storage and retrieval • Using mobile in conjunction with fixed – Connect over mobile, use large displays 35 PEREY Research & Consulting
  • 36. Will you take a 5 minute survey? Go to http://www.perey.com/Survey.html PEREY Research & Consulting
  • 37. Mobile Social Networking Communities and Content on the Move Second Edition of the report published by in February 2009 Christine Perey cperey@perey.com +41 79 436 68 69 37 PEREY Research & Consulting

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