Houston Economy at a Glance November 2013
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  • 1. A publication of the Greater Houston Partnership Volume 22, Number 11 • November 2013 ’13 Shaping Up Nicely — Economists now have nine months of data to assess the year’s performance. All but a few indicators suggest ’13 will be one of the best years on record for Houston. Home sales, auto sales, residential construction, commercial leasing and airport traffic are at or nearing record levels. If Houston can maintain the momentum, ’14 will prove to be a stellar year as well. A few indicators do give pause for concern, however. The rig count has flattened. Exports have slipped. Employment growth has slowed from a sprint to a trot. And the national recovery has had so many false starts it should be disqualified. So what does next year hold for Houston? On December 3, the Partnership will host the Houston Region Economic Outlook which will include a morning panel discussion featuring experts from several key industries—energy, health care, and real estate—discussing the state of Houston’s economy and the outlook for ’14. Panelists include: • Mark A. Cover, Senior Managing Director and CEO, Southwest Region for Hines • Robert C. Robbins, M.D., President and CEO, Texas Medical Center • Darryl Wilson, Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer - Distributed Power, GE Power & Water Cover will serve as the outlook panel’s real estate expert. In recent months, Hines has doubled down on Houston, recently announcing plans for a European-style residential community on 46 acres off Old Katy Road, a 47-story, one-million-square-foot office tower downtown, a 33-story, 327,000-square-foot luxury high-rise near Market Square, and several other projects around town. Robbins will serve as the panel’s health care expert. Health care accounts for nearly one in nine jobs in the region. The mandates of the Affordable Care Act, the area’s aging population, and pressure from patients and insurers to contain costs have begun to impact the industry and, potentially, the region’s employment outlook. Wilson will serve as the panel’s energy expert. Houston is home to 6,000 GE employees and seven of the company’s business units, including Oil & Gas, Healthcare and Capital. November 2013 ©2013, Greater Houston Partnership Page 1
  • 2. Wilson will provide his insights into the outlook for Houston’s energy and manufacturing industries. Shern-Min Chow, who co-anchors KHOU 11 News @ 4, will moderate the panel discussion, which begins at 10 a.m. Those attending the morning session will receive a copy of Houston Economic Highlights, 48 pages of insights into economic and demographic trends in Houston over the past 10 years. You can find a copy of the Highlights publication distributed at last year’s event by clicking here. The luncheon portion of the outlook convenes at noon. Patrick Jankowski, GHP’s Vice President of Research, will present GHP’s employment forecast for ’14. (Click here to see GHP’s forecast for ’13. At last year’s event, GHP forecast the region would create 76,000 jobs this year. In the 12 months ending August ’13, the latest month for which data are available, the region created 80,600 jobs 1. Follow me on Twitter @PNJankowski Subscribe to my blog The Glass Half Full also posted at www.houston.org/economy John Silvia, Managing Director and Chief Economist for Wells Fargo, will be the luncheon keynote speaker. Silvia is the current President-Elect of National Association for Business Economics. Twice in the past three years, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago has acknowledged Silvia as having the best overall forecast of the U.S. economy. He is also on the Bloomberg Best List for his forecasts of GDP, the ISM manufacturing index, housing starts and the unemployment rate. Silvia will present the U.S. economic outlook following GHP’s regional outlook. For more about Silvia and Wells Fargo Economics, click here. Full-program tickets include the panel discussion, GHP’s forecast, the luncheon, the keynote speech, and a copy of Houston Economic Highlights. Luncheon tickets include only GHP’s forecast and the keynote address. To register for the event, go to the Events section of GHP’s webpage, www.houston.org, or click here. Homes Sales on Record Setting Pace — Houston-area realtors sold 68,078 homes during the first nine months of ’13, a 22.1 percent increase from the 55,760 homes sold during the comparable period in ’12. If homes sales maintain its current pace, local realtors will sell in excess of 90,000 homes this year, making ’13 the best year on record. The previous record was set in ’06, when 88,799 homes were sold. 1 Copies of GHP’s forecast for ’13 and the Economic Highlights publication mentioned above can also be found at: www.houston.org/economy November 2013 ©2013, Greater Houston Partnership Page 2
  • 3. Units (000s) Sales activity in the midUnit Sales, 12-Month Total, Houston Metro Area, '04 - '14 ’00s was influenced to a 100 Projected '13 Prior Peak, large extent by subprime fi90,736 Units '06 2 nancing. Homes sales to90 First Time day are driven by more solHome Buyers 80 id fundamentals. The region Tax Credit has created more than 70 Influence of 300,000 jobs since HouSubprime Financing ston’s recession ended Jan60 uary ’10. New residents are 50 moving to Houston at the Trough, May '11 59,577 Units rate of 180 per day. Mort40 gage rates remain at historic '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 lows. The average rate for a Source: Houston Association of REALTORS® 30-year conventional mortgage today is two percentage points below the ’07 level. And incomes are up. The U.S. Census Bureau reports that median family household incomes in Houston stood at $65,854 in ’12, up 5.2 percent from ’09. That compares to a 2.4 percent increase for the nation as a whole. Several factors have combined to create a sense of urgency in the market. Active listings have dropped from a recent peak of 55,247 in July ’10 to 32,457 in September ’13, a 42.2 percent decline in available inventory. A balanced market should have a six-month supply of homes. (Month of inHOUSTON-AREA HOMES SALES ventory is the number of Annual Averages months it would take to Home Inventory Year Median Price ($) Active Listings deplete current active inSales (months) ’06 87,799 148,350 44,032 5.3 ventory based on the pri’07 83,736 151,706 50,643 5.9 or 12 months of sales ac’08 69,336 150,724 50,946 6.3 tivity.) Houston now has ’09 63,801 150,963 45,286 6.1 a 3.2 month supply. Con’10 61,004 153,330 51,097 7.1 ventional mortgage rates ’11 63,606 153,618 48,800 7.1 have ticked up from 3.35 ’12 74,163 162,752 40,247 5.1 percent in November ’12 ’13 *90,736 178,237 33,591 **3.2 to 4.49 percent in Sep* projected ** As of 9/13 tember ’13. The median Source: Houston Association of Realtors price of a single-family ® home sold through the Houston Association of Realtors rose from $164,800 in September ’12 to 181,570 in September ’13, a 10.1 percent increase. As a result, buyers are anxious to 2 By some estimates, subprime financing accounted for one in four loan originations nationwide in ’06, the peak of the subprime lending boom. November 2013 ©2013, Greater Houston Partnership Page 3
  • 4. close on homes before prices and mortgage rates increase, inventory decreases further, or another family outbids them. A rule of thumb holds that a family can afford to purchase a home priced 2.5 to 4.0 times their annual income. The median price of a single-family home was $181,570 in September, or 2.8 times the region’s median family income. That suggests local housing remains affordable despite the recent boom. Auto Sales Reflect Consumer Confidence — Houston-area auto dealers sold 265,594 new vehicles in the first nine months of this year, a 6.6 percent increase from the 249,093 sold during the same period in ’12. TexAuto Facts, published by InfoNation, Inc. of Sugar Land, forecasts local auto dealers will sell more than 345,000 vehicles this year. If the forecast holds, ’13 will be the fifth best year on record for local auto sales. The record was set in ’01, when local dealers sold 371,160 vehicles. As with housing, auto sales are being driven by population, employment and income growth along with a healthy dose of pentup demand. Houston is on pace to sell 127,000 more autos in this year than it did in ’09, which marked the depth of the recession. Vehicles sales are important for several reasons. For one, more 400 than 35,000 people here work for motor vehicle and parts dealers. 350 The purchase of new vehicles speeds the replacement of older, 300 less-efficient and less environmentally friendly vehicles. Auto sales 250 generate tax revenue. The medianpriced vehicle sold for $33,330 in 200 September, generating nearly $2,800 in state and local sales tax150 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 es plus additional fees. Perhaps most important, vehicle sales are a Source: TexAuto Facts Report by InfoNation good gauge of consumer confidence. Rising sales suggest that consumers feel secure enough in their employment and personal finances to sign a three-, four- or five-year loan commitment. It’s not a coincidence that the nadir for auto sales during the Great Recession, December ’09, closely coincided with the nadir for job growth, January ’10. Given the current pace of auto sales, consumer confidence in Houston appears to be quite strong. Vehicles (000s) Vehicle Sales, 12-Month Total, Houston Metro Area Flat is the New Up — The Houston Airport System (HAS) handled 38,133,230 passengers through the first nine months of ’13, a 0.3 percent uptick from 38,016,172 passengers handled during the same period in ’12. September year-to-date domestic traffic totaled November 2013 ©2013, Greater Houston Partnership Page 4
  • 5. Domestic and International Passengers Houston Airport System, '04 - '13 55 50 7.4 7.7 8.0 43.7 44.1 42.5 7.8 8.5 8.6 8.8 8.9 40.7 41.0 41.4 41.6 41.6 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 Domestic International Source: Houston Airport System, projections by GHP 45 Passengers (000,000) 31,300,732, essentially flat compared to the 31,279,278 passengers handled during the same period last year. Year-todate international traffic totaled 6,832,498 passengers, up 1.4 percent from 6,736,894 passengers handled during the same period in ’12 year. Houston is on pace to handle 50,481,559 passengers in ’13, which would be the third best year on record. '11 '12 '13* 40 6.4 35 38.5 6.9 41.1 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 '04 '05 * Projected The flattening in domestic traffic and the uptick in international reflects a general trend in aviation and a specific trend for Houston. U.S. carriers are more willing to eliminate poorly traveled routes, sacrificing market share for improved profitability. Service has been cut from both Bush Intercontinental and Hobby airports to approximately 10 cities. Houston’s economy has become more globally focused. Twenty-five years ago, domestic passengers accounted for 92.2 percent of all HAS traffic, international for 7.8 percent. Today, domestic passengers account for 82.4 percent, international for 17.6 percent. International travel will continue to garner a growing share of the market. The city and Southwest Airlines recently broke ground on a $156-million international terminal at Hobby. Starting in ’15, the five-gate facility will accommodate international flights for Southwest Airlines, with service reaching destinations in the Caribbean, Mexico and the northern cities of South America. More Pounding of Hammers — The City of Houston has issued permits for $4.40 billion in construction through September of this year, a 23.2 percent increase over the comparable period in ’12. Residential permits increased 28.1 percent, nonresidential permits 20.7 percent. Once a permit is isNovember 2013 HOUSTON-AREA CONSTRUCTION City of Houston Building Permits - $ Millions Sep YTD ’13 Sep YTD ’12 Residential 1,604.8 1,252.4 Commercial 2,798.4 2,318.4 Total 4,403.2 3,570.8 Source: City of Houston Department of Public Works and Engineering % Change 28.1% 20.7% 23.3% Metro Houston Construction Contracts - $ Billions Residential 6,278.2 Commercial 2,220.8 Total 8,499.0 Source: McGraw Hill Construction ©2013, Greater Houston Partnership 5,383.1 3,022.8 8,405.9 16.6% -26.5% 1.1% Page 5
  • 6. sued, groundbreaking is imminent. Houston’s on pace to issue $5.8 billion in construction permits this year, a 17.1 percent increase over last year, and a record for construction in the city. McGraw Hill Construction reports that $8.499 billion in construction contracts have been awarded in the Houston metro through the first nine months of ’13, a 1.1 percent increase from the $8.405 billion awarded during the same period in ’12. Once a contract has been issued, construction usually starts within the next six months. Readers are cautioned that McGraw Hill Construction contract data are subject to large revisions, usually upward. $ Per Barrel, WTI $ Per MCF, Hnery Hub Mixed Oil and Gas — The Friday closing spot market price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI)—the U.S. benchmark light, sweet crude—averaged $101.07 per barrel in October, up 13.1 percent from its average of $89.39 in October ’12. The Friday closing spot market price for Henry Hub natural gas averaged $3.67 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in October, up 9.1 percent Oil and Natural Gas Prices from its average of $3.36 Monthly Average $16 $160 in October ’12. Though oil Crude Oil $14 $140 and gas prices are up Natural Gas $12 $120 slightly, the rig count has $10 $100 dipped. Baker Hughes re$80 $8 ports that 1,744 rigs were working in North America $6 $60 in October, down 4.9 per$4 $40 cent from the 1,834 work$2 $20 ing last October. Though $0 $0 the rig count has slipped, '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 production continues to Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration rise. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects U.S. crude production to jump from 6.49 million barrels per day (MMbd) in ’12 to 7.47 MMbd in ’13 and to 8.45 MMbd in ’14. The industry has found ways to increase output while reducing labor and equipment inputs―a development with implications for Houston’s employment growth in ’14 and beyond. Shifting Trade Patterns — Through July of this year (the most current data available), more than $144.4 billion in foreign trade has passed through the Houston-Galveston Customs District, down 11.5 percent from the $163.1 billion in trade handled in the first seven months of ’12. Exports totaled $71.9 billion, down 0.1 percent from the $72.0 billion handled during the same period in ’12. Imports totaled $72.5 billion, down 20.4 percent from the $91.1 billion handled over the same period in ’12. Reduced crude shipments accounted for three-fourths of the decline, but imports of industrial machinery, electrical machinery, steel and guar gum (a plant substance used in hydraulic fracturing), also have dropped. November 2013 ©2013, Greater Houston Partnership Page 6
  • 7. Houston’s Absorbent State — There’s no shortage of real estate RETAIL firms monitoring the local marMarket Size (Millions Square Feet) ket. CBRE, Jones Lang LaSalle, Q3 ’13 192.771 458.266 207.134 and Colliers all report that Q3 ’12 190.756 447.239 205.626 Vacancy Rate (%) through September of ’13, HouQ3 ’13 12.1 5.1 7.4 ston has absorbed more office, Q3 ’12 13.6 5.2 7.8 industrial and retail space than it YTD Absorption (Millions Square Feet) did during the YTD Q3 ’13 3.536 4.010 1.479 first three quarters of last year. YTD Q3 ’12 2.908 1.532 0.601 The energy and engineering secAvailable (Millions Square Feet) tors are driving the office marQ3 ’13 23.391 38.331 14.824 ket. Companies are adding to Q3 ’12 26.012 39.725 15.541 their payrolls—and space Currently Under Construction (Millions Square Feet) needs—as they develop shale Q3 ’13 10.210 9.871 1.408 and oil and gas resources. These Q3 ’12 3.949 3.796 1.426 firms in turn have driven the Source: CBRE need for oil field equipment and logistics support, thus driving demand for industrial and warehouse space. Retail absorption is being driven by employment growth, wage growth and pent-up demand finally being met after the end of the Great Recession. COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE OVERVIEW OFFICE INDUSTRIAL Data Lagging, and Maybe Employment — The Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown Metro Area added 57,400 jobs in the first seven months of this year, a 37.0 percent decrease from the same seven months in ’12. Employment METRO HOUSTON JOB GROWTH growth in Houston began to slow in March and January to August Jobs trended down through mid-year. However, it re’12 91,100 mains unclear whether that trend has continued into ’13 57,400 the fall. The October federal government shutdown Difference -33,700 has delayed release of 16 economic indicators com% Change -37.0% piled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This Source: Texas Workforce Commission temporary lack of timely data poses a challenge for economists and policy makers trying to understand the current state of the economy. The jobs report is one of most important indicators that economists track. Employment growth influences many other sectors—home sales, retail sales, auto sales, office leasing, home construction, commercial construction, and more. The business community relies on employment reports to make spending, hiring and investment decisions. Jobs data for September and October won’t be released until December, by which time many firms will have completed their plans for ’14. Patrick Jankowski, Léonie Karkoviata, Ph.D. and Adam Perdue, Ph.D. contributed to this issue of Houston: The Economy at a Glance November 2013 ©2013, Greater Houston Partnership Page 7
  • 8. STAY UP TO DATE! Are you a GHP Member? If so, log in to your account here and access archived issues of Glance available only to Members. You can also sign-up RSS feeds to receive Houston’s latest economic data throughout the month. If you are a nonmember and would like to receive this electronic publication on the first working day of each month, please email your request for Economy at a Glance to dmorrow@houston.org. Include your name, title and phone number and your company’s name and address. For information about joining the Greater Houston Partnership and gaining access to this powerful resource, call Member Services at 713-844-3683. The Key Economic Indicators table is updated whenever any data change — typically, 11 or so times per month. If you would like to receive these updates by e-mail, usually accompanied by commentary, please email your request for Key Economic Indicators to dmorrow@houston.org with the same identifying information. You may request Glance and Indicators in the same email. November 2013 ©2013, Greater Houston Partnership Page 8
  • 9. HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE Houston Economic Indicators A Service of the Greater Houston Partnership YEAR-TO-DATE TOTAL or YTD AVERAGE* MONTHLY DATA Month Most Recent ENERGY U.S. Active Rotary Rigs Spot Crude Oil Price ($/bbl, West Texas Intermediate) Spot Natural Gas ($/MMBtu, Henry Hub) Oct '13 Oct '13 Oct '13 1,744 101.07 3.67 1,834 89.39 3.36 -4.9 13.1 9.1 1,761 * 98.45 * 3.67 * 1,944 * 95.53 * 2.60 * -9.4 3.0 41.0 UTILITIES AND PRODUCTION Houston Purchasing Managers Index Nonresidential Electric Current Sales (Mwh, CNP Service Area) Sep '13 Sep '13 60.8 4,962,735 59.4 4,875,211 2.4 1.8 58.8 * 39,003,592 59.4 * 38,515,346 -1.0 1.3 Sep '13 Sep '13 Sep '13 Sep '13 Sep '13 Sep '13 Sep '13 Sep '13 Sep '13 Sep '13 788,800,000 197,405,000 591,395,000 469,656,360 271,599,962 116,944,334 154,655,628 198,056,398 180,865,944 17,190,454 949,773,000 333,817,000 615,956,000 421,498,067 220,903,165 91,043,086 129,860,079 200,594,902 186,919,137 13,675,765 -16.9 -40.9 -4.0 11.4 22.9 28.4 19.1 -1.3 -3.2 25.7 Sep '13 Sep '13 Sep '13 7,466 181,570 32,457 5,938 164,800 39,319 25.7 10.2 -17.5 Aug '13 Aug '13 Aug '13 2,781,300 549,000 2,232,300 2,700,600 528,700 2,171,900 3.0 3.8 2.8 Aug '13 Aug '13 Aug '13 6.1 6.3 7.3 6.9 6.9 8.2 Aug '13 Sep '13 Sep '13 Sep '13 Sep '13 Sep '13 Sep '13 Sep '13 4,008,949 3,842,169 3,216,154 626,015 69,529 33,261 18,004 15,257 3,873,014 3,755,428 3,143,416 612,012 61,879 35,754 18,283 17,471 3.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 12.4 -7.0 -1.5 -12.7 30,067,075 38,133,230 31,300,732 6,832,498 603,106 305,960 163,186 142,775 29,384,017 34,144,982 28,148,468 5,996,514 548,128 278,547 144,273 134,274 2.3 11.7 11.2 13.9 10.0 9.8 13.1 6.3 Aug '13 4Q12 32,855 30,682 24,914 30,792 31.9 -0.4 265,594 107,511 249,093 100,873 6.6 6.6 Sep '13 Sep '13 208.575 234.149 203.959 231.4 2.3 1.2 204.900 * 232.870 * 202.500 * 229.330 * 1.2 1.5 1Q13 1Q13 1Q13 70.4 100.63 70.88 66.4 94.77 62.97 6.2 12.6 70.4 * 100.63 * 70.88 * 66.4 * 94.77 * 62.97 * 6.2 12.6 June '13 June '13 1,742 449 3,233 914 -46.1 -50.9 CONSTRUCTION Total Building Contracts ($, Houston MSA) Nonresidential Residential Building Permits ($, City of Houston) Nonresidential New Nonresidential Nonresidential Additions/Alterations/Conversions Residential New Residential Residential Additions/Alterations/Conversions Multiple Listing Service (MLS) Activity Property Sales Median Sales Price - SF Detached Active Listings EMPLOYMENT (Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA) Nonfarm Payroll Employment Goods Producing (Natural Resources/Mining/Const/Mfg) Service Providing Unemployment Rate (%) - Not Seasonally Adjusted Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA Texas U.S. FOREIGN TRADE (Houston-Galveston Customs District) Port of Houston Authority Shipments (Short Tons) Air Passengers (Houston Airport System) Domestic Passengers International Passengers Landings and Takeoffs Air Freight (metric tons) Enplaned Deplaned CONSUMERS New Car and Truck Sales (Units, Houston MSA) Total Retail Sales ($000,000, Houston MSA, NAICS Basis) Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers ('82-'84=100) Houston-Galveston-Brazoria CMSA United States Hotel Performance (Houston MSA) Occupancy (%) Average Room Rate ($) Revenue Per Available Room ($) POSTINGS AND FORECLOSURES Postings (Harris County) Foreclosures (Harris County) November 2013 Year % Earlier Change Most Recent 8,499,045,000 2,220,849,000 6,278,196,000 4,403,178,060 2,798,413,708 1,366,998,468 1,431,415,240 1,604,764,352 1,430,736,019 174,028,333 68,078 178,327 * 32,787 * 2,770,088 * 542,150 0 2,227,938 0 6.3 * 6.5 * 7.7 * ©2013, Greater Houston Partnership 10,361 2,685 Year Earlier % Change 8,405,861,000 3,022,800,000 5,383,061,000 3,570,808,109 2,318,442,478 976,965,477 1,341,477,001 1,252,365,631 1,065,320,416 187,045,215 1.1 -26.5 16.6 23.3 20.7 39.9 6.7 28.1 34.3 -7.0 55,760 161,169 * 41,663 * 22.1 10.6 -21.3 2,668,900 * 516,113 * 2,152,788 * 3.8 5.0 3.5 7.1 * 7.1 * 8.3 * 18,747 5,199 -44.7 -48.4 Page 9
  • 10. HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE Sources Rig Count Spot WTI, Spot Natural Gas Houston Purchasing Managers Index Electricity Building Construction Contracts City of Houston Building Permits MLS Data Employment, Unemployment November 2013 Baker Hughes Incorporated U.S. Energy Information Admin. National Association of Purchasing Management – Houston, Inc. CenterPoint Energy McGraw-Hill Construction Building Permit Department, City of Houston Houston Association of Realtors Texas Workforce Commission Port Shipments Aviation Car and Truck Sales Retail Sales Consumer Price Index Hotels Postings, Foreclosures ©2013, Greater Houston Partnership Port of Houston Authority Aviation Department, City of Houston TexAuto Facts Report, InfoNation, Inc., Sugar Land TX Texas Comptroller’s Office U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics PKF Consulting/Hospitality Asset Advisors International Foreclosure Information & Listing Service Page 10
  • 11. HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE HOUSTON MSA NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT (000) Change from July '13 Aug '12 % Change from July '13 Aug '12 Aug '13 July '13 Aug '12 2,781.3 2,435.6 549.0 2,232.3 1,886.6 2,787.4 2,432.9 549.8 2,237.6 1,883.1 2,700.6 2,355.3 528.7 2,171.9 1,826.6 -6.1 2.7 -0.8 -5.3 3.5 80.7 80.3 20.3 60.4 60.0 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 3.0 3.4 3.8 2.8 3.3 Mining and Logging Oil & Gas Extraction Support Activities for Mining 109.2 58.7 48.9 108.2 58.0 48.7 103.0 54.8 47.0 1.0 0.7 0.2 6.2 3.9 1.9 0.9 1.2 0.4 6.0 7.1 4.0 Construction 188.5 189.6 180.3 -1.1 8.2 -0.6 4.5 Manufacturing Durable Goods Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Manufacturing 251.3 171.2 80.1 252.0 172.0 80.0 245.4 165.6 79.8 -0.7 -0.8 0.1 5.9 5.6 0.3 -0.3 -0.5 0.1 2.4 3.4 0.4 Wholesale Trade 151.8 151.8 145.9 0.0 5.9 0.0 4.0 Retail Trade 285.9 284.6 276.8 1.3 9.1 0.5 3.3 Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Utilities Air Transportation Truck Transportation Pipeline Transportation 133.3 16.0 22.1 25.4 10.7 133.1 16.1 22.0 25.1 10.6 129.1 16.3 22.6 24.2 10.4 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 4.2 -0.3 -0.5 1.2 0.3 0.2 -0.6 0.5 1.2 0.9 3.3 -1.8 -2.2 5.0 2.9 Information Telecommunications 32.7 15.5 32.8 15.4 31.8 15.1 -0.1 0.1 0.9 0.4 -0.3 0.6 2.8 2.6 Finance & Insurance 91.4 92.5 89.9 -1.1 1.5 -1.2 1.7 Real Estate & Rental and Leasing 52.0 52.2 50.9 -0.2 1.1 -0.4 2.2 427.0 200.9 24.2 19.2 72.2 27.8 202.2 193.3 81.3 424.2 198.7 24.3 19.1 71.7 27.5 201.7 192.8 80.4 415.0 195.8 24.0 19.2 67.0 27.0 196.4 187.3 75.0 2.8 2.2 -0.1 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.9 12.0 5.1 0.2 0.0 5.2 0.8 5.8 6.0 6.3 0.7 1.1 -0.4 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.2 0.3 1.1 2.9 2.6 0.8 0.0 7.8 3.0 3.0 3.2 8.4 47.0 46.3 45.9 0.7 1.1 1.5 2.4 Health Care & Social Assistance 295.3 294.2 283.0 1.1 12.3 0.4 4.3 Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 30.6 31.2 29.4 -0.6 1.2 -1.9 4.1 Accommodation & Food Services 245.9 244.8 232.2 1.1 13.7 0.4 5.9 93.7 95.4 96.7 -1.7 -3.0 -1.8 -3.1 345.7 27.2 69.1 36.5 249.4 166.6 354.5 27.8 69.1 36.5 257.6 173.9 345.3 27.2 68.6 36.6 249.5 167.4 -8.8 -0.6 0.0 0.0 -8.2 -7.3 0.4 0.0 0.5 -0.1 -0.1 -0.8 -2.5 -2.2 0.0 0.0 -3.2 -4.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 -0.3 0.0 -0.5 Total Nonfarm Payroll Jobs Total Private Goods Producing Service Providing Private Service Providing Professional & Business Services Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Legal Services Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping Architectural, Engineering & Related Services Computer Systems Design & Related Services Admin & Support/Waste Mgt & Remediation Administrative & Support Services Employment Services Educational Services Other Services Government Federal Government State Government State Government Educational Services Local Government Local Government Educational Services SOURCE: Texas Workforce Commission November 2013 ©2013, Greater Houston Partnership Page 11
  • 12. HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX HOUSTON & U.S. 2004-2014 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 HOUSTON Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 U.S. Source: National Association for Purchasing Management - Houston, Inc. HOUSTON MSA EMPLOYMENT 2004-2014 2,900 160 2,850 140 2,800 120 2,700 100 2,650 80 2,600 2,550 60 2,500 40 2,450 20 2,400 2,350 0 2,300 -20 2,250 -40 2,200 12-MONTH CHANGE (000) NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT (000) 2,750 -60 2,150 2,100 -80 2,050 -100 2,000 1,950 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 12-MONTH CHANGE Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 -120 Jan-14 JOBS Source: Texas Workforce Commission November 2013 ©2013, Greater Houston Partnership Page 12
  • 13. HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE GOODS-PRODUCING AND SERVICE-PROVIDING EMPLOYMENT HOUSTON MSA 2004-2014 560 2,300 550 2,250 540 2,200 GOODS-PRODUCING (000) 2,100 520 2,050 510 2,000 500 1,950 490 1,900 480 1,850 470 SERVICE-PROVIDING (000) 2,150 530 1,800 460 1,750 450 1,700 440 1,650 430 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 GOODS-PRODUCING JOBS Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 1,600 Jan-14 Jan-13 Jan-14 SERVICE-PROVIDING JOBS Source: Texas Workforce Commission UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HOUSTON & U.S. 2004-2014 11 10 9 PERCENT OF LABOR FORCE 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 HOUSTON Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 U.S. Source: Texas Workforce Commission November 2013 ©2013, Greater Houston Partnership Page 13
  • 14. HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE SPOT MARKET ENERGY PRICES 2004-2014 24 100 20 80 16 60 12 40 8 20 4 0 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 WTI Monthly Jan-08 Jan-09 WTI 12-MO AVG Jan-10 Jan-11 GAS MONTHLY Jan-12 Jan-13 HENRY HUB NATURAL GAS ($/MMBTU) 28 120 WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE ($/BBL) 140 0 Jan-14 GAS 12-MO AVG Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration INFLATION: 12-MONTH CHANGE 2004-2014 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 HOUSTON CPI-U Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 U.S. CPI-U Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics November 2013 ©2013, Greater Houston Partnership Page 14