November 2010 ©2010, Greater Houston Partnership Page 1
A publication of the Greater Houston Partnership Volume 19, Number...
HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
November 2010 ©2010, Greater Houston Partnership Page 2
September, down 18.3 percent from ...
HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
November 2010 ©2010, Greater Houston Partnership Page 3
from $105.6 billion during the sam...
HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
November 2010 ©2010, Greater Houston Partnership Page 4
The Houston office market experien...
HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
November 2010 ©2010, Greater Houston Partnership Page 5
Houston Economic Indicators
A Serv...
HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
November 2010 ©2010, Greater Houston Partnership Page 6
Sources
Rig Count Baker Hughes Inc...
HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
November 2010 ©2010, Greater Houston Partnership Page 7
HOUSTON MSA NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOY...
HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
November 2010 ©2010, Greater Houston Partnership Page 8
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HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
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HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
November 2010 ©2010, Greater Houston Partnership Page 10
Source: Texas Workforce Commissio...
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Houston Economic Update: November 2010

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Houston Economic Update: November 2010

  1. 1. November 2010 ©2010, Greater Houston Partnership Page 1 A publication of the Greater Houston Partnership Volume 19, Number 11 • November 2010 Recovery Notches a Few Benchmarks — The economic recovery hit three benchmarks recently. • For the 12 months ending September ’10, the Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown metro area added 3,300 jobs, a 0.1 percent increase in employment, the Texas Workforce Commission (TWC) reported. This marks the first year- over-year gain since January ’09. • TWC also reported that the Houston metro area added 4,800 jobs from August ’10 to September ’10, the first September gain since ’07. The gain represents a 0.2 percent increase in employment. • Houston’s unemployment rate dropped half a percentage point to 8.2 percent in September, the first month since April ’08 that the month’s unemploy- ment rate was lower than the same month the previous year. Compared to September ’09, employment is up in mining (3,700 jobs), manu- facturing (2,600 jobs), retail trade (500 jobs), educational services (900 jobs), health care and social assistance (8,300 jobs), arts, entertainment and recreation (500 jobs), accommodation and food services (2,000 jobs), personal services (600 jobs) and total government (700 jobs). Employment is below last year’s level in construction (9,100 jobs), wholesale trade (1,500 jobs), transportation, ware- housing and utilities (1,200 jobs), information (1,700 jobs), finance (1,000 jobs), and professional and business services (1,800 jobs). Employment is flat in real estate. The 3,300 annual jobs gain is a far cry from typical job growth for Houston. In a healthier economy, Houston would be adding jobs at a rate of 55,000-65,000 per year. In the ’06 boom, Houston ended the year with 105,000 more jobs than it started with. In ’07, it ended the year 87,000 jobs ahead of where it started. On the other hand, this time last year TWC reported the loss of 104,300 jobs during the previous 12 months, so the labor market has begun to improve, albeit slowly. Unemployment Claims Drop — Though job growth remains weak, there are signs the labor market is slowly improving. Initial claims for unemployment insur- ance in the 13-county Gulf Coast Workforce Development Area totaled 20,203 in
  2. 2. HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE November 2010 ©2010, Greater Houston Partnership Page 2 September, down 18.3 percent from 24,720 initial claims filed in September ’09, according to Workforce Solutions. This is the lowest number of initial claims filed since November ’08. In the three Septembers prior to the recession (’05, ’06 and ’07), initial claims averaged 12,386, or about 60 percent of this September’s level, so there remains substantial room for improvement. Continuing claims for unemployment benefits totaled 89,941 in September, down 35 percent from 138,267 in September ’09. The 12-month average stood at 112,206 in September and has declined consistently since March. As with initial claims, continuing claims remain high by historic levels. In the three years prior to the recession, September’s continuing claims averaged 89,443 per month. Note: Gulf Coast Workforce Development Area includes Austin, Brazoria, Chambers, Colorado, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, Liberty, Matagorda, Montgomery, Waller, Walker and Wharton Counties. Housing Market Remains Soft — The Houston Association of Realtors® Multiple Listing Service tallied closings on 4,648 properties in September, down 18 percent from September ’09. Sales of single-family homes fell 18.6 percent to 3,903. The decline in total closings follows the artificial gains in the early months of ’10 induced by the first-time buyer tax credit. Although housing demand has weakened, prices have strengthened. The average single-family home price rose 5 percent from September ’09 to $215,250. Luxury home ($500,000+) sales continue to do well, up 6.6 percent from September ’09. New home sales have also continued to register over-the-year declines since the expiration of the tax credit. Net sales of new single-family homes in September ’10 totaled 886, down 26 percent from September ’09, according to a Metrostudy survey, which covers approximately 75 percent of Houston’s new single-family market. September’s net sales remain eight percent above this year’s low. Builders continue to control their inventory. The number of spec homes under con- struction totaled 1,374 in September, 18 percent below the year-earlier level. The number of completed spec homes is 50 percent above year-earlier values, due to an increase in construction earlier this year to accommodate for the growth in demand caused by the tax credit. A rise in the housing market isn’t expected soon. The buying season is over and the foreclosures halt called by the Texas Attorney General may cause prospective homebuyers to postpone their decision to buy. The region’s unemployment and wages must grow before a rise in the housing market is seen. Trade Continues to Grow — The Houston-Galveston Customs District handled $137.1 billion in trade during the first eight months of this year, up 29.9 percent
  3. 3. HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE November 2010 ©2010, Greater Houston Partnership Page 3 from $105.6 billion during the same period last year. Exports totaled $60.2 billion, up 26.9 percent from ’09, and imports totaled $76.9 billion, up 32.3 percent from the same period last year. Five commodities accounted for 73.8 percent of all exports through Houston to date: mineral fuel and oil ($17.1 billion), industrial machinery ($11 billion), organic chemicals ($9 billion), plastics ($4.5 billion) and electric machinery ($2.8 billion). Five commodities accounted for 84.7 percent of all imports through Houston so far this year: mineral fuel and oil ($51.9 billion), industrial machinery ($5.6 billion), iron and steel ($3.3 billion), organic chemicals ($2.5 billion) and electric machinery ($1.9 billion). Year to date, Houston’s top 20 trade partners accounted for 70.1 percent ($96.1 billion) of the region’s total trade. The BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China) contributed $20.7 billion to Houston’s foreign trade; while Houston’s top four European trade partners (Germany, United Kingdom, Netherlands and Belgium) added $15.0 billion in trade value. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of Houston’s trade with the BRIC economies is nearly triple that of the CAGR of Houston’s top four European trade partners. From ’98 to ’09, Houston’s trade activity with the BRIC economies has increased at a CAGR of 17.2 percent where- as the CAGR of Houston’s top four European trade partners was 6.4 percent for the same period. Commercial Market Absorbs Space — Houston absorbed 70,200 square feet of industrial space in the third quarter of ’10 , bringing year-to-date absorption to 2.7 million square feet; an improvement over ’09 but still significantly below historic absorption rates. Rental rates remain flat as landlords aggressively negotiate re- newals and pursue new tenants. With only 607,000 square feet of space under construction (equivalent to 0.15 percent of the current market), industrial absorp- tion should continue to improve. * “Europe” includes Houston’s top four European trade partners: Germany, UK, Netherlands and Belgium. Source: U.S. Census Bureau BRIC Europe*
  4. 4. HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE November 2010 ©2010, Greater Houston Partnership Page 4 The Houston office market experienced the first quarter of positive absorption in nearly two years, with a net gain of 228,000 square feet of leased space in the third quarter of ’10, reports CB Richard Ellis’ Lynn Cirillo. Small and medium sized tenants taking space in the FM 1960/SH 290, Greenway Plaza and Katy Freeway submarkets contributed to the absorption. The outlook for the office market re- mains subdued compared to the industrial market. The amount of office sublease space is expected to surge as large blocks of space hit the market due to the down- sizing of several large office tenants downtown. Patrick Jankowski, Marycruz García and Jenny Hsu contributed to this issue of The Economy at a Glance. ____________________________________ The Greater Houston Partnership is the primary advocate of Houston’s business community and is dedicated to building regional economic prosperity. Visit the Greater Houston Partnership on the World Wide Web at www.houston.org. Contact us by phone at 713-844-3600.
  5. 5. HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE November 2010 ©2010, Greater Houston Partnership Page 5 Houston Economic Indicators A Service of the Greater Houston Partnership Most Year % Most Year % Month Recent Earlier Change Recent Earlier Change ENERGY U.S. Active Rotary Rigs Sep '10 1,655 1,009 64.0 1,496 * 1,078 * 38.8 Spot Crude Oil Price ($/bbl, West Texas Intermediate) Sep '10 74.80 68.79 8.7 77.01 * 57.38 * 34.2 Spot Natural Gas ($/MMBtu, Henry Hub) Sep '10 3.90 2.90 34.6 4.55 * 3.74 * 21.8 UTILITIES AND PRODUCTION Houston Purchasing Managers Index Sep '10 53.6 50.0 7.2 54.8 * 42.8 * 28.0 Nonresidential Electric Current Sales (Mwh, CNP Service Area) Sep '10 4,757,305 4,650,271 2.3 37,956,901 37,601,938 0.9 CONSTRUCTION Total Building Contracts ($, Houston MSA) Sep '10 619,707,000 665,020,000 -6.8 6,294,605,000 6,732,804,000 -6.5 Nonresidential Sep '10 285,665,000 319,911,000 -10.7 2,447,645,000 3,082,992,000 -20.6 Residential Sep '10 334,042,000 345,109,000 -3.2 3,846,960,000 3,649,812,000 5.4 Building Permits ($, City of Houston) Sep '10 243,450,311 343,498,132 -29.1 2,471,895,659 3,041,287,944 -18.7 Nonresidential Sep '10 182,664,499 270,842,801 -32.6 1,681,087,754 2,355,955,590 -28.6 New Nonresidential Sep '10 54,085,889 200,859,340 -73.1 568,268,431 1,106,340,887 -48.6 Nonresidential Additions/Alterations/Conversions Sep '10 128,578,610 69,983,461 83.7 1,112,819,323 1,249,614,703 -10.9 Residential Sep '10 60,785,812 72,655,331 -16.3 790,807,905 685,332,354 15.4 New Residential Sep '10 44,656,248 56,799,575 -21.4 608,345,965 507,862,332 19.8 Residential Additions/Alterations/Conversions Sep '10 16,129,564 15,855,756 1.7 182,461,940 177,470,022 2.8 Multiple Listing Service (MLS) Activity Closings Sep '10 4,648 5,671 -18.0 46,782 47,340 -1.2 Median Sales Price - SF Detached Sep '10 156,250 156,000 0.2 154,429 * 151,239 * 2.1 Active Listings Sep '10 54,027 45,520 18.7 51,027 * 45,486 * 12.2 EMPLOYMENT (Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA) Nonfarm Payroll Employment Sep '10 2,514,600 2,511,300 0.1 2,508,200 * 2,542,800 * -1.4 Goods Producing (Natural Resources/Mining/Const/Mfg) Sep '10 480,700 483,500 -0.6 475,700 * 502,700 * -5.4 Service Providing Sep '10 2,033,900 2,027,800 0.3 2,032,500 * 2,040,100 * -0.4 Unemployment Rate (%) - Not Seasonally Adjusted Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA Sep '10 8.2 8.5 8.5 * 7.4 * Texas Sep '10 7.9 8.1 8.3 * 7.5 * U.S. Sep '10 9.2 9.5 9.8 * 9.2 * Unemployment Insurance Claims (Gulf Coast WDA) Initial Claims Sep '10 20,203 24,720 -18.3 22,371 * 26,306 * -15.0 Continuing Claims Sep '10 89,941 138,267 -35.0 106,431 * 132,890 * -19.9 TRANSPORTATION Port of Houston Authority Shipments (Short Tons) Sep '10 3,462,579 2,967,041 16.7 29,820,234 27,265,449 9.4 Air Passengers (Houston Airport System) Sep '10 3,730,344 3,621,402 3.0 37,016,382 36,408,206 1.7 Domestic Passengers Sep '10 3,141,148 3,101,961 1.3 30,612,812 30,484,815 0.4 International Passengers Sep '10 589,196 519,441 13.4 6,403,570 5,923,391 8.1 Landings and Takeoffs Sep '10 69,305 67,137 3.2 639,030 663,537 -3.7 Air Freight (000 lb) Sep '10 74,524 63,293 17.7 657,990 557,247 18.1 Enplaned Sep '10 37,420 32,221 16.1 343,241 296,161 15.9 Deplaned Sep '10 37,104 31,072 19.4 314,749 261,086 20.6 CONSUMERS New Car and Truck Sales (Units, Houston MSA) Aug '10 23,399 25,683 -8.9 163,218 146,424 11.5 Cars Aug '10 10,024 13,075 -23.3 73,663 67,738 8.7 Trucks, SUVs and Commercials Aug '10 13,375 12,608 6.1 89,555 78,686 13.8 Total Retail Sales ($000,000, Houston MSA, NAICS Basis) 1Q10 20,456 18,791 8.9 20,456 18,791 8.9 Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers ('82-'84=100) Houston-Galveston-Brazoria CMSA Sep '10 195.165 191.687 1.8 193.822 * 190.061 * 2.0 United States Sep '10 218.439 215.969 1.1 217.775 * 213.999 * 1.8 Hotel Performance (Harris County) Occupancy (%) 2Q10 57.6 57.5 55.3 * 60.1 * Average Room Rate ($) 2Q10 95.17 98.64 -3.5 94.50 * 100.52 * -6.0 Revenue Per Available Room ($) 2Q10 54.84 56.72 -3.3 52.30 * 60.43 * -13.5 POSTINGS AND FORECLOSURES Postings (Harris County) Oct '10 4,035 4,198 -3.9 39,072 33,245 17.5 Foreclosures (Harris County) Oct '10 1,268 1,068 18.7 11,770 9,020 30.5 YEAR-TO-DATE TOTAL OR AVERAGE*MONTHLY DATA
  6. 6. HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE November 2010 ©2010, Greater Houston Partnership Page 6 Sources Rig Count Baker Hughes Incorporated Spot WTI, Spot Natural Gas U.S. Energy Information Agency Houston Purchasing Managers National Association of Index Purchasing Management – Houston, Inc. Electricity CenterPoint Energy Building Construction Contracts McGraw-Hill Construction City of Houston Building Permits Building Permit Department, City of Houston MLS Data Houston Association of Realtors® Employment, Unemployment Texas Workforce Commission Port Shipments Port of Houston Authority Aviation Aviation Department, City of Houston Car and Truck Sales TexAuto Facts Report, InfoNation, Inc., Sugar Land TX Retail Sales Texas Comptroller’s Office Consumer Price Index U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Hotels PKF Consulting/Hospitality Asset Advisors International Postings, Foreclosures Foreclosure Information & Listing Service STAY UP TO DATE! If you would like to receive this electronic publication on the first working day of each month, please e- mail your request for Economy at a Glance to rpate@houston.org. Include your name, title and phone number and your company’s name and address. Archived copies are available to Partnership Members in the Members Only section at www.houston.org. For information about joining the Greater Houston Partnership and gaining access to this powerful resource, call Member Services at 713-844-3683. The foregoing table is updated whenever any data change — typically, 11 or so times per month. If you would like to receive those updates by e-mail, usually accompanied by commentary, please e-mail your request for Key Economic Indicators to rpate@houston.org with the same identifying information. You may request Glance and Indicators in the same e-mail.
  7. 7. HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE November 2010 ©2010, Greater Houston Partnership Page 7 HOUSTON MSA NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT (000) Change from % Change from Sep '10 Aug '10 Sep '09 Aug '10 Sept '09 Aug '10 Sep '09 Total Nonfarm Payroll Jobs 2,514.6 2,509.8 2,511.3 4.8 3.3 0.2 0.1 Total Private 2,146.7 2,157.8 2,144.1 -11.1 2.6 -0.5 0.1 Goods Producing 480.7 482.0 483.5 -1.3 -2.8 -0.3 -0.6 Service Providing 2,033.9 2,027.8 2,027.8 6.1 6.1 0.3 0.3 Private Service Providing 1,666.0 1,675.8 1,660.6 -9.8 5.4 -0.6 0.3 Mining and Logging 90.5 90.3 86.8 0.2 3.7 0.2 4.3 Oil & Gas Extraction 51.3 51.5 48.6 -0.2 2.7 -0.4 5.6 Support Activities for Mining 38.0 37.5 37.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 2.2 Construction 168.4 169.6 177.5 -1.2 -9.1 -0.7 -5.1 Manufacturing 221.8 222.1 219.2 -0.3 2.6 -0.1 1.2 Durable Goods Manufacturing 142.6 142.8 138.6 -0.2 4.0 -0.1 2.9 Nondurable Goods Manufacturing 79.2 79.3 80.6 -0.1 -1.4 -0.1 -1.7 Wholesale Trade 128.1 128.6 129.6 -0.5 -1.5 -0.4 -1.2 Retail Trade 262.4 261.4 261.9 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.2 Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities 119.9 120.1 121.1 -0.2 -1.2 -0.2 -1.0 Utilities 16.5 16.6 16.5 -0.1 0.0 -0.6 0.0 Air Transportation 24.0 24.0 24.4 0.0 -0.4 0.0 -1.6 Truck Transportation 18.6 18.5 18.6 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.0 Pipeline Transportation 8.9 8.9 8.7 0.0 0.2 0.0 2.3 Balance, incl Warehousing, Water & Rail Transport 51.9 52.1 52.9 -0.2 -1.0 -0.4 -1.9 Information 32.2 32.5 33.9 -0.3 -1.7 -0.9 -5.0 Telecommunications 17.1 17.3 17.9 -0.2 -0.8 -1.2 -4.5 Finance & Insurance 86.5 86.6 87.5 -0.1 -1.0 -0.1 -1.1 Real Estate & Rental and Leasing 50.4 51.0 50.6 -0.6 -0.2 -1.2 -0.4 Professional & Business Services 350.9 352.9 352.7 -2.0 -1.8 -0.6 -0.5 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 169.4 170.2 171.8 -0.8 -2.4 -0.5 -1.4 Legal Services 22.8 23.0 23.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.9 -1.3 Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping 15.4 15.6 16.8 -0.2 -1.4 -1.3 -8.3 Architectural, Engineering & Related Services 61.2 61.0 60.0 0.2 1.2 0.3 2.0 Computer Systems Design & Related Services 23.2 23.7 23.7 -0.5 -0.5 -2.1 -2.1 Admin & Support/Waste Mgt & Remediation 161.4 162.7 162.1 -1.3 -0.7 -0.8 -0.4 Administrative & Support Services 153.5 154.9 153.8 -1.4 -0.3 -0.9 -0.2 Employment Services 50.7 51.5 51.3 -0.8 -0.6 -1.6 -1.2 Educational Services 43.2 42.2 42.3 1.0 0.9 2.4 2.1 Health Care & Social Assistance 265.5 266.5 257.2 -1.0 8.3 -0.4 3.2 Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 28.7 30.4 28.2 -1.7 0.5 -5.6 1.8 Accommodation & Food Services 206.1 210.4 204.1 -4.3 2.0 -2.0 1.0 Other Services 92.1 93.2 91.5 -1.1 0.6 -1.2 0.7 Government 367.9 352.0 367.2 15.9 0.7 4.5 0.2 Federal Government 28.4 29.9 28.8 -1.5 -0.4 -5.0 -1.4 State Government 70.8 68.9 70.1 1.9 0.7 2.8 1.0 State Government Educational Services 37.6 35.9 36.3 1.7 1.3 4.7 3.6 Local Government 268.7 253.2 268.3 15.5 0.4 6.1 0.1 Local Government Educational Services 181.9 166.5 183.2 15.4 -1.3 9.2 -0.7 SOURCE: Texas Workforce Commission
  8. 8. HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE November 2010 ©2010, Greater Houston Partnership Page 8 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 TOTAL(000),12MONTHSENDING HOUSTON AREA CLOSINGS AND ACTIVE LISTINGS MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE Closings Listings Source: Houston Association of Realtors® -120 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1.95 2.00 2.05 2.10 2.15 2.20 2.25 2.30 2.35 2.40 2.45 2.50 2.55 2.60 2.65 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 12-MONTHCHANGE(000) NONFARMPAYROLLEMPLOYMENT(000,000) HOUSTON MSA EMPLOYMENT 2001-2011 12-MONTH CHANGE JOBS Source: Texas Workforce Commission
  9. 9. HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE November 2010 ©2010, Greater Houston Partnership Page 9 1.60 1.65 1.70 1.75 1.80 1.85 1.90 1.95 2.00 2.05 2.10 2.15 2.20 2.25 430 440 450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 SERVICE-PROVIDING(000,000) GOODS-PRODUCING(000) GOODS-PRODUCING AND SERVICE-PROVIDINGEMPLOYMENT HOUSTON MSA2001-2011 GOODS-PRODUCING JOBS SERVICE-PROVIDING JOBS Source: Texas Workforce Commission 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-09 Jan-11 PERCENTOFLABORFORCE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HOUSTON & U.S. 2001-2011 HOUSTON U.S.
  10. 10. HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE November 2010 ©2010, Greater Houston Partnership Page 10 Source: Texas Workforce Commission 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 HENRYHUBNATURALGAS($/MMBTU) WESTTEXASINTERMEDIATE($/BBL) SPOT MARKET ENERGY PRICES 2001 - 2011 WTI MONTHLY WTI 12-MO AVG GAS MONTHLY GAS 12-MO AVG Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 INFLATION: 12-MONTH CHANGE 2001-2011 HOUSTON CPI-U U.S. CPI-U Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

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