Mapping Avalanche Risk Using Gis Technique In Ceahlau

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The aim of the study was to map the Potential Release Areas of snow avalanches within Ceahlău Mountain.

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Mapping Avalanche Risk Using Gis Technique In Ceahlau

  1. 1. Mapping avalanche risk using GIS technique in Ceahl ă u Mountain A. Cov ăsnianu , I.R. Grigoraş, L.E. State, S. Hogaş
  2. 2. <ul><li>Introduction </li></ul><ul><li>Study area </li></ul><ul><li>Purpose of the paper </li></ul><ul><li>Methodology </li></ul><ul><li>Progress of work </li></ul><ul><li>Results </li></ul><ul><li>Applications </li></ul><ul><li>Problems occured and future abordation </li></ul>Mapping avalanche risk using GIS technique in Ceahl ă u Mountain
  3. 3. <ul><li>Avalanche = The sudden fall or slide of a large mass of material down the side of a mountain. Avalanches may contain snow, ice, rock, soil, or a mixture of these materials. Avalanches can be triggered by changes in temperature, by sound vibrations, or by vibrations in the earth itself. </li></ul><ul><li>Source: http://www.thefreedictionary.com </li></ul>Mapping avalanche risk using GIS technique in Ceahl ă u Mountain Concept <ul><li>Statistics </li></ul><ul><li>- A 35 y ears statistics for Swiss Alps gives a medium value of 75 human/year covered by avalanches, from which 35/year are recorded dead. </li></ul><ul><li>In French Alps a 28 years statistic presents a medium value of 100 persons/year involved in avalanche, with a “black statistic” of 30 death/year. “Black” years were 1969/1970, 1980/1981 and 2005 / 2006 with 55-57 victims . </li></ul><ul><li>Romania also has his history of lost lives in avalanches: B â lea tragedy in 1977 , 17 th of A pr il ( 23 skyers dead, most of them young ones); Gut â i - small avalanche in 2004 february 22 (3 dead); the 2003-2004 winter was calamitous : 8 s kyers and mountaineer s dead until february 24 . </li></ul>Past background in Romania <ul><li>PhD thesis of Mariei Motoiu </li></ul><ul><li>Dinu Mititeanu – articles and publications about avalanche </li></ul><ul><li>Mircea Voiculescu – practical and theoretical materials </li></ul><ul><li>Bogdan Mihai si Ionut Sandric – Digital mapping of avalanche risk </li></ul>
  4. 5. <ul><li>Part of Eastern Carpathians being situated in the flysch area (conglomerates, calcareous rocks “centrally disposed in a highly elevated synclinal structure”- Irina Ungureanu, 2004 ) </li></ul><ul><li>“ Table lands are mostly wavy with high peaks which opposes as aspect with structural surfaces and anticlines. The versants are cut b y degrees , having vertical walls (shelfs, “br âne ” , fences, karling , chutes).”– by I.Bojoi (2000) </li></ul><ul><li>Total area of research: 84.74 km 2 </li></ul><ul><li>Potential area : 31.05 km 2 </li></ul>Mapping avalanche risk using GIS technique in Ceahl ă u Mountain
  5. 6. <ul><li>The aim of the study was to map the Potential Release Areas of snow avalanches within Ceahl ă u Mountain. </li></ul><ul><li>The idea of this project came after a course from faculty. Then we continue our research having behind the previous “signals” from media, salvamont service, local community about avalanches in this area. </li></ul><ul><li>To evaluate the avalanche risk of those regions </li></ul><ul><li>To represents a useful tool for tourism activity and not only </li></ul>Mapping avalanche risk using GIS technique in Ceahl ă u Mountain
  6. 7. <ul><li>Adaptation by J. HERSKO şi G. BUGAR – 2000 </li></ul><ul><li>Model updated from Belianske Tatry Mts. </li></ul><ul><li>RAv = (S + Ex + Al + Fx) * Rg </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Where , </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>S = slope </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Ex= aspect </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Al=altitude </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Fx=landform </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Rg=roughness </li></ul></ul></ul>Mapping avalanche risk using GIS technique in Ceahl ă u Mountain
  7. 8. Mapping avalanche risk using GIS technique in Ceahl ă u Mountain <ul><li>Digital Terrain Model was obtained from digitization of topographic maps at 1:5.000 scale. </li></ul><ul><li>The result was a model with a 3m cell resolution. </li></ul><ul><li>The accuracy of the model was determined by Topo to Raster tool from Esri ArcInfo. </li></ul>
  8. 9. Mapping avalanche risk using GIS technique in Ceahl ă u Mountain <ul><li>Slope map . </li></ul><ul><li>The slope values of more then 35 degrees are representative for evaluating the avalanche risk. </li></ul><ul><li>The lowest values of less than 15 degrees slope are in the table land area . </li></ul>
  9. 10. Mapping avalanche risk using GIS technique in Ceahl ă u Mountain Aspect map The South, South-West and South-East versants are the most representative due to the fact that the avalanche risk is higher in those areas.
  10. 11. Mapping avalanche risk using GIS technique in Ceahl ă u Mountain Landforms map describes the concavit y/convexity of the terrain. The landform is very useful for snow avalanche risk because it determines the probable snow accumulation areas or the possible areas of propagation . The concave areas are mostly represented by the bed’s rivers. The convex one’s , in general , are represented by the highest slope values.
  11. 12. <ul><li>Study area (31 km 2 ) was divided in 448 cells </li></ul><ul><li>Cell size = (125*125 m) = 1.5 ha </li></ul><ul><li>Every cell risk coefficient was independently obtained by entering the specific parameters of that area in the final formula. </li></ul><ul><li>A class of values of ROA was established. </li></ul><ul><li>Finally , for each cell we obtained values varying from 0 to 16.5 </li></ul>Mapping avalanche risk using GIS technique in Ceahl ă u Mountain
  12. 13. Mapping avalanche risk using GIS technique in Ceahl ă u Mountain The higher probability of producing a snow avalanche is near Toaca Peak and close to Dochia chalet. Avalanche risk classes: 0-5 = low risk (tourism activity not forbidden in winter season) 5-10 = moderate risk (tourism activity permitted only for experienced users) 10-15 = considerable risk (tourism activity admitted under certain conditions) 15-20 = high risk (restricted under certain conditions).
  13. 14. Mapping avalanche risk using GIS technique in Ceahl ă u Mountain - The tourist tracks were obtained by GPS technique - Any of those three tourist tracks passes through areas with avalanche risk
  14. 15. Mapping avalanche risk using GIS technique in Ceahl ă u Mountain
  15. 16. <ul><li>Tourism activity – a better perception of the area, more info for tourists, prevention, maybe a future interactive webmap (WEBGIS) giving a better precision for tourists routes and for the sectors possibly of being afected </li></ul><ul><li>Management of Natural Park Ceahlău </li></ul><ul><li>Can be applied in similar mountain areas </li></ul><ul><li>Educational goal </li></ul>Mapping avalanche risk using GIS technique in Ceahl ă u Mountain
  16. 17. <ul><li>Different editions of topographic maps </li></ul><ul><li>Lack of GPS data ( tourist tracks, avalanche mapping) </li></ul>Problems occurred : Future abordation : <ul><li>Taking into account the climatologic data (solar radiation, wind speed and direction, air temperature, snow texture, consistency) for the future research objective </li></ul><ul><li>A more detail cell size resolution </li></ul><ul><li>Future involvement of the authorities which governs the National Park </li></ul>Mapping avalanche risk using GIS technique in Ceahl ă u Mountain

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