Estudo macro-econômico de países da AL & Mexico
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Estudo macro-econômico de países da AL & Mexico. Uma análise de diversos indicadores comparando o desempenho do Brasil com outros países. ...

Estudo macro-econômico de países da AL & Mexico. Uma análise de diversos indicadores comparando o desempenho do Brasil com outros países.

Fontes utilizadas neste estudo:

"World Economic Outlook Database, October 2013" - IMF, International Monetary Fund (http://www.imf.org/)

http://www.indexmundi.com/

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Estudo macro-econômico de países da AL & Mexico Estudo macro-econômico de países da AL & Mexico Presentation Transcript

  • Estudo Macro-Econômico Países Latino Americanos + Mexico 23 de Fevereiro, 2014 L.G. Couto http://besteilog.blogspot.com.br/
  • Disclaimer “As opiniões expressadas nesta apresentação e nas páginas seguintes são apenas as opiniões do autor e não necessariamente as opinições do FMI (International Monetary Fund) e/ou do Indexmundi. O autor deste documento não garante a acuracidade e confiabilidade da informação aqui provida.” “The opinions expressed in this presentation and on the following slides are solely those of the presenter and not necessarily those of International Monetary Fund and/or Indexmundi. The presenter does not guarantee the accuracy or reliability of the information provided herein.” Fontes públicas de pesquisa (Public data sources): http://www.imf.org/ http://www.indexmundi.com/ World Economic Outlook Database, October 2013 Feb, 23rd 2014 http://besteilog.blogspot.com.br/ 2
  • PIB bruto por país [1] PIB por país , de 2011 a 2018 International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2013 http://www.imf.org/ Country Brazil Mexico Argentina Colombia Venezuela Chile Peru Ecuador Uruguay Bolivia Paraguay Subject Descriptor Gross domestic product, current prices Gross domestic product, current prices Gross domestic product, current prices Gross domestic product, current prices Gross domestic product, current prices Gross domestic product, current prices Gross domestic product, current prices Gross domestic product, current prices Gross domestic product, current prices Gross domestic product, current prices Gross domestic product, current prices Units USD Bi USD Bi USD Bi USD Bi USD Bi USD Bi USD Bi USD Bi USD Bi USD Bi USD Bi Scale Billions Billions Billions Billions Billions Billions Billions Billions Billions Billions Billions 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 $2.474,635 $2.253,090 $2.190,218 $2.169,802 $2.294,686 $2.429,327 $2.575,389 $1.160,727 $1.177,398 $1.327,021 $1.395,563 $1.468,449 $1.547,995 $1.634,482 $444,605 $475,211 $484,596 $497,194 $514,662 $538,485 $562,733 $330,759 $369,018 $369,225 $388,858 $411,563 $437,865 $465,050 $316,482 $381,286 $367,482 $377,043 $385,694 $397,581 $411,878 $250,994 $268,177 $281,666 $301,935 $325,782 $351,244 $378,180 $178,371 $198,851 $210,349 $220,564 $242,257 $261,895 $282,185 $76,770 $84,040 $91,412 $96,748 $102,436 $108,569 $115,179 $46,435 $49,920 $57,107 $59,875 $63,095 $66,542 $70,682 $24,121 $27,232 $29,805 $32,151 $34,846 $37,864 $41,211 $24,080 $26,073 $30,558 $32,705 $34,934 $37,267 $40,064 $2.730,232 $1.729,784 $589,086 $495,848 $428,121 $407,181 $304,983 $122,121 $75,362 $45,017 $43,740 Estimates Start After 2012 2012 2012 2012 2010 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 2012 $3.000,000 MAROLINHA ZERO $2.500,000 Brazil Mexico Argentina $2.000,000 Colombia +50% Venezuela $1.500,000 Chile Peru Ecuador $1.000,000 Uruguay Bolivia Paraguay $500,000 $0,000 1 Feb, 23rd 2014 2 3 4 5 6 http://besteilog.blogspot.com.br/ 7 8 3
  • PIB per capita [2] PIB por país per capita , de 2011 a 2018 International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2013 http://www.imf.org/ Country Chile Uruguay Brazil Argentina Venezuela Mexico Colombia Peru Ecuador Paraguay Bolivia Subject Descriptor Units Scale 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Gross domestic product per capita, current prices Unit USD Gross domestic product per capita, current prices Unit USD Gross domestic product per capita, current prices Unit USD Gross domestic product per capita, current prices Unit USD Gross domestic product per capita, current prices Unit USD Gross domestic product per capita, current prices Unit USD Gross domestic product per capita, current prices Unit USD Gross domestic product per capita, current prices Unit USD Gross domestic product per capita, current prices Unit USD Gross domestic product per capita, current prices Unit USD Gross domestic product per capita, current prices Unit USD Units Units Units Units Units Units Units Units Units Units Units $14.551,690 $13.784,560 $12.583,636 $10.958,901 $10.886,046 $10.033,523 $7.182,362 $5.943,846 $5.324,548 $3.666,301 $2.269,352 $15.410,116 $14.766,832 $11.358,537 $11.582,480 $12.917,518 $10.058,503 $7.919,169 $6.525,364 $5.742,645 $3.903,662 $2.514,320 $16.043,096 $16.833,653 $10.957,613 $11.679,304 $12.255,497 $11.224,484 $7.830,674 $6.797,339 $6.154,058 $4.499,206 $2.700,526 $17.047,871 $17.588,130 $10.772,921 $11.849,104 $12.379,512 $11.687,363 $8.150,342 $7.018,877 $6.417,098 $4.735,332 $2.858,838 $18.235,601 $18.469,399 $11.306,322 $12.128,411 $12.468,493 $12.175,999 $8.525,062 $7.591,588 $6.693,918 $4.973,976 $3.040,668 $19.511,450 $19.410,451 $11.894,288 $12.548,076 $12.655,508 $12.708,488 $8.963,511 $8.081,924 $6.989,853 $5.217,887 $3.242,378 $20.849,285 $20.546,141 $12.529,958 $12.966,668 $12.908,868 $13.285,664 $9.408,352 $8.575,227 $7.305,850 $5.516,346 $3.463,232 $25.000,000 Estimates Start After $22.278,818 2009 $21.830,158 2005 $13.199,600 2010 $13.422,307 2010 $13.210,683 2010 $13.921,098 2012 $9.913,773 2009 $9.126,832 2009 $7.631,694 2010 $5.922,360 2012 $3.676,421 1981 2018 +57 Chile $20.000,000 Uruguay Brazil Argentina $15.000,000 Venezuela Mexico Colombia $10.000,000 Peru Ecuador Paraguay $5.000,000 Bolivia $0,000 1 Feb, 23rd 2014 2 3 4 5 6 http://besteilog.blogspot.com.br/ 7 8 Em sete anos o Brasil passará de 3º para o 6º lugar em PIB per capita sendo ultrapassado pela Argentina, Venezuela e Mexico. 4
  • Balança comercial [3] Balança Comercial por país , de 2011 a 2018 International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2013 http://www.imf.org/ Country Bolivia Paraguay Uruguay Argentina Ecuador Venezuela Peru Chile Colombia Mexico Brazil Subject Descriptor Acc Balance USB Bi Acc Balance USB Bi Acc Balance USB Bi Acc Balance USB Bi Acc Balance USB Bi Acc Balance USB Bi Acc Balance USB Bi Acc Balance USB Bi Acc Balance USB Bi Acc Balance USB Bi Acc Balance USB Bi Scale Billions Billions Billions Billions Billions Billions Billions Billions Billions Billions Billions 2011 $0,077 $0,294 -$1,369 -$2,674 -$0,226 $24,387 -$3,338 -$3,284 -$9,643 -$11,836 -$52,473 2012 $2,127 $0,098 -$2,685 -$0,195 -$0,157 $11,016 -$7,135 -$9,497 -$11,907 -$14,184 -$54,231 2013 $1,259 $0,167 -$2,773 -$3,637 -$0,989 $10,351 -$10,275 -$12,885 -$11,901 -$17,747 -$74,012 2014 $1,004 -$0,064 -$2,432 -$3,749 -$1,364 $8,285 -$11,223 -$11,968 -$12,558 -$20,649 -$68,561 2015 $0,665 $0,080 -$2,072 -$3,960 -$2,382 $2,799 -$10,259 -$11,001 -$13,046 -$23,182 -$72,906 2016 $0,611 $0,142 -$2,278 -$3,615 -$3,123 -$2,163 -$10,227 -$10,859 -$13,412 -$23,007 -$81,600 2017 $0,667 $0,165 -$2,382 -$4,271 -$3,861 -$6,488 -$10,376 -$11,260 -$13,855 -$24,058 -$87,155 2018 $0,641 $0,182 -$2,657 -$4,490 -$4,609 -$10,470 -$10,557 -$12,187 -$13,484 -$28,665 -$92,114 $40,000 $20,000 Venezuela Bolivia $0,000 Paraguay 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Uruguay -$20,000 Argentina Ecuador Peru -$40,000 -$52,473 Chile -$54,231 Colombia -$60,000 -$68,561 -$74,012 -$80,000 Mexico -$72,906 Brazil -$81,600 -$87,155 -$92,114 -$100,000 Feb, 23rd 2014 http://besteilog.blogspot.com.br/ 5
  • Débitos e compromissos a pagar do governo [4] Dívida pública por país em % do PIB , de 2011 a 2018 International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2013 http://www.imf.org/ Country Brazil Uruguay Argentina Mexico Venezuela Colombia Bolivia Peru Ecuador Paraguay Chile Subject Descriptor General government gross debt General government gross debt General government gross debt General government gross debt General government gross debt General government gross debt General government gross debt General government gross debt General government gross debt General government gross debt General government gross debt Units Scale % GDP % GDP % GDP % GDP % GDP % GDP % GDP % GDP % GDP % GDP % GDP 2011 % % % % % % % % % % % 64,7 60,0 44,9 43,6 43,3 35,4 34,7 22,3 19,0 12,4 11,1 2012 2013 68,0 59,6 47,7 43,5 46,0 32,6 33,4 20,5 22,2 11,6 11,9 2014 68,3 59,0 47,8 44,0 53,4 32,3 30,8 18,6 22,5 12,8 12,9 69,0 59,1 45,9 45,8 56,8 31,6 29,2 17,1 23,3 12,8 13,2 2015 2016 68,8 58,9 45,4 46,6 59,8 30,2 27,6 15,8 23,3 12,8 13,5 2017 68,4 58,6 42,9 46,9 63,0 28,8 26,0 14,6 23,6 12,6 13,7 67,5 57,7 41,1 46,6 65,8 27,5 24,5 13,4 23,3 12,5 13,8 Estimates Start After 66,7 2012 56,5 2010 38,9 2012 46,3 2012 68,4 2010 26,2 2012 22,9 2012 12,4 2012 22,9 2012 12,4 2012 13,9 Entre 20112012 e 2018 o governo do PT 2018 será incapaz, ou incompetente, de fazer um trabalho para redução da dívida pública do país, resultado dos programas sociais "bolsa-voto". 80,0 70,0 69,0 68,3 68,0 68,8 68,4 67,5 66,7 64,7 Brazil Uruguay 60,0 Argentina Mexico 50,0 Venezuela 40,0 Colombia Bolivia 30,0 Peru Ecuador 20,0 Paraguay Chile 10,0 0,0 1 Feb, 23rd 2014 2 3 4 5 6 http://besteilog.blogspot.com.br/ 7 8 6
  • Inflação média de preços ao consumidor [5] Inflação média de preços ao consumidor por país per capita , de 2011 a 2018 International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2013 http://www.imf.org/ Country Venezuela Bolivia Argentina Paraguay Uruguay Brazil Ecuador Colombia Mexico Peru Chile Subject Descriptor Inflation, average consumer prices Inflation, average consumer prices Inflation, average consumer prices Inflation, average consumer prices Inflation, average consumer prices Inflation, average consumer prices Inflation, average consumer prices Inflation, average consumer prices Inflation, average consumer prices Inflation, average consumer prices Inflation, average consumer prices Units % change % change % change % change % change % change % change % change % change % change % change Scale 2011 % % % % % % % % % % % 2012 26,1 9,9 9,8 8,3 8,1 6,6 4,5 3,4 3,4 3,4 3,3 2013 21,1 4,5 10,0 3,7 8,1 5,4 5,1 3,2 4,1 3,7 3,0 2014 37,9 4,8 10,5 3,2 8,5 6,3 2,8 2,2 3,6 2,8 1,7 38,0 4,1 11,4 4,6 8,6 5,8 2,4 3,0 3,0 2,5 3,0 2015 2016 31,0 4,0 10,8 4,8 8,1 5,3 2,6 3,0 3,0 2,0 3,0 2017 25,5 4,0 10,8 4,4 7,8 4,7 2,7 3,0 3,0 2,0 3,0 21,5 4,0 10,8 4,1 7,4 4,5 2,7 3,0 3,0 2,0 3,0 2018 20,0 4,0 10,8 4,0 7,0 4,5 2,7 3,0 3,0 2,0 3,0 Estimates Start After 2010 2012 2012 2012 2010 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 40,0 35,0 Venezuela Bolivia 30,0 Argentina Paraguay 25,0 Uruguay 20,0 Brazil Ecuador 15,0 Colombia Mexico 10,0 Peru Chile 5,0 0,0 1 Feb, 23rd 2014 2 3 4 5 6 http://besteilog.blogspot.com.br/ 7 8 7
  • Volume de Importação vs Exportação (Variação %) [6] [7] Volume de exportação e importação por país , de 2011 a 2018 International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2013 * Países com PIB > $100 Bi em 2013 http://www.imf.org/ Country Subject Descriptor Volume of exports of goods and services Volume of imports of goods and services Volume of exports of goods and services Volume of imports of goods and services Volume of exports of goods and services Volume of imports of goods and services Volume of exports of goods and services Volume of imports of goods and services Volume of exports of goods and services Volume of imports of goods and services Volume of exports of goods and services Volume of imports of goods and services Volume of exports of goods and services Volume of imports of goods and services Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Venezuela Units % change % change % change % change % change % change % change % change % change % change % change % change % change % change Scale % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 2011 2012 3,4 22,3 2,9 8,9 5,0 14,6 13,5 21,7 7,5 7,1 8,4 12,7 4,7 15,4 2013 -6,2 -5,9 -0,3 -2,3 0,9 4,8 4,7 10,7 3,5 3,7 2,0 9,4 1,6 24,4 2014 2015 6,1 7,7 1,4 6,2 3,9 5,4 5,0 2,3 2,6 0,2 -1,8 7,0 -6,5 -8,4 5,8 2,1 5,5 0,5 4,3 4,8 6,9 5,2 4,7 5,9 8,9 6,8 0,2 -1,5 2016 3,5 3,0 7,0 5,2 3,2 4,5 7,0 6,3 6,7 7,2 12,3 6,8 0,3 -0,7 2017 2,7 3,2 7,0 5,3 3,2 4,5 5,7 4,8 6,8 7,7 8,4 6,6 0,3 0,8 2018 3,2 3,2 7,3 4,9 3,4 4,5 5,1 4,9 7,1 7,7 7,8 6,5 0,3 1,6 3,3 3,2 7,7 5,2 3,5 4,5 5,1 3,5 7,9 7,5 7,3 6,5 0,2 2,1 Estimates Start After 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2010 2010 25,0 ARG (EXP) ARG (IMP) BRA (EXP) BRA (IMP) CHI (EXP) CHI (IMP) COL (EXP) COL (IMP) MEX (EXP) MEX (IMP) PER (EXP) PER (IMP) VEN (EXP) VEN (IMP) 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0,0 1 -5,0 -10,0 Feb, 23rd 2014 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Para reverter a tendência de balança comercial desfavorável, conforme aponta o histórico de 2011 até 2013, o país depende principalmente, da Petrobras (e do pré-sal), do minério da Vale (atrelado a recuperação dos mercados emergentes) e da Embraer (também dependendo da recuperação da economia global). Ou seja, nossa balança comercial depende 100% da capacidade de recuperação dos países desenvolvidos e a China. Fora a Embraer, tudo o que exportamos é matéria-prima, não desenvolvemos tecnologia alguma interna para exportação. http://besteilog.blogspot.com.br/ 8
  • Indíces sócio-econômicos (FMI & Indexmundi) http://www.indexmundi.com/ Índices econômicos País PIB 2011 em US$ Bi Argentina Ecuador Peru Colombia Chile Uruguay Bolivia Venezuela Paraguay Brazil $445 $77 $178 $331 $251 $46 $24 $316 $24 $2.475 US$ PIB Per Capita (2011) Em US$1 $10.959 $5.325 $5.944 $7.182 $14.552 $13.785 $2.269 $10.886 $3.666 $12.584 PIB 2018 em US$ Bi [8] $589 $122 $305 $496 $407 $75 $45 $428 $40 $2.730 US$ PIB Per Capita (2018) Em US$1 [9] $13.422 $7.632 $9.127 $9.914 $22.279 $21.830 $3.676 $13.211 $5.922 $13.200 Previsão Cresc.% PIB 2013'18 32% 59% 71% 50% 62% 62% 87% 35% 66% 10% Previsão Cresc.% PIB p.c. 2013'18 22% 43% 54% 38% 53% 58% 62% 21% 62% 5% Cresc. Prod. Industrial (%) 7% (2012) 10% (2011) 5% (2011) 5% (2011) 6% (2011) -1% (2011) 4% (2010) 3% (2011) 7% (2010) 0% (2011) Índice de Desemprego 2011 (% pop) 7% 4% 8% 11% 7% 6% 6% 8% 6% 6% Deficit Público Dívida Extena % PIB (2011) US$ Bi (2012) 41% 22% 20% 45% 9% 51% 37% 35% 14% 54% $137 $10 $37 $69 $99 $15 $5 $90 $5 $398 % Div. Ext. sobre PIB (2012) 31% 13% 21% 21% 39% 32% 21% 28% 21% 16% Índices sociais País Argentina Ecuador Peru Colombia Chile Uruguay Bolivia Venezuela Paraguay Brazil Índice de alfabetização 97% (2001) 91% (2001) 93% (2007) 90% (2005) 96% (2002) 98% (2003) 87% (2001) 93% (2001) 94% (2003) 89% (2004) Feb, 23rd 2014 % do PIB gasto Leitos de com saúde Hospital / 1K (2009) habitantes 10% 4 (2005) 5% 2 (2008) 5% 2 (2009) 6% 1 (2007) 8% 2 (2009) 7% 3 (2007) 5% 1 (2009) N/D 1 (2007) 7% 1 (2009) 9% 2 (2009) % Pop. abaixo da linha da pobreza 30% (2012) 29% (2011) 31% (2010) 37% (2010) 15% (2009) 19% (2012) 51% (2012) 27% (2011) 35% (2010) 21% (2009) 1. 2. 3. 4. Segundo a previsão do FMI, o Brasil será o país com menor crescimento % do PIB em toda Am. Latina assim como o crescimento do PIB per capita será de apenas 5% em sete anos (2011-2018), também o menor entre todos os países da AL; Dados do Indexmundi de 2011 apontam que a produção industrial brasileira ficou estagnada de 2010-201, o que se repetiu em 2012 e 2013; O Brasil é o país com o maior % de deficit público / PIB da Am Latina e também tem a maior dívida externa em US$ Bi da Am. Latina, porém % sobre o PIB o país encontrase melhor que a média dos outros países; e Não encontrei dados, fora fontes do governo, sobre índice de analfabetismo no Brasil, acredito que tenha melhorado, mas acredito que mesmo atulizado a situação deve ter melhorado pouco. http://besteilog.blogspot.com.br/ 9
  • Notas e esclarecimentos [1] Gross domestic product, current prices (U.S. dollars) Values are based upon GDP in national currency converted to U.S. dollars using market exchange rates (yearly average). Exchange rate projections are provided by country economists for the group of other emerging market and developing countries. Exchanges rates for advanced economies are established in the WEO assumptions for each WEO exercise. Expenditure-based GDP is total final expenditures at purchasers’ prices (including the f.o.b. value of exports of goods and services), less the f.o.b. value of imports of goods and services. [SNA 1993] [2] Gross domestic product per capita, current prices (U.S. dollars) GDP is expressed in current U.S. dollars per person. Data are derived by first converting GDP in national currency to U.S. dollars and then dividing it by total population. [3] Current account balance (U.S. dollars) Current account is all transactions other than those in financial and capital items. The major classifications are goods and services, income and current transfers. The focus of the BOP is on transactions (between an economy and the rest of the world) in goods, services, and income. [4] General government gross debt (Percent of GDP) Gross debt consists of all liabilities that require payment or payments of interest and/or principal by the debtor to the creditor at a date or dates in the future. This includes debt liabilities in the form of SDRs, currency and deposits, debt securities, loans, insurance, pensions and standardized guarantee schemes, and other accounts payable. Thus, all liabilities in the GFSM 2001 system are debt, except for equity and investment fund shares and financial derivatives and employee stock options. Debt can be valued at current market, nominal, or face values (GFSM 2001, paragraph 7.110). [5] Inflation, average consumer prices (Percent change) Annual percentages of average consumer prices are year-on-year changes. [6] Volume of imports of goods and services (Percent change) Percent change of volume of imports refers to the aggregate change in the quantities of total imports whose characteristics are unchanged. The goods and services and their prices are held constant, therefore changes are due to changes in quantities only. [Export and Import Price Index Manual: Theory and Practice, Glossary] [7] Volume of exports of goods and services (Percent change) Percent change of volume of exports refers to the aggregate change in the quantities of total exports whose characteristics are unchanged. The goods and services and their prices are held constant, therefore changes are due to changes in quantities only. [Export and Import Price Index Manual: Theory and Practice, Glossary] [8] [9] International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2013 Feb, 23rd 2014 http://besteilog.blogspot.com.br/ 10