Re-integration: Don't fear "closed" systems

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IT goes through cycles of being integrated (mainframes, Apple) or modular (WinTel, Web 2.0). This presentation uses a handful of examples to show that we're entering an integrated phase.

IT goes through cycles of being integrated (mainframes, Apple) or modular (WinTel, Web 2.0). This presentation uses a handful of examples to show that we're entering an integrated phase.

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  • 1. Re-integration:Don’t fear “closed” systems @cote(I work at Dell, but this is my own content/opinion.) DevOpsDays Mountain View – June 29th, 2012
  • 2. “There’s nothing new in IT.” Modular Integrated The current state of the cycle determines how you architect, build, deliver, support, and sell applications.
  • 3. Mainframes to PC explosion
  • 4. WinTel to iPad(Illustrative – subject was actually using Linux.)
  • 5. The Obvious One Client/mobile/tabletSource: “The rise and fall of personal computing,” Horace Dediu, Jan 2012
  • 6. Finally, a successful Linux desktop Client/mobile/tablet ThinkPad + Ubuntu Apple + Apple August, 2006 Oct, 2010
  • 7. The modular king goes integrated Client/mobile/tabletSource: https://twitter.com/JoeTierney/status/215678004809039872/
  • 8. Integrated Servers Converged Infrastructure Dell vStart Cisco UCS HP Virtual/Cloud System IBM PureSystems “IT departments spend more than 75% of their time and resources on system deployment and management. The market is in need of new modular infrastructure platforms that are capable of supporting applications connected to a large number of users and devices.”Source: “Converged Infrastructure Survey 2011,” IDC, Dec 2011.
  • 9. UCS sales are going crazy Converged Infrastructure Cisco UCS Sales ($M) $700 $600 $633 $500 $400 $300 $200 $239 $100 $0 2010 2011 (Context: 2010 server market was $53.7B, 2011 was $56.6B)Source: “Worldwide and Regional Server 2012–2016 Forecast,” IDC, May 2012
  • 10. Use is “low,” but near doubling Converged InfrastructureSource: “Converged Infrastructure Survey 2011,” IDC, Dec 2011.
  • 11. PaaS = + back office + ALM + delivery Platform as a ServiceSource: Dell Corporate Strategy, Nov 2011
  • 12. PaaS apps have been growing Platform as a Service # of Apps as of Oct. 2011 600,000 For reference 200,000 220,000 150,000 4,500 iOS AppEngine Heroku Force.com CloudBeesSource: company websites
  • 13. What’s $8B between friends? (Gratuitous analyst poking) PaaS Forecast Comparisons ($M) Platform as a Service $10,000 $9,000 $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 ($M) $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 451 $120.00 $267.00 $444.00 $709.00 $1,137.00 Gartner (Aug 11) $330.70 $512.40 $707.40 $927.30 $1,179.60 $1,463.80 $1,755.00 Gartner (June 11) $1,300 $1,400 $1,500 $1,800 $2,000 $2,400.00 Forrester Private $31.34 $65.00 $134.34 $275.81 $558.60 $1,156.68 $2,280.03 $4,140.28 Forrester Public $49.52 $118.76 $308.02 $820.39 $2,081.09 $4,378.52 $7,391.30 $9,801.55 NOTE: Forrester is more inclusive of existing appdev/middleware TAM & SaaS take. Gartner drops forecasts between June 2011 and August 2011.Source: analyst cloud forecasts available in 2011
  • 14. My friends suck(ed) Web 2.0 vs. FacebookSource: Way Back Machine, flickr.com in Feb 2005
  • 15. Now I suckWeb 2.0 vs. Facebook
  • 16. “Walled gardens,” sure Locked into technology stacks $$$$$$“One throat to choke” = One BIG check to write $$$$$$ Slow access to innovation
  • 17. …built on open technologiesSource: http://redmonk.com/sogrady/2012/06/13/new-relic-stack-data/
  • 18. …with open APIsSource: http://blog.programmableweb.com/2011/01/03/api-growth-doubles-in-2010-social-and-mobile-are-trends/
  • 19. IT gets incrementally better Integrated Closed Modular Open Integrated Open-ish
  • 20. Thanks! @cotehttp://www.DrunkAndRetired.com http://www.dell.com/sputnik