Pat Murphy Cs For May 2009 Presentations Apr 29
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  • Opening Sustainability has been a hot topic for 20 years ever since the publication of the UN Broderbund Commission with its definition of sustainable development as “development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” (WCED, 1990) This definition assumed the continued growth of a fossil fuel based economy. For 20 years we have talked about sustainability as we did more and more damage to the planet. But the human situation is moving from concern to desperation and we can no longer talk about going green and being more sustainable as our day to day actions brings us closer and closer to a catastrophe. The 200 year energy intensive pollution generating industrial period has reached its peak and we will return to a time and a way of living that I associated with the words home and community. The planet cannot support the continued transformation of buried carbon to the atmosphere and oceans by fossil fuel burning. We are reaching a watershed moment in human history. For two centuries we slowly mechanized the world and for 60 years rapidly mechanized it. That period is near its end.

Pat Murphy Cs For May 2009 Presentations Apr 29 Pat Murphy Cs For May 2009 Presentations Apr 29 Presentation Transcript

  • Plan C – Community Solutions for Housing, Transportation and Food 2009 Sustainable Energy Summit University of Massachusetts, Amherst May 2, 2009 Presented by Pat Murphy – Executive Director Community Solutions (CS) Yellow Springs, OH 45387
  • Arthur Morgan Institute for Community Solutions  Founded in 1940 to support Small Local Communities  Represents today’s trend to re-localization/localization  Humans develop optimally in a place over generations  Our Home Town  Small communities under assault since end of WWII  Made possible by cheap energy  In 2004 began focus on Peak Oil and Climate Change  The factors that will lead to small community resurgence
  • New Watchword Needed! 1987 – Sustainability, 2009 – Survivability  Three Interrelated Threats to Humanity  Shrinking amounts of Fossil Fuels – “Peak Energy”  Implies a declining standard of living  Increasing CO2 (From burning fossil fuels)  Threatens life on earth  Record Inequity – from cheap fuels and cheap credit  More violence and suffering  Record levels of alienation
  • World Facing Energy Decline  ASPO says Peak Oil occurred 2008  IEA World Energy Annual 2009 – Acknowledged Peak Oil
  • World Threatened with Climate Crisis  CO2 – 387 ppm; Increasing 2.1 ppm annually  James Hansen’s new theoretical max. – 350 ppm!!
  • World Inequity Highest in History  Energy consumption correlates to inequity!! Ivan Illich – 1974  U.S. Military predicting resource wars
  • Modern Technology – Problem or Solution?  10,000 years of Agrarian living  ~250 years of technology living  65 years hyper-technology living  Modern world is an “energy” world  Technology is limited  Fuel cell car 30 years late  Electric cars 90 years old  Fusion 40 years late  Biofuels have not worked  Power plants have changed little
  • Energy sources have major liabilities  Fossil Fuels and Uranium Oil and Gas Not enough resources Coal–Tar Sands–Oil Shale Not enough atmosphere Nuclear fission Not enough resources Nuclear fusion Too difficult  Renewables Biomass (burn food for fuel) Not enough air/water/soil Hydroelectric Not enough sites Hydrogen folly Needs energy to be produced Photovoltaic & Wind Power Proven – But will they scale?  Why are there so few options? Point of diminishing returns?  Has anything been added since crisis of 1970s?
  • Energy devices have major liabilities  Fuel Cell cars a 30 year debacle  $17 billion spent – few cars  EV a less expensive debacle  Few billion $ spent – ~ 4,000 made  PHEV next techno fix – but just a coal car (no better than hybrid)  Green Building not very green – LEED and Energy Star  15 – 30% Savings at best: need 80 – 90%  Clean coal (carbon sequestration) means burying CO2 for centuries  Completely unproven
  • Four Technology (Societal) Options Plan A – Black (fossil fuels) Technology – more oil, coal, oil shale Plan B – Green (wind/solar/corn) Technology Plan D – Pessimistic View – possible, but little value in discussing Plan C – High Satisfaction “Low-E” Way of Living
  • Plan C – Curtail Consumption First  Community Survival Strategies  We must cut energy use – fast !  Cuts must be deep  IPCC: 80–90% by 2050; 4–5% yearly  Our focus:  Cut energy under personal control  House, Food, Cars – 2/3 US energy  Take responsibility  Can’t wait for government  Can’t wait for techno-fixes
  • Plan C – High Satisfaction, Less Energy A “Community” Context  A “sufficiency” life style  Conserving, Sharing & Saving vs.  Competing, Hoarding & Consuming  Context where curtailment is not suffering  Happiness is relationships, not stuff  Live simply that others may simply live  Community is a cooperation principle  Capitalism/Competition destroying life  Happiness is local low–energy cooperative living
  • “If You Can’t Measure It, You Can’t Manage It!” – Per Capita Thinking  Most people don’t grasp energy accounting  EROEI, LCA, Embodied energy vs. operating energy  Understanding comes by per capita comparisons  Country comparisons are always misleading  Media obscures per capita – lets us feel righteous  There are three key “macro” considerations  CO Generation (tonnes per capita per year) 2  Energy Consumption (BOE per capita per year)  Income (PPP) ($ per capita per year)  The numbers can be motivating – or discouraging!
  • CO2 – 90% Reduction require for Survival  Per Capita Comparison  33 most populous nations  80% of world population  Survival (sustainable) level  1 tonne CO2 yearly per capita  4 tonne CO2 world average today  19 tonne CO2 U.S. average today  U.S. greatest CO2 contributor  4.5% of world made 27% of CO 2  Need a 90% cut
  • World Breakdown – CO2, (Oil, $)  Rich world is most of OECD (Org. Econ. Cooper. & Devl.)  OECD–L = OECD minus US, Turkey, Mexico (moved to ROW)  U.S. is a separate category
  • US Personal Consumption Breakdown  Population: U.S. – 300M, OECD–L – 700M, ROW – 5,700M  U.S. Household sector (food, cars, home)  Each sector uses more than total energy use of ROW
  • Setting Reduction Targets  Housing – 15.4 BOE/c: cut 80%  Deep Building Retrofits – German Passive House as model  Cars – 13.5 BOE/c: cut 75%  Smart Jitney ride sharing – shared transit  Food – 10 BOE/c: cut 90%  Elimination of fossil fuel based industrial animal products  Change your diet  Eat locally grown non industrial food  Where do we get the Low–E Technology?  Not in the U.S.!! Look at Kyoto signers
  • #1 Target – US Homes – Size Matters Most  Per capita square foot  1950 – 260; 2008 – 800  New US home size – 2,200 sq. ft.  1,000 sq. ft. in 1950  US residences almost twice as large as Europe or Japan  Small is beautiful–and survivable
  • U.S. Energy Use in Buildings  50% of US energy is used in buildings  40% operating, 10% embodied (building) energy  US has about 130 million residences (80 million buildings)  New building ~1.0 million units yearly
  • “Green Building” – too little, too late LEED, Energy Star ineffective  Programs reduce energy use by 15% – 30% (need 80% – 90%)  “Green buildings” are less than 5% of new construction  And new construction only 1 – 2 % of total buildings  Would take about 75 years to turn over the building stock
  • Home Energy Reductions – Easiest  Lighting easiest – CFLs reduce energy use by factor of three  Plug leaks: 10 – 20% of heat loss  Insulate attic – easy fix  Window coverings cheap and fast
  • Home Energy Reductions – Harder  Replace windows  Replace appliances or do without  Thicken the “building envelope”  Move furnace/ductwork into the conditioned space
  • Thick Tight Building Envelope-The Core  Based on Super Insulated House of 1970s (Shurcliff)  Very similar to current German “Passive House”
  • The German Passive House  Passive Houses use 90% less energy than conventional houses  In heating and cooling  Have no external heat source or air conditioning
  • 13 Annual Passive House Conference  Held two weeks ago in Frankfurt  Over 100 presenters  Tours of homes/schools  1,200 attendees from around the world  About 20,000 units built to date  18 years since first build – a maturing technology  Windows, heat exchangers, insulation, sealants  Achieving the 90% reduction
  • Must Retrofit Existing Buildings  1,000 sq. foot. Carriage House  Thicken walls, roof, floors  First floor 4” rigid, 7 ½ “ regular  Double wall added – 12’ total  Roof rafters from 2x4 to 2x12  Heat exchanger added  Replaced windows  Need deep retrofits to 130 million US residences  And to five million commercial building
  • Retrofit Building Energy Savings and $$  Wide range of estimates to redo all homes  130 million residence @ $40,000 is $5 trillion.  Impossible? Maybe – only 7 years of US real military budget  Or a year or two bailing out derivatives!  Far cheaper than paying fuel bills – e.g. 2008 to 2050 (42 yr)  Save 10 boe yearly– estimate $300 boe eqv. in 2012+  $3,000 yearly for 40 years = $120,000  Culture might change to 1950s values – homeowners do work!  Any serious group must develop retrofitting skills
  • #2 Target – The Private Car  U.S. has 210 million cars/SUVs/pickups  U.S. has 30% of the 700+ million cars in use worldwide  U.S. cars/trucks generate 45% of auto CO2 in world  Average American buys 13 cars in his/her lifetime  75 million new cars and trucks are built each year worldwide  Net addition to world car population – 55 million yearly  U.S. fleet mileage – 21 mpg, Europe 42 mpg, Japan 47 mpg  Replacing this fleet with new cars would take decades  Hybrids less than 1% of cars after 10 years  This is a little known “scale” issue
  • U.S. Drivers Tend to Drive Alone  Passengers per trip  U.S. Transportation Energy Book, 2008
  • New Mass Transit Success Questionable  Mass transit typically just supplements cars  Paris, London, Toronto, New York – high car populations  In Europe cars growing faster than mass transit  Mass transit overrated (BTU per passenger mile)  Private Car – 3,496 SUV – 4,329  Bus Transit – 4,318 Airplane – 3,959  Amtrak Train – 2,760 Rail transit – 2,569  Vanpool – 1,294  How much and how long for a mass transit system?  Can it even be done in places like Los Angeles?
  • Efficiency Ineffective – (Jeavon’s Paradox)  Efficiency isn’t the answer  From 750 million 30 mpg cars to 3 billion 100 mpg cars?  3 times the efficiency – 5 times the number of cars  1–2% yearly tech improvements and population increase  2–4% yearly oil depletion rate
  • What About a Jitney?  A small bus that carries passengers over a regular route on a flexible schedule  An unlicensed taxicab  Essence of the Jitney  Mass transit with cars, not buses  Common in 85% of world
  • The “Smart” Jitney Proposal  Every existing car is a jitney  “Shared transit “ – not mass transit  Made possible by new communications/GPS technology  A software problem – not hardware; All components exist!  Will provide anywhere/anytime/anyplace pickup and drop off  Not limited to tracks/lines/schedules  “Smart” enough to cut transport energy use 75–80%  Status – Operational ! ! !  Avego of Ireland is first out of the box  Should expect announcements soon in MA and CA  First conference held in April at MIT
  • #3 Target – Food  May be the hardest change – behavior changes  But the easiest physically – no new technology  Step 1 – stop eating factory meat and processed foods  Marion Nestle and Michael Pollan  Modern meat generates more CO2 equivalent than cars  Suffering of food animals is beyond belief  As little known as inequity  Garden and buy locally grown food  CS has its own garden – supports CSA’s  John Michael Greer – Organic garden is contemporary!!
  • Local Work in Yellow Springs  Council formed Electrical System Task Force  Resulted in cancelling $3 million new substation  At same time, withdrew from Amp Ohio coal plant  Council just formed Energy Task Force for long range planning  CS Board Member started house energy audit company  CS received grant for Yellow Springs Energy Partnership  Will review town’s energy use  Different than token sign ups for Architecture 2030 or Kyoto  Must measure use and design solutions
  • Crisis Is Approaching Quickly  Peak Oil may have already occurred – July 2008  IEA November 2008 report – acknowledges depletion  Climate Change is extremely serious – IPCC report “desperate”  Artic ice melt is accelerating  Survivability requires 80% reduction of energy use (4% yearly)  “Incrementalism is death”.. Stephen Tanner (BioHaus)  No time to hope for “breakthrough” technologies – CCS, PHEV  Must change habits and way of life – become different people  Use intermediate existing technologies
  • Financial Crisis Creates Opportunity  Financial corporations have defrauded–swindled–cheated us  Will mean cutbacks in energy exploration and R & D  Car companies are near bankruptcy  This will end our love affair with corporate America  Important to consider inequity in post great depression period  Up to 1929: Very high inequity  1930s – 1980s: focus on increasing equity  1980 – 2008: Inequity buildup as in pre 1929 period  Curtailment will be unavoidable – and that is not all bad  In the depression community flourished!!
  • Expect a Community Resurgence  Today is like pre-depression period (roaring 20s)  Things were declining before October 1929 – like now  The financial crisis is a crisis of character  The smartest and the best of us built Ponzi schemes  Consumer debt triggered both depressions  Free Market has become a license to steal  Community provides the alternative value system  Cooperation, not competition  Values of “caring and sharing”
  • Summary  CS Plan C is focused on Curtailment and Community  No techno–fix will maintain current way-of-life  CS projects are directed at personal 2/3 of energy consumption  Food, House, Car (or 38.6 BOE/c of 57.8 BOE/c)  Working with Low E building organizations – ACI, PHIUS  Working with Smart Jitney developers in Ireland (Avego) & India  Our view – this is an exciting challenge  World sacrificed community for consumerism  Horrible mistake – community will be reborn  When community is strong energy (materialism) less important