Slide 3: The rich countries: a moderate recovery [enter] Looking first at the rich countries // we see a moderate recovery with growth up by a percentage point from 1.5% in 2003 to 2.5% in 2004 Indeed, the current cycle parallels that of the early 1990s, but with a weaker recovery likely this time through 2005. It has been a difficult path to recovery... Policy impetus has been substantial to mitigate the worst of the downturn. Despite policy support, production growth faltered once more from mid-2002 through early this year, responding to difficult circumstances.... (1)- sharp cuts in investment and employment were required to shore-up corporate balance sheets– addressing imbalances of the late 1990s.... And (2) “non-economic” events– for example, the build-up to military intervention in Iraq, and the advent of SARS depressed consumer confidence and clouded demand prospects....... “but... --- as consumer spending remained strong (esp US), the critical factor was the fall in investment spending // and for recovery to get off the ground an improvement in business “confidence” and capital spending was clearly required ...
经济 —— 发达国家和发展中国家 GDP Early 1990s recession East Asia financial crisis 2001 downturn Real GDP, percent change Early 1980s recession High income countries Forecast Low income countries
经济——区域 GDP 和人均 GDP 以上数据来自世界经济统计资料
社会环境 电影: 好莱坞 宝莱坞 印度偏僻商店买到世界品牌 好莱坞 宝莱坞
社会环境—— 全球一体化 印度偏僻商店买到世界品牌
技术
网络普及和 IT 技术的进步
在线销售电子商务飞速发展
Top 500 Largest Company in the world Sorted by Revenues in 2002 22.3% 48.9% 16.4% 21.0% 10.6% 9.6% Source : United States : Fortune July,21,2003
标杆企业——欧莱雅 销售额地区分布 2.30% 1329 Rest of World 1.90% 720 East Europe 2.40% 650 South Asian 1.40% 3784 North America 3.70% 7221 Western Europe Growth based on consolidated figures Millions Area
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