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LUND example causal loop diagram
 

LUND example causal loop diagram

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An exemplar causal loop diagram as presented by Harald Sverdrup of the University of Lund at the CONVERGE project's kick-off meeting in Budapest, September 2009

An exemplar causal loop diagram as presented by Harald Sverdrup of the University of Lund at the CONVERGE project's kick-off meeting in Budapest, September 2009

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    LUND example causal loop diagram LUND example causal loop diagram Presentation Transcript

    • Convergence or divergenceonnorthernSweden?
      A field case from Swedish Lappland thattook an unexpected turn
    • The National environmental goals
      No success: The implementationsoftheSwedishenvironmetal goals in theSwedishmountaindistrict is not goinganywhere at the moment
      Highambitions: The environmental goals ofSwedenare 16, designed to address all major environmental problems here
      Dispair: The EnvironmentalProtectionAgencyfeels it does not know what to do. Whydoesn’t it workwheneverybody just loves theenvironment?
    • Somehistoryofthemountains
      Thereareseveralpopulations in the area
      Saami
      Swedes
      Finns
      The differentpopulations have differentlifestyles and languages
      Swedes and Finns areurbanized industrialists, Finnish is FinnoUgrian, Swedish is IndoEuropean
      The Saamiarepartlynomads, largelyurbanized, Saami is a FinnoUgrianlanguage, separate from Finnish
    • Pastabuseofpower
      The governmentmistreated and discriminatedtheinlandpopulationincludingtheSaami during 1550-1970 and commitedseveral grave cases ofoppressioncrimesbasedondifferences in lifestyles
      The governmentconfiscated 90,000 km2of land withforce 400/300/200/100 yearsago (from all, mostlyillegallythen) and kept it withforce in all theseyearsagainstthewillofsignificant parts ofthelocalpopulation
      The abuse and thefollow-oneffects have lead to manyconflicts in the region
      Unclarityconcerningownership and landuse rights create a vacuumthatallowsthestrongest to rule and divide.
    • Theyare all equallymuchSwedes
      The Caucasiansarrived 14,000 yearsago (5%)
      The Swedesarrived 6,500 yearsago (85%)
      The Saamiarrived 3,500 yearsago (0.6%)
      The Finns arrived 600 yearsago (0.8%)
    • What to do?
      Findthe problem and define it
      Findcauses and causalchainson to effects
      Understand thedynamicsofthe system
      Investigate scenarios
      Reconstructthepast
      Change inputs and conditions
      Changethe system structures
      Proposeways forward
    • Get a dedicated team
      Harald Sverdrup, Deniz Koca, Salim Belyazid from Chemical Engineering, Lund University
      Peter Schlyter from PhysicalGeography, Stockholm University
      HördurHaraldsson and PO Wickberg from NVV
      32 stakeholders from themountain region
    • Method
      Definethe problem
      Make system maps to understand what is goingon, how it works, how a lot ofstuffinteracts
      Make sure the stakeholder understand it, by participating in theactualanalysis (Theyget a sneakcourse in systems analysis just by taking part in theprocess)
      Pull consequencesout from the diagrams
      Make recommendations to theEnvironmentalprotectionboard
    • The plan
    • Planen II
    • Environmantal goals areonly a special case ofsustainability goals
    • Manythings to connect
    • Turism som fenomen
    • Turism, scooter and natur
    • Turism, Samiske näringer, fjellandskap
    • Mountain farms
    • What it used to be
    • The etnicgroup and integration versus segregation
    • AdditionalCLDs for
      Forestry
      Sami culture, identity and society
      Effectsofwild predators on animal husbandry, turism, biodiversity and naturalconservation
      Severalstepsof diagrams for governmentalpowerstructures, useofpower, legal system, managementof land resources, governanceissues, land ownership
    • A discovery in thegroupof stakeholders
    • Abuseofpower leads to
      Corruption
      Nepotism
      Lobbyism
      Bribery
      Bending therules
      Lethagy
      Give a damn in it
      Move to Stockholm
      Selfsufficiency
      Undergroundactivities, segregation and communitywitdrawal
      Ignorepermits
      Ignoreauthorities
      Localabuseofpower
      • Lackofgovernmentallegitimacy
      • Institutionalinefficiency
      • Lower standard of living in thelong run
    • The organization must change
    • Wehadsomesurprises
      Abuse and misuseofpower in the region has continued
      Important land rights issues have beenleft in a stateofconfusion for a century, allowingcontinuedpowerabuse
      The legitimacy and credibilityofcentralstateauthorities is questioned in the area
      Naturvårdsverketslegitimacy is tainted by otheragencie’sabuseofpower
    • So what ?
      Environmental goals are not implementedbecauseofissuesoflegitimacy, credibility and lackoflocalparticipation
      The definitionsareincomplete and have lowrelevance to fieldconditions
      Environment is still seen as a veryimportnatissue by a majorityofthearea’spopulation
    • Conclusions
      Unresolvedsocialissuesofgovernancepreventimplementationoftheenvironmental goals and objectives
      The socialissuesneeds to be resolved in order beforetheenvironmentalissuescan be addressed
      Social trust, legitimacy and credibility is hard to earn and quick to loose
      Without systems analysiswewould never have discoveredthe real problem oftheissue
    • Trust I
    • Trust II
    • Trust III
    • The viciouscircle
    • Sustainability limits economy
    • 3 bigchallenges
      Climatechangewil make profoundphysicalchanges to the world cascadingintosociety
      Urbanization and demographicchangePeoplegetting older, moving from land to city, from land useprofessions to urbanizedoccupations.
      The race for energy and material resourcesThe present material use is outstrippingthesupplycapacitiesofthe world, quicklyexhaustingalmost all reserves within a fewcenturies.
    • To goon
      Introduction to systems analysis
      Group modellingonthe case studies
      Systems maps
      Generatedynamicmodels
      Createindicator-drivendiagnostic system model