Affect of Resource Scarcity and Industry in Bristol


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The CONVERGE project launched its CONVERGE Rethinking Globalisation seminar series on May 25th 2011 with this session in Bristol UK - giving info on the latest research into resource burn-off rates, and how they may affect industry in Bristol.

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Affect of Resource Scarcity and Industry in Bristol

  1. 1. How will resource scarcity impact industryin Bristol?Alice-Marie Archer, Oliviero Mannu & Julia AnkenbrandSpeaking at the Schumacher Institute for theRethinking Globalisation Seminar Series 1
  2. 2.   “At the end of the day, we are not about to “run out” of any Nonrenewable Natural Resources; we are about to run “critically short” of many. This reality will have a devastating impact on our industrial lifestyle paradigm” – Chris Clugston for The Oil Drum 2
  3. 3.   “It was shown that scarcity affected manufacturers through process disruptions and unexpected increases in expenditures. Recycling, substitution and dematerialization were actions taken or encouraged by firms in the manufacturing industry that reduced the impact of scarcity.These responses take time to implement, are not available to all and lead to permanent market changes. … manufacturing firms may not be adequately appreciating the benefits of recycling, dematerialization and materials substitution if they do not consider the effects of increasing scarcity. Moreover, because markets respond slowly to changes, manufacturers who can respond rapidly to increasing scarcity because they have a strategy in place can gain a competitive advantage” – Elina Alonso, MIT, 20103
  4. 4.   “Due to the combination of 100% dependence on imported supplies, a high concentration of production in relatively few countries and low substitutability and recycling rates, the UK is vulnerable to restrictions in supply of some metals” – UK Parliamentary Inquiry into Strategic Metals 4
  5. 5. Overview   Introducing The CONVERGE & Prepare For Change Projects   A Challenge to Bristol’s Industry   Finite Materials   Peak Everything   Geopolitical Situation in general   Resources & Geopolitics – implications for Bristol   Our Nonrenewable heart - intro   Where next?   Substitution   Technological advances   Case Examples5
  6. 6. Introducing the CONVERGE Project  Title: Rethinking globalisation in light of Convergence  Funded by the EU (FP7) under Collaboration  4 year research programme  Focusing on the exploration of ‘Equity within biological planetary limits’  8 Partner organizations in 5 countries   UK – Schumacher Institute, University of Bristol   Hungary – Szent Istvan University, GreenDependent   Sweden – University of Lund, The Natural Step   Iceland – University of Iceland   India – Social Change and Development 6
  7. 7. Convergence  (kn-vûrjns): The point of converging; a meeting place: e.g. a town at the convergence of two rivers.  Reduction of resource consumption and unsustainable behaviors in the developed world while accepting increasing consumption and systematic sustainability in developing and deprived sectors all within biological planetary limits.  Borrows from the principles behind ‘contraction and convergence’.  “progress towards equity within biological planetary limits”  Unifying Framework for: Intergenerational equality, Social Justice, Sustainability, Human Rights, Millenium Development Goals, Systems Science, Global budgeting, ecological economics 7
  8. 8. Prepare for Change project8
  9. 9. Finite Materials(from the Global Nonrenewable Natural Resource Scarcity Assessment 2002 - 2008 ) 9
  10. 10. Finite Materials – 2030 NowPermanent Global NNR Supply Shortfall (by 2030) Probability Summary(from the Global Non-renewable Natural Resource Scarcity Assessment 2002 - 2008 ) 10
  11. 11. K.V. Ragnarsdottir, H.U. Sverdrup, Deniz Koca:Dynamic models  reserves of some key metals  locations of the ores  technology they are used for  degree of recycling  many metals we rely on will run out in 10-40 years
  12. 12. Burn-off time: known mineable reserves dividedby the estimated average annual mining rate12
  13. 13. Examples for uses of scarce materials  Fertilizers  Phosphorus  PGM  Strategic material for digital technology  REM  Tantalum  Telurium  Silver, Gold 13
  14. 14. Examples for uses of scarce materials  Engines / Aerospace  Titanium  Tungsten/Wolfram  Molybdenum  Aluminium  Zinc  Cobalt  Batteries  Lithium  Lead  Cadmium
  15. 15. Interconnections Nickel Cobalt Tellurium Silver Copper
  16. 16. Trajectory  20 century (Actual)   In general global NNR supplies kept pace with ever-increasing global demand  During the pre-recession years of the 21st century (2000-2008), (Actual)   annual global NNR supplies decreased or even go negative compared to 20th century   annual global price levels increase   annual global NNR supplies increasingly unable to keep pace with ever-increasing global demand.  2030 (Projected)   Many Resources enter permanent supply shortfall   Annual global price levels increase   Geopolitical instability around increasingly valuable materials   Increased inequality in geographical allocation of resources 16
  17. 17. Bristol makes / processes / distributes  Glass – Thallium, Zinc, Lead, Cobalt, Tantalum  Engines – Bauxite, Iron Ore, Molybdenum, Titanium, Zinc, Cobalt  Aircraft/Aerospace – Gold, Tantalum, Titanium  Industrial Coatings – Chromium, Silver, Zinc  Plastics and Rubber (Packaging) – Oil, Titanium, Tellurium  Electronics – Tantalum, Molybdenum, REM  Food – Phosphorus, PGM, Molybdenum  Pharmaceutical Industry, Cosmetics – Silver, Zinc, PGM  Automotives and –parts (i.e. catalyser) – PGM, Lead  Tobacco Products – Phosphorus 17
  18. 18. Geopolitical situation  Several disturbing factors:   Growing demand pressure from emerging economies   Low elasticity, increase the risk of the occurrence of crises (rush for tantalum in 2000 due to the boom of mobile phones)   Concentration of the production of many materials in a small number of countries   Difficulty in acceding to various markets as industrial development strategies are implemented by means of trade taxation and investments instruments, particularly by developing countries18
  19. 19. Geopolitical Situation19
  20. 20. Case Studies – Geopolitical Perspective  Rare Earth Materials (REM)  Phosphorus 20
  21. 21. 21
  22. 22. Strategic Transition  Recycling  Substitution  Dematerialisation  Demand side management (consumer end) 22
  23. 23. Recycling - Auralite, Sweden  Resource scarcity challenge faced   Access to Raw Glass.   Raw Glass and other components necessary for production of fluorescent lightbulbs getting more expensive  Steps taken   In House Recycling Plant (MRT)   Collection of post consumer waste   Recycling of Mercury   Phosphorescents   Glass 23
  24. 24. Recycling - Rolls Royce  Resource Scarcity Challenge   Metals  Steps Taken  The company has established a Global Revert Consortium, involving its own manufacturing facilities, overhaul shops, suppliers and partners in recycling metal turnings, foundry waste and unserviceable engine parts, which contain rare metals.  Agreements with key suppliers require them to recover revert from machining and forging processes to retain the metal within their supply chain.  Employs a specialist third party to securely segregate, collect and process revert from facilities and suppliers around the world.  Material undergoes several specialist processes to recover precious metals and clean up the parent metal so it is suitable for re-melting into the same alloy.  Recovery also means that Rolls-Royce pays less for raw materials, mills can rely on them as a source of their raw material and they are not exposed to as much market price volatility and metal scarcity.  The company’s designers have developed alloys that halve the amount of rare earth elements required in some of the company’s jet engine parts. 24
  25. 25. Substitution - Electrolux  Resource Scarcity Challenge   Cadium for batteries, Petrol / Diesel for both product distribution and consumer use, Iron Ore (Steel) in product casing and electronics  Steps Taken  Creation of a portable vacuum that uses cadmium-free rechargeable batteries  The use of canola oil, a biodegradable vegetable oil, in its chain saws  Utilization of the railway system (more fuel-efficient than trucking) for 75% of product distribution in Europe  Brush cutters and trimmers that consume 30-35% less fuel than earlier models  Use of Aluminum (from comparatively available Bauxite) over other metals in product casings 25
  26. 26. Substitution - Ikea  Resource Scarcity Challenge   Chromium for metal surface treatments  Steps Taken  Use of powder lacquer is substantially reducing the use of chromium for metal surface treatment 26
  27. 27. Dematerialization – Interface  Resource scarcity challenge faced   High levels of waste carpeting  Steps taken   Leasing of Carpets   Firm can restore carpet continuously, replacing only the worn sections   Use of Solenium - carpet lasts four times longer than normal carpets and require 40% less material; in other words, Solenium has enabled Interface to reduce materials intensity in its carpets by more than 85% 27
  28. 28. Dematerialization – ULSAC Consortium  Resource scarcity challenge faced   steel is heavy, capital-intensive, and slow to tool— tooling for an all-new body and chassis can exceed $1 billion. In fact, the use of steel in two major industrial activities, namely, construction and automobile manufacture, has been in decline.  Steps taken  Introduction of Ultralight Steel initiated with the prototyping of complete frameless door structure in 2000. The door structure featured a high and ultra high strength steel tubularframe and a stamped outer panel of 0.7 mm 260 steel. The complete door structure weighed 10.47 kg (normalized mass, 13.27 kg/m2). This is 22 % lighter than the framed door best-in-class benchmark and 42 percent lighter than the average frameless door used as a Validation Phase benchmark. This was achieved without compromising safety or structural performance and at no cost penalty. The ULSAC frameless door with stamped outer panel weighs just 10.47 kg. This is 1.76 kg below the target mass of 12.23 kg o ULSAC door achieved 33 % mass savings over the average benchmark from a wide range of door structures 28
  29. 29. Is this an issue?  Do we need to be strategic?   Does material security require a strategic view from industry now?   Who are the stakeholders?  Or do we need to be reactive?   concerns be addressed by the “invisible hand” of the market whereby:   Consumers to reduce demand by using the material more efficiently   Consumers and competitors to locate substitute materials that cost less but perform equally well   Producers to increase production by ramping up existing production, locating new raw material sources, technological innovation to increase yields from existing or previously uneconomic sources 29
  30. 30. Discussion session  What would the consequences of scarcity be in Bristol?  What steps could the city be taking?  What are the human / ethical / fairness impacts of scarcity? 30
  31. 31. Sources / Further Reading  ECONOMICALLY CRITICAL MATERIALS -  PEAK EVERYTHING: WAKING UP TO THE CENTURY OF DECLINES– Richard Heinberg ://  RESOURCES, SCARCITY, GROWTH AND THE ENVIRONMENT - Robert U. Ayres -  Increasing Global Nonrenewable Natural Resource Scarcity—Prelude to Global Societal Collapse - Chris Clugston     Economics of Natural Resource Scarcity:The State of the Debate - Jeffrey A. Krautkraemer -     Resource Scarcity: Responding to the Security Challenge - Richard A. Matthews     Blood and Soil? Resource Scarcity and Internal Armed Conflict Revisited - OLE MAGNUS THEISEN -  Material scarcity from the perspective of manufacturing firms : case studies of platinum and cobalt - Elisa Alonso (Elisa Yun Han) -  Economics of technological change and the natural environment: How effective are innovations as a remedy for resource scarcity? – Lucas Bretschger - Ecological Economics 54 (2005) 148 – 163 31
  32. 32. Sources / Further Reading  Rarer still? Supply risks of rare earth elements –Paul Suff for The Environmentalist (2011) -  Decoupling Resource Use and Environmental Impacts from Economic Growth - UNEP (2011)  Video – Biomimicry in Action -  COMMODITY MINE - CommodityMine is your comprehensive news and information source. In addition to the latest prices, you can find in-depth commodity news, a list of upcoming mining events and even career information. The All Charts page allows you to compare price changes for gold, silver, copper and other commodities over a variety of time periods. Dynamic Charting allows to you adjust individual commodity timelines according to weight and currency -  USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2011 -  Strategically Important Metals -  Resource efficiency knowledge network -  Dematerialisation for Urban Waste Reduction - %2Fwp2001-014.pdf&rct=j&q=dematerialisation %20example&ei=ArvbTYKBF47HswbelZztDg&usg=AFQjCNG9DWdgOfE-0PO4IFnbyzLAwTSgfQ&sig2=0Tt6i7Z5n3mIgovRTut7Bg&cad=rja  Web based survey of trends in Dematerialisation - %2FCSS01-17.pdf&rct=j&q=nanotechnology%20dematerialisation&ei=Mr3bTd6sH8-Rswb2- uXfDg&usg=AFQjCNGHffUy2iJ8KatrnMNRyFEmWgUL1g&sig2=Kval_bnPBV_XZe8eyt2Juw&cad=rja 32
  33. 33. A Challenge to Bristol’s Industry  “Business is the largest, wealthiest, most pervasive institution on Earth… It must take the lead in directing the Earth away from collapse, and toward sustainability. ...” - Paul Hawken in The Ecology of Commerce 33
  34. 34. 34