Carlota Perez - Human Habitat 2010 - 18 October 2010


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Dando forma ao futuro com o auxílio da História. O estudo das revoluções tecnológicas revela regularidades significativas nos seus padrões de difusão. Uma delas é a mudança de padrões de consumo que ocorre na segunda onda de cada nova tecnologia, na sequência de um grave colapso financeiro. A revolução da informação encontra-se actualmente nesta encruzilhada e os desafios ambientais, juntamente com a globalização, estão a desenhar um futuro que ainda nos pode parecer improvável, mas que promete assemelhar-se ao impacto dos materiais sintéticos e à suburbanização no período pós-guerra.

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Carlota Perez - Human Habitat 2010 - 18 October 2010

  1. 1. Prof. Carlota Perez Cambridge and Sussex Universities, U.K. and Tallinn University of Technology, Estonia Human Habitat 2010 Lecture Series 18th October 2010 - Lisbon Building a sustainable global golden age for overcoming the crisis
  2. 2. The current crisis is a problem originated in the financial side of the economy… IT HAS HAPPENED BEFORE MID-WAY ALONG EACH TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTION …with a solution on the production side
  3. 3. What worked before will not work from now on BECAUSE IN MARKET ECONOMIES TECHNICAL CHANGE OCCURS BY REVOLUTIONS Capitalism experiences pendular swings about every three decades THE MAJOR BUBBLE COLLAPSE MARKS THE SWING OF THE PENDULUM To a “golden age” under the control of PRODUCTION aided by an active government in order to fully deploy the installed potential From a “gilded age” under the control of FINANCE with unfettered free markets in order to install the technological revolution
  4. 4. And each drives a GREAT SURGE OF DEVELOPMENT and shapes innovation for half a century or more FIVE TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS IN 240 YEARS The „Industrial Revolution‟ (machines, factories and canals)1771 Age of Steam, Coal, Iron and Railways1829 Age of Steel and Heavy Engineering (electrical, chemical, civil, naval)1875 Age of the Automobile, Oil, Petrochemicals and Mass Production1908 Age of Information Technology and Telecommunications1971 Age of Biotech, Bioelectronics, Nanotech and new materials?20?? Britain Britain Germany USA vs. Britain USA ??? USA Eachbeginsinacorecountryandspreadsacrosstheworld
  5. 5. A massive change in wealth creating potential Why call them revolutions? TRANSFORMING THE OPPORTUNITY SPACE AND THE WAYS OF LIVING, WORKING AND COMMUNICATING A powerful cluster of new dynamic industries and infrastructures with increasing productivity and decreasing costs Explosive growth and structural change New generic technologies, infrastructures and organisational principles for modernising the existing industries too A quantum jump in innovation and productivity for all NEW INDUSTRIES and NEW PARADIGM FOR ALL Because they transform the whole economy!
  6. 6. Continuous improvementStable routines Human capitalHuman resources Flexible / adaptable strategiesFixed plans GlobalisationInternationalisation Highly segmented dynamic marketsThree tier stable markets Open interactive networks / local and globalClosed pyramids Flexible/adaptable productionMass production processes Environment as challenge and guideNo environmental concern Innovative learning organisationsStatic Tayloristic organizations Value network partnersSuppliers and clients Modernisation and rejuvenation of all sectors A radical change in managerial “common sense” brought on by a different set of enabling technologies
  7. 7. AN IMPORTANT CLARIFICATION GLOBALISATION IS INEVITABLE WITH THE INTERNET BUT… …it is not about the end of national states but about global companies choosing what to do and where to do it on a highly differentiated global space Each territory defines its role by choosing (or by not choosing) a specialisation strategy
  8. 8. ANOTHER CLARIFICATION: THE HYPERSEGMENTATION OF MARKETS (or the so-called long-tail)… …is what facilitates the multiple specialisations and re-specialisations of companies and territories Once there are infinite niches in each product space and systems for handling them by transport and distribution systems only lack of imagination stands in the way of success THE UNIVERSE OF THE PROFITABLE IS VASTLY ENLARGED BY ICT
  9. 9. DEPLOYMENT (20-30 years)INSTALLATION (20-30 years) Financial bubble THAT EACH GREAT SURGE GOES THROUGH TWO DIFFERENT PERIODS It is due to resistance and difficulty in assimilating such major paradigm shifts We are here Next big-bang Time Degreeofdiffusionofthenewtechnologicalpotential big-bang “Creative destruction” Battle of the new paradigm against the old Concentration of investment in new-tech Income polarisation LED BY FINANCIAL CAPITAL INSTALLATION (20-30 years) Financial bubble “Creative construction” Use of new paradigm for innovation and growth across all sectors Spreading of social benefits LED BY PRODUCTION CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT (20-30 years) Recessions,institutionalchangeandroleshift Turning Point Next big-bang From irruption to bubble collapse From “golden age” to maturity
  10. 10. FINANCIAL CAPITAL PRODUCTION CAPITAL Why this pattern? Why the role switch? FIXED AND KNOWLEDGE-BOUND Long-term bias FLEXIBLE AND MOBILE Short-term bias Financial capital can massively redirect resources and “force” new paradigm diffusion Production capital is better for carrying growth and expansion within an established paradigm THE MARKET ECONOMY HAS TWO DIFFERENT AND COMPLEMENTARY AGENTS
  11. 11. The shift from financial mania and collapse to Golden Ages is enabled by regulation and policies to shape and widen markets THE HISTORICAL RECORD Bubble prosperities, recessions and golden ages INSTALLATION PERIOD DEPLOYMENT PERIODTURNING POINT Bubbles of first globalisation Belle Époque (Europe) “Progressive Era” (USA)1890–95 Railway mania The Victorian Boom1848–50 Canal mania The Great British leap1793–97 Internet mania and financial casino Global Sustainable ”Golden Age”? 2007 /08 -??? The roaring twenties Post-war Golden age Europe 1929–33 USA 1929–43 1771 Britain 1829 Britain 1875 Britain / USA Germany 1908 USA 1971 USA 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th GREAT SURGE “Gilded Age” prosperity Maturity“Golden Age” prosperityCollapse & Recessions
  12. 12. ONE Technological innovation in ICT The INTERNET MANIA in the 1990s NASDAQ collapse in 2000 TWO Financial innovation with ICT The EASY CREDIT BOOM in the 2000s FINANCIAL MELTDOWN in 2007-08 Understanding this is crucial for identifying the nature, the consequences and the solution of the current crisis A unique feature of our time is that the mid-surge bubble happened in two stages
  13. 13. WE ARE AT THE TURNING POINT The length of the process depends on the social and political forces The last time around it took over a decade and a major war There are three tasks for governments after the major crash: DONE… even overdone This time global finance needs both national redesign and a global regulatory “floor” STILL ON THE DRAWING BOARD RARELY BEING CONSIDERED AS SUCH But recovery will be very difficult without it Intensive therapy for finance1 Redesign of regulation and financial architecture2 Enable a STRUCTURAL SHIFT in the real economy 3
  14. 14. THE UNIQUE FEATURE OF THE PREVIOUS TURNING POINT Recessions and depressions that lasted 13 years! Economists resisted Keynes as anti-free markets Business resisted Roosevelt’s New Deal as communism It took WWII as “dress rehearsal” of industry-government collaboration for market expansion The structural shift cannot happen without policy intervention to tilt the playing field
  15. 15. What is this structural shift about? What are its consequences? What are its requirements for action
  16. 16. The second half spreads innovation across the board to reap the full economic and social benefits The first half concentrates innovation to set up the new infrastructure and to let markets pick the winners TWO LEVELS OF DIFFUSION OF EACH TECHNOLOGICAL POTENTIAL
  17. 17. Moving from laissez faire to the active come-back of the State Passing control of investment from financial to production capital Shifting from supply-push to demand-pull in investment and innovation Moving from individualist focus to collective interests SETTING UP A WIN-WIN STRATEGY BETWEEN BUSINESS AND SOCIETY THE ELEMENTS OF ACTION FOR THE STRUCTURAL SHIFT AND THIS TIME IN A GLOBALISED ECONOMY
  18. 18. Different periods: different role of the State Installation THE “GILDED AGE” Deployment THE “GOLDEN AGE” Recessions,institutionalrecompositionandchangeover The unrestrained market does it all THE BAD: •Skewed growth; polarised incomes •Primacy of paper values over real ones •Greed, corruption, short-termism •Breakdown of collective values PROMOTE LONG TERM GROWTH •Regulate to restrain financial excesses •Avoid monopolies; facilitate oligopolies •Restore real values over paper ones •Favour long-term investment in production •Regulate and support innovation in adequate “demand pull” directions •Facilitate dense fabric of SMEs & SKIES Intelligent come-back of the State INSTABILITY AND EXCLUSION STABILITY AND INCLUSION THE GOOD: •Revive wealth creation •Install the new industries •Reward the innovators •Overinvest in infrastructures •Select the leaders RE-ESTABLISH SOCIAL COHESION •Income distribution •Social safety nets •Expansion and stability of demand •Restoring collective values
  19. 19. A SHIFT IN THE DYNAMICS OF GROWTH AND INNOVATION “Gilded Age” Installation SUPPLY PUSH “Golden Age” Deployment DEMAND PULL Recessions,institutionalrecompositionandchangeover CONTEXT Mature industries are technologically exhausted their markets are saturated The old economy stagnates The new technologies are only incipient CONTEXT The new engines of growth are ready The new infrastructure widens and deepens market access The old industries are rejuvenated The new paradigm has been learned A huge potential for growth is installed TIMES OF EXPERIMENT AND TURBULENCE TIMES OF BUILD-OUT AND HARMONIOUS GROWTH SOURCE OF DYNAMISM? Finance for massive investment in new technologies, industries and infrastructures competing to select new engines of growth and to rejuvenate the rest SOURCE OF DYNAMISM? Expansion of demand (public and private) and reshaping of its profile (direct or indirect income redistribution) to enable production growth and constant innovation
  20. 20. FINANCE in a facilitating service role A SHIFT IN THE DRIVERS OF INNOVATION THE STATE in a facilitating service role During deployment innovation in production depends on EFFECTIVE INSTITUTIONAL AND POLICY INNOVATION A vast free market experiment The full flourishing of the installed potential PRODUCTION and THE STATE as drivers and innovators DEPLOYMENT = demand- pull FINANCE and THE NEW ENTREPRENEURS as drivers and innovators INSTALLATION = supply- push
  21. 21. Age of Steam, Coal, Iron and Railways 1850s-1860s Urban, industry-based VICTORIAN LIVING in Britain DEPLOYMENT PERIOD LIFESTYLE Each style became “the good life” redefining people‟s desires and guiding innovation trajectories Age of Steel and Heavy Engineering 1890s-1910s Urban, cosmopolitan lifestyle of THE BELLE EPOQUE in Europe Age of the Automobile, oil and Mass Production 1950s-1960s Suburban, energy-intensive AMERICAN WAY OF LIFE 2010s-20??s Will the developed and emerging countries develop a variety of ICT-intensive and “glocal” SUSTAINABLE LIFESTYLES? Age of global ICT EACH GREAT SURGE HAS BROUGHT A CHANGE IN LIFESTYLES with new life-shaping goods and services at „affordable‟ prices
  22. 22. An example: The emergence of the „American Way of Life‟ as the paradigm shift from the Belle Époque… Refrigerators and central heatingIce boxes and coal stoves Doing housework with electrical equipmentDoing housework by hand Preference for disposable plastics of all sortsPaper, cardboard, wood and glass packaging Suburban living separate from workUrban or country living and working Mass media, radio, movies and televisionLocal newspapers, posters, theaters, parties Automobiles, buses, trucks, airplanes and motorcycles Trains, horses, carriages, stage coaches, ships and bicycles Synthetic materialsNatural materials (cotton, wool, leather, silk..) Refrigerated, frozen or preserved food bought periodically in supermarkets Fresh food bought daily from specialized suppliers FROM ENERGY-SCARCE LIVING Energy is expensive and often inaccessible TO ENERGY-INTENSIVE HOMES AND MOBILITY Energy is cheap and its availability unlimited …all strongly aided by advertising, business strategies and government policies
  23. 23. THE TECHNOLOGICAL POTENTIAL changes the relative cost structure and marks the direction of change It is a huge opportunity space for innovation, growth and radical changes in lifestyles FROM THE LOGIC OF CHEAP ENERGY (oil) for transport, electricity, synthetic materials, etc. TO THE LOGIC OF CHEAP INFORMATION its processing, transmission and productive use Preference for services and intangible value Huge potential for savings in energy and materials Preference for tangible products and disposability Unthinking use of energy and materials Unavoidable environmental destruction Capacity for environmental friendliness The techno-economic paradigm shift happening since the 1970s-80s
  24. 24. YET, THE NEW PARADIGM IS STILL WRAPPED IN THE OLD WHY? Because in the crucial 1990s we had cheap oil and cheap Asian labour which favoured the stretching of the old marketing and consumption patterns Mass production disposability and high use of energy and materials are still with us An automobile in 1898 It‟s just like the first automobiles that began looking like horse driven carriages Reproduction: L.De Vries. 1972 TO CONTINUE ON THIS ROUTE WE WOULD NEED SEVEN PLANETS!
  25. 25. CHANGE IN THE ECONOMICS OF THE PRODUCTION, TRANSPORT AND DISTRIBUTION OF TANGIBLE GOODS Optimal relocation and geographic re-specialisation of physical production Gradual redesign of the consumption patterns for the “good life” Rising prices of oil and raw materials Rising packaging and freight costs Visible effects of increasing global warming Rising climatic risk CHANGE IN BUSINESS STRATEGIES CHANGE IN GOVERNMENT POLICIES THE UNAVOIDABLE PATH OF THE CURRENT GLOBALISATION PATTERN
  26. 26. Firm and intelligent policy action, business strategies and social decisions can take us there! WHY WAIT UNTIL THE PLANET FORCES US TO CHANGE COURSE? AND IT IS PROBABLY THE ONLY WAY OUT OF RECESSION
  27. 27. Technologically feasible Socially acceptable Economically profitable TECHNOLOGY ONLY DEFINES THE SPACE OF THE FEASIBLE The factors defining the space of the acceptable and the profitable change over time … AND ARE ALSO CHANGEABLE!
  28. 28. THE SUPPLY opportunity space THE DEMAND opportunity space The range of the technologically feasible together with the capabilities to make it happen The range of the economically profitable and socially acceptable as defined --and modified-- by policy and social or other factors THE BETTER THE MATCH BETWEEN THE DEMAND AND SUPPLY SPACES THE MORE DYNAMIC THE ECONOMY TWO COMPLEMENTARY OPPORTUNITY SPACES FOR INNOVATION
  29. 29. THE ELEMENTS OF THE DEMAND OPPORTUNITY SPACE Sources of DEMAND DIRECTIONALITY Sources of DEMAND VOLUME Supply opportunity space The coherence and synergy among the elements generates self-reinforcing loops ENABLERS New paradigm Generic technologies Infrastructures Relative cost structure
  30. 30. HOW WAS THE PREVIOUS GOLDEN AGE UNLEASHED? ? Creating a dynamic national opportunity space for deploying the potential of mass production
  31. 31. THE DEMAND OPPORTUNITY SPACE THAT SHAPED THE POST WAR GOLDEN AGE DEMAND VOLUME, PROFILE AND TRENDS Welfare State Labour unions Public procurement Credit systemSPECIFIC DEMAND AS DIRECTION FOR INNOVATION Suburbanisation Post-war reconstruction Cold war Cheap oil and materials Universal electricity Road and airway network INNOVATION ENABLERS FOR MASS PRODUCTION The various elements were provided in different proportions in each “First World” country
  33. 33. The new global positive-sum game ICT “GREEN” FULL GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT Full internet access at low cost is equivalent to electrification and suburbanisation in facilitating demand (and, this time, also education) Revamping transport, energy, products and production systems to make them sustainable is equivalent to post-war reconstruction and suburbanisation Incorporating successive new millions into sustainable consumption patterns is equivalent to the Welfare State and government procurement in terms of demand creation
  34. 34. And the elements are interconnected ICT “GREEN” FULL GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT But we need policy consensus involving government, business and society Internet access is the social and geographic frontier of the global market ICTs are the main enabling instruments of sustainability Only with sustainable production and consumption patterns Is globalisation possible
  35. 35. “GREEN” is not only about saving the planet It is about saving the economy and having a high (but different) quality of life GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT is not only a humanitarian goal it is about healthy growth, markets and employment for all
  36. 36. • Natural vs. synthetic • Minimalist design • „Gourmet‟ and organic food • Exercise for well being • Small vs. big • Multipurpose products • Working from home • Solar power as luxurious as well as electric cars • Intense Internet use Part of the paradigm shift is happening among sophisticated consumers There is still a long way to go THE CHANGE IN PREFERENCES BEGINS AT THE TOP OF THE INCOME SCALE AND SPREADS BY IMITATION …AND AFFORDABILITY • Durability • Very high quality vs. quantity • Reparability and upgradability • Anti-waste, pro-recycling • Low carbon footprint • Customised vs. standard • Services vs. tangible products • Active & creative “prosumer” vs. passive consumer • Etc. etc. THE NEW LUXURY LIFE WOULD INCREASE SATISFACTION WHILE MAXIMISING THE PRODUCTIVITY OF RESOURCES
  37. 37. But the change will not come by guilt, fear or obligation But by desire and aspiration “GREEN” HAS TO BECOME FASHIONABLE!
  38. 38. THE QUESTION IS HOW TO GO FROM AN ENLIGHTENED MINORITY (by education, consciousness or wealth) TO THE GREAT MAJORITIES The new green luxury life pattern becomes fashionable Advertising and company strategies and lobbying go in a green direction However it starts, the process goes through multiple self-reinforcing feedback loops Government tilts the playing field strongly in favour of green
  39. 39. Setting up the framework for a sustainable global golden age THE ACTORS Government Business Civil society (especially NGOs) Universities Media THE MEANS Building a widespread consensus Innovative policies to change market conditions A tilted playing field on a global scale THE GOAL A “green economy” A global “man-on-the-moon” project To be effective, the changes and the policies must be clear, reliable, enforceable, long-term and commanding widespread agreement THE LEVELS Global National Regional Local
  40. 40. UTOPIAN OR REALISTIC? It sounded utopian to say in mid-1930s DEPRESSION: Blue collar workers will have lifetime jobs and fully equipped suburban houses with a car at the door But it was realistic: Increasing wages created many more millions of consumers for mass production and sustained growth …or in the late 1960s: Some of the values of the hippie movement [back to natural materials, organic food, etc.] will become the luxury norms Innovations in natural textile fibres have transformed the world of fashion Innovation in distribution logistics have made organic foods the premium segment in supermarkets Shifts in consumption patterns shift profit-making opportunities Most colonies will gain independence Rising middle classes in the developing world adopted the “American Way of Life” widening world markets for mass production
  41. 41. THE TECHNOLOGICAL STAGE IS SET TODAY FOR THE GLOBAL GOLDEN AGE OF THE 21st CENTURY It is up to business, government and society to agree on the convergent actions for making it a reality Will it be a success or a wasted opportunity? WE SHALL ALL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE OUTCOME