Modelling Water & Life
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Modelling Water & Life

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My recent 10-minute talk on modelling for environmental decision-making

My recent 10-minute talk on modelling for environmental decision-making

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  • Russia has the most extensive forest cover, followed by Brazil, Canada and USAEstimated area of gross forest cover loss at the global scale is 1,011,000 km2, or 3.1 % of year 2000 forest area (0.6% per year from 2000 to 2005)Gross forest cover loss was highest in the boreal biome, with fire accounting for 60 % of that lossThe humid tropics had the second-highest gross forest cover loss, due mainly to broad-scale clearing for agriculture in Brazil, Indonesia and MalaysiaWhen expressed as proportion lost from the 2000 extent estimates, the humid tropics is the least disturbedThe Amazon interior is the largest remaining ‘intact’ forest, followed by the Congo basinThe dry tropics has the 3rd-highest gross forest cover loss, with Australia, Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay accounting for most of thisAlthough the temperate biome had the lowest forest cover (due mainly to forest clearances long, long ago), it had the 2nd-highest proportional gross forest cover lossNorth America has the greatest area of gross forest cover loss, followed by Asia and South AmericaNorth America alone accounts for ~ 30 % of global gross forest cover loss, and has the highest proportional gross forest cover loss at 5.1 %Brazil has the highest gross national forest cover loss of any nationIndonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo are next in line for tropical countriesUSA has the highest proportional global forest cover loss since 2000Despite previous estimates suggesting that Canada has had little forest loss, the new estimates place it second in terms of gross forest cover loss only to Brazil
  • 1990-2000: nearly 100 000 people were killed and 320 million people were displaced by floods, with total reported economic damages exceeding US$1151 billion

Modelling Water & Life Modelling Water & Life Presentation Transcript

  • Modelling Water & Life4 in 40
    Corey J. A. Bradshaw1,2
    1THE ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTE, University of Adelaide, Australia
    2South Australian Research & Development Institute
    • > 4 million protists
    • 16600 protozoa
    • 75000-300000helminth parasites
    • 1.5million fungi
    • 320000 plants
    • 4-6 million arthropods
    • > 6500 amphibians
    • > 30000 fishes
    • 10000 birds
    • > 5000 mammals
  • 99 % of ALL species that have ever existed...
    EXTINCT
    species lifespan = 1-10 M years
    Ordovician (490-443 MYA)
    Devonian (417-354 MYA)
    Permian (299-250 MYA)
    Triassic (251-200 MYA)
    Cretaceous (146-64 MYA)
    Anthropocene
    extinction rate 100-10000× background
    © Tiantian Zhang, Good50x70.org
    Crutzen 2002 Nature 415:23; Bradshaw & Brook 2009 J Cosmol2:221-229
  • reduce desertification
    maintain soils
    crop pollination
    seed dispersal
    food provision
    water purification
    fuel provision
    fibre provision
    climate regulation
    flood regulation
    disease regulation
    waste decomposition/detoxification
    nutrient cycling
    soil formation
    primary production
    pharmaceutical sources
    cultural appreciation (aesthetic, spiritual, educational, recreational…)
    €153 billion/year
    fisheries: €50 billion/year
    • €50 billion lost/year
    • Land-based ecosystem loss €545 billion by 2010
    • > €14 trillion/year lost by 2050
    Cost of Policy Inaction (COPI):
    The case of not meeting the 2010 biodiversity target.
    European Commission
  • Bradshaw et al. 2009 Trends Ecol Evol24:541-548
    Bradshaw et al. 2009 Front Ecol Environ 7:79-87
    • 1,011,000 km2 lost 2000-2005 (3.1 %; 0.6 %/year)
    • highest in boreal biome (60 %)
    • humid tropics next (Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia)
    • dry tropics next highest (Australia, Brazil, Argentina)
    • N.A. greatest proportional lost by continent
    • Nationally, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, DR Congo
    Hansen et al. 2010 PNAS
    doi:10.1073/pnas.0912668107
    Barson et al. 2000 Land Cover
    Change in Australia, Bur RurSci
  • 1990-2000
    • ~100,000 people killed
    • 320 million people displaced
    • total reported damages > US$1151 billion
    Bradshaw et al. 2007 Glob Change Biol13:2379-2395
    • schistosomiasis
    • malaria
    • leptospirosis
    • dysentery
    • cholera
    • hepatitis
    • typhus
    increased host habitat availability & displacement of humans to areas where inadequate sanitation and temporary high-density living promote disease
    Ohl & Tapsell 2000 Br Med J 321:1167-1168; Ivers & Ryan 2006 Curr Op Infect Dis19:408-414
  • Mellin et al. 2010 Glob EcolBiogeog19:212
  • 6
    5
    log variance
    4
    3
    2
    2.5
    3
    3.5
    4
    log mean abundance
    Taylor’s Power Law (TPL)
    Relationship between log-transformed abundances (N) and temporal variance (s2) = line with a slope of 2
    deviations from TPL:
    Kilpatrick & Ives (2003) – Nature
    TPL slope decreases as the strength of competition between species increases
  • 3.0 ± 0.4
    3.1 ± 0.4
    2.2 ± 0.4
    2.0 ± 0.3
    1.7 ± 0.3
    1.5 ± 0.3
    Reef isolation
    Reef area
    Mellin et al. 2010 Ecology doi:10.1890/10-0267.1
  • Mellin et al. 2010 Ecology doi:10.1890/10-0267.1
    • natural forest loss
    2005-1990 D/ha
    • natural habitat conversion
    human-modified landcover/total landcover
    • marine captures
    1990-2005 fish, whales, seals/EEZ km
    • fertiliser use
    NPK/ha arable land
    • water pollution
    biochemical oxygen demand/total renewable water resources
    • carbon emissions
    forestry, land-use change, fossil fuels/km2
    • biodiversity threat
    Red List threatened birds, mammals, amphibians/listed species
    Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
  • Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
  • Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
  • ENVIRONMENTAL
    KUZNETS CURVE
    environmental damage
    per capita prosperity
    Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
  • Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
    • Barry Brook University of Adelaide
    • Julian CaleyAIMS
    • XingliGiamPrinceton University
    • Mark MeekanAIMS
    • Camille MellinUniversity of Adelaide/AIMS
    • Kelvin PehUniversity of Leeds
    • Navjot S. SodhiNational University of Singapore
    • Ian WarkentinMemorial University
    corey.bradshaw@adelaide.edu.au
    www.adelaide.edu.au/directory/corey.bradshaw
    ConservationBytes.com
    © Tiantian Zhang, Good50x70.org