A World of Hurt - Research Tuesday 2010

A World of Hurt
Professor Corey J. A. Bradshaw
The Environment Institute &
South Australian Research & Development Institute
Global death count of
environmental degradation
© WWF

the Anthropocene mass extinction event
extinction synergies
ecosystem services
fine-scale evidence: environment-health
global-scale evidence:
sick environment = sick people
© WWF

> 4 million protists
16600 protozoa
75000-300000helminth parasites
1.5million fungi
320000 plants
4-6 million arthropods
> 6500 amphibians
> 30000 fishes
10000 birds
> 5000 mammals

99 % of ALL species that have ever existed...
EXTINCT
species lifespan = 1-10 M years
Ordovician (490-443 MYA)
Devonian (417-354 MYA)
Permian (299-250 MYA)
Triassic (251-200 MYA)
Cretaceous (146-64 MYA)
Anthropocene
extinction rate 100-10000× background
© Tiantian Zhang, Good50x70.org
Crutzen 2002 Nature 415:23; Bradshaw & Brook 2009 J Cosmol2:221-229

Bradshaw et al. 2009 Trends Ecol Evol24:541-548
Bradshaw et al. 2009 Front Ecol Environ 7:79-87
1,011,000 km2 lost 2000-2005 (3.1 %; 0.6 %/year)
highest in boreal biome (60 %)
humid tropics next (Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia)
dry tropics next highest (Australia, Brazil, Argentina)
N.A. greatest proportional lost by continent
Nationally, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, DR Congo
Hansen et al. 2010 PNAS
doi:10.1073/pnas.0912668107
Barson et al. 2000 Land Cover
Change in Australia, Bur RurSci
© A. Prokopec

IUCN RED LIST OF THREATENED SPECIES www.iucnredlist.org
21 % of all known mammals
30 % of all known amphibians
12 % of all known birds
35 % of conifers & cycads
17 % of sharks
27 % of reef-building corals
threatened with extinction

Sodhi et al. 2008 PLoS One 3:e1636

Sodhi, Brook & Bradshaw 2007 Tropical Conservation Biology Wiley-Blackwell
log % forest remaining (km-2)
log human population density (km-2)

Halpern et al. 2008 Science 319:948-952

invasive species and starfish outbreaks
bleaching
deforestation, soil erosion, sediment & nutrient loading
destructive fishing practices
overfishing

Field et al. 2009 Fish & Fisheries 10:323-328

Evil quartet
habitat destruction
over-exploitation
introduced species
extinction cascades
Diamond 1984 Extinctions Chicago University Press

Brook et al. 2008 Trends Ecol Evol25:453-460

Evil quintet
Evil sextet
habitat destruction
over-exploitation
introduced species
extinction cascades
climate change
synergies
Brook et al. 2008 Trends Ecol Evol25:453-460

justification to maintain healthy ecosystems is intangible because it seems unrelated to personal well-being
© Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

reduce desertification
maintain soils
crop pollination
seed dispersal
food provision
water purification
fuel provision
fibre provision
climate regulation
flood regulation
disease regulation
waste decomposition/detoxification
nutrient cycling
soil formation
primary production
pharmaceutical sources
cultural appreciation (aesthetic, spiritual, educational, recreational…)
€153 billion/year
fisheries: €50 billion/year
€50 billion lost/year
land-based ecosystem loss €545 billion by 2010
> €14 trillion/year lost by 2050
Cost of Policy Inaction (COPI):
The case of not meeting the 2010 biodiversity target.
European Commission

1990-2000
~100,000 people killed
320 million people displaced
total reported damages > US$1151 billion
Bradshaw et al. 2007 Glob Change Biol13:2379-2395

schistosomiasis
malaria
leptospirosis
dysentery
cholera
hepatitis
typhus
increased host habitat availability & displacement of humans to areas where inadequate sanitation and temporary high-density living promote disease
Ohl & Tapsell 2000 Br Med J 321:1167-1168; Ivers & Ryan 2006 Curr Op Infect Dis19:408-414

Does a sick environment make sick people?
© http://tropicaltoxic.blogspot.com

physician-assessed morbidity declines with more green spaces near Dutch patients
Maas et al. 2009 J EpidemiolComm Health 63:967-973
dioxin-poisoning accident in Milan – increased circulatory disease, lymphoma, pulmonary disease & diabetes 25 years later
Consonni et al. 2008 Am J Epidemiol167:847-858
low water quality, poor sanitation & indoor air pollution from household solid fuels increased child mortality and reduced life expectancy in Mexico
Stevens et al. 2009 Proc NatlAcadSci USA 105:16860-16865
malaria-vector mosquito bite rates 278× higher in deforested sites in Amazon
Vittor et al. 2006 Am J Trop Med Hyg74:3-11
Anopheline mosquito density  after deforestation in 60% of 60 studies over past century; 70 % of cases  incidence of malaria
Yasuoka & Levins 2007 Am J Trop Med Hyg76:450-460

habitat conversion/CO2 emissions
- transmission of infectious zoonoses across forest-agriculture boundaries
fertilisers
- nitrate intake & cancer
- water contamination
- water acidification
- toxic algae blooms
- cholera outbreaks
-  mosquito disease vectors
air & water quality
- toxins/pollutants
- pathogens
- particulates
Butler 2004 Health and Forests Earthscanpp 13-33
Peoples et al. 2004 Agriculture and the Nitrogen Cycle Island Presspp 53-69
McMichael et al. 2008 Br Med J 336:191-194; Smith et al. 2000 Proc NatlAcadSci USA 97:13286-13293; Pope et al. 2009 N Engl J Med 360:376-386; Finlayson-Pitts & Pitts 1997 Science 276:1045-1051; Pope et al.2004 Circulation 109:71-77
© N.D. Kim, Strange Matter www.lab-initio.com

City Development Index www.unchs.org
Ecological Footprint www.footprintnetwork.org
Environmental Performance Index epi.yale.edu
Environmental Sustainability Index sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu
Genuine Savings Index worldbank.org
Human Development Index hdr.undp.org
Living Planet Index www.panda.org
Well-Being Index www.well-beingindex.com
Environmental Impact Rank
Böhringer & Joachim 2007 Ecol Econ 63:1-8

Environmental Performance Index epi.yale.edu

http://epi.yale.edu

natural forest loss
2005-1990 D/ha
natural habitat conversion
human-modified landcover/total landcover
marine captures
1990-2005 fish, whales, seals/EEZ km
fertiliser use
NPK/ha arable land
water pollution
biochemical oxygen demand/total renewable water resources
carbon emissions
forestry, land-use change, fossil fuels/km2
biodiversity threat
Red List threatened birds, mammals, amphibians/listed species
Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440

“I anticipate that the anti-science crowd will be screeching and howling with indignation when they read this one.”
“This is such BS, China is WAY worse then the U.S.”
“This researcher is a waste ...”
“This article is crap.”
“Can we really depend on some study when the Chinese could have funded this or maybe some group who was angry at the US and Brazil for whatever? I highly doubt the accuracy of the findings. Looks like the Treehuggers are at it again.”
“Shame on you Australia !!! I guess your dying great Barrior[sic] reef is America's fault too!!!!”
“here we go again. I'm so frickin' sick of these watermelons (green on the outside, red (communist) on the inside) treehuggers. The only f*^king green I care about is made of paper and folds.”

DATA
Human health: World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease database
Environment: - Environmental Combination Index (adapted from Yale Env Performance Index)
- Proportional Environmental Impact rank (Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440)
- natural habitat conversion proportion (Global Land Cover 2000 dataset)
- air/water quality (Yale Environmental Performance Index)
- NPK fertiliser use/area arable land (FAOSTAT database)
- CO2 emissions (Climate Analysis Indicators tool)
Control: - human population size (United Nations Common Database)
- purchasing-power parity-adjusted GNI (World Resources Institute)
- health expenditure (WHO Statistical Information System)

DATA
Human health: WHO Global Burden of Disease database
Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY) - years of life lost due to premature mortality and healthy years of life lost due to disability
Infant Mortality (male) – 2004 mortality per 1000 live births
Life Expectancy at birth (male) – 2004
Diarrhoea deaths among children < 5 years (2000)
Malaria deaths among children < 5 years (2000)
Deaths due to Cardiovascular Disease (2002 age-standardised per 10,000)
Deaths due to Cancers (2002 age-standardised per 10,000)

S
b
ENVIRONMENTAL COMBINATION INDEX
e
P
http://epi.yale.edu

10 %  ECI   mINFM 7.0/1000 live births
 mLE 1.9 years
http://epi.yale.edu

S
b
PROPORTIONALENVIRONMENTAL INDEX RANK
e
P

S
b
ALL DISEASE
e
P

ALL DISEASE

S
b
INFECTIOUS DISEASE
e
P

INFECTIOUS DISEASE

S
b
NON-INFECTIOUS DISEASE
e
P

NON-INFECTIOUS DISEASE

10 %  water quality   infant mortality 3.4/1000 live births
 > 946,000 extra infant deaths/year§
  1.6 years life expectancy
10 %  air quality   2.0 cancer deaths/100,000
 > 132,900 extra cancer deaths/year§
10 %  pcCO2 emissions  infant mortality 0.4/1000 live births
 > 11,700 extra infant deaths/year§
§assuming 21.2 births/1000 population & human population 6.5 billion

countries > median pcGNI
countries < median population density

habitat is degraded  disease spreads, but country improves economically  healthcare improves  better state of health
habitat is degraded  spread of zoonotic disease/pollutants/pathogens  state of health declines
country is poor/population is high  drives habitat degradation; country is poor  also drives poor healthcare  state of health declines
© WWF

heavy species loss not seen since Cretaceous
losing essential ecosystem services
despite enormous variation & leakage, clear environment-human health signal among countries
more than just water/air pollution, but likely strongest direct mechanisms
different mechanisms operating on different disease pathways
> 60 % of EIDs caused by zoonotic pathogens, of which > 70% derive from wildlife
Increasing fragmentation & penetration by humans risks  probabilities of novel disease emergence and spread
© WWF

Guo-Jing Yang
Jiangsu Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Wuxi, PR China
Barry W. Brook
The Environment Institute, The University of Adelaide
Xiao-Nong Zhou
National Institute of Parasitic Disease, China Centre for
Disease Control, Shanghai, PR China
Anthony J. McMichael
National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health
The Australian National University
Colin D. Butler
National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health
The Australian National University
XingliGiam
Princeton University, USA
Navjot S. Sodhi
National University of Singapore
© Tiantian Zhang, Good50x70.org
corey.bradshaw@adelaide.edu.au
www.adelaide.edu.au/directory/corey.bradshaw
ConservationBytes.com

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ENVIRONMENTAL
KUZNETS CURVE
environmental damage
per capita prosperity

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A World of Hurt - Research Tuesday 2010

by Conservation Bytes on May 19, 2010

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