How to Make Better Decisions Managing Disasters: Delphi Decision Maker - Real Time, Online Collaboration

A Real Time Online Delphi Decision System, V 2.0: Crisis Management Support during Extreme EventsA module contribution to
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Connie White Murray Turoff Roxanne Hiltz
Jacksonville State University New Jersey Institute of Technology
Jacksonville, Alabama, USA Newark, New jersey, USA

http://demo.sahanapy.org
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How to make better decisions managing disasters

Lithia Springs, Georgia, 2009WICKED PROBLEMS
Chaos
Time Critical
High Stress
Information Overload
Lack of Resources
Lack of Information Situational Assessment Uncertainty
Need Feedback
Congested Quarters Disorganization
Who’s In Charge?
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How to organize, manage and prioritize all risk?
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Present Working Environment
Internet Access
Browser – pc or smart phone
Collaboration
Collective Intelligence
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Dynamics of Group Membership
Not all members have to participate in order for results to be ongoing, real time and reflected.
System can be used by members anytime
System can be used from anywhere there is the Internet and a browser- Android phone
Moderator can change who is in the group and modify the individual’s privileges.
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Delphi Technique Characteristicsanonymity feedback single group calculation
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Designed System based on Delphi Technique
Anonymity
Voting is anonymous
Item creation is anonymous
Individual input results in a single group opinion
Users enter opinions as independent ranked list
Sub-item selection, muddling through
Feedback
Scale of results
Visual Interpretation of the data – Comparative Judgment yields more precise representation of expert’s opinion and group’s opinion
Forum Discussion
Interaction between crisis managers
Provides more information
Exposes and resolves ambiguities
Exposes and focuses on true uncertainties for input
Reduces information overload
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Constructs
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Design Science Research1st Iteration: Campus Threat Assessment Agreement
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Severe Weather Top Threat Central Alabama
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Agreement and Disagreement
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Design Science Research2ndIteration: Top Excuses Why Students Miss Midterms

Version 2.0: Five Tools Provided
Problem Management
Add New
View Existing
Add members
Solution List
Generation
Select subgroup of items for consideration
Voting
Input expert opinion through paired comparison
Visual Scale
quick interpretation of data providing more information due to distance between alternatives
Unique Group Creation
4 Roles Supported: moderator, contributor, guest, participant
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Problem Management Tool
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Solution List Generation Tool
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Item Selection: Muddling Through
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Voting Tool: paired comparisons
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Reasons behind usingPaired Comparisons for Voting
High stress
Information overload
Memory capacity
Sleep deprivation
Paired Comparisons provide a more accurate reflection of the expert’s opinion with > 7 items in current memory.
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Scale of ResultsThurstone’s Law of Comparative Judgment
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Thurstone’s Law of Comparative Judgment
Visual interpretation of information reduces information overload, quicker to interpret
Better than a priority ranked list of equal intervals in that each solution is in proximity to the other solutions indicating ‘how much more’ one solution is preferred to another by the group.
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Groups and MembershipRoles
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Using Experts Decreases Uncertainty
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Need Practitioner’s Input
Need Large Groups of Experts to Test System
Can this be used during any phase of EM?
Mitigation
Preparedness
Response
Recovery
What exercises/problem types should be used to test the system?
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Future Modifications
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Normalization of Scale
Reduce total number of paired comparisons
Transitivity
What changes need to be made so that this will work in the real world?
Other suggestions of additional tools needed?

Questions? Comments?
Play around with the system at:
http://delphi.sahanafoundation.org/
For additional help contact: Connie White
connie.m.white@gmail.com
THANK YOU
Special Thanks to the Sahana Foundation
In particular: Fran Boon, site mentor
Reza Mohammadi, program developer
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How to Make Better Decisions Managing Disasters: Delphi Decision Maker - Real Time, Online Collaboration

by Connie White on Mar 27, 2010

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How to Make Better Decisions Managing Disasters: Delphi Decision Maker - Real Time, Online Collaboration Presentation Transcript